What would Iran have looked like if Shah had stayed.

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What would Iran have looked like if Shah had stayed.
by Esfand Aashena
01-Nov-2011
 

Imagine for a moment that somehow Shah would have beaten his cancer in a week and would jet back to Iran to crush the uprisings and put Khomeini on trial and killed as many as it took to put order back in the streets.

It is 1983 and despite the bitter anger that people felt about the mass killings and the blistering UN Human Rights violation reports on Iran that went to Security Council but was vetoed by Ronald Reagan the country has moved on from 1979.

Reza Pahlavi II has come back from Houston with a degree in Liberal Arts and has taken over some causes here and there.  Shah had ordered some reforms and now people can vote for their representatives in Majlis and Senate but the candidates are filtered through a committee appointed by the Shah.

Shah has taken a back from the day to day ruling and spends most of his time building palaces and resorts in various parts of the country.  He starts a project in Gheshm Island to turn it into a mecca for shopping and sporting venues.

Shah dies in 2004 at the age of 85 at the height of the Iraq war and Reza Pahlavi II is coronated in a lavish ceremony and country put on a 3 day holiday to celebrate.  Upon taking power he orders new sets of reforms to change the subsidy plans into voucher plans in order to stabilize the country after Iran's foreign debts become harder to pay.  Riots ensue which he brutally cracks down that surprises observers who thought that a Houston educated man should have responded differently.

He continues to rule by suppressing dissent until 2011 when Arab Spring is in full swing.  USA is pulling out of Iraq and things are all messed up when I suddenly wake up!  I get up and go to the bathroom and say to myself I need to slow down on spicy food at night!

Photo caption: oil painting for sale at the gift shop of Hotel Hyatt (now Parsian) near Namak Abrood.

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more from Esfand Aashena
 
Esfand Aashena

If Shah had stayed Arab Spring would've been Arab Invasion!

by Esfand Aashena on

Everything is sacred


amirparvizforsecularmonarchy

Ali Thank you, that was really a great read.

by amirparvizforsecularmonarchy on

You know I really felt like I knew what was being discussed based on personal experience, the farr is a spiritual concept, you say to me spirituality chi eh, the farr or source of great light is something we can connect to and build a relationship with, a part of our self yet higher consciousness, in new age talk it is a connection with our love based higher self a truly infinite power.  It is good thoughts, good words, good deeds, it is a gift that when one connects with it, obeys it and lives their life from that place, it gives you a clear and guided path.  What I never realized and now it makes sense is that it dispels and removes the lie.

You pointed me towards a great subject, living by the creed, to believe in the life of love, to walk in the way of honor, to serve in the light of truth is just words but having a personal relationship with ones farr/love based higher self makes these words have real meaning.


alimostofi

Homework: Farr ....

by alimostofi on


alimostofi

Amir: Farr and The Royal

by alimostofi on

Amir: Farr and The Royal Institution of Iran. .......

There is a lot of Iranian mythology involved here. I am not about to give you all that now. HiM who is a Moslem is basically ill equppied to understand this. The situation can be rectified if HIM makes fundamental changes to his attitude as the person trusted to run The Royal Institution of Iran. Accepting non-violence is one small step. Other Mazdayasna principles need to e put in modern context. And no balls are required. Think as an Iranian.

Ali Mostofi

http://twitter.com/alimostofi

 


amirparvizforsecularmonarchy

Ali please explain yourself

by amirparvizforsecularmonarchy on

"I am saying that The Pahlavis got involved in politics and made a bad example."  They got lied about, politically assasinated and betrayed and you say they made a bad example, for Ahuras sake tell me what you mean, they served iran, gave so much sweat and tears, defended the entire region and brought peace.

Just tell me one thing, you're not one of those Monarchists that believes in the propaganda of the Shah being a Dictator, Corrupt, Repressive?


Esfand Aashena

بابا انقدر شلوغش نکنید این جا رو با این مزخرفات!

