Green Revolution will come

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Abarmard
by Abarmard
05-Nov-2009
 

The Islamic Republic is taking a wrong path. They are becoming more centralized in power, which is good news for the revolutionary minded people and bad news for the reformists. For a few months now I am holding a theory that Iran is headed towards a absolute dictatorial state with no hope of turning back. To do so they have alienated some of the population to a point that for the first time in Islamic Republic history, demonstrations will not be an easy task for the system to control. And as many are aware, demonstrations happen regularly in Iran. Based on my theory, this will also end gradually as the system distances itself from the population in order to rule with an iron fist.

Some might argue that the system had always behaved as such and the recent events are nothing new or unexpected. There is a lot of room for argument there, as the major figures within the system had turned their political views toward the demands of different classes within the Iranian society. For time being let's stay focused on the topic of the future of the Islamic Republic and the challenges they will face.

A year ago I would argue that it is the US that will not have relations with Iran and not the other way around. The logic is simple, Iranian system with all its internal flaws was challenging the Western governments and perhaps providing a possible home grown ideological option for the future of the dictatorial and politically dependent Middle Eastern countries. To what extent this idea holds true, we will not know for some time, however the actions of the Western nations and particularly the United States could be an indicator that the Islamic Republic was more than just a dictatorial system that the US disagreed with. We come back to this later.

As mentioned at the beginning, the current developments in Iran should be good news for the revolutionary minded people. The logic behind this statement drives from centralization of the Iranian regime. Once a system becomes centralized the absolute power and enemy (of the people) becomes clearly known. The Islamic Republic had originally confused the entire world about its system and the center of power. The US intelligence until recently was unclear whether the true power of the government is in the hand of Khamenei, or Khamenei is working for a bigger boss. Perhaps even today the answer is not fully clear since up to this point the absolute change of centralization of the system has not taken full shape. As time progresses this puzzle will show its identity.  Once the enemy is known the society will figure how to best fight him. In this case the reformists would join the movement, since they have been cut off as an option in that system.

The Green movement was not a revolutionary or reformist movement. Arguably, the term "movement" is not an ideal phrase to describe the after election events. A political movement has clear goals and develops leadership that can carry on those objectives. The events in Iran are well beyond Mr. Mousavi or Karubi and I would argue that they would not want to see where the Green could actually take them. They will become irrelevant if the Green does form a political movement. How can a political movement be formed?
Firstly a movement needs to provide support to answer demands for the working class. It needs to have direction and clearly define the most important value (end of the line) they want to represent. Most importantly, a movement should map the actions necessary to unite the opposition forces towards victory. And victory, of course, needs to be defined. These conditions are not met at this point.
There is no need to forcefully create a movement. Similar to language developments and social trends, a movement will shape itself, naturally.

Back to the Iran-US relations. Since Iran, similar to all the neighboring dictatorial states, will need military, intelligence (savak like), and controlled information, they will form a system that is less reliant on its population support. Better relations with the West will fulfill the lack of internal security. The US can now offer security and support as it has for Iran's neighbors. And the Islamic Republic will take it. The US change of behavior is only because Iran is not a political/social and influential option/player for the rest of the region (anymore). The Iranian status is now downgraded to just a dictatorial state. That has never threatened any regimes in the West. Makes sense for the West and the world to work closely with Iran and offer their support. All the speeches of the conservative Mullahs against the West and the US will diminish by time, shorter than we might think.

Interesting to note, that unlike what most people around the globe think, the West and the US are not concerned with a dictatorial system but their benefits alone, naturally. When Iran had a chance to develop into a homegrown democracy, the world demonized them, and now the world seem to gradually taking a softer position in regards to Iran! Yet Iran is more militarized, less democratic and for the people in Iran things have gotten worse. Therefore, don't rely on anyone but Iranians for the future change.

For now, welcome to new Iran. Yet another failed movement (1979) and defeat for the people of Iran; but the spark of green will be a revolution that no one yet knows its direction within the coming decades.

