SANCTIONS
به زبان فارسی
PICTORY
LATEST MUSIC
SEARCH
When All You Have is a Hammer...
09-Aug-2009
For most of the month of August, U.S. Congress will be on recess. Consider this the calm before the storm.
Most in Washington are aware that September will bring with it the biggest push for Iran sanctions in years. AIPAC has been lobbying for months on the Iran Refined Petroleum Sanctions Act (IRPSA), and on September 10 the Conference of Presidents of Major American Jewish Organizations will kick off a massive nationwide lobbying effort, which they compare to the "Save Darfur" movement. All of this will culminate at the end of the month when, conveniently enough, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad arrives in New York for the UN General Assembly.
Yes, right around the time Ahmadinejad is at the podium in the UN, Congress is expected to impose what it calls "crippling sanctions" on Iran's economy. The plan is to blockade Iran's foreign supplies of gasoline, hoping that an increase in the price per gallon at the pump will cause the Iranian people to rise up and demand a halt to Iran's nuclear program.
But this plan has number of obvious flaws.
First, the Iranian people have already risen up against the government's hardline leadership. What we have witnessed in Iran for the last two months is unprecedented. To think that marginally higher gas prices will mean anything to a population willing to risk their lives for freedom and democracy is at once naïve and hubristic. According to Juan Cole, imposing broad sanctions on Iran will likely only destroy Iranian civil society and bolster the state's repressive apparatus--as it did in Iraq.
What's more, even if the Iranian people were to demand that the government halt its enrichment program--which they wouldn't, since the vast majority of Iranians support Iran's right to peaceful nuclear technology--does anyone think that the government will actually go along with it? Has Tehran been particularly responsive to the wishes of its citizens lately? No, in fact, that is what these people are fighting for each and every day: to have their voices heard.
Next, even if the sanctions were effective in harming the Iranian economy, there isn't a single historical example of economic sanctions translating into a desirable change in the Iranian government's behavior. Just as the hardliners are resisting their people's calls for change, so too will they refuse to be seen as capitulating to the demands of the West.
So why is Congress fixated on this idea if it doesn't stand a chance of stopping the nuclear program? Some would say that the government has to be punished for the brutality with which it has treated its people. Politicians in Washington were universally outraged by the violence against the Iranian people. And for many lawmakers, this was a time to stand up in support of these brave Iranians.
Senator John McCain spoke passionately from the floor of the US Senate, saying: "The United States of America must, and this body must, affirm our support for fundamental human rights of the Iranian people who are being beaten and killed in the streets of Tehran and other cities around Iran. We are with them."
Republican Mike Pence of Indiana said: "We are bound to support the courageous and decent people in Iran who are struggling for their rights and their freedom."
And even Minority Whip Eric Cantor spoke up, saying: "We must rally the world around the cause of the Iranian people."
But now, almost in the same breath, those same lawmakers are calling for "crippling sanctions" on the Iranian economy. They are quick to mention that Iran imports 40% of its refined petroleum, making that industry Iran's "Achilles heel" so these sanctions will be able to "bring the economy to its knees."
So much for standing with the Iranian people.
What better way to show our support than by casting the common man into financial ruin? Think about who suffers the most in the US when gas prices rise due to shocks--it's the poor. Why would it be any different in Iran? Certainly the elite won't suffer the brunt of these sanctions--the Revolutionary Guards have been getting rich off smuggling sanctioned goods into the country for years. And with Russia and China ready to provide anything the US won't sell to Iran, the mullahs will surely find a way to fill their gas tanks. So that will just leave the poor and middle class to suffer.
Even neoconservative scholar Fred Kagan has acknowledged the real effect of these petroleum sanctions, saying "Look we need to be honest about this: Iranians are going to die if we impose additional sanctions." So despite all their lip-service, it seems that Congress' priorities haven't changed. They are planning to continue the same failed approach to Iran of the last three decades. To them, these petroleum sanctions made sense before Iran's election, and miraculously, they are still our best option after the election.
