When All You Have is a Hammer...

... Every Iran Problem Looks Like a Nail

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When All You Have is a Hammer...
by NIAC
09-Aug-2009
 

For most of the month of August, U.S. Congress will be on recess. Consider this the calm before the storm.

Most in Washington are aware that September will bring with it the biggest push for Iran sanctions in years. AIPAC has been lobbying for months on the Iran Refined Petroleum Sanctions Act (IRPSA), and on September 10 the Conference of Presidents of Major American Jewish Organizations will kick off a massive nationwide lobbying effort, which they compare to the "Save Darfur" movement. All of this will culminate at the end of the month when, conveniently enough, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad arrives in New York for the UN General Assembly.

Yes, right around the time Ahmadinejad is at the podium in the UN, Congress is expected to impose what it calls "crippling sanctions" on Iran's economy. The plan is to blockade Iran's foreign supplies of gasoline, hoping that an increase in the price per gallon at the pump will cause the Iranian people to rise up and demand a halt to Iran's nuclear program.

But this plan has number of obvious flaws.

First, the Iranian people have already risen up against the government's hardline leadership. What we have witnessed in Iran for the last two months is unprecedented. To think that marginally higher gas prices will mean anything to a population willing to risk their lives for freedom and democracy is at once naïve and hubristic. According to Juan Cole, imposing broad sanctions on Iran will likely only destroy Iranian civil society and bolster the state's repressive apparatus--as it did in Iraq.

What's more, even if the Iranian people were to demand that the government halt its enrichment program--which they wouldn't, since the vast majority of Iranians support Iran's right to peaceful nuclear technology--does anyone think that the government will actually go along with it? Has Tehran been particularly responsive to the wishes of its citizens lately? No, in fact, that is what these people are fighting for each and every day: to have their voices heard.

Next, even if the sanctions were effective in harming the Iranian economy, there isn't a single historical example of economic sanctions translating into a desirable change in the Iranian government's behavior. Just as the hardliners are resisting their people's calls for change, so too will they refuse to be seen as capitulating to the demands of the West.

So why is Congress fixated on this idea if it doesn't stand a chance of stopping the nuclear program? Some would say that the government has to be punished for the brutality with which it has treated its people. Politicians in Washington were universally outraged by the violence against the Iranian people. And for many lawmakers, this was a time to stand up in support of these brave Iranians.

Senator John McCain spoke passionately from the floor of the US Senate, saying: "The United States of America must, and this body must, affirm our support for fundamental human rights of the Iranian people who are being beaten and killed in the streets of Tehran and other cities around Iran. We are with them."

Republican Mike Pence of Indiana said: "We are bound to support the courageous and decent people in Iran who are struggling for their rights and their freedom."

And even Minority Whip Eric Cantor spoke up, saying: "We must rally the world around the cause of the Iranian people."

But now, almost in the same breath, those same lawmakers are calling for "crippling sanctions" on the Iranian economy. They are quick to mention that Iran imports 40% of its refined petroleum, making that industry Iran's "Achilles heel" so these sanctions will be able to "bring the economy to its knees."

So much for standing with the Iranian people.

What better way to show our support than by casting the common man into financial ruin? Think about who suffers the most in the US when gas prices rise due to shocks--it's the poor. Why would it be any different in Iran? Certainly the elite won't suffer the brunt of these sanctions--the Revolutionary Guards have been getting rich off smuggling sanctioned goods into the country for years. And with Russia and China ready to provide anything the US won't sell to Iran, the mullahs will surely find a way to fill their gas tanks. So that will just leave the poor and middle class to suffer.

Even neoconservative scholar Fred Kagan has acknowledged the real effect of these petroleum sanctions, saying "Look we need to be honest about this: Iranians are going to die if we impose additional sanctions." So despite all their lip-service, it seems that Congress' priorities haven't changed. They are planning to continue the same failed approach to Iran of the last three decades. To them, these petroleum sanctions made sense before Iran's election, and miraculously, they are still our best option after the election.

Iran changed forever on June 12. We are now dealing with a completely altered country, and we would be wise to tailor our policies to reflect that reality. Congress should brainstorm some new ideas for how to support the Iranian people and still protect our security and nonproliferation objectives.

To start, they should throw out these sanctions.

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more from NIAC
Annoyingmouse

Why on earth...

by Annoyingmouse on

You people can possibly think this guy, Programmer Craig, (if he is a guy) is American?

I prove you he is not for three reasons:

1- His posts are often too early in the morning to expect a healthy and intelligent American bothers to be up and write.

2- He is very careful about his spelling and grammer. If you've lived in the US you notice that this is the quality most Americans lack.

