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When All You Have is a Hammer...
09-Aug-2009
For most of the month of August, U.S. Congress will be on recess. Consider this the calm before the storm.
Most in Washington are aware that September will bring with it the biggest push for Iran sanctions in years. AIPAC has been lobbying for months on the Iran Refined Petroleum Sanctions Act (IRPSA), and on September 10 the Conference of Presidents of Major American Jewish Organizations will kick off a massive nationwide lobbying effort, which they compare to the "Save Darfur" movement. All of this will culminate at the end of the month when, conveniently enough, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad arrives in New York for the UN General Assembly.
Yes, right around the time Ahmadinejad is at the podium in the UN, Congress is expected to impose what it calls "crippling sanctions" on Iran's economy. The plan is to blockade Iran's foreign supplies of gasoline, hoping that an increase in the price per gallon at the pump will cause the Iranian people to rise up and demand a halt to Iran's nuclear program.
But this plan has number of obvious flaws.
First, the Iranian people have already risen up against the government's hardline leadership. What we have witnessed in Iran for the last two months is unprecedented. To think that marginally higher gas prices will mean anything to a population willing to risk their lives for freedom and democracy is at once naïve and hubristic. According to Juan Cole, imposing broad sanctions on Iran will likely only destroy Iranian civil society and bolster the state's repressive apparatus--as it did in Iraq.
What's more, even if the Iranian people were to demand that the government halt its enrichment program--which they wouldn't, since the vast majority of Iranians support Iran's right to peaceful nuclear technology--does anyone think that the government will actually go along with it? Has Tehran been particularly responsive to the wishes of its citizens lately? No, in fact, that is what these people are fighting for each and every day: to have their voices heard.
Next, even if the sanctions were effective in harming the Iranian economy, there isn't a single historical example of economic sanctions translating into a desirable change in the Iranian government's behavior. Just as the hardliners are resisting their people's calls for change, so too will they refuse to be seen as capitulating to the demands of the West.
So why is Congress fixated on this idea if it doesn't stand a chance of stopping the nuclear program? Some would say that the government has to be punished for the brutality with which it has treated its people. Politicians in Washington were universally outraged by the violence against the Iranian people. And for many lawmakers, this was a time to stand up in support of these brave Iranians.
Senator John McCain spoke passionately from the floor of the US Senate, saying: "The United States of America must, and this body must, affirm our support for fundamental human rights of the Iranian people who are being beaten and killed in the streets of Tehran and other cities around Iran. We are with them."
Republican Mike Pence of Indiana said: "We are bound to support the courageous and decent people in Iran who are struggling for their rights and their freedom."
And even Minority Whip Eric Cantor spoke up, saying: "We must rally the world around the cause of the Iranian people."
But now, almost in the same breath, those same lawmakers are calling for "crippling sanctions" on the Iranian economy. They are quick to mention that Iran imports 40% of its refined petroleum, making that industry Iran's "Achilles heel" so these sanctions will be able to "bring the economy to its knees."
So much for standing with the Iranian people.
What better way to show our support than by casting the common man into financial ruin? Think about who suffers the most in the US when gas prices rise due to shocks--it's the poor. Why would it be any different in Iran? Certainly the elite won't suffer the brunt of these sanctions--the Revolutionary Guards have been getting rich off smuggling sanctioned goods into the country for years. And with Russia and China ready to provide anything the US won't sell to Iran, the mullahs will surely find a way to fill their gas tanks. So that will just leave the poor and middle class to suffer.
Even neoconservative scholar Fred Kagan has acknowledged the real effect of these petroleum sanctions, saying "Look we need to be honest about this: Iranians are going to die if we impose additional sanctions." So despite all their lip-service, it seems that Congress' priorities haven't changed. They are planning to continue the same failed approach to Iran of the last three decades. To them, these petroleum sanctions made sense before Iran's election, and miraculously, they are still our best option after the election.
Iran changed forever on June 12. We are now dealing with a completely altered country, and we would be wise to tailor our policies to reflect that reality. Congress should brainstorm some new ideas for how to support the Iranian people and still protect our security and nonproliferation objectives.
To start, they should throw out these sanctions.
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Please do me a favor and try something new
by vildemose on Sun Aug 09, 2009 11:15 AM PDT""While not all, overwhelming majority or even a minute fraction of Iranians are pro NIAC lobby and its conjoined twin, CASMII lobby, but all the known Islamists/Anti-Semites and their likeminded lefty allies are why is it so? ""
Please try newer slogans. This is becoming verty stale. thanks.
Here is what's awaiting the
by vildemose on Sun Aug 09, 2009 11:09 AM PDTHere is what's awaiting the Reformers:
Amir Taheri is spot on this time despite being a appalling shill for the neocons in the past:
Once that phase was complete, the authorities proceeded to arrest the mid-ranking members of the movement, putting some 200 "tactical ringleaders" under lock and key. Last week, the regime started putting some of them on trial, extracting televised "confessions" from a few of them. The regime is laying the ground for Stalinist-style purges and trials. According to Tehran sources, thousands of government functionaries will soon be asked to sign papers endorsing Ahmadinejad's re-election or face dismissal. Clearly, the aim is to use this so-called "bay'ah" (allegiance) campaign as a pretext for purging the civil and the military and security services.