Iran changed forever on June 12. We are now dealing with a completely altered country, and we would be wise to tailor our policies to reflect that reality. Congress should brainstorm some new ideas for how to support the Iranian people and still protect our security and nonproliferation objectives.
To start, they should throw out these sanctions.
| Recently by NIAC | Comments | Date |
|---|---|---|
| Unblock Relief for Earthquake Victims | 50 | Aug 12, 2012 |
| Oil, sanctions, and prospects for future | 3 | Jul 02, 2012 |
| Upcoming Netanyahu, Obama Meeting | 6 | Mar 04, 2012 |
RECENT COMMENTS
IRANIANS OF THE DAY
| Person | About | Day |
|---|---|---|
| نسرین ستوده: زندانی روز | Dec 04 | |
| Saeed Malekpour: Prisoner of the day | Lawyer says death sentence suspended | Dec 03 |
| Majid Tavakoli: Prisoner of the day | Iterview with mother | Dec 02 |
| احسان نراقی: جامعه شناس و نویسنده ۱۳۰۵-۱۳۹۱ | Dec 02 | |
| Nasrin Sotoudeh: Prisoner of the day | 46 days on hunger strike | Dec 01 |
| Nasrin Sotoudeh: Graffiti | In Barcelona | Nov 30 |
| گوهر عشقی: مادر ستار بهشتی | Nov 30 | |
| Abdollah Momeni: Prisoner of the day | Activist denied leave and family visits for 1.5 years | Nov 30 |
| محمد کلالی: یکی از حمله کنندگان به سفارت ایران در برلین | Nov 29 | |
| Habibollah Golparipour: Prisoner of the day | Kurdish Activist on Death Row | Nov 28 |
Abarmard
by ex programmer craig on Mon Aug 10, 2009 06:14 PM PDTNo I didn', your information is coming from heavy lobbies of Israeli war machine.
So AIPAC made Khomeini seize teh US embassy in Tehran? AIPAC made the IRGC create Hezbollah in Lebanon? I suppose AIPAC killed Zarah Kazemi and forced Khameini to arrest and prosecute a French girl for the crime of being a French girl in Iran?
I suppose you blame AIPAC every time you get constipated, too?
Abarmard
by ex programmer craig on Mon Aug 10, 2009 06:07 PM PDTYou should have thought about the consequences before you seized teh US embassy, before you started hijacking planes, before you started taking innocent people from other countries hostage, before you starting sponsoring murder in other countries, and so forth. But, you didn't. And in your case, you got the fuck out of dodge and now you want to play the poor slobs you left behind in Iran as your trump card. Doesn't work that way. I'm all for Iranians helping themselves out of the mess they are in, as I think most Americans are, but if they can't... that doens't mean the US has to stand idly by while the Islamic Republic victimizes us even further.
And in my previous list, I think I forgot to add Ostaad. And now I would like to add Abarmard to it.
We don't give a shit about you. Really. We don't. Find out the truth of that for yourself... just walk around your neighborhood and tell people your opinions and see what kind of reaction you get. And don't hold anything back! Let it all hang out like you do here on the internet. I bet most of you won't last an hour without getting in a violent altercation.
wow
by ex programmer craig on Mon Aug 10, 2009 06:00 PM PDTThe amount of congratulatory butt slapping by IRI supporters here is really over the top. You guys actually BELIEVE that the US Government cares about what apologists for the Islamic Republic want, don't you? You assume that you are as influential as AIPAC or American Jews in general, and never bother to consider the trivial matter of Israel being a close ally of the US while Iran is a long term enemy? You just automatically assume you're in the same league! Dudes... and ladies... your first task is to convince the US Government that you are on their side. And if I may say so, you aren't doing a very good job of that! ;)
Psycho-babble a galore...
by Ostaad on Mon Aug 10, 2009 05:44 PM PDTAli, are you arguing there is an "emotional bond" between the Iranian people and the regime, therefore what the Iranian people, some not all, are displaying is a love-fest of sorts with Khamenie and company?!!! In other words the beatings, jailings and rapes can be "interpreted" as a what is known nowadays as "spiritual sex"?!!!
