The rise of Khatami

People were hungry for change and Khatami seemed to have all the appeal to satisfy that hunger


The rise of Khatami
by Midwesty

In the spring of 1996 I was dismissed from college. The impact of the dismissal was so hard on my psyche that I became mentally disarrayed and socially disconnected for a while. The only thing I was seeing was to work hard, make money and flee from the hell hole.

A year later at the end of one of those long and tiring days, one of my close high school friends called and asked if we could meet to see how things going on with us. At the same time I knew that there was every Wednesday night gathering at our old high school math teacher, Mr. N’s house. Bunch of geeky looking and politically active old classmates and college students were meeting there talking about nothing but politics.

My friend and I set the time to meet there. I remember the timing; it was couple of weeks before Iranian presidential election. Nategh Noori’s was the front runner for the conservatives. His chances were high because he was from Khamenei’s close circle carrying the blessing of the Islamic Republic Guard Corps, Iranian intelligent service, conservative businessmen in bazaar, multimillion dollar cartels such as Bonyade Mostazafan, and Bonyade Ponzdahe Khordad, various conservative factions and characters and the list went on.

When I got to my teachers house they were already in the midst of a hot debate. I could barely recognize my friends through the thick cigarette smoke. I lit a cigarette and drifted into the discussion by listening. I don’t remember all the details about that night but I remember one thing. I was hearing over and over a name that was not known to me until then. They were talking about Khatami. The discussion sounded like a joke to me. Khatami had no chances what so ever against Nategh who had all the support form the people who had all the power and money. He could not win even in his wildest dream unless by a revolution. Knowing Iranians, I knew they were tired of revolution. They’ve seen one and pretty much have regretted it.

I was closely watching Khatami’s speeches from that point on. Although at the time it seems to be impossible to shatter the image of Nategh who was claiming to be the new era’s Reza Shah, but I decided to take my chances and as an individual play my last card in order to defeat the conservatives’ cause by at least one vote.

There was one thing in Khatami’s campaign that would make me hopeful. Nobody had ever dared to publicly announce that was going to normalize the relationship with the west. That was his campaign’s main thyme and it was bold, original and controversial.

As a young former student I loved it. So I got together with my friends and tried to make a strategy to mobilize as many people as we could. Oddly enough we didn’t know that the same thing was gong through other’s minds all over the country. It was 15 days left to the election that we started to talk passionately about Khatami in the public and private gatherings, buses, taxis, bakery lines, shopping centers, and coffee shops, with the friend and strangers.

The more we talked the more we were hearing back from others. Public opinion at the beginning was very skeptical about the voting and that was the key factor that conservatives were counting on. They knew that by discouraging public to vote, their candidate would have a greater chance to be elected through their small but dedicated base. Doesn’t it ring a bell, especially to our American friends looking back at the year of 2000?

For example my mom had never voted for anybody in the IRI regime even for the most popular man in Iranian politics, Mr. Banisadr, but my fifteen-day begging campaign and brainwashing finally crushed her will.

The days leading to the election almost every body was talking about a man that nobody had ever noticed him until then. People were hungry for change and Khatami seemed to have all the appeal to satisfy that hunger. Rafsanjani and his supporters also got into the race and stimulated their base to support Khatami. There was a new blood flowing into the nation’s veins. Khatami and Rafsanjani’s campaign was also the first political campaign that hired marketing specialist to steer their limited financial resources more effectively.

On the day of voting, people were lining up at the ballot boxes hours before the opening. There was no way we could definitely tell who they were going to vote for. The next couple of days were crucial. People were nervous and feared that conservative might tamper with the ballots. At the end of day, Rafsanjani with his interior minister appeared on TV at the election command center and required the ministry to be protective of the people’s vote.

