Is a Military Strike Against Iran On the Cards?

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sadegh
by sadegh
25-Jun-2008
 
While political scientist, Norman G. Finkelstein discounts the possibility of an Israeli attack on Iran as posturing (see his interview with Press TV here), it seems that the hawkish brute John Bolton begs to differ in a recent interview with The Daily Telegraph and regards it as a near certainty, before Bush leaves office in the fall. Unwavering neocon, Bill Kristol has even claimed that Bush is more likely to launch a strike himself if it looks like Obama is next in line to be Commander-in-Chief.

Bolton's prediction is, at least in part, consonant with those of Seymour Hersh in his New Yorker series on the administration's plans to attack Iran, spearheaded by the vice-president, Dick Cheney's office. Former UN weapons inspector, Scott Ritter's pronouncements also seem to side with the conviction that the Bush administration is staunchly committed to an attack on Iran before the end of the president's term, irrespective of its repercussions for the region, Iranian civilians (obviously), American troops based in Iraq and Afghanistan, oil prices and the global economy. The only question remaining, is whether it will be Israel or the United States that carries out the dastardly deed.

The obvious key difference which separates Bolton from Hersh and Ritter, is that the former has for some time been vociferously calling for an attack on Iran on Fox News and other sympathetic venues and railing against the administration's lack of 'resolve' when it comes to Iran. While at present, it's undeniable that a storm is brewing and pressure has intensified on Iran as the two presidential nominees square off and the twilight of Bush’s presidency lies on the horizon.

Though predominantly anecdotal (there are some articles which I've linked below), I've been told by numerous individuals, friends and relatives who regularly conduct business transactions internationally from inside of Iran, that the present sanctions are seriously hampering Iran's economic health, prospects etc... and have had a terrible impact far beyond Iran's nuclear activities or the personnel associated with it. I don't know of any full-length study which has been undertaken to demonstrate the wider effects of the current sanctions regime on the Iranian economy, so if anyone knows of one, please let me know.

The UAE has thus far acted like an economic lifeline, and much trade is first 'laundered' via the UAE before reaching Iran; but the Americans are bringing serious pressure to bear on the Emirati authorities to curb 'illicit trade' with Iranian companies. This week the European Union passed a new series of sanctions targeting Iranian financial institutions and most importantly Iran's Bank-e-Melli. What is being undertaken on all fronts by the so-called 'international community' i.e. the US and its European cheerleader squad, is nothing less than an asymmetrical effort to buttress the economic stranglehold on the Iranian economy in the hope of coercing Iran into divesting itself of the right to enrich uranium, guaranteed by the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. No wonder that some are exclaiming that sanctions are merely warfare by other means. Clausewitz would have undoubtedly seen the parallel with his own dictum that 'war is a continuation of politics by other means' very quickly, although in this case it's a matter of economic warfare waged by means of sanctions, psychological warfare through the ceaseless threat of military force and even 'obliteration', and finally the very real and tangible threat of coercion in the form of military maneuvers, by both American warships in the Gulf and Israeli F-16s over the Mediterranean.

The choice we face is whether we are going to voice our opposition to yet another foreign policy and morally bankrupt disaster or applaud while the bombs fall and innocents are torn limb from limb. If and when a strike does occur, we can be sure Bolton will applaud, do a little dance and throw in a couple of 'hell yeahs', all in the name of 'liberty', 'justice' and 'security' for Israel...errr...I mean the world...

Telegraph.co.uk:

Israel 'will attack Iran' before new US president sworn in, John Bolton predicts

By Toby Harnden in Washington

Last updated: 9:50 AM BST 24/06/2008

John Bolton, the former American ambassador to the United Nations, has predicted that Israel could attack Iran after the November presidential election but before George W Bush's successor is sworn in.

The Arab world would be "pleased" by Israeli strikes against Iranian nuclear facilities, he said in an interview with The Daily Telegraph.

