A History of the (Syrian) Insurgency
Enduring America / James Miller
11-Jul-2012 (3 comments)

The evidence is clear. The Free Syrian Army is winning this war, and the Assad regime has been unable to reverse that trend in recent weeks....

Common knowledge and most expert analysts would suggest that the Assad regime is still extremely strong, and the fledgling insurgency, though surging, does not pose an immediate challenge to the regime. Assad continues to have support from Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah, as well as China, sections of the Syrian population such as most of the Alawite community, and most of his military. The regime has fairly advanced weapon systems capable of deterring any potential foreign intervention. The end is not near, and this conflict could last well beyond the end of the year.

However, the experts have been wrong before, and the evidence from the ground in Syria does not fit their predictions. The regime has lost several military installations, large areas of territorial control, several hundred soldiers to casualties and hundreds more to defections, and at least two helicopters and 40 armoured vehicles --- all in a single week. The Assad regime is like a sharpened pencil pushing on the rock of an insurgency: the harder it pushes, the more its strength crumbles.

recommended by FG



Thanks for sharing

by JustAnIranian on

Counting every single minute till Bashar Assads regime falls. Then it is the turn of the Islamic Republic. 



 This is excellent news.

by vildemose on

 This is excellent news. God Speed.


All Oppression Creates a State of War--Simone De Beauvoir


FSA is winning & Iranians can do the same.

by FG on

Millers analysis is a gem and must reading for Iranians--both for those who despise the regime and for insiders who need to look for a soft landing.  Don't miss a word of it.

It's a shame I can't post Miller's analysis here without starting with the original heading which hardly gives an idea of how explosive Miller's analysis is and what it means for Iranians.    So many may miss it, expecting a mere historical account.

If I were allowed to create my own header--not stick to the original--I'd use exactly what you see above.   That would get some attention.  Miller's conclusion is so at odds with mainstream journalists who really are missing the most important developments.  I agree totally with Miller on that.

I also wrote a subpost at EA on the relevance to Iran and Iranians of these developments.  Don't miss it.



In a subpost at EA, I