Khatami to his friends and enemies disbelief won the election with a land sliding victory. The morning after his victory we heard that it was on the major European papers the headline: revolution, Iranian style, at the ballot boxes >>>PART 2: The fall of Khatami


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Long Live Khatami!

by Mirza Kouchak Khan (not verified) on

Khatami 09 baby!! I love the man. A true Iranian and good leader, dont care if he is a mullah or not. He is worth 100x that khiki Reza Pahlavi and traitor Rajavi.



by Farhad7 (not verified) on




by Sohrab_Ferdows on

I think your comments serve Islamic regime better than anyone else! Please refrain from making unfounded and meaningless claims which is just in direction of censorship. Mr. Javid has shown that he is a true patriotic Iranian by providing and supporting this free forum for you and me to reach our voice to others. Please do not abuse this opportunity by bringing unfounded and irrelevant arguments which are reminder of "daaee jaan napoloen" mentality. I salute Mr. Javid for his hard work and dedication and would like to express my deep appreciation in this regard.



by TRUE IROONI (not verified) on


Putin warns US against attacking Iran (Guardian 16-Oct-2007)







by Sohrab Ferdows (not verified) on

I really did not intend to continue with this discussion but I had to make a couple of comments in response to your questions about how did I reach the conclusion that Iranians are ready for establishing a true democracy. Dear friend, have you read the article under which you are posting your comments? I attest to what has been described in this article as an indication of Iranian people's rediness for creation of their democracy. I was there and I saw it and experienced it first hand. Because of the issues that I had to deal with in those months and days leading to election, I had to travel a lot and spoke to many people in different parts of the country. I was very impressed by the enthusiasm of people even in villages and I know many sceptics decided to vote for the first time in that election but the result of that for the nation was nothing but failure. The most important base for democracy is people and their willingness to "participate" in the affairs of their own country. I saw this with my own eyes but Islamic republic abused this matter by taking that as an approval of their barbaric behavior towards people by expanding the barbaric punishments as a symbol of rule of religious laws.

Iranian people showed their will to give another chance to Islamic rulers in order to deliver what they preached but result was nothing but another failure.

I responded to your questions as I saw it fit. you can disagree with them which is fine but I find it strange to attach the condition of "pre determined" system for removal of current system which is clearly working against the national interest of Iranians. I agree with you that Iranian people have advanced (thank to their own efforts not the system) and it is exactly this advancement which allows us to be very hopeful for better future. Any system for future of Iran should be determined by the nation through a fair and free referendum with participation of international observers. There is no need for a violent revolution to reach this but Iranians definitely need to work harder than now through civil disobedience in order to avoid a catastrophe which is bound to happen if this system remains in power. That's all. Thank you very much for your participation in this discussion and I have to mention this here that having differences in views is for normal societies and normal people and we all should learn to live with it without wanting to kill each other. This is exactly what Islamic republic rulers have never cared for and do not understand after 28 years aside from many other prob lems that they have.



Your logic has flaws

by XerXes (not verified) on

Whether my question is generic or not, you still have not answered (while giving me a generic answer). I don't think that we should sit silently and let the regime live the way it wants, but I tell you one thing for sure that the Iranian population is much more advance in the social and political arena than you might give them credit for. My point again is that any revolution in any developed country has not flourished in less than fifty years (Minimum). The west has gone through hell to reach where they are today; including the two world wars and many dictators. Spain was a dictatorial up to some 70-80 years ago. You can't just change and think that everything is going to be fine, as long as not Mullas. We said before, everything is going to be fine as long as not Shah. What is it that you disagree? That we need to have an idea and direction and a systematically trustworthy individuals who form a group to lead the reform/revolution? Just to jump and get rid is never any solution. You say the Iranians are ready for a democratic system. For one thing how have you reached your conclusion? I say that our culture and religion, which easily 60% follow dearly, is not as different as the current regime in Iran. You may want to just disagree, but Iranians all around the country, not just northern Tehran, are what I have described. Now who and what will foresee the future election and how would you guarantee that they won't form a dictatorial regime. Not to mention the first killings of Mullas and "enemies" of the new "Put in place" government. I am not being negative, but to realistically reach a developed and democratic regime, these little simple issues must be resolved. I don't see what I am saying that is so hard to digest!? We can't first change it then think about it. Like the joke:
All the animals were running in the jungle and passing the lion. The lion asked one why all are running in a hurry. An animal answered: because there is bear that kills whoever has three balls. The lion said relaxed: why worry, no one has three balls. The animal answered with hurry: well, he first cuts them then counts them...