"It [the reaction] will be positive privately. I think there'll be public denunciations but no action," he said.

Mr Bolton, an unflinching hawk who proposes military action to stop Iran developing nuclear weapons, bemoaned what he sees as a lack of will by the Bush administration to itself contemplate military strikes.

"It's clear that the administration has essentially given up that possibility," he said. "I don't think it's serious any more. If you had asked me a year ago I would have said I thought it was a real possibility. I just don't think it's in the cards."

//www.telegraph.co.uk

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Monda

Nice piece

by Monda on

and nice comments from Niloufar, thanks for the information. Good to have you among us.

I wish people would go back to regular fonts! Not only discource looks hostile to reader, but also emphasis on too many points somehow takes away the importance, besides dark fonts are bad for the eyes!


sadegh

Thanks Mammad, I appreciate

by sadegh on

Thanks Mammad, I appreciate your claification of the matter. I am definitely going to continue my research. Thanks again. And Kaveh thanks for the links...

Ba Arezu-ye Movafaghiat, Sadegh

 


default

1988 genocide.....

by KavehV (not verified) on

Ok, here it is, below is the link to the site; holycrime.com/CrimeExc1A.asp. Of course, I can not be sure about the authenticity of the document. I could be equally convinced that the document is fraudulent based on the assumption that it would be an easy way for the real perpetrators to hide behind Khomeini. On the other hand, there is no doubt that Khomeini, or any of these murderous Islamists had any problem murdering anybody, as he professes in the link I provides earlier.

//www.holycrime.com/CrimeExc1A.asp

Or check here for the typed version of the text:
//www.utoronto.ca/prisonmemoirs/

The more I think about it, this was a real cowardly crime that was done in a state of panic after the war. I just can't see how these kids, and only 4000-5000 of them, could have been such a grave danger to the regime. This genocide was either because of the panic of an incompetent leadership lacking selfconfidence after losing the war with lies and deceits, or the product of pure Islamo-murder ideology as you witness in the video clip of my last comment. Either way, it invokes rage in any normal human being.

There is more on the details of this crime (against humanity) on the Khavaran site. They are still compiling the names of the victims and have about 4500 names so far:

//www.khavaran.com/


Mammad

Sadegh

by Mammad on

I have followed closely the executions of 1988, and have compiled as much as I can. Aside from my political nature, I do this because two of my oldest and best friends were among the victims of that bloody summer. 

30,000 executed in 1988 seems way too high. I am not aware of any documents that actually shows evidence for it. Except for Mojahedin, I am not aware of anybody (Iranian) claiming that number.

I know that there is a list with about 4500 names on it. Ayatollah Montazeri himself says the number was between 2800 and 3800. So, I believe that 4000-4500 is probably accurate.

Regarding Saeed Emami: Of course, he did not act alone. The reason he was killed, or the reason "Saeed Emami raa khod koshi kardand!" was that he knew too much. Akbar Gangi had been told that, in publishing the results of his investigative reporting, he could not go higher than Saeed Emami, another indication for deep involvement of high officials.

Shirin Ebadi, an old friend, told me that she knows much about this, because she had studied the case as the attorney for some of the victims, but she did not want to put what she knew in her memoirs. She does give some hints in her memoir. By the way, she was supposed to be the next person to be murdered by Saeed Emami, but due to Ramazan, she escaped.

There is much evidence that, at the very least, Gholamhossein Mohseni Ezhei (the present Intellgence Minister), Ghorban Ali Dorri Najaf Abadi (Khatami's first IM), and Ali Fallahian (Rafsanjani's IM), were all involved, but their guilt must be proven in a fair trial.

Regarding my article, it was published in an Iranian magazine in southern California two years ago. It is not available online.

Mammad


default

Sadegh....

by KavehV (not verified) on

I am trying the youtube link again, hope it works this time. He does not confess to ordering the killings in this clip, but he clearly condone and support all killings under his watch.