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Oct 23, 2012
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more from Abarmard
 
Abarmard

Niloufar Parsi

by Abarmard on

Good points.

Thanks


Niloufar Parsi

Abarmard khan

by Niloufar Parsi on

very interesting read.

the next rounds of parliamentary and presidential elections may be important milestones. some predict that larijani is likely to become the next president. but it is hard to see how this would be a smooth process.

in terms of iran's strategic relations, i agree with your points to Azadeh. iran's regional and global standing is significantly deflated since the re-election of ahmadinejad. IRI has no revolution left to export anywhere. what is left of the IRI will be a useful ally to the US' agenda especially in afghanistan and iraq. at the same time, israel has been sidelined with the growing likelihood of a nuclear deal. as for the question of oil, western dominance of this sector is in fast retreat. iran and other producers have powerful allies in china, india and russia. this will become increasingly pronounced with a looming trade war between china and usa.


Abarmard

True, Azadeh

by Abarmard on

Is it even possible that the system will bend its knees towards people's demands? Yes, Possibilities are endless. The probabilities vary.

Happy Saturday


Azadeh Azad

Maybe, Abarmard :-)

by Azadeh Azad on

However, there are so many other factors, including unpredictable "incidences,"  both internal and external, that could spill over what we already know and change the expected course of Iran's future. Political predictions are tricky and often inaccurate, although stimulating for the mind.

Azadeh


Abarmard

Dear Azadeh

by Abarmard on

The Islamic Republic's support for Hezbollah will change politically. I believe that gradually the moral and political support that is rooted in the ideas of Khomaini will shrink smaller, but perhaps not totally diminish. I do not see any reason for the Islamic Republic to lose what it has as a security card against any possible Israeli aggression. They will try to keep their important assets, yet negotiate with the West to assure them of no "sudden" activity.

Keep in mind that Hezbollah is not in total control by the Islamic Republic!

The Islamic Republic is a name, you may call it people's republic. Names of governments don't change their true identity. It is as secular as any Islamic secular state!

Sepah is a military but also a capitalistic entity, and as any capitalistic organization around the globe, wants to eliminate competition for its survivor. In any bargain, if the IRCG realizes that there are higher opportunities than threats from entering the global market, will do so. Otherwise (and most probable) they will make a deal with the US and keep it quiet. Their bigger concern is their security rather than sanctions and economy. I would argue that they will try hard to keep sanctions in place since that's the market field that they are capable of gaining the most and blaming the West (for a lack of a better economy).


Anonymouse

Mrs he changed about a month ago! I was 'shocked' too!

by Anonymouse on

Maz Jobrani's face is a little slimmer and he also has some facial hair! But I can see they smile the same way ;-) 

Everything is sacred.


TheMrs

This is Abarmard? It took

by TheMrs on

This is Abarmard? It took me a minute to recognize him. Until I got to the comments I thought it was Maz Jobrani. What's with the avatar change? This is abarmardeh ghodratmand? Are you sure? He's COMPLETELY bald? So that was a cap on the previous avatar. This is too much for one single blog. I need to sit down.

On another note, maybe we shouldn't over intellectualize things. Good one abarmard.


Azadeh Azad

New Iran & the future Iran-US relation

by Azadeh Azad on

Dear Abarmad,

you say:

"Better relations with the West will fulfill the lack of internal security. The US can now offer security and support as it has for Iran's neighbors. And the Islamic Republic will take it. The US change of behavior is only because Iran is not a political/social and influential option/player for the rest of the region (anymore). The Iranian status is now downgraded to just a dictatorial state. That has never threatened any regimes in the West. Makes sense for the West and the world to work closely with Iran and offer their support."

Are you stating that the new Military Dictatorship of Iran will be devoid of Islamic ideology and will no more deliver arms to the Hamas, Hezbollahs, and various "insurgencies" in the neighbouring countries in exchange for "security and support" from the USA? That seems unlikely to me.

