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Egypt Today, Iran Tomorrow?
10-Feb-2011
Since the Egyptian uprising began, Iran's opposition figures inside and outside the country have looked to the streets of Cairo with admiration and regret. Who would have thought it would be the Egyptians capable of forcing concessions -- however limited they might be at this stage -- from their authoritarian rulers, not the Green movement?
"For the first time in history, the Iranians are jealous of the Arabs," said a young oppositionist, who was active in the 2009 protests and has become exiled in the West, referring to the centuries-old arrogance the Persians have maintained over the Arabs.
Now, week three into the Egyptian uprising, Iran's de-facto opposition leaders Mehdi Karroubi and Mir Hossein Mousavi have announced plans for rallies in Tehran on Monday -- ostensibly to show support for the Egyptian uprising, but in fact to try to seize upon the rebellious wave sweeping the region.
Their request was already denied on Wednesday, despite a flurry of enthusiasm from the Iranian regime, which is backing the Egyptian uprising and calling it an Islamic revolution inspired by its own in 1979. The applause from Tehran's leaders, particularly Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, has become so overwhelming that even the religious scholars from Al Azhar in Cairo, the world's highest seat of learning for Sunni Muslims, have been forced to denounce Khamenei in order to make clear that the Egyptian revolt is not about establishing a religiously-inspired, Iranian-style theocratic state.
Green movement leaders in Iran, after receiving warnings from the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps and the country's top prosecutor not to rally on Monday, are now trying to expose the regime's hypocrisy: The regime is all in favor of popular uprisings in the Arab world, as long as they never happen again in Tehran.
Not only is the regime unashamed by the apparent double-standard, but Iran's leadership appears to be congratulating itself on crushing the uprising in 2009 by now calling the Green movement "a dead corpse." According to IRGC Commander Hossein Hamedani, chief of the IRGC in Tehran during the crackdowns on protesters, "The seditionists [opposition] are nothing but a dead corpse and we will strongly confront any of their movements."
That is too harsh a description for a civil society movement which has made great strides, despite the crackdown that continues today. Nevertheless, there are many reasons the Iranian regime can be confident that the streets of Tehran will not resemble those of Cairo at this moment. Unfortunately for the Iranian opposition, there are fundamental differences between the two uprisings -- some historic and others related to the formation of the two states - which make another round of protest in Iran highly unlikely for the foreseeable future. The one common factor in both protest movements has been that they are both led by the fearless, non-ideological youth. But in Iran, unlike Egypt, this youth bulge as it is called, has limited resources to confront the security forces, in this case the basij, the Islamic militias, and the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps. Iran's reformist youth also face a generational divide, with older Iranians more inclined to try to reform the state from within rather than oust the regime for another form of governance.
When the 2009 protests erupted in Iran, the only individuals capable of assuming leadership of the Green movement were presidential candidates Mir Hossein Moussavi and Mehdi Karroubi. Both men had already passed the rigorous screening process mandatory for all political candidates designed to ensure their loyalty to the Islamic Revolution, the Supreme Leader, and the government. As a result, neither candidate called for the complete overthrow of the government or the abdication of the Supreme Leader, and some protesters viewed them with distrust due to their ties to the government.
The Egyptian uprising, on the contrary, is drawn in large part from the politically dispossessed segments of the population that share few, if any, ideological affinity with President Hosni Mubarak's regime. The uprising also has as its backbone the Muslim Brotherhood, which is playing an increasingly significant role in negotiations with the Egyptian government. Unlike Iran's nascent opposition, the Muslim Brotherhood has been articulating society's grievances with the state for nearly ninety years.
Absent the kind of institutional presence provided by the Brotherhood, the Iranian opposition is far from united in its goals or methods and unable to form a coherent and unified strategy, purpose and leadership. These divisions are apparent not only among those inside Iran but among Iranian activists who have left the country and are working in the West to try to change the system. Deep conflicts exist over the role of religion in the state, women's rights, the nuclear program and relations with the United States. The disagreements stem also from personality conflicts between the old and younger generations of activists.
Another significant difference -- much to the dismay of the Iranian opposition -- is the reaction from Western governments. Even though the United States today is far more reluctant to push for President Mubarak's ouster immediately, as it demonstrated last week, nevertheless Washington has made it clear that a new Egyptian government should be formed which represents the will of the people. And the first step should be free elections in September.