//www.youtube.com/watch?v=h81E-gKQLQs

I also have downloaded a hand written document from the web, in which, his son Ahmad has asked what to do with these prosoners. His short reply was written on the same piece of paper and is some what similar to the following (from wikipedia):

«از آنجا که منافقین خائن به هیچ وجه به اسلام معتقد نبوده و هر چه میگویند از روی حیله و نفاق آنهاست و به اقرار سران آنها از اسلام ارتداد پیدا کردهاند، با توجه به محارب بودن آنها و جنگ کلاسیک آنها در شمال و غرب و جنوب کشور با همکاریهای حزب بعث عراق و نیز جاسوسی آنها برای صدام علیه ملت مسلمان ما و با توجه به ارتباط آنان با استکبار جهانی و ضربات ناجوانمردانهٔ آنان از ابتدای تشکیل نظام جمهوری اسلامی تا کنون، کسانی که در زندانهای سراسر کشور بر سر موضع نفاق خود پافشاری کرده و میکنند، محارب و محکوم به اعدام میباشند.» (رضایی و سلیمی نمین، پاسداشت حقیقت:147

I have will continue to search for this hand written document on the web and will provide a link (if I find it). Or, I will have to figure out how to upload it to this site.


sadegh

From some minor websurfing

by sadegh on

From some minor websurfing it seems that Ervand Abrahamian's book 'Tortured Confessions' provides a fairly accurate account of the events. There is also of course Montazeri's Khaterat, which is a crucial primary source on the matter.

This article by Kaveh Shahrooz also looks very well documented though I haven't read it yet:

//www.law.harvard.edu/students/orgs/hrj/iss20/shahrooz.pdf

Ba Arezu-ye Movafaghiat, Sadegh

 


sadegh

This is pretty damning...Any

by sadegh on

This is pretty damning...Any comments? Again I haven't done the research myself so I'm eager to hear the informed opinions and arguments of others. Khomeini fatwa 'led to killing of 30,000 in Iran'  

By Christina Lamb, Diplomatic Correspondent

Last updated: 3:55 PM BST 19/06/2001

 

CHILDREN as young as 13 were hanged from cranes, six at a time, in a barbaric two-month purge of Iran's prisons on the direct orders of Ayatollah Khomeini, according to a new book by his former deputy.More than 30,000 political prisoners were executed in the 1988 massacre - a far larger number than previously suspected. Secret documents smuggled out of Iran reveal that, because of the large numbers of necks to be broken, prisoners were loaded onto forklift trucks in groups of six and hanged from cranes in half-hourly intervals.Gruesome details are contained in the memoirs of Grand Ayatollah Hossein-Ali Montazeri, The Memoirs of Grand Ayatollah Hossein Ali Montazeri, one of the founders of the Islamic regime. He was once considered Khomeini's anointed successor, but was deposed for his outspokenness, and is now under house arrest in the holy city of Qom.Published privately last month after attempts by the regime to suppress it, the revelations have prompted demands from Iranian exiles for those involved to be tried for crimes against humanity. The most damning of the letters and documents published in the book is Khomeini's fatwa decree calling for all Mojahedin (as opponents of the Iranian regime are known) to be killed.Issued shortly after the end of the Iran-Iraq war in July 1988 and an incursion into western Iran by the Iranian resistance, the fatwa reads: "It is decreed that those who are in prisons throughout the country and remain steadfast in their support for the Monafeqin (Mojahedin) are waging war on God and are condemned to execution."It goes on to entrust the decision to "death committees" - three-member panels consisting of an Islamic judge, a representative of the Ministry of Intelligence, and a state prosecutor. Prisoners were to be asked if they had changed loyalties and, if not, were to be executed.Montazeri, who states that 3,800 people had been killed by the end of the first fortnight of executions, includes his own correspondence with Khomeini, saying that the killings would be seen as "a vendetta" and would spark opposition to the regime. He wrote: "The execution of several thousand prisoners in a few days will not have positive repercussions and will not be mistake-free."The massacres, which came just before the Lockerbie bombing, were seen as a sop to the hardliners at a time when Khomeini was already in failing health and the battle for succession had begun between fundamentalists and moderates. He died the following year.According to testimony from prison officials - including Kamal Afkhami Ardekani, who formerly worked at Evin prison - recently given to United Nations human rights rapporteurs: "They would line up prisoners in a 14-by-five-metre hall in the central office building and then ask simply one question, 'What is your political affiliation?' Those who said the Mojahedin would be hanged from cranes in position in the car park behind the building."He went on to describe how, every half an hour from 7.30am to 5pm, 33 people were lifted on three forklift trucks to six cranes, each of which had five or six ropes. He said: "The process went on and on without interruption." In two weeks, 8,000 people were hanged. Similar carnage took place across the country.Many of those in the ruling council at the time of the 1988 massacre are still in power, including President Mohammed Khatami, who was the Director of Ideological and Cultural Affairs."The massacre may have happened 12 years ago, but the relevance is that these atrocities are still happening", said Mohammad Mohaddessin, the chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee of the Iranian National Council of Resistance (NCRI), the main opposition group, who was in London last week to present evidence to MPs.The NCRI has prepared files on 21 senior members of the regime whom it alleges were "principal protagonists of the massacre", including Mr Khatami and Ayatollah Ali Khameini, Iran's "Supreme Leader". Mr Mohaddessin will travel to New York to present the files to the UN and call for a tribunal to try them for crimes against humanity.Mr Mohaddessin said human rights abuses were continuing in Iran despite the election of Mr Khatami, who "presents himself as a reformist".Story from Telegraph News://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/iran/1321090/Khomeini-fatwa-%27led-to-killing-of-30%2C000-in-Iran%27.html