3- Last but not least, his ego is as big as yours!


Ari Siletz

Jaleho, I self-deleted

by Ari Siletz on

I asked the article writer to cite a source supporting the statement that the effects of refined petroleum sanctions would be minimal on Iran's economy. On second reading. I saw that he/she had provided a source.

default

I don't care..it does not bother me...

by KouroshS on

Ex programmer

Now you are sounding like one of those who hate. I am amazed at how this care-free attitude of yours is shining through... Bullshitter is an  insult in the english language and i suggest that you remeber that.  Please don't worry about what values i have, whether they are screwed up or not. You should focuse on curing yourself before worrying about dispensing advice onto others. I hope you understand that. Your ideas on how this is a shit-on-americans party from the outset, is totally f..up enough, it puts everything else and all other screwed up "values" to shame.

.

And i am so happy that you are not here to make anything better for anyone. Thank god for such a blessing. you are not, nor will you ever qualify to be in such a position.

You know, they may be able to use you by that big wall, oh i mean the border fence by the mexican border to scare away some illegals who have nothing on mind but coming here and incite chaos and violence. They desperately need intellectual powerhouses like you. You never know how many Mejicano IRI supporters may fall through the border wall's cracks. You should be there. 

 


Q

Craig, your little Stasi blacklist is getting longer and longer

by Q on

pretty soon, you may have to fill up your black book, and then finally have to realize how powerless you really are to do anything about it, right here in your own country!

How dare you ask me to be "civil", after you've repeatedly made racist comments about my people?

Yes, of course. The proud "14th generation Anglo"-American is crying racism.

Rush Limbaugh? Is that you?

What a joke this guy is...


ex programmer craig

PS

by ex programmer craig on

You see what Ayhab did there with the out of context quotes, and the way he trie dto claim I am anti-semitic, when I complained somebody else called me a Jew and a zionist?

That's what a bullshitter does. I don't care if you like it when I point out Ayhab's behavior or not. It is what it is.


ex programmer craig

Excuse me?

by ex programmer craig on

No, they were not. You can not use that to justify your using of that
word.!

"Bullshitter" is not a particularly bad word in the English language, you know? The racist comments Ayhab has made are quite a bt worse. You'd have to have some pretty screwed up values to think otherwise.

I read all the comments, as i do with most threads, and the only
thing i did not encounter was hostility.

Again, you've got some pretty weird values. This was a shit-on-the-americans party from the start.

I am not saying you brought
all the hostility with you. But things could have been better had you
not called capitan that name.

I'm not here to make things better for IRI supporteres. I've never made any secret of the fact I hope they burn in hell.


capt_ayhab

Craig

by capt_ayhab on

You really have gone overboard with your belligerent, abusive, accusatory, rude and load mouth remarks about Iranians and everyone here. More you type dude, more like a foaming lunatic you sound.

I have asked you, as everyone else has, to conduct yourself in a civilized manner, but obviously you do not know what civility means!

Here are excerpts of what you have been foaming about:

This is what you call me [As for your politics... I think I've got you figured out now. You're a bullshuitter and a hypocrite.]

I suppose it takes one to know one.

This is what you say about all Iranians[Iranians are enemies of the United States, when good decent Iranians will do it for free?]

You say this to Mr. Abarmard[Abarmard, did you accuse me of being a Jew]

Tell me, anything wrong with being a Jew? I am glad you showed your Anti Semitic nature so quickly.

Next you drop this jewel[We don't give a shit about you. Really. We don't.]

Dude I doubt if you realize how obnoxious and racist you are. No one has made any slanders to you, but your paranoia and bigotry has been obvious ever since you started commenting and showing your resentment and hostility toward everyone in particular to all Iranians.

It is astonishingly ignorant and preposterous the way you have been attacking everyone and trying, ever so miserably, demonstrate your
superiority. Superiority that only exist in your racist mind.

No further comment with be exchanged with you, due to your hostility belligerence, Antisemitism and  bigotry.

-YT 


Jaleho

Programmer Craig, you said,

by Jaleho on

"vildemose, you underestimate the US military a great deal if you think they'd need an old guy like me back in case of war with Iran. "

War with Iran is a sweet old DREAM of you and Israeli lobby. Although you have been WISHING it since your teenage years, and have been pryaing that other young American boys give their blood and future to save your machismo, but you know that you have been waiting 30 years and you will have to wait another 30 years for that dream, and need to pass it to your children. Poor Reagan did, probably he's still dreaming about defeating the IRI in his grave. RIP.