This is completely different from the response in 2009, when the United States believed it faced several constraints on its actions, including the fear that voicing support for the Green movement, which only for a short time seemed capable of extracting concessions from the state, would alienate a regime poised to acquire a nuclear weapon. Washington and European capitals did not want to end talks with the regime on Iran's nuclear program, which would have clearly been the outcome if an endorsement was made of the Green movement. In addition, the United States worried at the time that any show of support would discredit the opposition in the eyes of the rest of the Iranian population, which holds conflicted, if not hostile, views of the US government.
Another important difference between events in Egypt this year and Iran in 2009 is the role of the military. While Iran, like Egypt, has a conventional military separate from the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, the leadership of the regular military is largely drawn of staunchly loyal IRGC commanders. Thus, while sympathies for the opposition in the rank and file of the regular Iranian military almost certainly exist, loyalists to Khamenei remain in control of these branches and allow no opportunity for dissent.
In Egypt, the military made public statements vowing not to fire on protesters during the unrest, unlike the Interior Ministry and police forces which used violence to attack protesters. Egypt's military has an elevated status, perceived by Egyptians first and foremost as a guardian of Egypt's stability and security rather than as an arm of President Mubarak. Consequently, it is culturally and politically well-situated to act as a mediating influence in the conflict. The Egyptian Army, rather than using violence to quash dissent, has actively ensured the ability of protesters to gather in central locations in Egyptian cities, even safeguarding them from attack until protests intensified on February 2.
By contrast, during the protests in Iran following the disputed 2009 presidential election, protesters enjoyed no neutral third party protection as have protesters in Egypt. On the contrary, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard activated its paramilitary and plainclothes units in numbers never before seen in the Islamic Republic's history. While the protesters in Egypt are attacked by police and Interior Ministry squads, protesters in Iran faced police, paramilitary units, and the brigades of the Revolutionary Guards.
Egypt's military is representative of the population of Egypt itself, and political divisions within the population are reflected within the military -- including support for the Muslim Brotherhood. However, the Revolutionary Guard Corps and constituent security organizations in Iran are certainly not representative of the variety of political sentiments of the population; instead, they are comprised only of Iranians who are ideologically and politically devoted to perpetuating the system of governance established by the Islamic Revolution's founder, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini.
The Islamic Republic's leadership learned valuable lessons from their ascent to power in 1979. The military, both IRGC and regular, as well as every conceivable security and paramilitary force, have multiple redundancies in their composition in the event that any units are overpowered by protesters or succumb to internal divisions. Iran's government, unlike Egypt's, rests upon multiple pillars that together diffuse the pressures upon the establishment and ensure stability even in times of extreme stress.
As the Arab world moves on to a new era, Iranian civil society for awaits its next opportunity. That moment seems possible only if Khamenei dies, or Iran unexpectedly decides to hold free elections in 2013, when President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's term expires.
First published in HuffingtonPost.com
AUTHOR
Geneive Abdo is the director of the Iran program at the National Security Network and The Century Foundation. Shayan Ghajar and Arash Aramesh, research associates for the Iran program, contributed to this article.
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News & Comments
by admin on Sat Feb 12, 2011 09:01 AM PSTYou are welcome to include a link to a news item when you make a COMMENT.
Otherwise please post news items only in the news section.
Thanks
the IR Regime that wanted to
by vildemose on Fri Feb 11, 2011 06:39 PM PSTthe IR Regime that wanted to couch this as an Islamic thing but now is running scared because this is proving to be a popular and a secular movement like the one in Iran back in 2009
We won
by Mola Nasredeen on Fri Feb 11, 2011 06:34 PM PSTWhile some are crying.
Islamists
by Veiled Prophet of Khorasan on Fri Feb 11, 2011 06:18 PM PSTare cowards and terrorists by philosophy. When you worship a highwayman as your prophet and ideal human that is what you get. Islam is an offense to all decency and good in the world.
Thanks COP for sharing your poem.
by Anahid Hojjati on Fri Feb 11, 2011 05:23 PM PSTDear Cost-of-Progress, thanks for sharing your heartfelt poem.
My first poem ever was deleted
by Cost-of-Progress on Fri Feb 11, 2011 04:33 PM PSTspinless dipsitcks like you are the reason why we are where we are today. That was a great poem I composed and you flagged it. I did not keep a copy, damn.....something about you and butt....I recall.
