“There was never a good war or a bad peace."

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“There was never a good war or a bad peace."
by oktaby
29-Jun-2010
 

With all the talk of war and familiar media drum beat from all sides, we need to understand our own position detached from the emotional aspect of our collective feeling about an anomaly called IRR that rules Iran. A new war on Iran started in 79 but is moving to a new stage.

A survey of who benefits, who loses and who wants/can change the dynamics may help clarify why Iranian, American or Iranian American, the most patriotic thing you can do for your country is oppose this war.

Who benefits:

* IRR, Zionism, Neocons, Russia, China, Iraq, U.S., Turkey, SA, Pakistan for/to different reasons and extents
* All extreme agenda domestic & foreign

Who loses:

* The worst thing that can possibly happen to Iran for political, economic, freedom & sanity reasons. Bad for Peoples of all the world as a whole
* All options that are actually practical, middle of the road and wise

War is good for

* Global power structure AKA imperialism, AKA another new world order, AKA same crap that has been going on at conveyor belt speed for about 200 years

* IRR: gets a big us against the world excuse, yet again. At a point when it is weakest and falling apart gradually under its own weight and utter incompetence in managing the general affairs of the country even in terms that would be good for an 'islamic regime' or even a 'semi-normal dictatorship' to the extent that such animal exists. A war will fully unleash the fascist state and untold mayhem.
* Israel/Zionism: for the same reasons as always and given extensive mutual interests with IRR
* Neocons: to finish getting their 'peace dividend' that was not completed post soviet, and before China takes over. And because Neocons are as sick and twisted as IRR
* Russia: As long as it is promised that the revenue lost from IRR, is replaced by arms sales, various aid from U.S. and others; and it gets more impunity in central asia. That coincides with American interests...Later.
* China: As long as lost oil/exports are replaced and the Central Asian scenario does not come at the expense of China.
* Iraq: potentially remains free from Iranian influence and builds while Iran is deconstructed. Similar dynamics as Turkey and Syria & Felestin & Israel. It also allows the Sunni to regain some strength.
* U.S.: because war is good for American corporate economy and given current economic cluster. Close to full control of Persian Gulf & Central Asian Oil and Gas wealth which is the lion portion of world energy for foreseeable future.
* Turkey: It benefits immensely from a financial perspective as it has since 1979 and Iran-Iraq war. It weakens or kills its greater central Asian Turko-islamic union/dominance ambitions. It will strengthen islamist in Turkey and may push it closer to dictatorship. Kurdistan is wild card for Iran, Iraq & Turkey.
* SA: Anything bad for Iran is good for SA. They have always been bastards. It will also ensure the %15 Shi't population don't get any ideas in foreseeable future
* Pakistan: similar reasons as SA. It will also allow for greater control of Afghanistan

War is bad for:

* all the same people that have always been fucked. AKA majority of the people of the region and the world but this time former safe haven populations will be expanded into. AKA NA, parts of Europe, Central Asia
* Territory and people of Iran. There is distinct interest to divi up Iran in one of several formations. It may also be part of the lure of bringing hesitant participants to this war. People of Iran can kiss Iran as we know it goodbye. This war will make Vietnam & both Iraq wars combined look like a cake walk.
* Global sanity and World stability; as though there is much left. There will be peoples radicalized and as many factions as there are teams in the world cup. You would need to go to airport 3 days before flight, and scanning starts at your home. Your civil liberties will be abbreviated to civil if you are lucky.
* Environment. I don't think I need to explain this one. Suffice to say the Mother Earth will start becoming old bitch earth. It will take a while but there are enough idiots who think this would be just another war.
* Liberal democracy & democracy. One could argue the liberal version died with Thatcher/Reagan/79 devolution trio (Thatcher actually said as much). The non-liberal version is already half out the window.

It is easy to understand that out of our own historic frustration and immense sense of injustice wrought on a large portion of Iranian population by IRR & masters, that a war could hardly seem worse than these scumbags terrorizing Iran; or kill more people or create more calamity. But a war will deliver all that and then some.

The new 'new world order' is busy trying to define what may be next for Iran and the region. The IRAN WAR, however, may end up defining the 'new' new world order because no one can guarantee the outcome; possibly 3-5 new countries/alliances in various formations and end of Iran as we know it.