I have no education

by Einollah (not verified) on

Just an "offered" PhD, so take my words for what they are worth to you. The biggest problem with Mullahs is when they asked the population to produce more "Islamic" babies, thinking the new generation born under the IRI will be their strongest supporter. Now the same generation is thirsty for their blood and does the opposite of what they want. They are much more "westernized" than the young generation during the Shah. This population growth has also exasperated Iranian economy and other social issues because the Govt can't keep up with creating new jobs or getting control of the inflation. There is so much bad that I don't want to spend time explaining the obvious. Do you think it's hard to critize IRI? Here in US with all the anti-Iran media? People in Iran critize IRI at every breath. Sit in a Taxi in Tehran and you get an earful. The point is, Khatami was better. Khatami did something. Ahamdinejad and his cronies, or vice versa, Iranian cronies and their "butler" (seraydar) Ahmadinejad, turned the clock back. They didn't even need Israel or USA. All they had to do was discourage people to vote and mess with the election some how, again copying American politics (2000 elections). The progress in Iran is real but it is slow. Iran is STILL a 3rd world country. Do you judge progress as how westernized a country gets, like tall buildings in Dubai? If you can't see the progress, then you don't see it, nothing I say is going to change your outlook. I remember when I went from my village to the "city" I saw progress, they even insisted I take their PhDs, but I didn't. Perhaps I should have and it would have made a difference.


XerXes, I will have to speak

by Sohrab_Ferdows on


I will have to speak frankly to you my friend! your questions are very generic and do not hold any real argument. this is what you asked:

1-How do you want them (The IRI) out?
2-What would you replace them with?
3-How would you guarantee success?

1- Iranian people made a very huge historical mistake to give up a reformable non-ideological system before 1979 and get Islamic republic instead. whether we like it or not, this system has been a menace not only to Iranians but also to others. It is responsibility of every Iranian to work in direction of removal of this system which, based on its constitution, is just a circle of doom! You can not destroy something and then say I am tired now let's stick with what we have! If you don't want war then you are responsible to work for removal of this regime in any way possible. I voted for Khatami once (the first time) because I thought he was genuine and sincere but I was wrong. A mullah can never be sincere and Islamic republic can never be reformed! Just look at the Myanmar and you know what you need to do with a system which is not reformable and does not respect its people and their rights!

This is not a world like 1000 years ago or even 100 years ago that event in one part of the world does not affect others. This world is closely interrelated and people in other countries can not stay indifference towards the problems in Iran, China, Myanmar, Afghanistan, Iraq, Yugoslavia..etc.. etc..
Today, Islamic republic is not problem of Iranian people alone. it is a menace which threatens the peace and stability through out the world. just today Khamenei called for boycott of middle east peace process! this is how they like peace! You can not expect the world to remain indifference to these rhetorical messages and speeches for ever. sooner or later something bad will happen to our nation just because they do not stand up against the irresponsible system which has taken advantage of their religious belief to impose its inhumane rule on them.

2- What is it that you think you have now that you can not replace it? this is a mafia system and keeping silent agains them because you think you don't have alternative is wrong. The alternative is a true democracy which respects human right and abides by the laws which will be puts in place by people. This negative mentality is mother of all problems. Iranians today have a lot better chance to establish their true democracy than 28 years ago.

3-What guarantee are you looking for? I can give you one guaratee for sure and that is: if Islamic republic stays in power then we will witness complete demise of a nation which once stood as a pillar of civilization!

Dear friend,

Work for peace, work for human rights, work for real progress in Iran and do not try to justify the situation based on your own position in society! your comments about economy and progress do not make any sense under current system in Iran. economy going up and down in a normal society does not have anything to do with situation in Iran. in Iran economy has only one way to go for mullahs which UP (thanks to huge national resources) and only one way for majority of people which DOWN. A big portion of Iranian people live bellow poverty even based on standards of Islamic regime itself. Iran's economy has been trailing all the nations in the region except Syria and Palestine for years now. what would you guarantee under this condition? please do not answer. Thank you.