Esfand Aashena


Everything is sacred


amirparvizforsecularmonarchy

Which zardoshti philosophy book did you get that from

by amirparvizforsecularmonarchy on

His Farr has been very far for quite some time.  You have balls the size of Alborz if you believe what you say in this era


alimostofi

Amir: Holy Mandate

by alimostofi on

Amir: Holy Mandate .......

The Farr of The Shahanshah of Iran is Legendary. This force protects The Royal Institution. It is very powerful if it is done peacefully and unselfishly. You cannot understand this within modern logic.

Ali Mostofi

http://twitter.com/alimostofi

 


amirparvizforsecularmonarchy

Ali, he can't do the right thing and explain his lawful mandate

by amirparvizforsecularmonarchy on

You can't even imagine what the west did when he swore an oath as king, don't imagine for a second he can act freely, while in exile without protection.  He goes against the USA/UK/France's Love of Islam for Iran and the middle east/north africa he will be in the same predicaent as his brother.  That's serious stuff.


alimostofi

Amir: keep digging you will

by alimostofi on

Amir: keep digging you will find the report.

Ali Mostofi

http://twitter.com/alimostofi

 


alimostofi

Amir: HIM needs to explain

by alimostofi on

Amir: HIM needs to explain his mandate. ........

Constitutionally he has a job to. He needs to show his action. All he has to do is to say I am returning with the national flag.

Ali Mostofi

http://twitter.com/alimostofi

 


amirparvizforsecularmonarchy

Ali good link, however it shows that military is 1/3 of Federal

by amirparvizforsecularmonarchy on

spending, not GDP which is 4 to 5 times that.

Other than that minor data, your over all point is correct looking at GDP during Korea and Vietnam, basically it went from 6 % GDP to 25% GDP an explosion of manufacturing.


amirparvizforsecularmonarchy

You're philosophically right ali about now and culture at risk,

by amirparvizforsecularmonarchy on

However he can't stand up to USA/France/UK policy for last 32 years, if he held any other position he'd be a dead king which serves no one.

Anglo you are right too.

 


alimostofi

Anglophile: you are right.

by alimostofi on

Anglophile: you are right. ..........

I am saying that The Pahlavis got involved in politics and made a bad example. Ironically the only time The Royal Institution has a mandate to act, is when the culture of Iran is at risk, as now. So what is HIM doing? He is being sheepish and hiding under the veil of democracy. He actually has a job to do now.

Ali Mostofi

http://twitter.com/alimostofi

 


alimostofi

Anglophile: you are right.

by alimostofi on

Anglophile: you are right. ..........

I am saying that The Pahlavis got involved in politics and made a bad example. Ironically the only time The Royal Institution has a mandate to act, is when the cutlure of Iran is at risk, as now. So what is HIM doing? He is being sheepish and hiding under the veil of democracy. He actually has a job to do now.

Ali Mostofi

http://twitter.com/alimostofi

 


anglophile

Ali joon Are you OK?

by anglophile on

"The Royal Institution of Iran is outside the realm of politics. " Since when has these revelations occured to you? The only periods that monarchy and politics were partially separated were for a brief period during the reign of Ahmad the qajar and from 1941 to 1953. It is not full moon yet! 

alimostofi

Amir here is one link:

by alimostofi on

Amir here is one link:

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:U.S._Federal_S...

And that's just the public sector. Google it. The private sector especially the private contractors make it very large. That is why 9/11 was set up.

Ali Mostofi

http://twitter.com/alimostofi

 


amirparvizforsecularmonarchy

Based on the level of team work, co-operation & loyalty in Iran

by amirparvizforsecularmonarchy on

The Idea of him staying was an impossibility, he had a line of people from tehran to Chaharbahar ready to betray him.


amirparvizforsecularmonarchy

Where did you get, "The US military is a third of US GDP."

by amirparvizforsecularmonarchy on

I thought all manufacturing in total in the USA was 30% of GDP, the rest the service economy.  During a major war, yes it ramps up.  Sources?


Esfand Aashena

If Shah had stayed Ahmadi would've wiped Palestine off the map!

by Esfand Aashena on

Everything is sacred


alimostofi

History lesson

by alimostofi on

History lesson ............

