Curious Joe

Thank you for your participation in this cyberspace

In answer to Tavana, there can only be a "devil" as long as there is a concept called "God/Allah" -- purely a human imagination/illusion/delusion.

I assure you, the chimpanzees do not believe in God/Allah/Buddha, but then again, you do not believe in evolution.

So let's have some porno fun, staring at Adam and Eve with their apples and grape wines.  And let the planet earth and the universe be only 6,000 years old   After all, according to the latest Indian industrialist -- the earth is flat !!

Anyway, knowing that "hope" is not a strategy, I wish the young Iranians of 2020 will have a better aspiration  than merely wanting to go to Mecca to become a Haaji, or go to Karbala to become a Seyed. 

Would Khamenei assassinate Mahmoud?

We know Khamenei hasn't a moral bone in his body.  He'll add up the pluses and minuses and decide. The catch is that he's done a lousy job of it lately.

Some analysts describe Khamenei as a "cautious and clever," a master manipulator. Maybe so when the atmosphere was more conducive.  Lately the Big Turban resembles a gambling addict who tries to recover losses by tripling his bets.  All gamblers win sometimes  but those who don't know when to quit must lose everything in the end.

Below is my take on "The Five Worst Decisions" made recently by the Supreme Gambler.  In each case I get the impression Khamenei greatly underestimated the potential minuses if a given decision went awry.

Khamenei has assasinated perceived enemies before so why not now? When he can't think of any other way out of a jam, the Holy One tends to turn to whatever worked in days past.  He too easily dismisses changed attitudes and atmospheres before moving his pawns.

Is Ahmadinejad too prominent to assassinate?  One alleged victim of the Supreme Leader's death squads was light years more charismatic, popular and attractive that either Ahmadinejad or Khamenei.  This was someone Khamenei could hardly throw into Evin or place under house arrest without creationg a scandal--Khoumeini's own son whose non-stop criticism of Khamenei's totalitarian tendencies look so prescient now.

Khamenei, totally uncharismatic and religiously unqualified for his post, had yet to consolidate power. He still lived in the shadow of The Founder.  The death squad official believed to have carried it out the assassination suffered a convenient "heart attack" afterward just like Khoumeini's son or a certain prison doctor more recently.

In retrospect Khamenei always was a gambler.  What's changed are the odds.  Gambling was easy when most Iranians saw the mullahs as Good Guys, incapable of horrific behavior.  From the begining of clerical rule abundant evidence to the contrary was available (the Abadan fire and the acid attacks on women) but people didn't want to believe.  Now they do.

THE NOT-SO-CLEVER LEADER: GAMBLES THAT BACKFIRE

1. CHOOSING A USEFUL ALLY: The decision, prior to the 2009 election, to ally himself with a similarly ambitious and unscrupulous figure (Mahmoud) to suppress widespead demands for reforms, human rights and more democrach.

2. RIGGING THE ELECTION:  Khamenei thought no one would notice, that regime denials would be widely accepted and that any public reaction would be minimal

3. THE DECISION TO CRACK DOWN BRUTALLY: It totally destroyed, beyond repair, any political legitimacy Khamenei onec had.

4. THE WASHINGTON, D.C PLOT--Some observers suggested the regime would never make such a boneheaded, risky move.  Do you still think so after what we saw in the past week.   (The same goes for the assasination of Khoumeini's son.   Is it still unlikely?   Would you believe now what people the claim that people were able to accept then based on Khamenei's word: that this healthy young man have a heart attack in his prime?)

5. THE BRITISH EMBASSY TAKEOVER

ASSASSINATE MAHMOUD: A GAMBLE WORTH TAKING?

In one stroke it would eliminate a major threat and leave the faction in disarray. The regime's subsequate propanda is so predictable, so I see no need to examine it here.  Ditto, for the untimely death of any assassin.

On the other hand, the assassination would certainly alienate Mahmoud's followers who won't swallow the regime's claims.  If a they erupt immediately, who else will join in?  If not, the mullahs domestic base is smaller than ever.  The opposition's numbers increase substantial and include people with security force contacts, useful skills in mischief making and less likely to put up with beatings without responding in kind.

The Devil's Delusion!

                          'even the deial of GOD

                             comes from GOD

                           but no one knows that

            "is there sugar on your ruby red lips?" I asked

                                 he said "no"

                                but this denial

                           is also a kind of sugar!!' Rumi

P.S. While reading 'Duck-in's Delusions' you might also want to read 'The Devil's Delusion' by David Berlinski for its rebuttal !!

I hope this is a joke. Iran

I hope this is a joke. Iran is not going to launch a nuke at Israel. Islamic republic or not.