www.politicofcanada.blogspot.com

I'm not as pessimistic on Egypt's future on the long run

The election of the Muslim Brotherhood may not be our cup of tea but there is not much comparison that can be drawn with the Revolution of 79.

To begin with this revolution was leaderless where as the one in Iran was led by Khomeiny.

Morocco also elected a Muslim traditionalist who was named Prime Minister.

The new President may indeed modify some of Egypt's domestic policies introducing laws which could modify a little the secular nature of the constitution but Egypt now has a thriving public opinion and society is far more heterogenous politically speaking than ever in it's history.

What could change and create trouble is Egypt's relationship with Israel and the support it can bring to the Palestinian cause and friendly relations with Iran. But it won't be able to cross the red lines with the Army keeping an eye open.

Egypt is likely to evolve like Turkey. In a generation time I am confident the egyptians will elect a secular President. 

On the short run however the islamists can indeed create unnecessary aliances with anti western groups or rogue nations like Iran but I doubt it can follow such a policy on the long run given that this nation lives essentially on Tourism. It needs foreign currencies otherwise it will only create unemployement and that will backfire at some point.