 

Ba Arezu-ye Movafaghiat, Sadegh

 


sadegh

Thanks again Mammad...the

by sadegh on

Thanks again Mammad...the chain murders are actually covered reasonably well in Ali Ansari's book Iran, Islam, and Democracy: The Politics of Managing Change. He does talk about the massacre of political prisoners at the end of the war but I am unable to recall his own take on the events. He definitely doesn't name all of the victims of the Chain Murders however. Could you possibly send me the article that you wrote if you still have it to hand? Also what is your opinion regarding Emami? Do you buy the idea that he was 'working alone' or on the authority of the highest echelons of the Islamic republic? Many people with good reason reckon the latter. I myself just haven't done the research to make an informed judgement on the matter.

Ba Arezu-ye Movafaghiat, Sadegh

 


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Niloufar

by American Wife (not verified) on

Very very well said.  Probably too "un" political a statement for most here but it was so much more meaningful because of that.  No blaming the situation on someone else...no excuses... just a rational explanation. And one that makes much more sense.  I found myself nodding in agreement throughout the whole piece and perhaps feeling a little sadder for it.  Sometimes extreme measures dilutes the personal aspect... the more drama, the more reaction.  And then it's not about the simple hopes of the people anymore, it's about defending against nuclear progress or the damned religious overtones.  It grows and grows and is fed by hatred and more hatred.  Sorry for the rambling but sometimes it seems so futile.

But... I also agree with you that it is unrealistic to think that the US will pursue any real aggression.  Call it posturizing or whatever, Dumb and his twin, Evil, can't be that stupid...

can they?


Mammad

Hey

by Mammad on

If you mean me, no, I am not Mammad Delshah, although I do have del-e shad!

Mammad


default

Mammad Delshad???

by hey (not verified) on

Mammad Delshad???


Mammad

Sadegh

by Mammad on

The Chain murders were those committed by Saeed Emami and his group from 1988-1998. It is believed that as many as 80 intellectuals, authors, poets, and dissidents may have been killed. In an article two years ago, I could give the name of 54 of them.

The Chain murders are different from the execution of the political prisoners at the end of Iran/Iraq war.