Also, there is no doubt the US Administrations *love* to have friendly relations with the regimes that are dictatorial in a clear-cut and unambiguous way. But are you saying that the financial ambitions of the foundations and industries belonging to the Sepah chiefs/ Pasdaran / Basijis/ Imam Mehdiists will be aligned with the interests of, for instance, the Big Oil that plans to construct pipelines along Afghanistan towards the oil-rich Caspian Sea regions? I think not.

What do you think?

Azadeh


kharmagas

Abarmard

by kharmagas on

I don't mean to criticize you, but I was wondering when was the last time you were in Iran?


default

Ananymouse

by KouroshS on

The Students who campaigned for mousavi were just way too young to remember anything about his time, his past 20 some years ago!

Do you not think that is a fact?


oktaby

Abarmard, your theory about absolut dictatorship is correct.

by oktaby on

Koodetah was no accident //iranian.com/main/blog/oktaby-0.  I would only rephrase your opening sentence by changing a 'wrong path' to 'the only path', as once koodetah was initiated, there was no turning back and the koodetachi knew it. hence, 'setade Koodetah' is the extremist of the extreme. Even without the Koodetah the islamic regime had reached a dead end on several fronts and that is even before the coming economic kenundrum (AN's unsupportable feeding of the edges to destroy the middle, funded by high oil prices) that will have hit hard a year or two down the road regardless. The war AN & co want is another wild card.

OKtaby


Anonymouse

Anahid jaan everyone knows what Mousavi has done in the past

by Anonymouse on

Mousavi's past is not the issue and has been discussed in length.  It's not as if our educated university students who campaigned and voted for him during the election and after the election were not aware. Nor was it forgotten by the older generation who also voted.

The issue is we think him risking everything is nothing. Yes he may back down completely one day and that day will be a milestone but we shouldn't be cheering for his resignation. Finding people "in places" who are willing to stand up is not easy. We need to keep not just the movement alive, but the opposition.

Everything is sacred.


Anahid Hojjati

Dear Anonymouse, Moussavi owes Iranian people much more

by Anahid Hojjati on

Dear Anonymouse, you wrote in your comment:"They may pay for this with their lives.  You may think it is easy being Khatami, Mousavi or Karoubi.  What value do we have for them?" 

When Moussavi was prime minister, thousands of political prisoners got executed.  So you could argue that what Moussavi has done so far is the least he has to do if there is any chance for him to be judged in favorable light by history.  Karroubi and Khatami don't have this issue to the same degree.  Especially Karroubi has shown bravery and will be judged as a national hero in future if he keeps opposing he regime as he has in past few months.


Anonymouse

Abarmard jaan as we say: the problem once solved is easy!

by Anonymouse on

Of course some place some time some how things will be better and Mousavi and Karoubi will eventually die!

We need to stick to what is working now.  Right now we need voices and we need leaders to stand up and we need to acknowledge them when they stand up, instead of saying oh well, they are out of it.

They may pay for this with their lives.  You may think it is easy being Khatami, Mousavi or Karoubi.  What value do we have for them?  Just that they've served their purpose and should now be tossed (not by the regime but by us, mind you) aside.  Oh well, everything is just that easy I suppose.

Everything is sacred.


Abarmard

What would Zizek say?

by Abarmard on

He is not a good writer, but makes his point clear:

 

//www.rokhdaad.com/spip.php?article205


Ari Siletz

I fear you may be right

by Ari Siletz on

But I hope you are wrong.

Also,

"...a movement needs to provide support to answer demands for the working class." Thank you for bringing this up.


Abarmard

Dear Anonymouse

by Abarmard on

My father has seen a few great social movement in his time. It's rare to have such active society. The system will gain control in the coming years. The control on media will increase and a true movement will form. I estimated decades to show that it will take time. Where it will take or what it is (That movement), it's not known. It's beyond Karubi, Mousavi or my imagination. It is a theory, since it's the future. My prediction is based on the Iranian behavior and their search for democracy.