Einollah you are too idealistic and you are wrong about the prog

by The Fair Judge (not verified) on

Einollah you are too idealistic and you are wrong about the progresses made in Iran. You mention progress in:
-Auto industry.
This one is a joke. What progress?? Making rehashed 1981 Mazda 121, which was sold to pride after it stopped production, and then sold to Iran?? Or Paykan, Peugeot406 and 206, or what?? Maybe you mean Samand?? The redesigned Peugeot 406 which has airbag as an option.
The cars made in Iran are very low quality and everybody knows that when you buy one, you have to start sorting out its problems.
And for your information Iran was exporting cars in the 70s. Pakistan alone was a big buyer of Peykan. This was a good start and we should have built on it. We haven't gone very far in 30 years.
-Military industry.
The base for this was made by the Shah. Iranian assembled Helicopters of Shah's time are still the main backbone of Iran's Helicopter fleet.
Iran was going to assemble the 300 F16 that it ordered to replace the aging F5. This was to give Iran experience to start its own industries. Of course we all know that those 300 F16s are now serving the Israeli airforce.
The missiles that everyone is so awestruck by are rehashed Korean ones.
-Mining. Well Iran cannot even develop its own oilfields without help from foriegn oil companies and this is one field that it should excell in. Enough said.
-Nuclear. Everyone knows that it is actually Shah's project and they took 30 years to develop it. Very efficient !!!!
-Construction. This is probably the biggest joke of them all. And it is my line of work coincidentally.
I have been to Iran recently and I was amazed at the low quality of their consrtuction and the materials used. They actually make properties to last for 30 or 35 years only!!! Can you believe that?? I can write a book about how everything is done wrong when it comes to Construction in Iran. Not to mention the town planning!!! Shah Abbas's buildings have lasted more than 300 year and if these guys look after them, they will last for another 1000 years. What these guys make lasts for one generation, if they are lucky.
-Health care. For a nation of 70m, Iran has a very low rate of research coming out of its institutions including healthcare. When they become "Motekhasses", all they think about is making money. It has made some headways but nothing to justify 30 years of effort. Just go to a hospital (like I did to visit an ill reltive) and you will see what I mean.
The medicine that they produce (and they are all foreign developed) are of extremely lot quality. What you should have mentioned about their achievement and you didn't, is actually the development of "Daneshgah Azad". This you can argue has been good.
However you miss the point that a country the size of Iran, with its potential and resources should have improved far more than this. And I have not even mentioned the problems the IRI has created like massive corruption at every level, drug abuse, insecurity, poverty, hunger, human rights violations of all types, culture of lying by Iranians, prostitution, backward looking regulations, mistreatment of ethnic minorities, censorship, no freedom of criticism and speech, no accountability, unfair judicial system, you want me to carry on???
You don't just judge them well because they are Iranians and you like them. Judge them on their actions relative to their potential, and they fail miserably.
If you agree with the Mullahs and try to justify their actions, or you actually try not to highlight their mistreatment of Iranians and their abuse of power, then you are unknowingly betraying Iran and the Iranians because they deserve better than this and they need all the help they can get from other Iranians.


Sohrab's answer

by XerXes (not verified) on

First of all economy will go up and down in every country but the social progress will remain either steady or go up (Unless you are like Egypt or Turkey, or old Iran that whatever was gained can easily go since there is no cultural history to back them up. Also they are not earned by the people rather is given, or forced upon them.)
Again my question is, you all might have the problem, but based on the questions raised in my last comment, what do you suggest? Realistically and logically.


Considering the wealth

by Sohrab_Ferdows on

Considering the wealth which has been generated of exporting raw materials like oil and natural gas that hav been mostly looted by mullahs and their associates, no progress has been made under mullahs with public funding. The revenue from crude oil alone has been well above $600 billions from which about $150 billions have been earned just in the last three years. comparing this with pre-1979 era which Iran had no foreign debt and about $30 billions of hard currency saving after achieving establishement and expansion of industrial units in multiple fields while the revenue from oil had not exceeded $160 billions since the time of D'Arcy till 1979.

forget about foriegn debt and rest of other stuff which puts Iran's economy even behind countries like Turkey, Egypt and Jordan. what progress?


Midwesty هر چقدر

Democracy (not verified)

Midwesty هر چقدر بیشتر مقاله های شما رو میخونم بیشتر متوحه میشم که توسط آخوندیسم ها Braiwash شدی.


Who esle would you like to rule Iran?

