Musings of a former chicken

Abarmard, MOOSIRvaPIAZ

1- Sanctions have a negative connotation for the entire country. That's not the government alone, this includes the people.

If that was ever the case - and I'm not sure it was as I've seen much favorable coverage about Iranians (not IRI) throughout the 1990s - its not the case now, since last summer.

...there is an open invitation for all Iranians to participate to shape their own future. Who will not count your vote in NIAC?

You meant to say "Iranian Americans" there, right? Although there's the outstanding issue of the fact that the founder and president is not Iranian-American but I'm sure that's a mere technicality. Maybe a name change to "National Iranian Council" would do the trick? But that doesn't really work does it? Because what nation does it represent? Iran or US? Since the membership is restricted to Iranians, I guess the answer is obvious. therefore, perhaps just "Iranian Council"? But in addition to the bad image such a name would give to a group which llobbies in the US, there's the problem of it having the same "IC" acronym that this website does. And since this website had more members than NIAC does I think that's a non-starter. It's quite a dilemma! 

EDIT for MOOSIRvaPIAZ,

Iran is not china. One of the strongest womens rights movement in the region is from Iran. 

Women already have (generally) equal rights in China. That's one thing the communists have always believed in. On this cultural aspect, Iran does not come out ahead of China - it comes out far behind. And that's why a strong women's righst movement is required in the first place.As far as the "strong democracy movement" - have you ever heard of Tiennemen Square? That was almost 20 years ago. Where's the democracy movement in China now?

What does that have to do with anything?

vildemose

Fallacy 1 (Economic appeal): Free market forces will eventually open
up the political process. This argument is wrong at many levels. First,
let' assume there is free market in Iran; there is never been a
scientific correlation made between free market and political reform.
Indeed, take a look at China, there was a lot of hope that economic
progress would lead to a more democratic China. Not only that has not
happened, but Olympic organizers this past year admitted that in some
instances HR situation is been getting worse. Why? Because countries
such as China, and Iran who provide the world with an important
commodity (Labor, and Oil respectively) even in free market are
shielded from political forces that may accompany the free market
forces.

Iran is not china. One of the strongest womens rights movement in the region is from Iran.  Iran has a vibrant and active pro-democracy movement that cannot be forcefully removed unless a major conflict happens in the region. Sanctions lead to that inevitable confrontation. 

Fallacy 2: Sanctions only hurt ordinary, and poor Iranians
(emotional appeal). None sense. All the important economic leverages
are in the hands of the oligarchy. There is absolutely no evidence that
sanctions would open up more opportunities for the ordinary poor
Iranians. Here is a good example: With Oil revenues above 100 billion
dollars annually, some 35 billion dollars has gone missing (according
to IR's own accounting). Even cash (the simplest of economic tools) has
not trickled down. Iranians are poorer today than they were before the
rapid rise of oil prices. As a matter of fact, Oligarchy has stolen
more, invested more abroad i.e. in South Africa. What makes these folks
so sure that lifting of sanctions wouldd somehow be allowed to trickle
down to the most needy in Iran? If you believe in this, you have to
believe in Reaganomics theory of trickle down. Absolutely nonsense!

"Criminalizing Consequences of Sanctions," Peter Andreas, International Studies Quarterly 49 (June 2005): pp. 335-60.
Read

One of the biggest flaws of the sanctions literature has been the
failure to discuss unintended consequences. Humanitarian costs have
been raised above, but what about other side effects? Peter Andreas
looks at the consequences of the multilateral sanctions directed at the
former Yugoslavia during the 1990s and finds a disturbing legacy.
Economic sanctions, it turns out, can unintentionally contribute to the
criminalization of the state, economy, and civil society of both the
targeted country and its immediate neighbors. By trying to evade the
sanctions, private entrepreneurs and public officials are encouraged to
disregard the rule of law. This fosters an unhealthy symbiosis among
political leaders, organized crime, and transnational smuggling
networks. These criminal networks can persist even after sanctions are
lifted, contributing to public corruption and undermining governance.

Fallacy 3: sanctions give the regime excuse to blame foreigners
(political appeal). So what people say here is that Iranian people are
too stupid to recognize the real root cause of their problems. They
know the system is rotten, the government is rotten, and run by a bunch
of thieves, yet they would blame the U.S for their misery. I can see
American goods being priced out of the market because of sanctions, how
about the execution of teenagers? What does that have to do with
sanctions? If Iranian people are too stupid to recognize the real root
cause of their problems, American foreign policy should not change to
correct that. American foreign policy, including its economic leverage
is there to advance American interest, not to educate the Iranian
masses.  