The next logical step would be to arrest all or some members of the quartet. The regime is already testing the waters and gauging possible international reaction.
The official media have started preparing the public for arresting the top leaders of the movement.
State-controlled newspapers claim to have received telephone calls and letters from their readers calling for Mousavi, Khatami, Karrubi and Rafsanjani to be put on trial as "enemies of Islam."
Pro-Ahmadinejad mullahs, addressing mosque congregations, also call for the "leaders of the sedition" to be brought to justice.
The official news agencies accuse Khatami of being part of "a Freemasonry plot" to secularize the Islamic, and Rafsanjani of being in cahoots with the British to destabilize the country. Karrubi is accused of receiving money from a notorious conman who is in hiding. There are attempts at linking Mousavi with the renegade group Mujahedin Khalq (People's Combatants) who worked for Saddam Hussein during the Iran-Iraq war.
Khamenei himself has accused the four leaders of acting like those "hypocrites" (munafeqin) who built a mosque in Medina with the aim of dividing the newly emergent Islamic "ummah". Official propaganda is also using the language of class warfare against the four dissident leaders. They are labeled as symbols of "the aristocracy of wealth and privilege", men who wear expensive clothes and watches, drive foreign cars, live in sumptuous villas, send their children to Western universities, and own business empires.
The "Tennessee turkey shoot" a la Iranian could get very ugly indeed.
//www.asharq-e.com/news.asp?section=2&id=17683
Sorry, my formatting didn't
by vildemose on Sun Aug 09, 2009 11:00 AM PDTSorry, my formatting didn't work. How do you do a blockquote??
The Democrats have a
by vildemose on Sun Aug 09, 2009 10:59 AM PDTThe Democrats have a democrat POTUS and a democratic majority both in the House and the Senate precisely because of high oil prices (when it was reaching $4). Even the Bible thumpers voted turned against the Repubs and decided to vote with their pockets instead of their "bible".
The Bazar needs to feel the pain in order to side with the people and the reformers provided there are any reformers left. It seems to me that the hardliners have decided to physically eliminate the reformers one by one.
Sanctions just make it more expensive and uncomfortable," said Al Troner, managing director of Asia Pacific Energy Consulting. "That's what you saw with South Africa and to some extent Saddam Hussein's Iraq. The flow would continue but players would take on substantial financial and political risk."
Higher import costs would impact the budget, which could hurt President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Government subsidies make Iran's gasoline among the cheapest in the world. If imports cost more, more of the budget would be spent on those subsidies, leaving less cash to finance Ahmadinejad's populist programmes.
So even if the oil flow continues, sanctions may have the impact that the U.S. and its allies want.
Neta Crawford, a professor of political science at Boston University who studied the effect of oil sanctions against apartheid in South Africa, said even leaky sanctions there strained the economy and fractured the elites' hold on society.
"Sanctions deny them their resource, force them to pay a premium for that resource, and then the cost of evading the embargo just means they don't have the resources to do whatever it was they initially wanted to do," Crawford said.
"Everything they do to evade sanctions becomes a huge tax. It creates these huge grey and black market economies, and people who wouldn't have been empowered become empowered by making a whole lot of money."
//uk.news.yahoo.com/22/20090806/tpl-uk-iran-oil-sanctions-analysis-02bfc7e.html
Q,
by Midwesty on Sun Aug 09, 2009 10:54 AM PDTI agree, it's all about money!
Easy quiz
by Fred on Sun Aug 09, 2009 10:39 AM PDTWhile not all, overwhelming majority or even a minute fraction of Iranians are pro NIAC lobby and its conjoined twin, CASMII lobby, but all the known Islamists/Anti-Semites and their likeminded lefty allies are why is it so?
What is it about these two lobbies that are so attractive to all the members of Anti-Iranian people triumvirate?
That's just great...
by Midwesty on Sun Aug 09, 2009 10:39 AM PDT"AIPAC has been lobbying for months ... Yes, right around the time Ahmadinejad is at the podium in the UN, Congress is expected to impose what it
calls "crippling sanctions" on Iran's economy".
As Iranians will gather to protest against AN at the UN, AIPAC inspired
congressional act will kicks in giving the best excuse for the hardliners
inside Iran to draw a correlation between these two and further tighten the
screw on any independent democratic movement inside Iran.
Normal
0
Blockade is a stupid plan with no chance of success
by Q on Sun Aug 09, 2009 09:49 AM PDTThanks for standing up to ruthless Fascists and their paid agents. Make no mistake. Iranian well being are not what they care about. Sanctions are simply pushed because:
- Oil prices will rise and Saudis + US Oil investors make $Billions.
- Tensions rise, Israel cronies and Friends score $Billions in free US tax payer aid + posponing real peace.
- $Billions are going to be spent on US Military enforcement, just in time to offset $Billions in military contractor losses from pulling out of Iraq.
Thank You NIAC for being the only ones who actually care about Iranians.
aside from the obvious politics...
by Ali Akbar on Sun Aug 09, 2009 06:00 AM PDT