The first victim of Saeed Emami was probably Dr. Kazem Saami, a political prisoner of the Shah and a Minister in Mahdi Bazargan's government right after the revolution. He was a medical doctor, and led Jonbesh-e Enghelaabi Mardom-e Iran (Jaamaa) during the Shah. He was in his office in Tehran by ax and murdered.

 Regarding Fred, abs, haha, etc.: Their best treatment is ignoring them. They are not interested in a rational, civilized debate anyway.

Mammad


sadegh

Thanks Mammad

by sadegh on

Thank you Mammad for that detailed history. I knew that Saed Emami was involved in the chain murders but I didn't know he was also part of the mass murder of political prisoners at the end of the war. I completely agree with your comment that Khomeini is responsible since it happened on his watch, irrespective of whether there was a direct order or not. I would still like to see evidence of a direct order which is not apocryphal. I will investigate the matter further. Also Mammad Zion and Fred are not the same person. Zion is not Iranian and doesn't understand Farsi, Fred does. I think Fred might also be writing under the name of abc, hahaha and others.

Kaveh: thanks for the links - the youtube one doesn't seem to be working however.

abc: it's obvious you're the same person writing under different usernames. You're not fooling anyone. You regularly comment on my posts just for the pleasure of hanraguing and goading me with your childish and intellectually bankrupt tirades. I am cordial and respectful with those who behave in a similar manner. You act like a philistine so don't be surprised if I respond to you accordingly.

Ba Arezu-ye Movafaghiat, Sadegh

 


Niloufar Parsi

An extreme circularity

by Niloufar Parsi on

that spins itself into a spot, smaller than a fly on a wall that squeals 'circular' at others and too dizzy to recognise the world around it. A repetitive, meaningless play on tired words. 'Islamist', 'Anti-Semites', 'devil'. Empty poetry for the clueless, marginalised extremists incapable of comprehending compassion and understanding itself. Hiding behind riddles and duplicity, masking a soulless vacuum that sees virtuous leadership in alien concepts desperately short of any connection to its audience, its intended victims.


default

He did order the killings....

by KavehV (not verified) on

6) Do agree with those who believe that Khomeini was a criminal who killed thousands of innocent Iranians when he was in power (1979-1989)? Yes or no?

I have not seen much if any evidence of DIRECT orders from Khomeini - show me where they are and I'll gladly concede that the man HIMSELF is responsible for mass murder....

From his mouth:
//www.youtube.com/watch?v=h81E gKQLQs&feature=related

Check under Khomeini's order:
//en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1988_Massacre_of_Iran...

...and if you spend a little more time searching, you may even find a copy of the written document on the web.


Fred

The circular argument

by Fred on

The Islamist/Anti-Semites and their likeminded lefty strategic allies would have one believe there are no viable options to be had visa vie the Islamist republic and one has to come to accept the “devil” you have. Their self fulfilling circular argument go as follow, the people do not revolt against the regime for lack of leadership, and ergo they put up with the devil they know, they put up with the devil they know for the lack of leadership. What they invariably skip over is the Islamist regime’s meticulous observation to detect any sign of leadership and as soon as one is detected or is suspected of having the potential of is swiftly eliminated. The long list of murdered abd imprisoned leaders by the regime is a testament to this fact of living under the yoke of the Islamist republic. The Iranian people need help to break the logjam and it can and has to come in the form of moral and material support i.e. strike funds and alike and elimination of the sustenance of the regime.


Mammad

Sadegh

by Mammad on

Sadegh:

Thank you for an excellent piece.

Let me give you a piece of uninvited advice, although you know better:

You will never get anywhere with people like Fred, Zion (probably the same person), and people like them. These people say anything just to either "score a point," the way Zion does, or act like a smart ... without making any substansive comment, like Fred. These people want one and onlky one thing: Military attacks on Iran and/or sanctions, which is nothing short of war and, in fact, as Iraq experience demonstrated, will eventually lead to war. Therefore, these people are willing to say absolutely anything to advocate their goal. As you correctly pointed out, Fred is willing to use Ayatollah Montazeri in his "argument!" Live and learn! 