A good case can be made that sanctions (a policy of confrontation short of war) do more to unify the leadership than to split them. Now this is nor in the interst of Americans nor Iranians. The deeper the split in the leadership, the more change for political reform. 

 Keep in mind that I speak from an Iranian perspective and someone who has the Iranian people's best interest at heart. 

 Unfortunately Iranian people are not strong enough to counter this regime. What needs to be done is to split the leadership and help the pro-democracy movement get in through the cracks and push their agenda.

 Where is Hassan Dai's

 Where is Hassan Dai's response?

Abamrad: since when

Abamrad: since when basiji's and hezbollahi have become true Iranians??

Lastly Vilademous-and anti NIAC crowd

I recall reading some similar arguments that you have printed here. Without going in to details let us agree first that the Iranian dilemma is far more complicated than we like it to be. That includes the issue of sanctions that can be confusing.

To give you a quick and simple glance at what comes along with sanctions, if not ending with war:

1- Sanctions have a negative connotation for the entire country. That's not the government alone, this includes the people.

2- Sanctions don't work. The objective of sanctions is to cripple a system as to punish. A country such as Iran will not be isolated. The government will remain powerful and in charge with worse economy. In reality the conservatives gain popularity with bad economy.
Example: Many families and young will join Basij forces in order to gain some benefits. During that time, many become sympathetic to the causes of conservatives.

3- Bad image results in bad trades. Meaning the individual companies will not be able to function and go out of business, while the government trades and imports increases. The government can function and find ways to divert the trade sanctions since it has means to do so, but non government manufacturing and trades move out. That's more of government employment and less of independet workers.

4- Larger government controls larger masses- as the government grows, the employees of the government will grow and dependency grows. The lack of savings and funds won't allow the possibility of any uprising, since there is a quick replacement of employment.

5- sanctions create mafia crimes- Sanctions are a proven system for underground trades, that normally is under the control of a authoritarian system. During Khatami there was some work done in order to clarify the fundings and economic activities. That was when Iran and US were showing a possibility of friendship.

6- Who will get hurt? You have no choice to flip flop. You must stand for what you believe. If you believe that sanctions have been good for the people, and bad for the government, bad for both, or any combination you like, then you have a right to think so. However you are not a member of NIAC and you do not have a voice there. I voted in NIAC site to lift sanctions. The majority of the members did the same. If we have more members that are not agreeing with lifting the sanctions, then we need those individuals join in and voice their opinions. Simple as that and there is no more discussion left.

The NIAC is not an organization that claims to have all the right answers, nor claims to have come from God above. The laws are meant to be reviewed, and challenged. Become a member, then you have a voice, Otherwise write here on Mr. Fred's blog and say to me and couple of others that you think sanctions are good.

I don't think this is an Iranian trait, but it is a bad trait for people to accuse and blame for no reason while there is an open invitation for all Iranians to participate to shape their own future. Who will not count your vote in NIAC? I will be the first who stands up and decline my membership.

Join in and be a true part of the Iranian community in the US.

MOOSIRvaPIAZ & Abarmard

Here is a comment from Faribors Maleknasri M.D.(with or without his permission)

What a peculiar suggestion. How could bankrupties as western countries
make harm to islamic Republic of Iran by sanctions? The mighty and rich
and most stabilized country in the region? However 1978/79 as the
waésterns BA BUGH O KARNA begann their "SANCTION"s against that country the believers meant it is a great Blessing of God on us. Just those
sanctions helped the honorable Iranian Nation to bring back Life in
their country.

I think I can find a lot of other comments on this website to copy-paste for you!  In the copy-paste wars, my keyboard stands ready!And thanks for developing this tactic. It's much less frustrating than trying to have a rational discussion with people whose contributions are the virtual equiavalent of smearing excrement on the wall.

Abarmard,

Now back to our regular programming... 

All about Israel, nothing about Iran. How was that not "our" regular programming on this website?