Someone please let the women whom you "council" know they are in immediate and present danger, by being close to a quack.
Unfortunately you left me hanging there, since you never bothered to explain how removing the sanctions would "enable" the abuser! Isn't the abuser enabled enough? And how hopeful are you that China and Russia would "join the west"?
On what basis are you attributing "moral backbone" to France, UK and Germnay?!!! By how ready they are to fleece the Iranian middle/working class, I presume?!!!
Wow Mr. Ali Akbar
by Abarmard on Mon Aug 10, 2009 05:32 PM PDTgreat analogy. Wonder if you have families with kids and God forbit, they become ill. To find medication that is sanctioned, spare plane parts that is sanctioned and less money in the average Iranian because of sanctions does show who truly has a sick mind here.
One side is looking from people's eyes, the other is watching Seinfeld in a quiet corner of his neighborhood claiming sanctions are good!
Back to your family, if you are Iranian. If your child dies because of sanctions, Does that make you a sick abused bastard still?
Laughable!
Sanctions...an analogy
by Ali Akbar on Mon Aug 10, 2009 05:25 PM PDTOn the subject of sanctions and how they will affect the Iranian people I can only draw from personal experience...
I am a volunteer councilor who deals with women in abusive relationships and we know there is this emotional bond between the abuser and victim...
I see the Iranian people in a similar situation they are being abused sexually and physically by the government... and in my opinion removing sanctions would only enable the abusers....Escalating the sanctions would accelerate the turmoil within Iran and hopefully this could force the Iranian Military to side with the reformers...
Hopefully China and Russia could join the west but I doubt they have the moral backbone to force the issue....
ex programmer craig
by Dariush on Mon Aug 10, 2009 05:23 PM PDTYou all please leave Farhad kashani alone! He is back in coma.
ex programmer craig, You seem to be very proud of your government. Do you approve what they have done in the past and present to other countries? Have you not seen enough images of U.S. government crimes around the world? Are you saying we should not speak the truth to please your congressmen? Just who are these congressmen? Didn't they voted against the democratically elected government of Palestine? And supported the fascist regime of Israel for all their crimes? There was no rigging there, was there? Your statement sounds like the famous quote by Bush "If you are not with us, you are against us". Except for a few, most of the congressmen follow orders, so, I personally will defend what is right rather than pleasing any congressmen or women. Beside, do you think if it makes any difference? MEK the west friendly just got paid for his friendship. So you see, being friendly or not doesn't make any difference. They will do the same to this green movement, reformists and oppositions. It is all about the interest, not freedom and democrocy.
Don't take me wrong, it is quite alright to have you here discussing issues with us. This shows at least you care, but if you deny the truth, you will be discrediting yourself. Every country has her weak points, so does the west. All it takes is three months of oil sanction and disruption in oil export from Iraq. As one commentator wrote, west is not sanctioning Iran's oil exports, but the gasoline imports. What does this tell you? sanctioning the oil export is shooting in the foot and will have negative effect on west. So here is the weakness and the answer.
ex programmer craig
by Abarmard on Mon Aug 10, 2009 05:21 PM PDTNo I didn', your information is coming from heavy lobbies of Israeli war machine. That I will say again.
lol
by ex programmer craig on Mon Aug 10, 2009 05:07 PM PDTAbarmard, did you accuse me of being a Jew and a Zionist in one sentence? Amazing!
vildemose, you underestimate the US military a great deal if you think they'd need an old guy like me back in case of war with Iran.
Fred, sorry your last facelift...
by Ostaad on Mon Aug 10, 2009 04:44 PM PDTdidn't work, homie. Try some lipstick.
yes it's a good idea to send this page to the US congress
by Abarmard on Mon Aug 10, 2009 04:14 PM PDTTo know that the majority of some 700,000 Iranians who vote are against sanctions. Absolutely a good idea to do so.