 

Mammad


Mammad

A bit of history

by Mammad on

A bit of history regarding some of the comments will be useful.

1. Who was responsible for the execution of over 4000 political prisoners at the end of Iran/Iraq war?

It was apparently Ayatollah Abdolkarim Mousavi Ardabili, who was chief of the Judiciary at that time, who asked Ayatollah Khomeini what to do with the political prisoners. According to Ayatollah Hossein Ali Montazeri, Ayatollah Khomeini responded that those who repent should be freed, and those who do not can be executed. Apparently, Ayatollah Khomeini wrote this at the bottom of the letter of Ayatollah Ardabili, but I have not seen it myself.

Then, a committee of three people, Hojatoleslam Raeisi (who is in the Judiciary now), Mostafa Pour Mohammadi (who was until three weeks ago the Interior Minister), and a 3rd person whom I do not remember, was formed and supervised this. Amnesty International has a comprehensive report about this.

There is no question that, even if Ayatollah Khomeini did not say those words, he was still largely responsible for the terrible episode, which I personally consider a crime against humanity, simply because he was the ruler. Power comes with responsibility.

By all acounts, neither Ayatollah Montazeri nor Ayatollah Khamenei, who was the President at that time, knew about the exchange between Ayatollahs Ardabili and Khomeini. When they found out, Ayatollah Montazeri protested and was sacked from the position of Deputy Leader, but Ayatollah Khamenei was silent and became the Leader in less than one year. That is the difference between an honest man who practiced what he preached, and a man who was interested only in power.

2. Was Ahmad Khomeini murdered?

Many months before his death, Ahmad Khomeini had started criticizing the ruling establishment. He once famously said that, "we cannot blame forever the US and the Shah for all of our problems." He even visited Ayatollah Montazeri (in whose downfall he played a leading role), apologized to him, and asked for his forgiveness.

The group led by Saeed Emami in the Intelligence Ministry (the same group that was responsible for the infamous Chain murders) decided that Ahmad Khomeini was becoming a danger to the establishment. Clearly, he could not be discredited. So, they decided to murder him. They got a fatwa authorizing his murder too. No one knows who gave the fatwa, but most people believe that it was Gholam Hossein Ezhei, the present Intelligence Minister.

Apparently, they murdered Ahmad Khomeini the way they killed my old friend, Dr. Majid Sharif, an outstanding human being who lived in Los Angeles before the Revolution and was studying physics, before going back to Iran and becoming a political activist. He used to go jugging early morning every day. One day he was kidnapped in Tehran as he was jugging. Days later his body was found. He had died of an apparent heart attack. But, later on, it turned out that the kidnappers had inserted some chemicals in his body that would cause heart attack or stroke. Apparently, Ahmad Khomeini was also killed that way. Majid was the only child of his parents. He was a fantastic young man.

How do we know this? After Saeed Emami and his group were arrested and interrogated, one day Hojatoleslam Niazi, who was chief of military judiciary and was handling the case, went to Hojatoleslam Hasan Khomeini and told him that, "it appears likely that Saeed Emami was also responsible for Ahmad Agha's death."

Emad Baghi, a brave investigative journalist and human rights advocate (he is currently jailed again), wrote about this. He was arrested for it, but Mr. Hasan Khomeini testified and confirmed the account. Still, Baghi was given a three year sentence which he served.

Mammad


Abarmard

niloufar well done

by Abarmard on

That's a wrap :)


default

Sadegh: You are a so called

by abc (not verified) on

Sadegh:
You are a so called atheist sophisticated intellectuals, engaging in massive amounts of verbiage , keeping up a facade of being so politically correct to the point of appearing fundamentalistic- a fundamentalism even more grotesque than what you criticize in others , your pedantism, your intellectual arrogance, your lack of humility, your self rightenousness, your politically holier than thou bordering on messianic exuberance, leaves me appalled everytime I read one of your pedantic diatribes.

