When All You Have is a Hammer...

... Every Iran Problem Looks Like a Nail

Share/Save/Bookmark

When All You Have is a Hammer...
by NIAC
09-Aug-2009
 

For most of the month of August, U.S. Congress will be on recess. Consider this the calm before the storm.

Most in Washington are aware that September will bring with it the biggest push for Iran sanctions in years. AIPAC has been lobbying for months on the Iran Refined Petroleum Sanctions Act (IRPSA), and on September 10 the Conference of Presidents of Major American Jewish Organizations will kick off a massive nationwide lobbying effort, which they compare to the "Save Darfur" movement. All of this will culminate at the end of the month when, conveniently enough, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad arrives in New York for the UN General Assembly.

Yes, right around the time Ahmadinejad is at the podium in the UN, Congress is expected to impose what it calls "crippling sanctions" on Iran's economy. The plan is to blockade Iran's foreign supplies of gasoline, hoping that an increase in the price per gallon at the pump will cause the Iranian people to rise up and demand a halt to Iran's nuclear program.

But this plan has number of obvious flaws.

First, the Iranian people have already risen up against the government's hardline leadership. What we have witnessed in Iran for the last two months is unprecedented. To think that marginally higher gas prices will mean anything to a population willing to risk their lives for freedom and democracy is at once naïve and hubristic. According to Juan Cole, imposing broad sanctions on Iran will likely only destroy Iranian civil society and bolster the state's repressive apparatus--as it did in Iraq.

What's more, even if the Iranian people were to demand that the government halt its enrichment program--which they wouldn't, since the vast majority of Iranians support Iran's right to peaceful nuclear technology--does anyone think that the government will actually go along with it? Has Tehran been particularly responsive to the wishes of its citizens lately? No, in fact, that is what these people are fighting for each and every day: to have their voices heard.

Next, even if the sanctions were effective in harming the Iranian economy, there isn't a single historical example of economic sanctions translating into a desirable change in the Iranian government's behavior. Just as the hardliners are resisting their people's calls for change, so too will they refuse to be seen as capitulating to the demands of the West.

So why is Congress fixated on this idea if it doesn't stand a chance of stopping the nuclear program? Some would say that the government has to be punished for the brutality with which it has treated its people. Politicians in Washington were universally outraged by the violence against the Iranian people. And for many lawmakers, this was a time to stand up in support of these brave Iranians.

Senator John McCain spoke passionately from the floor of the US Senate, saying: "The United States of America must, and this body must, affirm our support for fundamental human rights of the Iranian people who are being beaten and killed in the streets of Tehran and other cities around Iran. We are with them."

Republican Mike Pence of Indiana said: "We are bound to support the courageous and decent people in Iran who are struggling for their rights and their freedom."

And even Minority Whip Eric Cantor spoke up, saying: "We must rally the world around the cause of the Iranian people."

But now, almost in the same breath, those same lawmakers are calling for "crippling sanctions" on the Iranian economy. They are quick to mention that Iran imports 40% of its refined petroleum, making that industry Iran's "Achilles heel" so these sanctions will be able to "bring the economy to its knees."

So much for standing with the Iranian people.

What better way to show our support than by casting the common man into financial ruin? Think about who suffers the most in the US when gas prices rise due to shocks--it's the poor. Why would it be any different in Iran? Certainly the elite won't suffer the brunt of these sanctions--the Revolutionary Guards have been getting rich off smuggling sanctioned goods into the country for years. And with Russia and China ready to provide anything the US won't sell to Iran, the mullahs will surely find a way to fill their gas tanks. So that will just leave the poor and middle class to suffer.

Even neoconservative scholar Fred Kagan has acknowledged the real effect of these petroleum sanctions, saying "Look we need to be honest about this: Iranians are going to die if we impose additional sanctions." So despite all their lip-service, it seems that Congress' priorities haven't changed. They are planning to continue the same failed approach to Iran of the last three decades. To them, these petroleum sanctions made sense before Iran's election, and miraculously, they are still our best option after the election.

Iran changed forever on June 12. We are now dealing with a completely altered country, and we would be wise to tailor our policies to reflect that reality. Congress should brainstorm some new ideas for how to support the Iranian people and still protect our security and nonproliferation objectives.

To start, they should throw out these sanctions.