In my past writing about the election events, I concluded:

"If the system continues on its current path of humiliating the free minded and modern citizens, then the possibilities of a more open, less intrusive and democratic Iran will instead give room to a more invasive, dictatorial and heavily censored media. This would be a natural path since the government would not be able to answer a large portion of its society’s demands. Naturally, the underground press, anti system organizations and oppositions would blossom. One would expect the end of the system in the long run. The mistake that the Islamic Republic’s Sepah has done is the miscalculation that did not consider the people’s factor. If they do not change their behavior, which is very likely, then their end is around the corner as the reformists have warned (Since Khatami’s presidency)."

Please keep in mind that it's not the level of anger from the system that changes the demands of the population! but the possibilities and hope that people have about positive outlook of their future. 

 


Anonymouse

Abarmard jan some used to say Shah was/could've been more brutal

by Anonymouse on

Abarmard jan some used to say Shah was/could've been more brutal and my response was/is that how much more brutal could he have been.  I mean he did all he could and it was brutal enough.

So same goes here, it's been brutal enough.  But in response to your argument that brutality yields revolution, my response is where can you cite such an example?  Other than Iran. In many countries more brutality had yieleded military juntas with no chance of revolution.

Revolution ke bache bazi nist! After the Iranian revolution they closed the door on revolutions!  No?!

The reforms are gone for good, is another "theory"!  BTW do you mean polarized or pluralized?

Everything is sacred.


IRANdokht

you're right Anonymouse

by IRANdokht on

I am not downplaying the role of Karrubi and Mousavi, but I don't see them in a crucial leadership role either, but you're right:

We can disagree and make different predictions, but as long as we're supporting the Iranians and trusting their decisions without trying to impose our own wishes and agendas, all is good! :o)

Yes that was the video and I saw the green paint one too. 

IRANdokht


Anonymouse

ID jaan well I don't agree but that's ok. Time will tell.

by Anonymouse on

I don't agree that the involvement of Karoubi and Mousavi is hindering anything. I believe and as supported by many slogans we hear on youtube videos, that these 2 are still the leaders of this green movement.

I don't know what will happen if they're killed or arrested.  I believe as long as they support the green movement and have not given up on their leadership roles, they count.

I do not believe the green movement will become "revolutionary" with the disappearance of reform movement leaders.

These are what I called multiple theories.  Again I appreciated Abarmard's views on some elements but not the whole "theories".  We just have different opinions but time will tell and at some point hopefully we can come together and that's what really matters and what I mean by not import/exporting people!

I can't see the video now but if it is the one where people walk over Khamanei yes I saw that and it is great and I hope to see more.  Earlier, few weeks ago there was a picture where people had thrown green paint on Khamanei's billboard!

Everything is sacred.


Abarmard

Dear Anonymouse

by Abarmard on

Again you make some valid points here.

I don't disagree with you and believe that there are many possibilities. But it seems to me that the regime is moving to a centralized command similar to any dictatorial systems. If so, then we can assume what's the outcome.

Also my point was that Iranian society TODAY is pluralized, in other words, no one side can claim that they speak for the population.

You are correct, I am assuming that the reforms are gone for good, and the only way to save the rights of the people is ANOTHER revolution. I would love to be wrong in this. The system certainly has choices to change course. Possibilities are minute, but there. Hope that you are right and I am wrong.

Irandokht said it well.


IRANdokht

if I may...

by IRANdokht on

Dear Anonymouse,

Abarmard is actually very reasonable in the way he's analysing and predicting the changes. 