But, what is strange is that since you know it is just a dream, why do you want to send other American young kids instead of going yourself?! It won't cost you anything, and in your dreams you can even be the very person who goes and captures Ahmadinejad by his own hand! Sweet dream indeed. I think you better bring back those military boots out and start shining them!

Sweet day dreams PC jan.

PS. Why Ari's post is deleted. Ari would be the last person I can imagine would write anything that would use offensive language! He did it himself probably.


XerXes

Craig

by XerXes on

oh my dearm is to have you anywhere around. just you and me babe. i guess you are indirectly asking for my bicep picture, must have excited you, hun? where you in don't talk don't tell program? lol
are you dumb? i never said i am italian. i am a proud iranian. iran is my parents and america is my wife and children. that's how i see it. i love them both.

italians whine too much, just like many conservative americans (unfortunately). they just sit and blame everyone else but themselves. plus italians, if you hang with them closely, dont like jews and they tell you. i am not like that.
that's not whining when i say US is a colony of israel. i have seen how the US is under the political and military control of Israeli government and policymakers. how many countries in the world (besides India for the brits before india's indep.) send their own young men and women to fight a war that is not theirs? when the world says no, israel says yes, US will do it no matter what. That's a colony dude, not whining here.
look, you don't like iranians, that's fine. i don't think anyone cares for your mentality either. so what do you want here? we can't fist fight unfortunately and your anger gets only worse by hanging with people who you hate. so what up? sadistic? get lost dude.

Kaveh, not answering my last comment takes any credibility that anyone could have. you are a liar and a pretender. Answer my last comment if you are telling the truth. WAITING.


Ali Akbar

Mr Abarmard the State takes custody

by Ali Akbar on

of the children and they are placed into FOSTER Care...And are supplied with all medical necessities by volunteer Physicians and Nurses

 

 

Now if the UN had a backbone and a pair they could assure that Innocent Civilians would not be harmed and you know better than I the the world is a lot more complicated than that 


default

ex programmer

by KouroshS on

No, they were not. You can not use that to justify your using of that word.! I read all the comments, as i do with most threads, and the only thing i did not encounter was hostility. I am not saying you brought all the hostility with you. But things could have been better had you not called capitan that name.

It is really interesting that you think you can actually make the claim that someone is misrepresenting their true opinion, as if you have had such a close relationship with all on this thread and you know what is really going on in their heads.

It should matter to you. Since you want to be a part of this discussion. You think that the AIPAC is not to blame, but someone else does. Both opinions should be respected. Notice that i said "opinions" since all these comments are nothing but that, and there is no way of knowing for sure what factors or series of elements are causing the hostility of US gov or public opinion toward the IRI or vice versa.

There is still so much misunderstanding going on between iranians and americans in general, and no one is really clear on precisely what makes "iranians" or "americans" talk in certain ways. One would be deluding oneself when he or she thinks that they can make the claim that in this conflict , there is definitely one party to blame and the other is completely innocent.

Have peaceful dreams:)


ex programmer craig

If you had not used the

by ex programmer craig on

If you had not used the term "bullshitter" things may have had a chance
of going on a more reconcilliatory and peaceful manner.:)

Things were already pretty hostile in this thread before I even showed up. And I'm sorry but when somebody misrepresents their true opinions, that's called bullshit.

Doens't matter much to me one way or another. Give people enough rope and they hang themselves, every time. If it makes people feel good to blame Jews, AIPAC, zionists whatever for US hostility towards Iran then go for it, but you're just deluding yourselves if you think you can say things like have been said in this thread and Americans don't notice. AIPAC is not making Iranians talk this way.


default

Ex programmer

by KouroshS on

I am not part of this eco chamber. I don't associate my sense of patriotism with or based on anything that any of these fellows would have you believe.

If you had not used the term "bullshitter" things may have had a chance of going on a more reconcilliatory and peaceful manner.:)


ex programmer craig

PS

by ex programmer craig on

I still haven't seen any non-Iranian American speak up on behalf of the pro-IRI crew here. What's up with that?

You guys better go create a bunch of fake accounts now to make it look like Americans actually agree with you! But wait a while before you use them. It'd be way to obvious to have a bunch of 1 day wonders chiming in, wouldn't it?


ex programmer craig

KouroshS

by ex programmer craig on

So 700k Iranians are the owners of this land, eh? lol.

Nice echo chamber you guys have set up here.

You are not nice....

Awwww.... was I mean to the poor little Islamic Republic supporters? I'm gonna go cry myself to sleep now! 


default

XerXes

by KouroshS on

Jahelo, you are right on. Only when a ugly minded individual shows their hate and anger to a race as PC, you want to have a strong regime like IR giving it to them ;) I get it.