Share/Save/Bookmark

more from NIAC
che khabar e

IRANdokht

by che khabar e on

Once again you have proved how pathetic you are.  You haven't got a clue how I feel about ANYONE.  Because I don't suck up to you?  don't flatter yourself into thinking that feelings toward YOU equate to feelings towards true Iranians.   But continue that line of slander and I will gladly follow.  No, not gladly because I don't LIKE to wallow in the mud like you but I will.  That line of slander will open a door you don't want to walk through.  Criticizing you or anyone else here does not equate to hating Iranians.  But if that is your reasoning, then PC is 100% right in his assessment of Iranians hating Americans because YOU prove his point by spreading such HATEFUL LIES.  If being critical of someone means hate, then you have proved how much YOU hate Americans.  Be careful.  :-)


che khabar e

annoyingmouse

by che khabar e on

My bad, sir, my bad.  I most sincerely apologize for your misunderstanding of my calling you "mushie". It was meant far more informally/affectionately than you are taking it.  But if you took it as an insult, then I was wrong.  I'm also sorry you're taking my answer as avoiding your question.  I did ask  you to be specific in my answer, did I not?  :-)

Also, I am not that most graceful of men, SCD.  I could never do him justice and I am sorry that you decided to assume and attack HIS character with your assisnation of ME.  Is that the double standards you were speaking of?  :-)

So, exactly what do you think I'm avoiding?  I told you quite specifically that I would answer your questions.  Ask away.

And also.  No one likes to be bullied. Whether it's an Iranian bullying another Iranian or Iranian to an American or vice versa.  I hope you're not suggesting that it's not standard fare on everyone's plate these days.  Are you?

oh, and that "nice american" must not have been so nice after all.  Wasn't he deleted?  :-0 


IRANdokht

Annoyingmouse jan

by IRANdokht on

Absolutely not the Chicago man my friend! 

SCD has got class and he would never hate Iranians like this lady does.

IRANdokht


Annoyingmouse

IRANdokht,

by Annoyingmouse on

Well, I meant just a heads up. I believe he is only an impostor but managed to steal away the subject of this discussion.


Annoyingmouse

che khabar e

by Annoyingmouse on

Away from the point that you shied away from my question and calling me name "mushie", instead, my question was a rhtorical question. I would love to see you in your original name, as a gentelman with a sad chicago pose who begs for sympathy here rather than a bully! That way we could shower you with our mercy. Unfortunately after many years of interacting with Iranians you haven't learned that you can not bully an Iranian.


capt_ayhab

Craig - it must be love

by capt_ayhab on

Let me make it easy for you, since you have so affectionately been bringing my name up in every comment you write.

Before you put my in any list, you have to establish one thing. Do I give a damn about what a racist little man like you thinks about me?

Once you figure that out, you will find out that a racist loud mouth being like you have zero to no effect on my life nor the way I think.

so dude make your list, and check it twice ;-)

-YT 


IRANdokht

Ex-PC

by IRANdokht on

Actually there was one nice American "Joe L." who told us that you do not speak for him.

Your other hamvatan who just joined in so you wouldn't feel alone should count for something too.

Stop pouting now
:o)

IRANdokht


ex programmer craig

che kabar e

by ex programmer craig on

But seperate the good guys from the bad
guys carefully. 

I think I did that. I listed the "bad guys" by name. And I was quite unhappy about having to add Ayhab to that list because I had thought he was a better person than he turend out to be. The rest of them are what I call the "usual suspects" on this website, from years ago. 

I said yesterday at some point that I was disappointed that this had become a shit-on-america thread and that none of the people on this website i've come to like and respect were voicing opposing viewpoints here. And I did issue a warning that I was about to go MARG BAR IRAN here :)

You'll see that you're missing out on a pretty fair
and impartial participation.  This particular commenter is trying to
give you the opportunity to bring it down a notch.  You're getting
defensive and that is leading you to make unnecessary and offensive
comments of your own.  Yes, Q called you a prick and that wasn't nice
but it don't mean you have to return the favor.  Let his attitude and
comments speak for him... not you.  :-)

That's good advice and its advice I've been trying to follow but I really dislike coming to a website that run by and run for Iranian Americans, and seeing so many people dumping on the country that took them in and nobody says anything about it. Yeah, they have free speech. But guess what? So do I.

Anyway, thanks for chiming in here. I appreciate it. You're one of the people on Iranian.com whose opinions I always like to hear. Sorry you are taking heat for it.