NIAC under Trita Parsi's

NIAC under Trita Parsi's leadership can easily become full-time lobbyists  against war and sanctions against Iran but not under the guise of being an Iranian-American grass root political activisim. Just stop the deception and regain your credibility. You don't need to hide behind a fake American grass root to voice your abhorance against war and sanctions against Iran.

Interesting note

As a commercial break, perhaps it might be interesting for some of you to know that the European Union (that advocates peace and Human Rights) has declined the possibility of an independet Palestinian State as "they are not ready" yet excuse.

So the war continues and debates go on as who is in fault when an entire civilization of a nation is humiliated/degraded to bunch of refugees.

Now back to our regular programming...

 This is a comment in

 This is a comment in response to an old article here reagrding sanctions.

//iranian.com/main/2008/remove-sanctions

 by Parthian

"The article, along with all the supportive commentaries it has received lack substance. It is become a tactic to frame any issues (especially those benefiting the regime) as something that will ultimately benefit the Iranian people, and might even led to regime change. This is an absurd assertion at best.

Fallacy 1 (Economic appeal): Free market forces will eventually open up the political process. This argument is wrong at many levels. First, let' assume there is free market in Iran; there is never been a scientific correlation made between free market and political reform. Indeed, take a look at China, there was a lot of hope that economic progress would lead to a more democratic China. Not only that has not happened, but Olympic organizers this past year admitted that in some instances HR situation is been getting worse. Why? Because countries such as China, and Iran who provide the world with an important commodity (Labor, and Oil respectively) even in free market are shielded from political forces that may accompany the free market forces.

Now, let's look at the alternative which is the reality in Iran, there is no free market in Iran, but it might eventually come as a result of lifting the sanctcions. Iran has been under sanction for the past 30 years to some extent, although the extent of these sanctions have been variable. In the last 30 years, the economic situation has consistenly deteriorated, and although, several privatization plans were drawn up, none of the governments(reformers, conservatives) have truly and genuinely implemented these plans. Deep down IR knows that free market would mean their down fall, understanding this important fact, they will not allow the free market to take hold. Just as democracy is only practiced among the oligarchy, free market is only practiced at that level, and not below. IR wants a dependent population, that is how governments seize power, and create influence. We don't need the lifting of sanctions to have internal free market.

Fallacy 2: Sanctions only hurt ordinary, and poor Iranians (emotional appeal). None sense. All the important economic leverages are in the hands of the oligarchy. There is absolutely no evidence that sanctions would open up more opportunities for the ordinary poor Iranians. Here is a good example: With Oil revenues above 100 billion dollars annually, some 35 billion dollars has gone missing (according to IR's own accounting). Even cash (the simplest of economic tools) has not trickled down. Iranians are poorer today than they were before the rapid rise of oil prices. As a matter of fact, Oligarchy has stolen more, invested more abroad i.e. in South Africa. What makes these folks so sure that lifting of sanctions wouldd somehow be allowed to trickle down to the most needy in Iran? If you believe in this, you have to believe in Reaganomics theory of trickle down. Absolutely nonsense!

Fallacy 3: sanctions give the regime excuse to blame foreigners (political appeal). So what people say here is that Iranian people are too stupid to recognize the real root cause of their problems. They know the system is rotten, the government is rotten, and run by a bunch of thieves, yet they would blame the U.S for their misery. I can see American goods being priced out of the market because of sanctions, how about the execution of teenagers? What does that have to do with sanctions? If Iranian people are too stupid to recognize the real root cause of their problems, American foreign policy should not change to correct that. American foreign policy, including its economic leverage is there to advance American interest, not to educate the Iranian masses.  

Who's behind attacking NIAC?

From IranDokht again with her permission:

by IRANdokht on Mon Nov 16, 2009 10:16 AM PST

Because NIAC favors cautious engagement with Iran and opposes war on it or trying to break it up, the rightwing Israel lobbies and the Chalabi wannabes among Iranian-Americans want to destroy it. Neocon hatchet man Eli Lake made a run at the organization in a muddled op-ed for the Washington Times ... MEK has its tentacles into Congress through effective fronts like IPC.

All Americans who support an end to the Eternal War scenario of the hawks, and who want an equitable peace with Iran, should join NIAC and/or send it money.
If we let the Neocons and MEK destroy it, we will have no grounds to complain when President Palin conscripts our children and sends them to die in a fruitless war on Tehran.

