UH-OH! Delicious audio tape of hardliners' meeting suggests serious PANIC


by FG


We're not talking about the panic over the currency, the panic over an oil boycott, the panic over a potential conflict in the Gulf or the panic over a likely Ahmadinejad victory in the upcoming elections should reformers stay home (as most will). Note that Janatti is now threatening to vet out candidates who have spent too much money and it's obvious who he means.


From Enduring America:

"The pro-Ahmadinejad Raha Press claims it has audio tapes of a meeting of hardliners who fear that the President will publish the 140,000 documents exposing wrongdoing among Iran's top officials. The site adds that the hardliners want to push the Supreme Leader to dismiss Ahmadinejad."

Wouldn't you love to hear it? Who does the talking? What do they have to say about targeting specific individuals imprisoned, raped or killed? Who is splitting up stolen money? Is this how Ahmadinejad plans to deter the Guardian Council from excessive vetting (see Janatti's threat above) or the regime from arrests? How would the Iranian people react if these documents get out? What can regime censors do to contain the damage?

You can bet Ahmadinejad has made lots of copies. Whether this stuff gets released before the regime's fall (which it could trigger by encouraging defections) or afterwards (great for trial evidence), it sounds explosive. Maybe this explains why Ahmadinejad's brother-in-law remains untouched and why Mahmoud is confident he won't be vetted out by the Guardian Council in the next presidential elections. Smart move!

Here's a link to the Raha Press


THE NEXT BEST NEWS ITEM: New rules for Internet Cafes Reflect Regime Fears of its People

Golnaz Esfandiari updates on new measures by Iran's cyber-police to monitor and restrict use of the Web in Internet cafes. The personal information of visitors, including name, father's name, national ID number, and telephone number, will be registered. Cafe owners must keep the personal and contact information of the users and a record of their browsing history for six months.

The cafes must also install closed-circuit cameras and keep video recordings for six months. Installation of circumvention tools allowing access to banned websites is illegal.

The cafes have 15 days to implement the restrictions, announced on 3 January. (From EA)

THIRD BEST NEWS ITEM: Rial starts dropping again

After authorities shut down currency websites on Wednesday, in an attempt to impose a "proper" rate of 14000.

The rial opened at 15920:1 this morning, but demand for dollars soon moved the rate to 16200:1.


more from FG

Guardian says: Khamenei is running scared

by FG on



 Seen from Tehran, the most serious threat to the survival of the regime
led by supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei comes from within, not
without – a consideration not sufficiently understood in the west. The
political establishment is riven by deep divisions, principally between
economic reformers loyal to President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, and clerical
arch-conservatives backed by the Revolutionary Guards and a wealthy,
corrupt merchant class that has grown fat on the 1979 revolution.

 Khamenei appears to be trying to hold the line between the two factions. What worries him more than the movements of the USS John C Stennis aircraft carrier group in the Gulf,
or even US and EU oil sanctions, is the thought that crucial
parliamentary elections due in March could produce a permanent rupture
within the Islamic Republic. Such a split could open the way to a second
Iranian revolution.

... "The regime is now in a quandary. While it has
traditionally boasted about high voter participation as the symbol of
its legitimacy, Tehran is increasingly concerned that an election
boycott or turmoil could adversely affect its standing. In the wake of
the Arab uprisings the clerical regime is seeking to project an image of
its power and popularity. If the election becomes a dismal affair,
however, it will have the reverse effect."--commentator Yasmin Alem

... Food prices are soaring, dollars are being hoarded, and Iran's currency,
the rial, has fallen in value by 40% in recent weeks. The prospect of
sharp falls in oil export earnings – the oil industry accounts for 60%
of Iran's economy – is a dire one. Khamenei and other leaders have
indicated that such an outcome would amount to a casus belli.

 And this is the point that should worry the west's sanctioneers, fixated
by Iran's nuclear programme to the exclusion of other considerations.
At the moment the regime's deep internal contradictions could be leading
towards a revolutionary climax, the US and its allies are giving
Khamenei a possible way out by allowing him to externalise the problem
and claim that the Iranian nation is under attack from hostile foreign
forces, rather than definitively changing from within.

(FG observes: I don't see any western attack on Iran except if Iran attempts to block the Gulf or if it attacls naval forces.  In that case, I'm not sure Iranians will rally around the regime, as I wrote in my last blog here)

... confident statements by the White House and state department that Iran
is buckling under sanctions pressure appear to blithely ignore the
possibility that the regime is being pushed into a corner from which it
will come out punching, not negotiating.

(FG: Japan went to war for exactly the same reason.  The difference is that Japan was far better equipedwith a formidable navy and a fine aircraft in the Mitsiubitschi Zero.   Japan's ground forces inferior and too reliant on WWI type strategy but in the Far East the latter was less important than the other two branches.  Japan still lost even though the US grand strategy called for throwing our best at Germany and a holding action in the Pacific.   Iran has a tiny navy and a very obsolete airforce.   I susect the reliabity of many conscripts may be questionable when not fighting an enemy like Saddam or the Nazis.  People have little reason to fight enthusiasticaslly or risk their lives for a regime that represses the majority and rules for a small clique).

Maryam Hojjat

FG, Thanks for amazing News indeed.

by Maryam Hojjat on

I think AN is really smart rather than seems stupid most of the time with his BIG Mouth.


FG: That is indeed Breaking

by vildemose on

FG: That is indeed Breaking News. We just have to wait and see.

A state of war only serves as an excuse for domestic tyranny.--Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn.


Big news from Jam-e Jam

by FG on

President Ahmadinejad has been summoned to answer questions before Parliament next Tuesday. The process could lead to impeachment, if the President's answers are deemed unsatisfactory.

Critics of Ahmadinejad have attempted for months to bring in the
President for interrogation, amassing the required minimum of 73
signatures (25%+ of the 290-member Majlis). However, they were blocked
this summer by the Board of Parliament.

If this news is true, it would indicate that key players in
Parliament --- notably the Speaker, Ali Larijani --- and perhaps the
Supreme Leader have lifted their objections to questioning.--Enduring America


Picture the following sight

by FG on

Khamenenei's pants pulled down and exposed for all Iranians to see.  Ditto for his son, Mojtaba as well as Janatti, Jafari and Taeb.  These are real Bad Guys.

It's too bad the Greens didn't take such precautions.  Of course they lacked the opportunities which Ahmadinejad enjoyed.  I get the impression that he started collecting this evidence long before the feud with clerical hardliners broke out and in anticipation of that.

Also, certain to IRCG generals would probably look pretty bad--another reason Ahmadinejad hasn't already been arrested, tortured to confess and placed in a televised show trial.