by FG

In a lengthy analytical gem in which he breaks with the wisdom of most media experts, James Miller of Enduring America reaches the first two conclusions above and I agree. When you look at the reasoning he puts forth, I think you will too. The third conclusion in the above header is my own. I'm very interested in what Mr. Miller's conclusions mean for Iran.

Wanting to cooperate fully with the rules here, I've post a link to Miller's analysis in the "news" section along with the original heading (required but truncated to fit) which implies a mere history of the FSA. Thus, many might miss a masterpiece--must reading for ALL Iranians, inluding regime insiders faced with making key decisions, fatal or otherwise.


As you read Miller's analysis, ask yourself whether the FSA's tactics could work in Iran. Also, assuming Khamenei uses air power to slaughter protestors, would Iranian also request enforcement of a "no fly zone?" If so, would they have better luck getting the West to agree? Iran is far more vulnerable to a "no fly zone" for geographical reasons. It lacks the air defenses to deter one. With lots of motive for paying back the regime (the Lebanon marine barracks, Al Quds execution of five US soldiers dragged across Iraq's border and executed in Irans, advanced IEDs) the West has more motive to say, "yes." Finally it has little reason to fear radical Islamists would reap benefits, producing a future boomerang.

In the following short analysis (subposted at EA) I look at what is likely to set off a similar uprising, how Khamenei is likely to react and what must go before protests start if rationale regime insiders hope for a soft landing. So here it is:


Iran today resembles a kitchen in which someone turned on all gas burners and left the room--an unsustainable situation. A regime faced with worsening economic conditions, increased repression, a near total loss of legitimacy and a growing sense of hopelessness is inherently unstable and unviable. Yet nothing will divert Khamenei and his reactionary core, lulled into "We showed 'em" at present and already warning of mass public skull crushing (a la Assad) should demonstrations restart. ("It worked once so...:)

No amount of violence can save the IRI now, as realists know or might grasp if they read Miller's article. No soft landing is conceivable once the public rises up and Khamenei begins the promised skullcracking. Thus he must be removed--either by coup (improbable) or by death (possible but unlikely)--before the spark is lit. In the latter case, the public will not tolerate any attempt to maintain the Islamic Republic or Islamist rule in Iran, where both are too tainted. Given the bloody alternative, the public might accept a temporary "unity government" in which hardline ideologists are ousted, the worst thugs and torturers arrested, and arrangements for a new and secular constitution drawn up.


more from FG

FG, Great NEWS

by Azarbanoo on

Two Ambasadors of ASAD regime defected today.  Hopefully we get rid of criminal islamists soon in IRAN too.


Assad fall will threaten pro-IRI regime in Iraq & Hezbollah

by FG on

 The fall of Assad won't just undermine pro-IRI factions in Lebanon (Hezbollah) but will have a similar effect in Iran, argues

Comparing Syria to a melting block of ice, Stratford suggests a new and pro-Sunni regime, faced with the problem of what to do with Sunni jihadis will ship them off to Iraq to take on a pro-IRI regime there.    Hence, the IRI could find itself bogged down there, trying to preserve an ally, at the worst possible time.

See:  //




Miller responds to Iran comparison

by FG on

His Response: 

You raise many interesting questions about Iran, and the possible consequences for the regime if Assad falls. Syria very well may be a catalyst for change in Iran. Certainly, the fall of the Assad regime will resonated there. As you note, and as Nick Kristof mentioned upon returning from his trip, Iran has many similarities to pre-revolution Syria, or Egypt, or Tunisia. The ingredients are there. Rather than attempt to reform in order to head off these eventualities, the government of Iran has, in some ways, doubled down - increasing their repressive strategies in an attempt to exert more control.

That plan will likely backfire, but time will tell.


Before & After videos: 3 tanks attack, 3 tanks destroyed

by FG on


Major new defection today & 2 intelligence generals captured

by FG on


From a Guardian Mideast roundup:


1. The Syrian ambassador to Iraq, Nawaf al-Fares, a key member of Assad's circle--has defected and says others will follow....Fares and Tlass are leading and trusted members of the Sunni establishment who worked closely with Syria's Alawite-based leadership..Fares is considered to be highly influential among the tribal groups in eastern Syria, where regime forces have faced an increasingly organised guerilla force since late spring..

2.   In a further blow to the regime, which has so far not seen large numbers of important officials leave its ranks, two generals from the country's intelligence services are believed to have been captured last week by opposition guerrillas. Major General Faraj al-Maket and General Munair al-Ahmed Shlaybi, from the Palestinian Branch of military intelligence were shown on an online video claiming they had been captured in late June. Both appeared to have been beaten.

The Palestinian Branch is one of Syria's two main intelligence organisations and has been central to the regime crackdown on dissent, which started last March and has now grown into a full-blown insurgency led by a predominantly Sunni opposition movement.