Right now, the presence and the involvement of the reformists and their clergy is actually giving the greens less of a revolutionary goals and they're still speaking of and limiting demands to "a fair election". The regime has been successful in reducing the demonstrators from millions to mere thousands by cracking down on them hard. But once the green movement is less of a reform movement and they do not speak from the safety of being more catholic than the pope or more khomeini doost than the IRI, the regime  will definitely show less inhibition in their crack downs. They can easily call everyone kaafar and their blood hallaal!

That is when the green movement will turn more revolutionary with more clear anti government stance.

I think that sounds like a very possible outcome, even if pessimistic in your view.

Yesterday we started seeing a lot more anti-Khamenei sentiments, that's probably why Mousavi and Karrubi were less visible and I think that is a good indication of where the movement is going.

Did you see this video:  //www.youtube.com/watch?v=67CHF49BB0o

IRANdokht


Red Wine

...

by Red Wine on

A very very good choice Abarmard jan ... Nush-e Jan my dear friend :=) .


Anonymouse

Abarmard jaan the population was/is not pluralized, otherwise

by Anonymouse on

Abarmard jaan the population was/is not pluralized and all divided and everything, otherwise there would not have been a revolution.  Sure there are some differences but you do not resolve those differences by import/exporting new people.  Right?! 

These are the same people.  People are people.  Many who were/are different find their differences in keeping their jobs or various other reasons.  But when the time comes, like in 1979 or 2009, they rally behind the same ideals.

They know what they want.  It's a little harder now than in 1979, but all roads does not lead to Rome (Qom in this case ;-).

The reason I said pessimist is that you seem to argue that 1) this regime will kill the movement with Iron fist then 2) reform movement will die then 3) "revolutionaries" will gain strength then 4) all hell will break loose.  You're mixing too much and too many theories.

Just keep it simple and trust the Iranian people know what they're doing.  Many (not you) in this website, do not have a clue yet they throw hissy fits by the minute! To no avail of course!

I think there are elements of your article that are valid. 

Everything is sacred.


Anahid Hojjati

Excellent blog, Abarmard. Points you raise all make good sense

by Anahid Hojjati on

Dear Abarmard, These days, I see so many blogs with weird ideas such as changing language in Iran that when I see an intelligent blog, I get overjoyed.  Thanks for writing your blog. Your ideas and opinions as exprssed in your blog make good sense. 


Abarmard

Good point

by Abarmard on

Anonymouse I agree that the slogans and demands of the people are similar to the 1979 revolution, however the "movement" is not the same movement. After the election the lights were shined for the people and population saw how divided and political (pluralized) the Iranian society truly is. 

The next step will come when people join forces and demand their rights. Interesting how we have struggled to reach a democratic Iran for the past century far ahead of our neighbors, and still at point zero, governmentally (not socially). I am not pessimistic, I am saying that it will take time. 

Thanks Dokhtar e Iranzamin. Happy Thursday :) 

Thank you Mr. Red Wine. I recently tried Franciscan (cabrenet-2003) and enjoyed it very much. If you can find it, give it a shot. 


Red Wine

Abarmard Aziz

by Red Wine on

مثل همیشه جالب و خواندنی نوشتید... به مورد استفاده رسید.

مدتی‌ بود که شما را رویت نمی‌کردیم،از زیارت مجدد شما بسیار خرسندیم.

پاینده باشید و تندرست.

 


Anonymouse

Abarmard jaan your theory is all pessimistic. In ke nashod!

by Anonymouse on

The ideals of the green movement are clear.  They are the same ideals of the 1979 revolution, Freedom, Justice and the pursuit of happyness!

All the mistakes that lead to the hijacking of the revolution is now for everyone to see.  As the movement gains more strength, as evidenced since June, the lines will be better defined.

Everything is sacred.


IRANdokht

This is very well written/argued

by IRANdokht on

I have to agree with you on many points here. You've explained it well, whether on the subject of the greens and Mousavi/Karrubi role or the support of the US and the world vs how democratic a gov is, you've been very accurate, logical and sensible.

Thanks!  

IRANdokht