You dedicate a lot of your time and energy preaching bigoted hate-filled diatribe and when you are caught you foam at the mouth. Another F for you . F for failing to impress just like your rigid communist brethrens. Won't even bother saying more , simply worthless ...

P.S. I don't think you will be allowed entry anywhere near the U.S. Stay where you are.


Natalia Alvarado-Alvarez

Dear Niloufar Parsi

by Natalia Alvarado-Alvarez on

Thank you for your well thought out and written response.

So part of it still leads to the "man in the white horse". There is still not a clear solution worth risking everything for. I can understand this as a parent. Yes, it makes sense.

So, instead they make what Mehdi has called evolutionary changes rather than a revolutionary change.

 

 

Solh va Doosti

Natalia


Niloufar Parsi

Natalia, American

by Niloufar Parsi on

'Why have they not changed it? What are they waiting for? Who are they waiting for?'

Good question Natalia. Let me give it a go:

My conclusion is simply that no viable alternative is at hand for the great majority of Iranians. They are not convinced by any particular ready-made external option on the table and are searching for a home-grown solution. Iranians largely remain a deeply religious lot, though this is in retreat, especially at the political level, but not enough to constitute an uprising.

Iran has a long history of despotism that is very hard to shake off. The Constitutional revolution was one attempt, but it ended up in the despotic rule of Reza Shah, an Attaturk wanna-be with much gutso and little intelligence. By the end of WWII, Turkey was decades ahead of Iran on many fronts and Reza Shah was breezed rather than blown out of Iran by the Allies.

An attempt at representative democracy failed to take root among Iranians after WWII, and lost much credibility with the general public once the same powers that had imposed it from above got rid of it a short decade later. The Shah was their clear collaborator. That started the fall the monarchy as an institution. 

Post-1954 Iran was a nation basically at war with itself on cultural and political levels, and erupted into nationwide civil disobedience over two decades later when the Shah and his American backers were associated with every single thing that was wrong with the country.

But the revolution went horribly wrong once khomeini took over its leadership. Iranian servitude to clerical rule truly exposed itself. Since then of course it has been a very complicated process internally and externally with a great deal of negative external meddling in the region.

Out of this mess, people are weary of more revolution as the outcome can be totally unpredictable and there is no clear objective to fight for. Just look at the countries all around Iran. Simple fighting Against something is not enough to mobilise a nation that has had its optimism shattered on so many fronts and occasions,

I agree with the tone of your question, and the conclusions that you imply if I understood you right: If any of the alternatives that various people are promoting here were truly the answer that the people of Iran wanted, then they would be out in the streets. But they do not feel that they have the answer they want - not enough of them anyhow. For now, the feeling is: better the devil we know. Better to concentrate on putting food on the table instead, get some decent education for the kids and reform ourselves.

Peace!


sadegh

re: abc

by sadegh on

I stated that I oppose realpolitik on NORMATIVE grounds, but from a realpolitik prespective that it becomes intelligible - I TOTALLY REJECT IT ON MORAL GROUNDS...wow, at least if you're going to try and be clever don't be so patently mediocre...For someone who lives in the US your English certainly needs brushing up...

Ba Arezu-ye Movafaghiat, Sadegh

 


sadegh

Niloufar jan

by sadegh on

I agree with much of what you have said. The ex-CIA Case Officer Robert Baer has said that oil prices exclude the possibility of war and that the US is merely sabre rattling. Finkelstein also seems to think that the Israeli war games are just a matter of upping the ante in terms of intimidation and psychological warfare. All rational considerations would lead one to think that an attack on Iran is highly unlikely, even by means of Israeli proxy.