And remember, the attack on NIAC is explicitly intended to wound Obama and pave the way for a President Palin.

masoudA

NIAC rejecting interview doesnt prove anything. But I agree with you that they need to do a better job at countering these baseless accusations. 

About bringing Israel into the discussion. Ever consideered that they were involved with all the smear campaign agains moderate voices in washington? Has it occured to you that they have a dedicated group of individuals doing their bidding in America? I suggest you read Walt and Mersheimers book on the lobby.

Dear DK

The fact that NIAC wanted the United States to stop funding the "Iranian" opposition can be traced to a few important points:

1- Iranians don't trust organizations that are funded by the foreign powers

2- putting aside a funding (by the US) would destroy the image of all the oppositions including those that are based on people's support. Who is going to prove which is funded by who? (In this case IRI would benefit by the US funding, arguing that they are all foreign based groups)

3- The NIAC always has promoted against the international interference with the Iranian movement other than Human Rights.

The organization is concerned with the overall welfare of the Iranian community, and that, similar to many other organizations that are promoting cultural and social exchange such as Irish, Italians, and etc. tries to do the same.
The international affairs in regard to Iran and Iranian policy to benefit the Iranian image inside the US is well in the scope of the NIAC objectives.

Let me know if you have more questions.

Loool Moosir

Pesar Jaan - I just posted a youtube interview in which VOA announces Trita Parsi and other NIAC people had declined interviews with them....  How did I become MKO all of a sudden? 

You know when a media thirsty individual like Parsi declines VOA interviews - it is usually a sign of $hit hitting the fan. 

Also - I find it funny how IRR agents always find a way to divert ANY discussion into a talk about Isreal, Zionists, and the Arabs. 

That's an absurd claim to

That's an absurd claim to be making. The USSR collapsed largely due to
economic hardships that the communists were unable to resolve. The
Chinese government on the other hand has never been more secure - due
to the economic prosperity.

I'm not willing to put my countrymen under severe "economic hardship" and hope for the best that they will topple the regime through violent means.

And by the way last tiem I checked it was the middle class with the
educated and politically active youth that were protesting in the
streets already. What needs to happen in Iran before IRI can be
disposed of is for the masses to join the movement. And that is the
result you want, isn't it? So what's your game plan for mobilizing the
masses? Do tell!

More sanctions, more pressure on the middle-class. They become more dependent on the state.

When the middle-class have no food to put on the table you wont care about democracy and secularims, you will care about providing your family with the basic necessities. 

The state has oil, they can enrich their own base.

MOOSIRvaPIAZ & DK & Mola

Ironically, the best way to destabilize a ponderous, oppressive
government such as Iran's is to ensure the growth of a strong middle class in the target country with an educated and politically active youth.

That's an absurd claim to be making. The USSR collapsed largely due to economic hardships that the communists were unable to resolve. The Chinese government on the other hand has never been more secure - due to the economic prosperity.

And by the way last tiem I checked it was the middle class with the educated and politically active youth that were protesting in the streets already. What needs to happen in Iran before IRI can be disposed of is for the masses to join the movement. And that is the result you want, isn't it? So what's your game plan for mobilizing the masses? Do tell!

DK,

I saw Afschineh Latifi on a talk show promoting her book, and ordered it on Amazon that day. That's the only one of the Iranian bios I've read. She impressed me that much :)

Mola,

You have discovered a new tactic!  You copy pasted IRANdokht's comment form another post, and that comment itself was a copy paste of a blog entry on some unknown's website. How many levels of copy-pasting the opinions of random internet nutjobs does it take before it can be construed as a reliable source of information - let alone "evidence"?

JJ, are these really the people you want to associate yourself with? The more they talk the more NIAC and its supporters get marginalized.

.

.

Zal gets it wrong

I have the right to attack views which, if carried out by the US, will make Iranians in my country suffer.

timothyfloyd speaks for Israel

The threats are only obvious to people who only listen to what Bibi Netanyahu and his AIPAC friends have to say. The neocons and likudniks strategy for middle-east is power through strength. Which means painting their adversaries as great soviet-like powers, which also means trying to counter the threats by endless war for Israel.

IRR is a paper-tiger.   IRR is not stupid to directly challange Israel. They know that its suicide. But you people give them power through your ill advised policies in the region. 