Islaimst are cowards.
____________
IRAN FIRST
____________
Thursday, 10 February
by vildemose on Fri Feb 11, 2011 02:03 PM PST22 BAHMAN PROTEST IN LONDON
Friday 11 February 2011 (22 Bahman 1389 in the Persian calendar) marks the 32nd anniversary of the Islamic Republic of Iran.
Iran Solidarity UK will join other groups outside the Iranian embassy in London to protest against 32 years of tyranny and dictatorship.
We do not recognize the legitimacy of this regime, nor the legitimacy of their embassy in London and their propaganda channel Press TV.
Shut down the embassy!
Shut down Press TV!
Join us on Friday 11 February 2011 at 6 pm outside the Embassy of the Islamic Republic of Iran (16 Princes Gate, Knightsbridge, London SW7 1PT)!
//iransolidarity.blogspot.com/
What does determine how
by Veiled Prophet of Khorasan on Fri Feb 11, 2011 01:33 PM PSTWhat does determine how Khamenie will be treated after abdicating power?
He will not abdicate. He will be dragged out kicking and screaming.
Egyptian: "Iran is
by vildemose on Fri Feb 11, 2011 01:16 PM PSTProtester predicts next revolution will be in Iran
//iranian.com/main/2011/feb/egyptian-iran-next#comment-380046
Fate of Khameni et al
by vildemose on Fri Feb 11, 2011 01:06 PM PSTKhamenie et al must be very nervous. They are next.
Dictatorships sometimes come to an end just as chaotically as they began. Adolf Hitler committed suicide after the Allies beat the German Armed Forces. Fascist Italian dictator Benito Mussolini was shot by Communist partisans. What does determine how Khamenie will be treated after abdicating power?
Mullah-Kosh
by Veiled Prophet of Khorasan on Fri Feb 11, 2011 12:46 PM PSTIt won't be a day of revenge, but reckoning, and we the owners would have earned our way.
I bet it will be a day of revenge and well earned. The Mollahs deserve whatever they get. No punishment; no revenge is enough.
mulla-kosh,
by Mola Nasredeen on Fri Feb 11, 2011 01:08 PM PSTYour name reminds me of
a person who used to go
by the name of 'Shah Kosh'.
Now you've come a long way
you say:
"You and I may not be here on this earth, but the future generation will settle it."
though we are not there yet
that day will come
after the rest of the people
catch up with us
in the Middle East.
I like Molla's motto
by mullah-kosh on Fri Feb 11, 2011 11:46 AM PSTMolla,
Like a shotor that you are, what you say has a ring of truth to it. I accept it. But also accept this fact, no dictatorship that perpetuates violence, and killing can withstand the tides of history. Sooner or later, these folks in Iran have to go.
And the new owners coming to power will have earned their way. On that day, I will remind you of what you and other IR supporters have said. That day will be a day of reckoning (to inform you, reckoning is an accounting term, meaning to clear the balance sheet). It won't be a day of revenge, but reckoning, and we the owners would have earned our way. On that day, be ready to have the balance sheets cleared. You and I may not be here on this earth, but the future generation will settle it. The crime perpetuated today by IR and its supporters will be paid by them, or their children. After all, those who come next have earned their way. Just remember it.
Egypt, good model for overthrowing mullahs in IRAN
by Siavash300 on Fri Feb 11, 2011 11:17 AM PSTDemocracy on it's way throughout Middle East. History is on the side of oppressed people, not on the side of dictators. There are 2 classes of Iranian who support the thugs who are ruling in Iran in these days.
A. Those who are on payroll and receive $$$$$ from stinky mullahs. It doesn't matter what is going on in Iran, they support the system. Their mission is to support criminals as long as they receive money. These are the ones who are selling their brothers and sisters. Shame on them.
B. The 2nd group have lower than average I.Q. This group are in need of education from their fellow country men. All consideration should be given to educate this group.
But why does Mola support those who kill 20,000 Iranians?
by AMIR1973 on Fri Feb 11, 2011 10:55 AM PSTA simple question. Why support those who have killed, raped, and tortured so many Iranian Muslims, Bahais, Jews, Christians, etc? Why support those who execute Iranians every 8 hours? Why?