The Royal Institution of Iran is outside the realm of politics. But the Pahlavis never acknowledged this. Bless him, Reza Khan wanted a Republic, and it was The Hezbollah Party in Iran then that did not want a Kamal Ataturk II.

The adapted Belgian Constitution that included authorities for Ayatollahs gave certain religious rights in Iranian government.

The fact that the Pahlavis crossed the dividing line between The Royal Institution of Iran and politics, is the Karma they have to bear. It is not the fault of The Royal Institution of Iran. By the way Cyrus Reza Pahlavi to this day wants to be a political candidate and does not carry his Royal Mandate, but that's a whole other story.

So what should have been done, was to explain the role of The Royal Institution and then amend The 1906 Constitution to remove the "Ayatollah Clause" as it were.

As I have written, the Shah felt he was the "Saviour of the West" against Kianouri's Tudeh inroads in Iran, which ironically helped the Generals make a lot of money from Lockheed etc.

The US military is a third of US GDP. It wanted the Shah to attack Saddam. He refused, so they shipped in Khomeini to create more military business, and he and The Hezbollah Party in Iran are doing a grand job for the US.

What the Shah did was to stoop to politics, instead of letting them have their own fight in the political arena. He needed to tell all that he is above politics and left the country for free elections within the new Iranian Constitution. The Judiciary would then have taken its time to look at it and make the appropriate amendments in slow nonviolent way whilst the army kept the peace.

The story actually has it, that Fardust convinced Bagheri that Gharabaghi and his 50,000 men do not need to bring order to Iran as the Constitution stated that the army can only be used if the borders are attacked. That was a lie. He then convinced the army that Khomeini would give them amnesty. That is what the US wanted and that is why Khomenini was flown in.

Simple.

Ali Mostofi

http://twitter.com/alimostofi

 


amirparvizforsecularmonarchy

I know plenty of authorities and maybe the name is different

by amirparvizforsecularmonarchy on

no Dr Sadighi was ever offered to be PM, I just asked.  Shah said to those around him, if I was not the King as an ordinary iranian I would fight, ill health or not for my belief in the constitution and the monarchy both of which I have upheld, but I am the king so I can not exercise absolute power on my own people, a dictator can but I can't. 

This left it to the generals to defend the constitution and his message to them was that they have a legal obligation to defend the constitution and it was never received, infact We were all betrayed, as was the shah by garrabaghi whom he sent the message to directly.  The late shah spoke about it and said this one general betrayed all others by not telling them that they should not bow down to US pressure by Huyser and should assume their lawful duties.  They did not defend the PM or the constitution and that is why the rest is history....

So really if shah had stayed he would have had to serve a nation of traitors, who themselves had 4 choices 1) support the lawful king, or if you betray him pick your traitor 2) support bakhtiyar a traitor for uk 3) support mlitary rule, led by a traitor for uk France/gharabaghi 4) support knomeini a traitor for uk and islam. Traitors rarely have good choices in life, even though they think they have a sweet future infront of them.  With time and much more pain and agony they will learn.

 


religionoutofgovernment

If The Shah had stayed

by religionoutofgovernment on

We are asking if the Shah had stayed, meaning if he had not left the country in January 1979.

Obviously, we know that he would have died shortly after due to his cancer. Indeed, his slow reaction to the events was at least partially due to his illness and the medications he was taking. If he stayed his only option would have been to abdicate to his son soon after 1979.

The Shah offered Dr. Sadighi to become prime minister in late 1978. Dr. Sadighi wanted the Shah to stay in the country and not leave. But the shah wanted to leave and this was one reason for him not going through with Sadighi and choosing Bakhtiar. You can argue that he made the decision to leave because he was weak as he had threatedned to leave or left on many previous occasions since 1941. Or you may argue that he left under the pressure from Sullivan and the Amercans. One thing is for sure, he felt betrayed by the people he thought he had served. You can call him out of touch with reality, but he was not a brutal dictator and could have stayed and killed many more people. 