 

 


ex programmer craig

It's interesting

by ex programmer craig on

That the only Amercian who isn't Iranian who commented in this thread is subject to so much abuse from Iranians, isn't it? And you all hasten to point out that I don't represent all americans... only thing is, in this thread I actually DO represent all Americans :)

No worries. I don't blame all Iranians for the behavior of a few on this website. I listed by name the people I blame for their abuse towards me and towards the US in general.


IRANdokht

Dear (not-so-)annoyingmouse

by IRANdokht on

I'll have to disagree with you. I don't think anyone reading the comments on this thread would take people's responses to ExPC as a general anti-American stance. Actually I believe it's clear and obvious that people were defending themselves against hateful comments and threats on Iran and Iranians.

He simply overreacted and showed his true colors and expressed his "hate" for Iranians. 

Most Iranians who responded to him are American citizens and have many American friends, co-workers and American relatives. We know he doesn't represent the majority of Americans. 

On the other hand, PC obviously doesn't know any Iranians in real life and believed all that the media fed him for the past 30 years.He's all for strict sanctions and wouldn't mind dropping a bomb or two on Iran for good measures too. 

One thing PC and all others who do not have strong ties with Iran should take away from this experience is that it doesn't matter what political differences we have, when Iranians speak of Iran and their love for their country and their desire for the people's safety, they do not care for someone who throws a temper tantrum and calls them all pro-IRI!

Rest assured that his non-discriminatory "hate" for us is not reciprocated.  

IRANdokht


che khabar e

mushie...:-)

by che khabar e on

No, I do not condone character assasination.  I do agree with some of his character analysis'.  Big difference.   He's not alone in this pie-throwing contest, I hope you'll agree on that.  I dont care who started it.  NONE of it is good for either Iran or America.  And I'm not "warning" him to do anything.  That is a tactic I'll leave to others.  I am just suggesting that his points are getting lost in the dust up.  Does that clear it up for you?  If not, be specific and I'll be more than happy to respond.  :-)

 


Annoyingmouse

For God's sake people...

by Annoyingmouse on

Don't fall into these people's trap. There are a lot of 'freagin' Iran experts read these comments and come up with the analysis that all Iranians hate all Americans. Just watch it for god's sake.


Annoyingmouse

che khabar e,

by Annoyingmouse on

I was wondering what parts of PC's comment you agreed on hence you said, "There are many things I agree with you on and certainly various character analysis".

It seems you are in favor of our old double standard policy. From one side you seem to approve his character assasination tactics and on the other hand  you warn him to stick to the topic. Please explain it a little!


che khabar e

PC

by che khabar e on

take a step back and reflect a little.  Read the comments again a little closer.  There are many things I agree with you on and certainly various character analysis'.  But seperate the good guys from the bad guys carefully.  You'll see that you're missing out on a pretty fair and impartial participation.  This particular commenter is trying to give you the opportunity to bring it down a notch.  You're getting defensive and that is leading you to make unnecessary and offensive comments of your own.  Yes, Q called you a prick and that wasn't nice but it don't mean you have to return the favor.  Let his attitude and comments speak for him... not you.  :-)


Mola Nasredeen

Irandokht, Hatemonger's real issue is the election of Obama

by Mola Nasredeen on

They scream and yell, they try to hide under "Iran Issue" or "Healthcare Issue". Change has come to America and they don't like it. To them It's unacceptable to have an intelligent, humane and educated president. That's their afflication.


default

"You mean I sound like you?

by KouroshS on

"You mean I sound like you? Because it seems pretty clear that you chose the side of the Islamic Republic in this discussion."

No i do not mean that. 

Is it? is it really clear? You are so out of ammunition, aren't you? listen angry man. Do the honorable thing and Drop it, Okay? You save yourself some dignity, WHILE YOU CAN.

 


che khabar e

is that really true?

by che khabar e on

The same way it was good to your ancestors, unless you are a native American, the real owners of this land, then you are exactly the same as us. You just got here a bit sooner.

Do you think PC has any divided loyalties?  As an expatriate yourself, is your loyalty to Iran or to America? :-)


eroonman

Once again, lots of critique, no solutions.

by eroonman on

I find it highly annoying that you posit these issues without one single bit of solution. How convenient for you. So you don't have an answer, but you know all the problems? Is that the point of your piece? How CNN! How useless!

Hammer? Nail? Do you think using an irrelevant cliche shows your intelligence?