There is no such animal as liberation by tanks and guns. We already have islamic utopia with tanks, guns and chaghoo kesh, now further equipped with Nokia, Siemens & Chinese armored vehicles.

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more from oktaby
 
oktaby

They complete each other

by oktaby on

as in Yin & Yang. That is menage et trois of IRR & its top 2 'enemies'. Look at Kyrgizstan and a new constitution in a matter of weeks and Iran after 100 years plus. 

OKtaby

P.S.: title quote is B. Franklin. Second is Einstein. 


divaneh

Good Analysis

by divaneh on

Fully agreed. A war will be the worst disaster for the Iranian nation and its struggle.


fooladi

"my views on thing may seem contradictory and provocative "

by fooladi on

Well keep your views for amat, you islamic rat in closet.


Bavafa

Glad to see a much more relevant and to the point pic here

by Bavafa on

I specially like the text/message displayed by her as that resonate the most with me. My hats off to her for having the bravery to keep that sign so high up.

Oktaby:

First, thanks for the great blog and even greater pic in the blog.

However my views on thing may seem contradictory and provocative to you, it has been clear and consistent for me.

Mehrdad


oktaby

We are likely to be victims of our own greed

by oktaby on

and ignorance. Someone very smart once said: "I know not with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones."  

Monda, thanks.

fooladi, don't disagree. There are different drivers & MOs for wanting a war but they are all economic calculations and have little to do with anything remotely human. For all sides that is. The current global economy is at an impasse that a change in economic policy will not be able to solve. War is an economic option.

OKtaby


Monda

Agreed

by Monda on

Thank you Oktaby for writing this blog.


fooladi

Oktaby

by fooladi on

I dont believe any of us knows where Iran is on nuclear path. Sometimes I wonder even if CIA knows much. My point was Israel's top priority is the integrity of the Jewish state. The'd do anything to secure that. Also I believe that when israel attacked Saddam's nuclear facility, those facilities were nowhere near weaponistaion. Just his assumed intent was enough to send the israeli jets flying.

Islamic regime is making lots of theatening noises. Dont assume that Israeli policy makers are all super cool calculating people. They are like I and you, except they are politicians, which makes the matters worse.


oktaby

fooladi, I am not sure if Israel really cares

by oktaby on

beyond 'normal' whether IRR has nuclear weapons. That is mostly just a facade for them as well. The key with nuclear power is the sophistication of the means to deliver or prevent them. On both fronts IRR is way behind in every aspect.

Bavafa, I would have presumed agreement on this.  Your contradictory and provocative views overall, however, leave me cold.

OKtaby


oktaby

Good point CoP

by oktaby on

It did not take a war to install what we got. Indeed war with the mighty Iranian military then was not much of an option and so stated in several cases. 

OKtaby


fooladi

The unpleasent truth

by fooladi on

Is the islamic regime, slowly but surely is leading Iran to exactly to same, if not worse fate as saddam led Iraqis to.

Make no mistake about it, Israel under no circumstances would allow IRI armed with nuclear weapon. If they attck, america will surely step in. It would not be a "limited surgical strike", civilians, our family and friends, will be killed...........

Two ways to prevent this:

1) Islamic regime stops it's nuclear ambitions: Highly unlikely, that is all they have to keep the public distracted.

2) Collapse of Islamic regime. This would be the ideal scenario in my opinion. 


Bavafa

Could not agree more, entirely

by Bavafa on

A war with Iran is nothing but a pure criminal act and a betrayal towards Iranian people. I had never believed that the West is "a friend" to the Iranian people. They are only after their own interest and greed. But this war would be of much bigger magnitude of a crime to the Iranian people as they are currently in their struggle for freedom and this war will surely kill that struggle. The war will be the best gift US/Israel can give to the criminal & illegitimate IRI.

Mehrdad

P.S. I would not have chosen the above pix for two reason, first and foremost, it is a disrespect to the 6 million Jews that vanished in the hands of Nazis. Second, it will give the propagandist a tool to use and demonize Iranians ever more so.


Cost-of-Progress

Agreed

by Cost-of-Progress on

I have never believed that war is the answer here. Afterall, it did not take a war to install the cockroach theocracy and it should not take one to dethrone it.

CoP 

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IRAN FIRST

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