WASTE OF TIME: 50 "Reform" Parties Unite to Choose 2012 Presidential Candidate

by FG

NEWS ITEM: "50 reformist parties exist in Iran, and each will choose 10 delegates for a conference to choose a candidate for the 2013 Presidential election."

FACTS WIDELY KNOWN AMONG IRANIANS:   1. Except for one man, no reformist who runs can make a difference in a rotten system. 2. No advocate of SERIOUS (not minor) reform will be allowed to run.    3. Should one mistakenly slip by (Moussavi) all Iranians know what will happen.   (See 2009)  4. In any case Khamenei would simply veto all reforms, reinstituting his covert death squads if need be (See Khatami presidency).   5. Since the reformers won control of the Majlis in 2000, the Guardian Council has been ordered to use its vetting powers to restict them to keep reformers to "token numbers only." Hence these elections are an equal farce.
CONCLUSION: The only guy whose candidacy can make a difference is Khoumeini's grandson, an advocate to replacing a rotten system with an open, democratic society.  Should he announce his candidacey, young Khoumeini is the one an only man who can put the regime in a "damned if you do, damned if you don't" spot.  Let him run because he'd win in a landslide too big to rig.  Vet him out and advertise the illegitimacy of all that Khamenei has done since seizing power.    

more from FG

Iran auto production plunges by a third

by FG on

The automotive sector generates about 500,000 direct and indirect jobs in Iran, according to official estimates.




Video: Saudis stuffed Body of dead Shia activist in toilet

by FG on

The victim 17-year-old Abdullah Jaafar al-Lajami was killed in Awwmiya in Eastern Province last night



The Saudis are as dumb as Assad and Khamenei.   How many more people will join the protests in Saudi Arabia after seeing this video?   Surely the strategic purpose of any anti-proest action is to dimininish unrest--NOT increase it.

Thus in Syria, James Miller's recent report on the FSA's growing success noted how a recent village massacre increased defections and added to FSA recruits. It also backfired abroad.

In Iran every boneheaded, hardline move Khamenei has made since 2009 is coming back to haunt him.  A revolution feeds on its martyrs.  Don't these guys get it.   Attacks on relatives of protestors is also a big motivator.  

Again the problem is that short-run "gains" of this sort result in much bigger long-run losses for such rulers. 



Correction: Original Post Should Say 2013, not 2012

by FG on

If I use "edit," the post will disappear from the front page blogs so I'm using this method.

In news items yesterday, I also posted an interesting analysis by Charles Krauthammer enitled "the Islamist Ascendancy."   Since it never made the home page, many readers may have missed it.  If the topic interests you, here goes:



How do you get this site to recognize INTENDED paragraphs?

by FG on

Looking at my preview of the original post and subposts here, I don't know why anyone would want to read them.  It's a terrible jumble.  Sometimes someone straights out the paragraphs but I haven't got a clue how to do that.


The REGIME'S 2013 ELECTION DILEMNA: Worse than ever

by FG on

Everything has gone sour for the regime since Khamenei chose to derail badly needly reforms in 2009.  It can only get worse now as each election becomes scarier.    In retrospect, Khamenei and the IRI would be immensely much better off had they kept hands off. That, however, would be out of character.  Now it's too late for reform because--as in Syria--regimes that choose brutality over reform to survive become so tainted living under them becomes unthinkable.   As the downside comes into play, long-run problems replace short-run gains  THE PROBABLE ENVIRONMENT ON ELECTION DAY 2013  1. Inflation will likely excede 50% with or without sanctions. 2. Sanctions will still be in effect unless Khamenei has eaten Humble Pie. 3. Khamenei's reputation will be in tatters even among one-time believers as word of his actions in 2009 spread.  You can help via Twitter.  Here's your chance to strike a blow. Pass it on!  //www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/jul/12/khamenei-accused-blood-on-hands) 4. Assad's regime will likely have fallen. 5. Russia and China won't be nearly as enthusiastic about sticking up for Iran when Assad falls since in the Arab world they'll already be paying, diplomatically, for having supported one tyrant. 6. Two other regime allies will be in deep doo-doo:  Hezbollah (cut off in Lebanon) and Iraq (the new Syrian regime will encourage troublesome to head for Iraq) 7. Given these circumstances above, nothing short of an unvetted Khoumeini candidacy will persuade most people to turn out. Vetting him out will trigger revolution. Government workers must stay home this time regardless of threats over job losses.   What good are jobs or bribes when the money becomes equally worthless and if the price is to prolong the agony of a hopeless life under this regime? If courageous Syrians can stand up to tanks, shelling and snipers, Iranian workers can afford to stay home. A post-election general strike followed by a Syria-like two pronged strategy (large peaceful resistence accompanied by armed defense of demonstrators by defectors) should do the job.  Once defectors start defending the people, this regime can count on its military and security forces even less than Assad.