PC, dude, you don't give a damn about anyone and acting all righteous here. Man, I know many people are polite to answer you here but I bet no one (exept FK, Mehdi Mazloom and such) gives a damn about what you think. Sorry to break it to you.

I told you before and say it again, Europeans are not the owner of this land. So don't act like you are coming here and know something that we don't. We are a bit like Italians when it comes to Europe, we kick the ass of the wise guy and you got no way to win.
You are not nice, and have shown that you are a jerk also. so from now on I ask the readers here to:
-Ignore the ignorant trash unless he begs for mercy.

Tschüss sweet heart

XerXes

Sure.  What a great display of respect and decency towards people. I am sure all iranian men and women all across the world will be proud of the way you have represented them and their views.

Excellent.

For now the strong regime of IRI is getting it from all over the wrold . It will be while before they can actually go out there and start giving IT.

Dream on.


Kaveh V

gitdoun ver.2.0..................

by Kaveh V on

 

for the common man in iran his reaction will be something akin to...

"screw you khamenei but Phuck you America for meddling"  and the regime will use that anger towards the West to unite the nation after having such a horrible election fallout.

 

Certainly, this has been the case in the past. At this point, I believe specific and targeted sanctions against IR foundations, IRGC and specific individuals, or groups and suspect organizations must be in place.

 

Targetting any "civilian" program/organization is a lot more delicate. The US congress should consider, first and foremost, if the proposed sanctions will have any effect on the desired outcome (facilitating regime's downfall), and more importantly, can there be any unintentional consequences that may create a bigger crisis for the US later on should the proposed santions fail ? or produce negative side effects ? This is strictly an argument based on the US national interest, and should be the first order of consideration for the congress.

 

It would also be extremely helpful, if, for example, the executive branch (scretary of state) can provide some small scale tangible proof of the desired outcome before congress make these into a law that may end up being ineffective and costly, or worse, become another foreign policy problem.

 

Then again, it could all be wishful thinking.


Q

Ahura, are you kidding me?

by Q on

Sanctions and embargoes worked against the legitimate and democratic government of Dr. Mohammad Mossadegh by imposing such financial hardship on the country that the 1953 TP-Ajax coup d’état by CIA and Britain succeeded in removing that most popular prime minister.

No, genius! Sanctions did not work. It failed miserably just as with Cuba and Iraq. Operation AJAX was necessary because the sanctions failed and Mossadegh bcame even more popular.


gitdoun ver.2.0

these sanctions WILL HAPPEN

by gitdoun ver.2.0 on

i have a gut feeling sanctions against iran's petrol will happen but the desired domestic effect they seek will NOT materialize. In the end it will only backfire.

for the common man in iran his reaction will be something akin to...

"screw you khamenei but Phuck you America for meddling"  and the regime will use that anger towards the West to unite the nation after having such a horrible election fallout.

 


ex programmer craig

Seriously, XerXes

by ex programmer craig on

Any ways, Craig, here is a news for you. You can't say anything against the Israeli government, that means that the US is a colony of Israel. Is that news to you?

I grew up around Italians in New York and New Jersey, and I don't remember Italians being such whiners. Just an observation! 

Hey I have an idea, though. You can go tell some Italian guys in Yonkers about your opinions, and see if they threaten to show you their biceps or if something else happens instead? I'll go record right here and now that you get thrown through a windshield and nobody even mentions the second amendment.

If that happened to you... would you tell anyone? Or would you come on Iranian.com and whine some more about Zionists?


ex programmer craig

XerXes

by ex programmer craig on

You are worried I am going to track you down and break into your house just to get to you? Seriously!? What the hell kind of italian is that? :D


Kaveh V

Ahura....

by Kaveh V on

 

Specific and targeted sanctions are essential and their effect must be constantly evaluated and adjusted. A reevaluation of these pre-June election sanctions is a must. IRI has made a habit of capitalizing on the US mistakes, and even spinning lies on fair US policies towards them and others in the region.

 

This is the only Raison d'Etre for IRI, to crow about the wrongly perceived US policies to their population and outside population against US. Any mishandling of any policy toward mullahs may become a catalyst for power consolidation of the ruling thugs. A general approach that would experiment with a variety of deifferent sanctions and engagment on small scale should be adopted to find weaknesses. More importantly, counterproductive outcomes should be identified quickly and re-adjust the policies before mullahs can capitalize on them.

 


XerXes

Oh Non Persian speaking coming

by XerXes on

Pro Israelis have heard there is a talk. I bet it's one individual who is losing his argument, now coming as different name.

Any ways, Craig, here is a news for you. You can't say anything against the Israeli government, that means that the US is a colony of Israel. Is that news to you?