by XerXes (not verified) on

To me this is simple. If you like Saltanat talab, Fadaayee (If they are still around), Mojahedin than you are in the absolute minute minority in and out of Iran. So I ask those who want "Mullas" to leave Iran to tell think (Because just getting rid of something without a plan is as bad or much worse, not including the price that needs to be paid)about these questions:
1-How do you want them (The IRI) out?
2-What would you replace them with?
3-How would you guarantee success?
1-if you answered Revolution then you are dreaming. If you answered an attack by any foreign force then you are a kha'en. Also realize that "democracy" that anyone claims CAN'T come from a military or force origins. That's just pure and simple. The slow process to stand against the regime is not really too successful either and regime has become comfortable knowing that!
2-If you say Mosadegh "style" government, or "Democratic", you must be more clear. Because there are many power hungry Iranian and "opposition" that is just waiting to hostage Iran for their pockets. TO accomplish a democratic system, you need a democratic culture that comes with education and time, with trial and error of people with their own destiny (What's happening in Iran currently)
3-You can't guarantee success unless the movement is from the people and one could only trust a nation that has experience in running their own country with their existing culture and religion. Again time will bring about the answer. Iran is a vibrant social and political arena. Some groups who live outside can not prescribe a quick relief medication to solve the Iranian puzzle. We as Iranians must first realize all the reality that we need to dealt with if the regime is gone, and honestly answering the questions above will get you started. I hate the fact that the hatred of some is so grand that they are willing to allow a foreign nation to "BOMB" Iran so they can "get rid" of the current regime. And you want me to believe that once the regime is gone based on your bombing ideas, then there would be Democracy and freedom "For all" in Iran?
We must be patient and work with the goods that we have, use them rather than lose them, so we can fix what's broken. If we did that with Shah, we would be so much better today, right? So why not learn from our mistake and don't let it be repeated.


it takes time, bacheha..

by yadeoonroozha (not verified) on

Wow, this conversation is still going.. It was interesting to read the dialogue between Darius and Einollah. Just a note to progressive and everyone else on the blame everything on the mullah-tip, get over it. I mean, we all know this. We as in people who live in Iran. and we are fighting everyday- those of us who can. Reform takes TIME. I have been living in Iran for More than 2 yrs, 10 years, all my life actually, and there has been progress. If you have not been to Iran since before the revolution and your hometown is a shahrestan, well you probably won't even recognize it. Every other day Tehran is expanding. and expanding. If you lived here 15yrs ago and remember every product or material you wanted for your house was expensive kharegy, well come to iran and go to the market now, everything is Made-In-IRAN and the material is good. Anyway, Einollah does a good job describing below what kind of "progress" I am talking about..


he looks like nice man but he

by hajiagha on


I had photo with him in Gola agha cartoons magazine in 1992 where I working as cartoonist. he looks to me more educated as others Mullahs, but he also close to ayatollahs seyed Ali Khamenei they are good friend....only rafsanjani here is alone and he don't have good relationship with others Mullahs ( others tiff mullahs )why? I don't know ?may because rafsanjani is not more tiff as others mullahs and he like to bring modernism in Iran he looks like westrn man... Khatami need to be more independent and need to be more brave in his job. we need to some one to talk and ened this Mullahs mafia in Iran , anti Mullahs mafia




.من حانباز حنگ و برادر شهید هستم


Examples of progress in Iran

by Einollah (not verified) on

Here are some examples of progress, they are more than "just one". Of course they are not the best built like in other Industrial countries, but good enough for Iran, for now and for you anyway.

- auto industry, exporting to other countries
- military industry, exporting and selling
- mining industry
- nuclear energy
- construction industry
- health care
- just go to Iran and you'll see the rest

The point is, denying progress because it was made during IRI is just fooling ourselves. Iran is not the hot bed of everything good. There is plenty wrong and plenty of abuses. We know all of that. But what about things that we are going to keep when we have a better Government? are we going to throw them out and start "fresh"?! I think most people are just "embarrassed" to claim the good things. They just want to say screw the Mullahs and get it over with.


Israeli attack

by Einollah (not verified) on

If Israel is going to use forward bases in Iraq, then why wouldn't US do it themselves? Like the Persian Gulf war I, there wasn't anything Israeli could add that US wasn't doing itself. What's another sortie or 2 when US was flying thousands a day? And if you're thinking US will let Israel use Iraq as a forward base, think again. How long do you think that "secret" is going to last? What do you think the political repercussion of Israel using Iraq as a Base would be in the Middle East or other parts of the world? Not good, is it? So if Israel is going to do it, it has to do it itself. They will get one chance. Just once, take your pick. What target do you want to hit? The strategy about bombing air defenses and gaining "air supremacy" is not something Israel is going to do. US yes, but not Israel. As soon as Israel attacks, Iran is going to send missles her way and as I said after that it's anyone's guess. Of course if Iran gets too cocky, Israel may resort to a nuclear attack and they are crazy enough to do it too. So in the end, Israel gets one chance and one target, and they can't do it like they did in Iraq and Syria. US can defeat Iran militarily, but will get bogged down like Iraq. US has bases all around Iran, except Russia. So they are in a position to do it, but probably don't have the desire or the confidence after Iraq.

