Analysis: Why Khamaneh-ee ordered the arrest of Mousavi and Karoubi now?


by aynak


(By Majid Mohamadi)

Key points:

1:Pressure from groups withing the regime, who have been asking for prosecution and even execution of Karoubi and Mousavi can not be the reason behind this arrests.   These pressures have existed even days after the coup.

2:Inability of the regime to control the crowd, from  calls for demonstrations by Karoubi and Mousavi, also, can  not explain this, as the regime has been very brutal and successful in beating/injuring and killing demonstrators.

So what where the motivation/reasons for these arrests?

1:Continued voice of opposition to the regime from within:

Karoubi and Mousavi's positions represent the voice of significant portion of internal oppositon.Karoubi and Mousavis action  from INSIDE iran, resonates well in various media accross the globe.  Drawing parallels between Khamaneh-ee and Ben-Ali and Mubark has truly embarrassed the regime, particularly at a time when the regime is trying to misinterpret calls for democracy and freedom in Arab world for its own purposes.

2:Progression of reform movement:

After the huge wave of arrests of known forces within reform movement (formerly with the regime), who did not play a major role in street demonstrations, neither in terms of organzing nor encouraging people to attend, they have lost all hopes of regimes reformability.   This is fast turning everyone to be asking for regime change, from inside Iran.

3:Increase in internal powerstruggle:

The increase in power struggle between the camps in pwoer (i.e Ahmadi-nejad vs Khamanee-eh vs Bazar) can be the cause for diversion to make it a 2 progned fight.  (i.e Khodie-Nakhodie)  That is to refocus the attention of the powerstruggle to now outside the power circle, to unite them and stop their attack against each other.  (Rezai, Ahmadi-Nejad, Larijanee, Motalefeh, ....)   It also forces the hands of people sitting on the fence to side with the regime or ...

4:Fear of fall of regime:

With the fall of other regimes in the region, the cost/danger of people like Karoubi and Mousavi remaining outside is more than if they are arrested, in their view.   Otherwise the arrest would not have taken place.   They fear street protests similar to Egypt, etc will get out of control and they believe in their own instability more than anything else.

5:Send the clear message to rest of reform movement (Khatami ...??)

You have to side either with the reigme (like Montajab Nia, Ansari) or get eliminated quickly.

6:Paying higher cost to avoid smaller cost:

These arrests will make things worse:

a:First: in Prison, Mousavi and Karoubi will be defacto leaders of oppositon and will be supported by all forces and unite all to fight this regime.   This will have a bigger impact in uniting the opposition than uniting the regime forces. 

b:Second: after their arrest leadership will be moved to outside the country and beyond  regimes control.

c:Third, one part of reform movement that was  on the fence like Khatami will have to make their position very clear and side with Karoubi Mousavi

d: Forth, those section of reform movement who were critical of the regime but still passive will be radicalized

e:Firfth, the desire of the regime is to put fear even among their own ranks:  If the ex- head of Majless and ex-Prime minister is not safe from illegal arrest who will be?


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