If he had listened to Sadighi, instead of listening to Americans and not left the country, the army would not have given up to Khomeini. Sadighi would have had a much better chance to implement reforms and stand up to Khomeini. In ordinary times, the shah would have tried to come back as a dictator, but in those conditions, with him dying of cancer that would not have happened. He would abdicate to his son, who was too young to be a strong man. The goverment of Sadighi would have had a very good chance of continuing with democratic reforms and establishing a long lasting democracy. Of course Sadighi was backstabbed by other so called "liberals/democrats" ie Sanjabi, Forouhar and also by Islamic fraction of the liberals ie Bazargan and Nehzate Azadi. The rest is history..... 


Esfand Aashena

If Shah had stayed we'd have had a White Islamic Revolution!

by Esfand Aashena on

Everything is sacred


amirparvizforsecularmonarchy

religionoutofgovernment read some plato/socrates

by amirparvizforsecularmonarchy on

You said, He was a Dictator.

My view is there are no patriotic dictators.  I add dictators if one understands their meaning cannot be benevolent.

That's why I say, and I know, that the Shah was no Dictator/Oppressor,
people that experienced the IRI now know what an oppressor is/dictator.
Shah was a Freedom creating Liberator and sadly he just never had the
educated people to know that.  Some people eroniously think if you don't
have a democracy you are a dictator.    

If he was a dictator/oppressor give me one example of when he acted with absolute power.  Forget words/show me a single action. QED


Mash Ghasem

Parts of a respond on HIM

by Mash Ghasem on

Nadan-e doost!

Reza Shah's forceful manners and lack of education,...ended in abject failure by his son in the form of a single-party, comical rule of the Rastakhiz party!

For the full text,

http://iranian.com/main/2011/oct/history-will-...


amirparvizforsecularmonarchy

There are many ideoligcally bankrupt entities among us

by amirparvizforsecularmonarchy on

The Big ones Outside Iran include even the Liberals/Democrats who can't even see they made such a big mistake and were extremely foolish/fooled to go down this path and have caused so much grief, suffering and chaos, they ironically show that they too are among the most intolerant people with respect to their views.

Shocking level of ignorance to just throw out a comment after what we have experienced since he left.  Well said.


religionoutofgovernment

Shah

by religionoutofgovernment on

I am no fan of the late Shah, but it is mind boggling how people equate him with the Mullas. It seems like this is coming mainly from the ideologically bankrupt communists/socialists.

For a moment leave your politcs aside and look at life under the Shah and life under Mullahs for an average Iranian family. Do you honestly belive the experience is the same. Do you really believe that the level of atrocities commited are equal? Some of you need a reality check. It is not just about making a comment in a blog! it is about real life of real people, which includes not just political freedom but also economic and social freedoms.

As much as I belive he was a dictator, I do appreciate his stance sgainst the communists.


Esfand Aashena

If Shah had stayed Guantanamo detainees would be housed in Iran!

by Esfand Aashena on

Everything is sacred


amirparvizforsecularmonarchy

If shah had stayed based on the wisdom of the people,

by amirparvizforsecularmonarchy on

then things would be alot different.  As I have pointed out, Irans economy was 9th largest in the world and getting better, we would have enjoyed being in the top 5 for most of the last 20 years, not to mention if shah had stayed, his son would have gradually started reforms, by now we would be a true democracy most likely in the European/Japanes sense.

All the humans right abuses of the last 32 years would not have happened, neither the million or more estimated dead fighting iraq (others say 500,000), like the reporter to the UN said over 300 people murdered this year through executions without trial and none of them listed on the official figures given would not have happened, they would all and the 20,000 others executed enjoyed free education and health care.

Instead we all got far worse. 

And the funny thing is, the pahlavi bitching never really died down, still plenty of ignorance among the masses.  Taa Khar hast, Akhoond chera ra bereh, magar maraz dareh ke rah bereh havakht savar eh melat misheh va, be onn che ke as khoshbakhti melat ro bad badkht kardeh.