Darius Kadivar

I'll give my Vote to Kiosk and Elvis

by Darius Kadivar on


The Mullahs are fundamentally the wrong people to be reformers.

by The Fair Judge (not verified) on

The Mullahs are fundamentally the wrong people to be reformers and democrats. Their basic beliefs in Islam prohibit that. They are not true lovers of Iran or Iranians and they have shown that many times over.
As Jamshid put it, Mossadegh, Bakhtiar and even the Shah were true patriots in their own times but these mullas are not. The Arabic culture and fundamentals are much more important to them and they whole heartedly support the Arab invasion of old Persia.
Those who still believe in mullahs should examine their own values and should start using their own brains and minds rather than follow blindly the words of those from "Hozeh Elmieh".


Re: Amazing....

by jamshid on

It is so amazing to see how the mullahs are playing almost all of you, almost toying with you.


Khatami and his likes are just a "ghaa ghaa lili", or a carot stick, for the uncareful progressive forces inside or outside of Iran. Every once in a while someone like him will show up as a "soopaap" to lessen the pressure on the government and to buy them more time. And you all fall for it?


These are not reforms. Look at how much back we have gone in 10 years. There are more executions, more arrests, more torture, more insecurity, more moral decay, more economical dead ends, more poor, more decay, more gap betweeen the rich and the poor, the list goes on.


Of course, there is always the "ghaa ghaa lili", the carrots. The mullahs had laid waste the entire Iranian industries, oh but they have made "saeghe" fighter jets (carrot), they "montage" more cars than our neighbors (carrot), we are becoming more and more self sufficient (another carrot) by becoming poorer and poorer of course. I bet you there will be a day we'll be totally self-sufficent in the transportation dept by having all Iranians use mules for going to places.


They are raping Iran and you fall for the Khatami character and even waste your time talking about him as an "option?"


And now the war is looming. So here is another opportunity for IRI to silence every oppostion by labeling it as anti-Iranian. First it was the Iraq war and now another one, this time with the US. I bet you in case of a limited war, the IRI will be able to buy another 20 years of time.


Unfortunately, we have fallen so low that an imbecile low-life like khatami becomes our "hope". We have hit the bottom of the barrel. Think people! Think! There was a time our hope was with someone with the stature of Mosadegh for crying out loud. Could you even begin to compare Mosadegh to this garbage khatami? Or the Shah, or Bakhtiar? We are suffering from "ghahtie rejaal", we are so hopless and desparate that we look among our own enemies to find our "hope".


And don't tell me there is no other way. There just got to be a better "hope" than another akhoond.


Reformist, conservative, they are all same trash

by Iranian Kurd (not verified) on

I can't believe how some people are stupid enough to think that any reform will come throughout this regime...A mullah is a mullah. It violates human rights, kill minors, stone women and repress it's minority rights. Reformist is another propaganda to keep this dying regime up on its feet..Give me a break...


Fuck Khatami and every other kos kesh Akhoond

by Sasan (not verified) on



with so many idiots calling

by ashrafe makhlooghat (not verified) on

with so many idiots calling themselves iranian i say khatmai will win again.


To Einollah......regarding Israeli attack

by progressive (not verified) on

I sincerely hope that Iran will not be attacked by anyone as it will have disastrous consequences all around. But you are wrong about how Israel might attack Iran if it chose to.
I had the pleasure and honour of serving in the old airforce in Iran for a short time and I can tell you that all your talk about how Israel might attack Iran is way off the mark.
The Isrealis will not attack Natanz and Bushehr all the way from the Mediterranean and refuel on the way. They will use forward US airbases in Iraq with only a handful of aircraft flying from mainland Israel. And first they will not attack Natanz and Bushehr nuclear facilities. They will attack the air defence systems, radar stations, missile launcher sites and airbases in Iran. This they will do with maximum number of aircraft and force to achieve their objective in the shortest period of time. Once they have relative freedom of skies, then they can start bombing and destroying the suspected sites.
And the Iranian military and airforce know this full well and I bet you anything that their strategists work on it daily. This is standard practice.
Israel may not be able to destroy all the sites but it can do an awful lot of damage to Iran with relatively low casualty rates in the air compared to the Iranian airforce. Unfortunately with all our brave and excellent pilots, in head to head fighting we are years behind technologically and our best aircraft are 30 years old. And don't Saegheh fool you. It is a rehashed version of F5 which itself was developed in the 1950s in the US. Saegheh is no match for top of the range US made fighters of Israel and in any case there are not many of them around. So our losses will be higher and as the Iranian airforce knows this, they will only put up token aircraft to fight and will instead concentrate on ground to air defences and retaliation in other forms.
But what happens afterwards will depend on the reactions of Iran, the US, the accuracy and success of the Israelis, collateral damage and public opinion in the west, etc.
And quite honestly it will be a bad situation for everyone.
Besides, Iran's military cannot destory Israel which has 200 nuclear warheads. What do you think Israel would do if it thought it was being wiped off the map??? It would be suicide for Iran to try and wipe out a nuclear power.
The solution to the present crisis in Iran is not military. It is political.