"Man is a Religious Animal..."
by LoverOfLiberty on Fri Feb 11, 2011 10:52 AM PSTVPK: "That is the part Western Liberals miss. They think Muslims idea of freedom is same as theirs. It is not. Muslims idea of freedom is that of murdering anyone not a Muslim. Just like their "prophet" moe."
"Man is a Religious Animal. He is the only Religious Animal. He is the only animal that has the True Religion--several of them. He is the only animal that loves his neighbor as himself and cuts his throat if his theology isn't straight. He has made a graveyard of the globe in trying his honest best to smooth his brother's path to happiness and heaven...The higher animals have no religion. And we are told that they are going to be left out in the Hereafter. I wonder why? It seems questionable taste."
Mark Twain
walking through
by Mola Nasredeen on Fri Feb 11, 2011 11:01 AM PSTRevolutions
are unlike
walking through a candy store
you don't get to choose
your favorite flavor of the day
you get what you get
from the hands of the new owners
they've earned it
it's beyond one's wishes.
Mola "Jan" this news item for you and your camel, chew on it!
by Mash Ghasem on Fri Feb 11, 2011 10:49 AM PSTعلی خامنه ای که به حمایت از تظاهر کنندگان میدان تحریر ایراد شد، دیروز
پنجشنبه، گروهی از تظاهرکنندگان این میدان خواستار قیام مردم ایران علیه
دیکتاتوری اسلامی شدند. خبرگزاری عربی "محیط" و سایت فلسطینی "قدس" گزارش دادند که تظاهر
کنندگان با انتشار بیانیه ای اعلام کردند: "مصریان سترگ، ای فرزندان تمدن
فرعونی که نور را در گیتی پراکندید، برخی می کوشند انقلاب شما را بربایند.
خامنه ای و نوچه اش نصرالله (رهبر حزب الله لبنان) سر بر آورده اند تا به
انقلاب شما اهانت کنند و با سخن گفتن درباره انقلاب اسلامی قصد دارند بافت
ملت مصر را در هم شکنند و برادران قبطی را از انقلاب جدا نمایند".
بیانیه می افزاید: "ملت بزرگ مصر این هدف های خبیث را، که قصدی جز
گسترش هرج و مرج و تفرقه در مصر ندارد، می شناسد و ملت ما که زیباترین و
شریف ترین انقلاب تاریخ را برپا کرده است به این افراد اجازه نمی دهد تا
انقلاب شان را بربایند. این انقلاب تا هنگام دگرگونی فراگیر دموکراتیک و
دستیابی به کشوری متمدن و مدنی ادامه دارد؛ کشوری همچون همیشه مصر که بر
همه خاورمیانه پرتو می افکند".
بیانیه در ادامه می گوید: "رهبران و هواداران انقلاب سبز در ایران
تصمیم دارند روز دوشنبه همبستگی خود را با مردم مصر نشان دهند، لذا بر
مصریان است که با اختصاص یک روز جهت همبستگی با مردم ایران - که از
دیکتاتوری و ظلم و فساد در رنج اند – پاسخی سپاسگزارانه و زیبا به این
بزرگواران بدهند.
شتر در خواب بیند پنبه دانه
Roozbeh_GilaniFri Feb 11, 2011 10:49 AM PST
حتا اخوان اسلام هم میگن "جمهوریه اسلامی" نمیخوان، به عنوان جواب، جواب که چه عرض کنم، تو دهنی، به هذیانهای اون پیر سگ آدمکش، خامنهای. حالا این طرف اومده جلز و ولز میکنه برای "جمهوریه اسلامی"!!!
An an islamic "government" is what you wish for
by Cost-of-Progress on Fri Feb 11, 2011 10:25 AM PSTeverywhere, don't you mullah?
Just look at your comment from before. You people are salivating at the prospect of yet another nation getting screwed by your beloved cult.
Political Islam is the new plauge...like it or not, and this CAMEL needs to be eliminated........
____________
IRAN FIRST
____________
Egypt Today
by Mola Nasredeen on Fri Feb 11, 2011 11:15 AM PSTis Iran's Yesterday.
Now that Mubarak is gone what would happen?
What's military to do?
people will ask them out too
The Egyptian military is in the same team as Mubarak's.
The real test of the uprising will come now
Filling out the streets and squares were the easy part.
Who is going to be in charge of the military?
Generals or Egyptian people?