I am just worried by what I've been reading i.e. that Bush and Cheney are obsessed with attacking Iran before they leave office. Norman Podhoretz the crazed father of neoconservatism has spoken with Bush and has said he believes an attack highly likely. Bolton for all his idiocy does know people in high places and so may have caught a whiff of something. Who knows? It's anyone's guess...The only thing however is that the doctrine of 'manifest destiny' is anything but rational and is shot through with delusions of grandeur; that is exactly why it is so dangerous. It's his 'divine' mission to bring 'liberty' and 'justice' to all, first and foremost big oil of course... 

Ba Arezu-ye Movafaghiat, Sadegh

 


sadegh

Thanks Fred, so it's in the

by sadegh on

Thanks Fred, so it's in the Montazeri's memoirs? So you'll trust the words of a mullah when it suits you huh? Interesting...I actually have them but since they're nearly 1000 pages I haven't come across the sections in question. Firstly, I said that I have not seen evidence of a DIRECT ORDER from Khomeini NOT THAT THE KILLINGS DID NOT take place. I also said that I had no reason to doubt the charges, but that I merely preferred to see the evidence for myself. There is nothing wrong with that. Grow up please...

Ba Arezu-ye Movafaghiat, Sadegh

 


Niloufar Parsi

Sadegh jan

by Niloufar Parsi on

It's a well argued piece, but I am still not convinced that an attack is in the offing. You will hve noticed that in the middle of all this the US is contemplating moving out of the Swiss office and opening up a new interests section in Tehran.

Bolton is a charlatan and a political prostitute who was among the first to urge an attack on Iraq and the first to openly and remorselessly admit that there were no weapons found without a hint of any problem with the whole situation, He is no decision-maker.

Now if we take an extreme structualist look at the situation, there are few parralels with Iraq. A war with Iraq was favoured by some key corporate interests mainly in the oil and military industires. They thought they would gain, but only the military ones have so far. But they know that the enterprise has cost Their political system dearly in terms of legitimacy.

The oil lobby knows that it cannot touch Iran's oil. And that Iran can disrupt a lot of their business in the event of a war. 

The military industries too have their hands tied. They are dependent on a reasonably sound economic situation in America otherwise the US government (or other governments) cannot pay for their services. 

In fact, since Vietnam, the US military has never chosen to face a formidable enemy capable of hitting back. And Still they are stuck against soft targets such as Afghanistan and Iraq with a demoralised force. Apparently, Pentagon is firmly against a war. 

And the US economy is down in the dumps and US taxpayers would not support another war. They just cannot afford it.

I admit that I may have allowed emotions to persuade me to hang on to hope. I don't know, but there are several strong rational reasons against a war. I hope a minimum of rationality is a correct assumption for analyzing international relations. But perhaps that time is over. 


Fred

The time consuming cut&pastes

by Fred on

Since you’ve understandably been too busy fishing for “evidence” to substantiate your as of late  “liberal Democratic” point of views which essentially amounts to a never ending cut and paste anti-Semantic diatribes under the auspices of “Anti-Zionism”,-you have not had the time to find the source for Khomeini’s massacre order ergo your “tentative yes”. You will find it in his at the time heir apparent, Montazeri’s, book along with the copy of the actual massacre letter. Knowing fully well that it will not be satisfactory and to your liking, as to your childish question of war or no, believe it or not there are those of us who are “extremists” against the Islamist Republic’s crimes and still manage to just as extremely despise war.


default

Wow!

by Anonymous-today (not verified) on

The info on Natanz "leaked" thru MEK was fed to them by Israeli intelligence! (listen to Ritter's interview) Wow, is there anything MEK won't do?


sadegh

We're devils now???!!!

by sadegh on

We're devils now???!!! Hilarious, get off your sanctimonious pedestal already…

Ba Arezu-ye Movafaghiat, Sadegh

 


sadegh

At least I had the courage

by sadegh on

At least I had the courage to answer the questions Fred...When will you? Hypocrite...

Ba Arezu-ye Movafaghiat, Sadegh