IRI Is A Negative Force For Progress in Iran

by progressive (not verified) on

I see the points that DK and Einollah make but whatever progress that Iran may have had (and lets be honest, there aren't many) were in fact achieved despite the IRI, not because of it. IRI is a negative force when it comes to progression in Iran. You pick a good point when you mention the cinema in Iran. These people have done great work despite all the censorship, restrictions and interference by the IRI.
Can you guys tell me of a single example of progress that we have had in Iran that we otherwise would not have had, had the revolution not happened?????
I doubt it. Even this nuclear project was started in the 1960s.
Compare the advances made in Iran from 1329 to 1357 with those made from 1357 to 1385 (28 years before the revolution and 28 years after the revolution).
I am certainly not a monarchist but with all its faults, at least the Pahlavi regime was dynamic. It was changing all the time and in any case the Shah would have been dead within a year because of his cancer and things would have moved on. With the Mullahs we are stuck. One can argue that in fact most of the time we are going backwards.
We need true democratic changes in Iran but please this time make it bloodless. We have seen far too much Iranian bloodshed and Iranians should learn from it so that it won't be repeated.
However this is idealistic and at this rate Iran will probably implode and I think it will be mainly to do with their social and economic problems. And when it happens, the chances are that it won't be bloodless.
Going back to the Khatami arguement, I can see why some Iranians fell for him and as they wanted change, any hopeful signs for change would have been easily believed. But he is one of the Mullahs. He was a Cabinet minister fo many years and he is also related to quite a few of the big name Ayatollahs. So he would never be the one to bring about effective changes to this system. He is too much part of it himself.
And to Foad.........I don't know DK but I have read some of his writings and he makes sense. You however, don't.
I have seen a few comments from you and in every single one of them you resort to personal attacks and you don't offer any arguements. By doing this you lose your credibilty.
I also suggest that tomorrow you go and live and work in Iran as an adult for 2 years and so long as you are not a member of the Bazaris or connected to the Mullahs, then come back and write your comments.
I bet your comments will be somewhat different then!!!


can't believe

by MRX (not verified) on

Can't believe people are talking about this guy. As if once was not enough! This guy saved sewer republic from collaps by fooling massess with big words like dialogue of civilization and crap like that. Is it possible that you folks will fall for him again? I say chances are good!