Hence there would be a split among the military personnels. The ones who support the people and the ones who will support the generals.
The next Egyptian peoples' government will have Islamic tendencies.
An Islamic government is a camel that will sleep on every Arab's door. For now.
So democracy can be achieved
by vildemose on Fri Feb 11, 2011 09:03 AM PSTNo death to this or death to that. No looting, vandalizing, hanging, no violence. Congratulations!
We should learn from the Egyptians how to be more like them.
IRI IS AGAINST MOVEMENT IN EGYPT
by afshinazad on Fri Feb 11, 2011 08:36 AM PSTWhat you hear from IRI about lecturing people of Egypt is totally misunderstood, Islamic Regime know that by supporting movement in Egypt will Panic American and others about supporting the Egyptian peoples movement and will make them worry about possible another IRI regime in Egypt, because with fall of mobark in Egypt, domino will continue in region and Iran will be the next, I must hand it to these clerics they know how to dance with American.
Khamenie is well aware of danger and he knows that every day his circle is getting smaller and smaller and people in his own circle tearing each other a part to eliminate others to gain the power, today Regime of Iran is very weak and their life line is shortened and that's why we witness massive execution with public knowledge to create the fear among Iranian. If Iranian today raise this regime will fall faster that anyone could imagine, Basigi or the Pasdaran are not quite that strong as everyone think and there is evidence that in ASHOORA day public defeated all those securities and other thugs, but didn’t continue the mission, we have to give more credit to Iranian young people that with bear hand defeated armed security forces and we know that today same young Iranian are more angry than ever and they must bring the labour force in the action because without support of schools and labour nothing can be accomplished.
Who hasn’t heard of
by vildemose on Fri Feb 11, 2011 08:21 AM PSTWho hasn’t heard of ”bread and circuses”?
Robert Fisk, writing of the exit of Hosni Mubarak, says of dictatorial governance:
""For the first essential task of a dictator is to “infantilise” his people, to transform them into political six-year-olds, obedient to a patriarchal headmaster.""
How the armed forces take
by vildemose on Fri Feb 11, 2011 08:04 AM PSTIkhvan from Egypt, issues a public statement: against Islamic
by Mash Ghasem on Fri Feb 11, 2011 01:10 AM PSTgovernment, in response to Khamenie's non-sense, and yet our little Mola here dreams about "Islamic governments." Wake up time!
The pay can't be that good.
Sparrowlake
by Veiled Prophet of Khorasan on Thu Feb 10, 2011 06:47 PM PSTFor Islam freedom means killing all those that are not.
That is the part Western Liberals miss. They think Muslims idea of freedom is same as theirs. It is not. Muslims idea of freedom is that of murdering anyone not a Muslim. Just like their "prophet" moe.
Great live coverage by
by Bavafa on Thu Feb 10, 2011 06:36 PM PSTGreat live coverage by Aljazeera on the Web. I hope and wish for this 'padzahr' anti-venom and disease that has taken over ME to spread every where specially Iran. Lets hope this wave reaches Tehran very soon and the Mullahs go where Mubark is heading.
Mehrdad
Egyptians are jealous of IRI's executions
by AMIR1973 on Thu Feb 10, 2011 06:21 PM PSTThe Islamic Republic has executed 20,000 Iranians since it came to power (a much, much bigger number than the number of Egyptians killed by the lousy Mubarak regime, which will hopefully be replaced by a true Egyptian democracy). It is the leading per capita executioner in the world and has executed over 100 Iranians since December 2010 (one every 8 hours), including some for religious heresy or "pornography". The Islamist regime is the most violent and repressive government in recent Iranian history. And yet, we have folks who live in the free West and come on Iranian.com to express support for the Number One killer, torturer, and rapist of Iranian men, women, and children. Why?
Why Iranians are not jealous of the Egyptian Uprising
by Mola Nasredeen on Thu Feb 10, 2011 06:01 PM PSTIn fact Iranians are very happy because of it.
A few observations:
1. Egypt is having his first revolution while Iranians have been through a few of them already.
2. Iranians have already overthrown their sole dictator 32 years ago, hence they are many years ahead of Egyptians in this regard.
3. Iranians know their only salvation for a more open society is through gradual change from within the system and they have not given up yet.
4. The next Egyptian government if their uprising succeed will have Islamic tendencies and nobody can stop it. Islamic governments are the product of their time.