It would not take much to make an average American to dislike the dishonesty of AIPAC lobby, if the media was allowed to broadcast or do an investigative reporting, then we would know what Americans truly think.
My bet is that most American care about where their money is being spent than what the Mullas are doing in Iran. I would also argue most Americans are a bit confused about the map of the region and the initial problems that is caused by the state of Israel. We are not in this mess from no where!
(The reason that I am bringing Israel and AIPAC in this comment is directly related to Mr. Craig's mind where he is repeating the claims made by those Israeli government's mouth piece)
I would go further and argue that most Americans are confused as where the capital of the United States is. Therefore to make an argument here that most Americans, who watch the controlled media know well about the Iranian affairs and true Israeli face, is a mistake.
However, as Jaleho has put it, those who are aware and read well, think very different than the new rep. of the American society here claims.
Thank you NIAC for this piece and hope that many us have already joined this Iranian American organization, which gives the majority of us a very powerful voice. To fight against warmongers, hate-mongers, support NIAC and answer them legally through the US congress.
Dear Ex-Programmer: Do
by vildemose on Mon Aug 10, 2009 04:08 PM PDTDear Ex-Programmer:
Do you think if there were a war against Iran in the next few years you would re-enlist?
IRGC: Arrest Mousavi,
by vildemose on Mon Aug 10, 2009 04:06 PM PDT//tehranbureau.com/irgc-arrest-mousavi-khatami/#comments
""Sign a peace treaty with
by vildemose on Mon Aug 10, 2009 04:02 PM PDT""Sign a peace treaty with Iran. Protect it against any nuclear first strike, especially and specifically one by Israel.
That would shut down Iran's nuclear program faster than Khamenei trying to stop Ahmadinejad's slobbering advances.""
//iranian.com/main/node/76450
Excellent idea.
By the way...
by ex programmer craig on Mon Aug 10, 2009 03:37 PM PDTBest way to get congress to approve sanctions is to send links to this thread to the congressmen. Who needs AIPAC to tell congress that Iranians are enemies of the United States, when good decent Iranians will do it for free?
Ayhab
by ex programmer craig on Mon Aug 10, 2009 03:36 PM PDTWhat was the main subject?
Main subject is about how IRI apologists are going to whine and cry if the UN imposes sanctions on Iran. Didn't you read the post?
Ayhab
by ex programmer craig on Mon Aug 10, 2009 03:33 PM PDTHow dare you ask me to be "civil", after you've repeatedly made racist comments about my people?
Ayhab, Q, Mola Nasradeen, Jaleho, IRANdokht, Dariush, XerXes...
Anyone who thinks that there is any support at all in US public opinion for people like these needs to get their head examined.
sooooo
by capt_ayhab on Mon Aug 10, 2009 03:27 PM PDTWhat was the main subject?
-YT
Craig
by capt_ayhab on Mon Aug 10, 2009 03:28 PM PDTYou should have realized by now that your ideas of war and destruction is repulsive to every decent human being, be it a Jew, Christian, Muslim, American, Iranian, white, black, man and woman.
And young man, watch your language or do not debate with me. Civility is in order.
-YT
Absurd
by ex programmer craig on Mon Aug 10, 2009 03:12 PM PDTAs one of the gentleman pointed out, idea of No war on Iran or NO
sanction on Iran is rather a main stream thought pattern in USA.
That's ridiculous, Ayhab. The US has had sanctions on Iran for 30 years, and there has never been any attempt in congress to get them lifted. As for attacks on Iran, I guarnatee you the American public will support it, if that's what Obama decides to do.
I suggest you get YOUR news from somebody besides Iranian.com and I also suggest you try talking to Amerricans who don't come from Iran. Because, I'm actually prettuy moderate and I can't think fo any reason why you don't understand that as long as you've been living in the US except that you only associate with Iranians.
As for your politics... I think I've got you figured out now. You're a bullshuitter and a hypocrite.
jeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeez
by capt_ayhab on Mon Aug 10, 2009 03:12 PM PDTIt has turned into kindergarten here ahhh
Ina dige kian toro khoda?
