Why Iran escape a common tide in the Middle East


by FG

Widespread Anti-Dictatorship Trend Deepens in Mideast

1. People no longer accept dictators in ANY guise.

Suits and ties? Turbans? Military uniforms? It makes no difference.

2. Two biggest reasons why the public won’t sit still for such things anymore

--In the modern age it is no longer possible to hid the opportunities and freedom people have elsewhere.

--People believe they could be enjoying the same if not for selfish, corrupt and brutal rulers.

If governments offered what the people really want, who could stir them up? Dictators’ behavior enrages people. They don’t need Al Queda, foreign journalists and agents, the MKO, etc., to stir them up. Nobody is buying such propaganda. Making such claims deepens popular scorn and demonstrates how out of touch such rulers are.

3. Notice how people’s demands are virtually identical in Egypt, Tunisia, Libya, Iran, Bahrain, etc.

Common Demands: True democracy. Free and fair elections. Human rights. A fair and unbiased judiciary. A free press. People also insist on economic progress. If a system comes to exist for the benefit of a few privileged insiders, the public won't be fooled for long.

4. Notice why some regimes can’t save themselves via last minute reforms.

The longer reform is deferred and the more vicious or unjust a regime becomes, the deeper and wider the cleavages. Virtually every segment of the population is driven into opposition, radicallized and driven to the one logical conclusion--The regime must go. Anything less becomes unthinkable. The prospect of living years more under such governments is so unbearable that death and martyrdom become acceptable. People will then do whatever it takes to get out from under.

TWICE MISSING THE BOAT: The Islamic Republic’s best chance of surviving would have been to allow Mohammed Khatemi’s reforms instead of torpedoing them. Had the real results of the last election been allowed to stand and subsequent reforms allowed, it would have increased this regime’s life expectancy.

Notice how--with each passing day--the public has shifted from blaming The Puppet (Ahmadinejad) to the real source (Death to Khamenei).  Khamenei has lost so much respect, the Islamic Republic is doomed even if he apologized publicly, reversed himself 180 degrees, appointed a cabintet of well-known opposition figures and attempted to draw up a new constitution.   The best it might accomplish is to save his life and keep him out of jail.  To allow any Supreme Leader, even a ceremonial one like the English monarch with no real power, is unthinkable now.


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