Then how about this one, when Iran is oppressed and has supported terror against the US, you can lead a senator to water, but you can't make him vote in favor of Iran.

No? You are right cliches do suck. Don't use them again please. 

First off, the Iranian people thought they were voting in real elections for the past 30 years. So we could suggest that they might be equally deluded about the government's true nuclear intentions. With all of Iran's natural gas reserves, and that fuel being the cheapest, least polluting, and most efficient source of electricity today, 500 years from now, when we run out of it, is the time to look at peaceful nuclear power. So the argument that the people of Iran support peaceful nuclear energy, and that's what Iran is really working on now, in bombproof underground bunkers, is utterly stupid. Anyone defending it, utterly retarded.

Are you retarded? Because if you are, for me to continue would be cruel.

But no, you are not retarded. You are actually very smart. Just not as smart as you think you are. In your eagerness to offer yet more solution-less analysis, you don't even allow for the possibility Iran may in fact have every intention of getting a weapon. At least it should be a consideration of someone with a sound mind and sounder intentions!

I do agree that sanctions are useless and penalize the poor. However that mass is what precisely needs to rise up and throw the bums out. It is only by fear of the mass that power abdicates and runs away. And other than pressuring the mass, what better solution(s) do you have to accomplish that? I'm listening? Nothing to offer there either? I thought as much.

If you do not support that the mass should rise up, and if that is the only way to achieve urgent change, then you must be one of those "moderation" gutless ilk that support the government staying in power, and self-correcting itself, willingly now having seen the wrongs of their ways.

Good luck with that one! Maybe we shoud ask Neda what she thinks about that idea, Oh wait, she's DEAD!

Finally, aren't you in DC? Supposedly looking out for us. Isn't that your self appointed job? To be in the belly of the beast? Yet you write like an outsider. If you haven't been in the face of every senator you so accurately quote, then what a useless advocate you are!

Do the job you signed up to do! If not, disband, cash out, take the money and run! Get out of town, and get out of the way, stop your self-aggrandizing jabbering. With friends in DC like you, who needs an enema?

Then you can write all the useless, obvious analysis that you want to dream up, without appearing this ridiculous.


capt_ayhab

paranoia galore

by capt_ayhab on

Mr. KouroshS

I thank you kindly for your attempt to drive some sense into Mr. Carig's racist and hateful rants.

Unfortunately you see that you are being labeled  and called names as well. I have lived in south long enough to know these type of people. Always righteous, always me me generation, who are too big even for their own britches. 

Thanks God they are in a small minority in this great country who still worship every hateful crap that Rush Limbaugh's and Sean Hannity's and Glen Beck's  spew out. The gentleman's problem is not only that he is filled with supremacist self pro-claimed  righteousness, but that he is so far out of touch with realities of his own country that borderlines ignorance.

You have seen every comment by everyone and you know that there is no shred of evidence of slandering him or as he put it [shit on America] party.

These are only pigments of his paranoia and narcissistic nature. In short sir, save your breath. ;-)

Much Obliged

Mr. Craig,

Let tell you one thing that you may or may not understand. We Iranians in diaspora, have adopted this country as our own home. We
take more pride in it than you ever can. One reason and one reason alone, This country  has been good to us , despite some hateful elements like you. The same way it was good to your ancestors, unless you are a native American, the real owners of this land, then you are exactly the same as us. You just got here a bit sooner.

-YT 

 


Annoyingmouse

As I said PC,

by Annoyingmouse on

your ego is much bigger than your mouth. That's a dangerous thing you know my little armed-chair warrior. Good thing that you mentioned it, I think you are also Zion and if that's true I remember that Zion used to use same sort of language. Oh boy! I see you haven't given up your old habit yet. Don't you think some of us might see your shaky personality behind your saber ratteling posture? Isn't it because you are too afraid of us. It's OK kid. We are just Perrrrrrrrrrrrrrrsians.


babak pirouzian

I wonder!!!!!

by babak pirouzian on

I wonder if any of your bickering, fighting, insulting, arguing has anything to do with NIACs article?

Can you imagine how much time you and others wasted without any results? any benefit, any solution?  


IRANdokht

Dear Mola

by IRANdokht on

Your shotor seems more up to date and in tune with the American politics than some apparently red-blooded Americans. (I think annoyingmouse has a point though I have never heard an American speak like this guy except in the FOXNews that I only see excerpts of on the Comedy channel)

Your hazrat-e shotor rocks!