-YT
Jahelo RIGHT ON--PC burn
by XerXes on Mon Aug 10, 2009 03:11 PM PDTJahelo, you are right on. Only when a ugly minded individual shows their hate and anger to a race as PC, you want to have a strong regime like IR giving it to them ;) I get it.
PC, dude, you don't give a damn about anyone and acting all righteous here. Man, I know many people are polite to answer you here but I bet no one (exept FK, Mehdi Mazloom and such) gives a damn about what you think. Sorry to break it to you.
I told you before and say it again, Europeans are not the owner of this land. So don't act like you are coming here and know something that we don't. We are a bit like Italians when it comes to Europe, we kick the ass of the wise guy and you got no way to win.
You are not nice, and have shown that you are a jerk also. so from now on I ask the readers here to:
-Ignore the ignorant trash unless he begs for mercy.
Tschüss sweet heart
Cosmetic change don’t count
by Fred on Mon Aug 10, 2009 03:11 PM PDTA leopard cannot change its spots
Anyway...
by ex programmer craig on Mon Aug 10, 2009 03:07 PM PDTThanks for making it perfectly clear where you really stand, Captian. I've seen you backing these cretins a long time ago, but recently it seemeed like you had changed your views. I guess that's all over now, right?
Craig
by capt_ayhab on Mon Aug 10, 2009 03:05 PM PDTWith all due respect dude, you really need to get in touch with reality and stop watching so much Faux news.
As one of the gentleman pointed out, idea of No war on Iran or NO sanction on Iran is rather a main stream thought pattern in USA. But obviously you are far away from that, which is fine since you are 100% entitled to your opinion. But please lets not disguise it under LOVE of Iran, because it is rather transparent.
As for my political polarity, If you have not gotten it by now, you will never get it, even if I recite for you again.
Just FYI again, During the heat of uprising in Iran during June and July, Israel had ask US permission to attack Iran, but Obama had ignored it. Same way Bush administration refused it.
-YT
Dear Joe L.
by Jaleho on Mon Aug 10, 2009 03:05 PM PDTYou're what I call a smart American. May God of education and understanding increase our numbers as its has done so far, exemplified by Obama taking the place of Bushies :-)
OK
by ex programmer craig on Mon Aug 10, 2009 03:05 PM PDTSeriously, If I don't start hearing from some sane Iranians in this thread, I give up. I'm gonna go MARG BAR IRAN on your asses.
Can I beg everyone to please ignore ex whatever
by Ostaad on Mon Aug 10, 2009 03:15 PM PDTHe is a bottom dwelling noise maker, a provocateur, his contribution to the topic at hand is zilch. In other words he is equivalent of a cheap stink bomb, period.
Please don't respond to his rants.
Let's get back to discussing the issue of sanctions, shall we?
Do we have a deal?
Ayhab
by ex programmer craig on Mon Aug 10, 2009 03:02 PM PDTI shall challenge ANYONE who so cowardly and IMMORALLY propagates
sanction or war on Iran. An sorry dude I will not sugar coat it either.
I'm not going to sugarcoat it either. I don't care what happens to people like Jaleho. I simply don't. And after reading what she jsut wrote, if you are going to claim it is IMMORAL for me to have a great deal of hostility towards her then my friend, the moral failure is yours. Do you even understand the difference between right and wrong?
What do you plan to do about the Jalehos in Iran? That's what the US government needs to hear.
Craig,
by Q on Mon Aug 10, 2009 03:04 PM PDTWe'll see if this website means what they say about posting standards or not,
Obviously. They did kick you out once, didn't they "ex" Programmer?
Joe, your sentiments are well taken. I've traveled all over North America, and I know there are decent people in every State. Don't worry, none of us would dream of holding Craig up as a "representative American" in any context.
Ostaad, absolutely agree, it wasn't easy and it was real close. I was involved as well. We do owe it to the enormous American activist community as well as NIAC, CASMI, BAIAD and all the other groups that the good for nothing loudmouths around here love to bash.