by Einollah (not verified) on

There are plenty of good people with good vision. Take some of the famous Iranians we know. How about Simin Ebadi? How about Ganji when he was going through hunger strikes? How about the recent Iranian Americans who were held in Evin? How about student movements stating "why just Columbia"? These are just some examples to show that good Leaders exist and are struggling for a better life every day. There will be a "perfect" political storm where it will lead to some changes and as far as I'm concerned, as long as it does not involve detroying Iran as we know it today, it'll be fine. Of course there are people who rather see millions die in Iran and "democracy" rise on the ashes of IRI's destruction. That's no democracy, who wants to live on smoking ashes and who is going to accept the guilt of killing so many? As far as Israeli attack on Syria and thinking they'll do the same on Iran, I believe that is a myth. First of all, what's so special about 2 Israeli jets striking 2 old mud factories? Imagine this, 2 jets get airborne, then get refueled over the sea by air force tankers, then go supersonic right at Syrian border, cross into Syria and drop bombs just as they are making U-turn back into the sea. How long do you think that took? 5 minutes, in and out of Syria? Now how long do you think it is going to take Israeli jets to cross Jordanian, Iraqi and then Iranian border (all on dry land) into Natanz or Bushehr deep into Iranian territory? Not 5 minutes. If you read the military articles about Israeli attacks on Iran, you'll read that refueling alone is a huge challenge. So the only option for Israeli to attack is a missle attack. Do you think Iran is going to sit still like Syria or Iraq did 20 years ago? Iran sells military gear to Syria and Lebanon. Israel abandoned it's own military campaign on it's own borders. Didn't you read Seymour Hersch's article? USAF and Israeli AF agreed that when the next Hezbollah mischief happens, they'll turn it into a bunker buster bombing campaign as a test bed for Iran. What happened there? Pentagon is complaining about "sophisticated" Iranian equipment in Iraq. Iran boasts about it's Shahab missles. It is 100% ceratainty that Iran would send missles towards Israel in retaliation. Iranian people would demand it. Just like the Pakistan nuclear test after India. What happpens next is anyone's guess. So Israel attack on Iran is just a myth. They didn't even attack Iraq during Persian Gulf I. So it's up to US, Bush and Fox News (you know what I mean). I just hope Bush doesn't listen to Cheney and neocons again. I just hope.

Darius Kadivar


by Darius Kadivar on

I think reformists need to be more transparent. Everyone speaks about reform and change but we do not see their exact definition.
Also I do not see anyone today with a VISION. People want Hope and someone who can make them feel confident about the future. The drums of War are scary but I do not think that will be an option that Americans will accept after the mess in Iraq. I cannot guarantee that Israel won't attack as they have recently in Syria but it was done without any anouncement. That can happen and no one not even the Americans can oppose that given Israel's unique alliance with the US that forbids any US administration to critisize Israel be it Republican or Democrat. That is why Ahmadinejad and the current theocracy is playing with Fire. A strike can very well take place on nuclear facilities and with the main consenquence which is that it will reinforce the regime inside Iran for a few more years. If the nuclear policy of Iran does not change the situation will reach a no turning point even if no attack takes place.

So Reform needs to be unambiguous. The question to ask is Do you want a Secular Democracy or State or do you want to continue on the same path ?

If Reforme means Secular Democracy, then who can say no to them ? But is that enough to be in civilian clothes like Ahmadinejad and speak the same absurd rhetoric. As for Rafsanjani he owns half the countries economy. He is the center of the current regime's corruption on all levels. He has a questionable past for having plotted assassinations in Argentina and is involved in an international scandal related to TOTAL financial operations with IRan.

Dunno, I simply think the ball is in the camp of Iranians themselves. I think they should not give in to sirens of reform so easily without having a proper and trasparent feedback from the candidates.



He is a great hope

by Alborzi (not verified) on

Its easy to stereo type people, one of the brightest people
who taught at Alborz was our history (tarikh) teacher. Alborz was very much into all kinds of math, biology, Chemistry and Physics but our history teacher was the brightest teacher. Its rather interesting, these guys normally do not like confronting their enemies, they figure intelligence will win out. I think Khatami was brilliant and under his administration freedom flourished. He was flexible enough to help US after 9/11, I think he is a fine man.


Implosion or reform

by Einollah (not verified) on

I consider implosion and reform almost the same thing as far as Iran is concerened. I don't think Khatami is coming back, or at least anytime soon. If the political atmosphere gets better, we should have better candidates. It's time for new candicates not old ones, like W, Hillary, Rafsanjani or even Gore for that matter. I believe we should be sensitive to nuances of Iranian politics and see the differences that exist and leads to political struggle and ultimately change. Khamenei is going to die soon and Rafsanjani as head of Guardian Council which elects and approves the Supreme leader, has at least stated that he prefers a council rather than one single leader. These contradictions should be exploited and eventually, hopefully the good prevails over evil. Or at least worse will prevail over worser. I believe that is positive for us. Every year in the land of democracy we choose between the "lesser of 2 evils". In many cases Iranians try to copy American political culture, just like everything else. Iran is a "Jerry rigged" democracy and compared to other nations in the middle east, it is a step forward. I believe it is possible to select a better leader and a better life as the Khatami experienced showed. Iran wasn't the subject of all discussions leading to war and now it is. It will be very difficult to get out of this cycle with Ahmadinejad in power. The best we can hope for is to get out of Bush and Ahmadinjead's administrations without a war.