FG

Latest on economic problems & Islamic Republic's prospects

1915 GMT: On the Economic Front (cont.): The Central Bank has issued a gloomy report about Iran’s economic performance in recent months, with declining investment, output, and exports. The report has appeared in both the Green movement’s Rah-e-Sabz and the pro-Rafsanjani Ayande News.

1800 GMT: On the Economic Front. The Swiss engineering group ABB AG has stopped taking new orders in Iran with a view to ending operations in the country.

Note: Both of the above appeared in enduring American.   How long will it be until Swiss diplomats are arrested for spies?  Is it safe for any western country to maintain an embassy and diplomatic relations with this regime?  It's like inviting them to take you hostage.

I also like this passage in a letter from Arshama at the same site:

Killing protesters on Ashura and closing down mosques during the holy month of Moharram alongside with rising poverty (47 % of Iranians below poverty line) are the two most evident proofs for the failure of a system, which prides itself on being Islamic and committed to the “mostazafan” (deprived). I believe that the process of democratisation and secularisation, which started with Khatami and the reformers is irreversible and is slowly spreading throughout the Iranian society.

Finally, I like this passage from an analysis by Pelin on why Mousavi and Karoubbi persist in apparently believing the Islamic Republic can be saved at this point via reform:

Discussing whether holding the middle ground (reform within the system) is a sincere belief or just a strategy by Karroubi and Mousavi is such a byzantine debate!

First, because even if they wanted, challenging the regime upfront (by calling for an end to the Islamic Republic) would be plain suicidal from the duo, and would allow the regime to present them as traitors (or “mohareb”) and break the green movement. Let’s not forget they ran for elections within the regime framework, giving away the middle ground – their best line of defense for now – would play perfectly in the regime’s hands as it would make it much easier to isolate them and divide the green movement.

Second,...I have witnessed directly the fall of communism in Eastern Europe, and there are some similarities with what’s going on in Iran. Once a dynamic of challenge to the regime is put in motion, even if initially led by moderate reformists, it’s all but certain that it will lead to the regime’s end, because it’s just impossible to halt it middle of the road – even if the initial (moderate) leaders may not realize it. Remember Gorbatchev only wanted to reform – and keep in place – the communist system.

Also, some of the champions of the anti-communist revolutions started their fight by challenging the regime to live up to its declared principles (which of course it could not) rather than calling for regime change upfront (which would have made them much easier targets for repression).

Actually, in my reading the system (of the Islamic Republic) missed its chance to survive when it denied the election victory of moderate reformist Mousavi. Halting the challenge half-way – at least for some time – was still possible then, as it had been under Khatami. But by choosing the path of radical confrontation (thus abandoning the middle ground), the regime signed it death warrant, and is now living on borrowed time.