What is the meaning of the radicalization in IRI’s foreign policy led by AhmadiNejad (AN)? Is there a real break with the foreign policies of his two predecessors? If we look closely, we can see that there exist both, a number of traits confirming the continuity in IRI’s foreign policy and also the emergence of new axes indicating profound and real changes.
Regarding the former, it is obvious that in a system where KHAmenei Rahbar (KHAR) holds the most important political position in Iran, as the Supreme Leader of the Revolution since the last sixteen years, he personifies in some sense the continuity factor. It is to be noted that the pragmatic speeches of both Rafsanjani and Khatami had this effect to conceal or hide KHAR’s hardline statements.
Regarding the change, Ahmadinejad breaks with the past, because he does not longer represent a barrier between KHAR’s harsh positions and the political scene. He says out loud what it is probably thought in the circle around KHAR. The proof is that none of his remarks has been denied, for now, by the IRI’s leader. Beyond this difference, we also see the caming to power of a new generation of militants trained in the elite divisions of the Revolutionary Guards which transforms the structures of power in Iran.
This contributes to the militarization of the government. This trend is particularly worrying as it falls amid the nuclear crisis and the quagmire in Iraq. This stagnation is seen in Tehran as a factor contributing to the sanctuarizatin of the iranian territory. In this context, the revival of revolutionary ambitions of the Islamic regime is unlikely in the short term at least, to generate strong reactions from the American side.
But the strategy of confrontation with the international community practiced by Ahmadinejad hides serious dangers for the people of Iran. Never before in the history of IRI, the country had been in such a bad posture.
Anti-Zionism, the hate of the west, the intransigence in the nuclear issue and, more generally, the excesses in AN’s speeaches have cemented the Western diplomatic front. His statements have also shaken Russians and Chinese, the historical allies of IRI. This has also resulted in a decreasing support of the non-aligned countries like India and Brazil. Iran may be buried in isolation and the price of such a policy might be very high for our country and Iranians.
At the end, I have received the image above in an email sent by a friend and Shazdeh, a very good friend of mine in IC, suggested to post a blog on the issue. The moving image by itself resumes very well AN’s offending foreign policy. But, as we Iranians use to say
یک بار جستی ملخی، دو بار جستی ملخی، آخر به دستی ملخی
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