Who said Iraq will be a Qaedistan?


AmirAshkan Pishroo
by AmirAshkan Pishroo

Renowned Islamism scholar Oliver Roy has claimed that “One of the key questions in the U.S. presidential race is what will happen if U.S. troops leave Iraq, (The International Herald Tribune). I am not sure which U.S. presidential race, 2004 or 2008, Professor Roy has in mind. For anyone following the present race knows that Iraq is not the key question, let alone the concern about the aftermath of U.S. leaving Iraq.

Having arbitrarily established American mind-set for the presidential race, he goes on to say that “Of course nobody knows for sure. But I can say this: Al Qaeda will not take power and establish an Islamic state.” Though this a good news, the question is: What expert or scholar, who knows what is going on in the Middle East, has ever mentioned about the slightest possibility for al-Qaeda to take over in Iraq, to begin with?

For good reason: if Middle Eastern experts agree on anything, it is that a premature withdrawal of U.S. forces will ignite a civil war in Iraq with an obvious result: The Iraqi Shi’as would have Arab Sunnis for lunch, and the Iraqi Kurds, in association with Shi’as, would have the rest for desserts.

After reassuring us that al-Qaeda will not take power, Professor Roy advises Western forces to leave Iraq: “It would have been better to concentrate the Western forces on Afghanistan, which has been the real cradle of Al Qaeda. If only part of the brains and armor devoted to the “surge” in Iraq had been devoted to Afghanistan, instead of the incessant turnover of disparaged NATO troops with little knowledge of the country, things would have been better.”

The biggest problem for the time being seems to revolve around the transfer of sovereignty, and who occupies the driver’s seat in Iraq. Roy’s choice is clear: as long as there will be no Qaedistan, anything goes, as if though there is no natural candidate for saving the state.

Here it helps to remember that the Iraqi elected government did not exist as a union of prominent personalities, it was the United States who made it possible for them to join the dance, and it is the United States and the Iraqi government who will decide that dance is over and that the time has come for U.S. to return home.


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AmirAshkan Pishroo

Dear Adam-e Irani

by AmirAshkan Pishroo on

As bin Laden correctly foresaw, it is democracy in Iraq that would be toxic to his cause. But what the Americans have done is help Iraqis find their way toward pluralistic politics and democracy, even as al Qaeda's cruelty and the Egyptian and Saudi Arabian engines of jihadism have rallied against a democratic Iraq.

My disagreement with the Bush administration is that they failed to execute effectively the requirements for pacifying and reconstructing Iraq.

Thanks for your informed comment.



SCIRI and Dawa are Iran's real clients

by Adam-e Irani (not verified) on

It is the SCIRI and Dawa parties, i.e. the joint U.S.-Iranian agents serving as the figureheads of the current puppet regime in Baghdad that is collaborating with the U.S. occupation army, who are the true proteges of the Islamic Republic (going back to 1982 when SCIRI was established in Tehran at the behest of Khomeini; in addition, numerous leading Dawa members lived in Iran with the permission of Khomeini's regime). It's funny how Washington's propagandists are willing to praise Shia Islamists as long as those Islamists are willing to collaborate with Uncle Sam and do its bidding. In other words, Washington's propagandists have no principles whatsoever and only know how to worship U.S. power for the right price ($$$). But then again, I think we all knew that already...

AmirAshkan Pishroo

Dear samsam

by AmirAshkan Pishroo on

History will repeat itself in a comic way...wow!...

Hegel once said world-historical facts and personages occur, as it were, twice.

Marx noted that “Hegel has forgotten to add: the first time as tragedy, the second as farce.”


Meanwhile Moqtada Sadr is being prepped up in Qom

by samsam1111 on


As a mini Khomeini in the grand scheme of  Mullah,s Pan-Ommatist agenda. He will return to Iraq in 2010 as a fully badged Ayatollah to unite the Shia Ommats of Iraq & V-ran under the supervision of Qom. Sisstani,s role will be marginalized as Shariatmadari was and the gates of Tisphoon is once gain crushed by Pan-Ommatist but this time the crusading Ommatist hordes rush from the East "V-ran" and not from the south as in 637AD..Now V-ran to it,s neighbor is what Hejaz was to Persia. History will repeat itself in a comic way...wow!...