Thanks JJ and Amir1073 for

Thanks JJ and Amir1073 for sound and logical comments. As you know.. I am a Pro IRI just you yourselves.

However, any body or group that is against attacking or starting an unjust war with Iran will get my vote and support. As for sanction, that should be each countries purgative to do or not do business with another country but they should not arm twist all other countries to follow suit. But I agree that sanction will not help with the demise of IRI only prolongs it.

Mehrdad

Per earlier 2 cents comments, notice the MO

moosiropiaz among other aliases attacking any opposing view including several after this one, per MO I mentioned earlier.  "MoosirvaPIaZ: Cutting through the BS, so you dont have to."

Moosiropiaz cutting through: No wonder it stinks 

Lets hear it from the iranian dotcome Ghost Buster, IranDokht

This is from her comment yesterday:

by IRANdokht on Mon Nov 16, 2009 08:40 PM PST

//www.ips.org/blog/jimlobe/?p=310

"Ben-David ... a longtime AIPAC official, he now lives in the West Bank settlement of Efrat. (See MJ Rosenberg, a former AIPAC colleague of his, for background on this unpleasant-sounding man.) But Ben-David achieved special notoriety last month for his role in the smear campaign against the pro-Israel group J Street — a campaign that shared many of the hallmarks of the current one against NIAC. Ben-David published an attack on J Street that was sleazy even by the standards of that campaign; his main criticism was that the group had the temerity to mingle with, and even accept donations from, people with Arab names. Evidently such things are not done in the settlements. Unfortunately for Ben-David, one of his targets — the New American Foundation’s Rebecca Abou-Chedid, smeared as an anti-Semite apparently due solely to her last name — fought back, and Spencer Ackerman also wrote a memorable demolition of Ben-David’s transparent racism.

In any case, it seems that we now know who Michael Goldfarb is getting his talking points from. Between Daioleslam, Timmerman, and now Ben-David, NIAC appears to have the right choice of enemies."

Moose your changing the subject

From the obvious threats to Isreal from Iran to who is running Iran..

Why?

Have a wonderful free day!

Moose your changing the subject

From the obvious threats to Isreal from Iran to who is running Iran..

Why?

Have a wonderful free day!

Israel will save Iran

Israel will save Iran.

timothyfloyd too gets it wrong

Again, this shows how much you know about Iran. a) Ahmadinejad says "death to Israel" doesnt give you much b) He too is a nobody. The real powers with Khamenei and his IRGC maafia.

ex programmer craig gets it wrong

Newsflash! IRI has been waging proxy war against Israel for nearly 30
years. You can't un-ring that bell just by making an assertion, though
that's a typical IRI tactic.

Well newsflash, Israel has been doing the same through the Baluchi/Kurdish regions! It's hardly exclusive to IRR. When it comes to proxywars, most powers do it! 

Oh, well I'm sure you won't mind if I start copy-pasting stuff in here from people you've never heard of either, then :P

You've never heard from him because you choose to get your talking points from mainstream beltway sources.

masoudA's propaganda work

i love how the video cuts out Ahmadi's response and lets MEK members brother have his way.

I also love how the video comes from a Maryam Rajavi supporter channel: //www.youtube.com/user/azadmishavadiran 

Credit where is due, MEK people are masters at propaganda work and branching out to more subtle activities. You are not fooling anyone.

I love when they got caught with their pants down during an interview at VOA. ( Alireza Jafarzadeh, a foxnews regular ). Sooner or later Hassain Dai will get caught as well. He has managed to hide his true affiliation/intention well. 

And remember, all the sources of smears are from this Hassan Dai character. It should give everyone pause. 

I shoulda asked the Moose!!

I could have learned far more about Iranian politics from Moose than Katami!! What about Ahmadinjhad? Is he ignorant of Iranian politics also? Why don't you watch this

//www.youtube.com/watch?v=FckLO8HcNyo

Have a wonderful free day!

MOOSIRvaPIAZ

The nonsense that Iran wants to go to war with Israel is an Israeli Likudnik talking point. 

Newsflash! IRI has been waging proxy war against Israel for nearly 30 years. You can't un-ring that bell just by making an assertion, though that's a typical IRI tactic.

I copy/pasted because I could not have said it better myself.

Oh, well I'm sure you won't mind if I start copy-pasting stuff in here from people you've never heard of either, then :P

JJ, is that against site policy?