You probably heard so much of your boss country that blame your diarrhea on Iran.


Ahura

IRI Has to Go

by Ahura on

NIAC has a history of lobbying US congress in support of issues that are aligned with IRI (Islamic Republic of Iran) interests. Now that the world community has seen a glimpse of the true barbaric nature of IRI and US legislators plan to slightly tighten the noose around the mullahs’ necks, NIAC has come to rescue.

 

The sanctions need become comprehensive and extend to financial sectors in order to deprive the ruling mullahs and their sepahi mafia network of lucrative income.  These sanctions coupled with effective media campaign can mobilize the masses in Iran against the IRI leadership that bears the direct responsibility for the hardships inflicted on them.  The stage is already set with the recent alliance of Iranians demanding democracy and freedom under the feasible banner of green movement.  The beatings, massacres, incarcerations, tortures, and rapes of these valiant Iranians by basijis and sepahis has angered the extended families of the victims and fortified their resolve to oppose the dictatorship of mullahs. The revolutionary injustice court trials of the incarcerated and the forced confessions are adding to the ranks and files of domestic IRI opponents. The opposition of the grand ayatollahs to the policies of supreme leader Ali Khamenei is on the rise.  The rift between the conservatives, who rule with an iron fist, and the reformists, who recognize a need of some token freedom for the youths in order to save the IRI religious dictatorship, has grown into an overt fight. Truly the dynamics has changed and people have loudly voiced their objections to dictator and the exploitative support of IRI by Russia and China in their consorted looting of Iran.

Sanctions and embargoes worked against the legitimate and democratic government of Dr. Mohammad Mossadegh by imposing such financial hardship on the country that the 1953 TP-Ajax coup d’état by CIA and Britain succeeded in removing that most popular prime minister.  For the time being sanctions alone can damage the unpopular IRI religious dictatorship and its mismanaged economy of annual 26% inflation rate and 18.7% unemployment. If needed embargoes should follow.

 

West can deliver the much needed help to the opposition group in Iran by imposing a comprehensive sanction on IRI and starving the beast.


XerXes

Kaveh

by XerXes on

aval javab bedeh bebinam khodi hasti ya na, ta aberut narafteh. khaye maal


Kaveh V

This is just crap.....

by Kaveh V on

 

"....lol.
I told you we are like Italians and take care of our own. i dont care
for anyone else but would you like me to send you a picture of my
biceps so you know why no neighbors of mine don't fvck with me? plus i
got a nice collection of 2nd amendment ready to use in case of an
intruder...."

 

I happen to have read your garbage and you're not "my own". 

You opportunistic Islamic turds are always ready to claim anything.  


XerXes

Craig is dizzy

by XerXes on

lol.
I told you we are like Italians and take care of our own. i dont care for anyone else but would you like me to send you a picture of my biceps so you know why no neighbors of mine don't fvck with me? plus i got a nice collection of 2nd amendment ready to use in case of an intruder


Rabbi

As an American Jew

by Rabbi on

I have to say the US owes Israel because of all the stuff we had to go through. How many races have gone through what we have gone through?
I think that for the first time Israelis are dominating and making it safe for the Jews all over the world. This is good news and not bad news.


Kaveh V

Craig....

by Kaveh V on

 

".....before you started hijacking planes, before you started taking innocent
people from other countries hostage, before you starting sponsoring
murder in other countries,...."

 

As a late comer to this discussion and someone who does not have as much time to participate (for that I apolodize), I'd like make some exceptions.

For the first 10-15 years of living in the US and following, very closely, every news from and about Iran, I can make the following generalization:

There has also been a great deal of misinformation and propaganda about Iran and Iranians as you would find about America and Americans in Iran. The difference being, the absurdity of the anti-American propaganda has driven many Iranians away from the ideological path of the Islamists and all their branches. 

 

But, in the US, perhaps because of lack of interest and the fact that the misinformation disperesed among legitimate news items were more sparse, many still have do not have all the facts.

 

I can say this much, IRI is one hell of a murderous barbarosity against Iranians, and (as much as I hate to admit)  not much of a threat to anyone else, with a few exceptions. Barring some personal prejudices from Muslim apologists here, those who grew on either side of the divide still harbor negative  feelings that may still be based on the old misinformation and half-truths. This goes moslty on the Iranian side, again apart from the usual Islamists on this site. 


Abarmard

Craig take it easy

by Abarmard on

 

I don't hold you responsible for many things you don't know. It's natural for someone who has grown here (or anywhere), without having a family who encourage investigating the truth rather than taking orders, such as in the military, to think like you.

 

You can't teach a old dogs new tricks.