Thanks for the smile :o)

IRANdokht


Mola Nasredeen

"It's called inferiority complex!"

by Mola Nasredeen on

"in this case the patient demands constant attention from others and he can't stop himself/herself from commenting and repeats himself over and over" Said shotor.

"Who is the patient Hajagha?" I asked.

"It's for me to know and for you to find out." Said he.


ex programmer craig

XerXes

by ex programmer craig on

//www.youtube.com/watch?v=wuJ_tC3IWvo

The new Cyrus right? :D


ex programmer craig

KoroushH

by ex programmer craig on

I meant to say that you began to sound like one of those whom you hate.

You mean I sound like you? Because it seems pretty clear that you chose the side of the Islamic Republic in this discussion.


ex programmer craig

Noid

by ex programmer craig on

You people can possibly think this guy, Programmer Craig, (if he is a guy) is American?

Maybe I'm Israeli! Maybe I'm Zion even! Maybe you better go barroicade yourself in your house and hide in the basement like XerXes was doing, before he decided he needed to flee to Hawaii to evade the programmer craig justice! I wonder what happened? His Iranian mafia buddies with the big biceps took my (sarcatsic) advice and went to confer with the Italians for real?

Maybe you should have tried the cubans instead? They even dress like you.

//www.youtube.com/watch?v=TVKPzmR1gds


Mola Nasredeen

"Bush is gone, so is Ramsfeld, so is Cheney, so is John Bolton..

by Mola Nasredeen on

Said Shotor.

"Why are you telling me this Hajagha?" I asked.

Wolfovitz is gone, so is Powel.." Hajagha continued.

"McCain is out so is Palin." He mumbled.

"And this unemployed programmer is still trying to sell the idea of sanctions and military attack against Iran to Iranians, what an id..t he is." Said Hazrate shotor.

"Good observation Hajagha, maybe President Obama's Heathcare Reform help him to find a good shrink. He sure needs one." I commented.

 

 


default

Craigo

by KouroshS on

I meant to say that you began to sound like one of those whom you hate. But hey, if you insist as making yourself known as a hater, be my guest. You thought correctly, I did read every one of them.

I am not giving you lessons on anything and i am not least bit interested in your power fables. They did not fire you probably because they felt sorry for you. Where else would have you been able to get a job with this kind of attitude? You should be really thankful of them.

 

"It's in no way against American values to call somebody who is dissembling a bullshitter. In fact, it's more polite than calling somebody a liar because a bullshitter is not necessarily malicious"

Oh , ok. thank you meester craig for that lesson. Apparently it is ok if you give lessons to others but not okay the other way around. If you do not want to be lectured, then please by all means refrain from doing it.

I respect mr. ahyab just like i do others. We are not friends and just iranian.com users. I seriously doubt that you'd be in a position to recomment and suggest that who should talk to whom, with regards to what they should say and whether they should be punished or warned for seemingly sounding different. Did anyone give you a Police badge while signing on to this site? Are you here to spy onpeople?

 


XerXes

KABOOM

by XerXes on

lol. this craig guy is an idiot and now he even knows it. it's not that people hate America, or europeans claim americans are dumb, it's people like this pc loser who gives every decent american a bad name.
dude, people dont like you and your mentality from the dark side. where you dad lynched the blacks in his days and pass it on to you. we got Obama now, you are a dinosaur. dont like it? leave and move to israel. end of story.

got to travel to Hawaii tonight. Love my brothers and sisters here :)

P.S: As you all have seen, Kaveh is NOT Iranian. Here goes to show you that not everyone with an Iranian name who claims to be patriotic is who they say they are.


ex programmer craig

Dude

by ex programmer craig on

Now you are sounding like one of those who hate.

I *am* one who hates. Didn't you see the comment where I said I've hated the IRI since I was a teenager in 1979? I thought you said you read all the comments?

And are you seriously giving me lessons on American etiquette? I've accused co-workers of being "bullshitters" and they didn't even insult me the way Ayhab has. And that was at WORK. I've told my bosses that I don't like to work with bullshitters... do you think they fired me? No. They rearranged the team for me. It's in no way against American values to call somebody who is dissembling a bullshitter. In fact, it's more polite than calling somebody a liar because a bullshitter is not necessarily malicious.

If Ayhab is a friend of yours and you resent him being criticized, I suggest you take it up with him and encourage him to stop making posts and comments that conflict with eachother in such an obvious way.