The Tiannemen Analogy: Khamenei wrongly assumed people would "get over" 2009

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FG
by FG
10-Jan-2012
 

PLEASE READ FIRST: Two years ago I wrote a post here about how the regime calculated it could get away with rigging the 2009 election and especially a crackdown of major dimensions when millions protested afterward. It is time to see how well the analysis held up. So first I post the original and then the "second look." Anyone evaluating the the regime's chances of recovering the alienated must consider who precisely got alienated, when and how, which I do in another subpost. I see three different groups who only partly overlap. Each alienated group involves multi-millions. Each has different reasons for its alienation. Each became alienated at different times.

THE ORIGINAL POST:

If the Chinese government survived the Tianneman Square massacre, the Iranian government can survive its own crimes. So hardliners believe. Let’s see whether their analogy holds water.

COMPARISON BY EXCESSES: Unlike Iran, China's government didn’t rape and torture demonstrators, dump bodies in mass graves or embarass themselves with show trials. Chinese leaders knew how they would look if they put their young on trial.

COMPARISON BY MEDIA EXPOSURE: Iran expelled all foreign journalists and jailed domestic ones for the duration. China allowed CNN and other news agencies. With little access to public media, many Chinese “missed” Tianneman entirely. Givwn the excitement prior to Iran's election, who could miss what the regime did that day? Thanks to childrens, friends and even security thugs shipped to big cities from the countryside, even people without the latest electronic gadgets have a very good idea of what their government has been up to.

COMPARISON BY NUMBERS AND COMPOSITION: China’s demonstrators were small in number, cnfined mainly to one city and composed almost exclusively of a tiny segment of its young. By contrast, the large election turnout in Iran’s elections reflected widespread discontent with four years of authoritarian rule and economic incompetence. Events since have turned many Ahmadinejad voters against the gvernment. People are getting tired of a government that thrives on polarization. Discontent is strong in all social classes and age groups though strongest amng the educated and people under thirty.

COMPARISON BY DURATION: In China all signs of public discontent faded rapidly after Tianneman. In Iran the public continues to fume two months after the coup. All people talked about last week were the mass graves, the rape scandal and especially the shocking treatment of Saeed Hajjarian in another Stalist show trial. Hajjarian is a former revolutionary leader who played a major role in the American embassy attack and later became Iran’s leading human rights advocate. Paralyzed years earlier by a bullet from a regime’s death squad, he had just spent two months in regime's dungeons undergoing horrors one can only guess at. The poor man needed two men to help him reach the podium. He was so weak another that another prisoner, hands shaking, had to read his assigned “confession.” I suspect even some guards had tears in their eyes.

COMPARISON BY ECONOMIC TRENDS: Up, up, up in China. Down, Down, Down in Iran Getting worse as a result of post-election instability.

COMPARISON BY FOREIGN INVESTMENT: China attracts investment in droves. Sanctions and corruption have discouraged deter investment in Iran, where the oil industry will the only area of interest at present. Sanctions or no sanctions, people in the West will boycott any company that invests in the thugs.

COMPARISON BY FOREIGN EXPORTS: China thrives on exports. After 30 years, the Iranian "republic" still has nothing to sell the world except pistachios, rugs and oil. Western consumers wouldn't buy normal goods from Iran so long as this regime remains in power. The idea of indirectly financing clubs for the Basij is just too unpalatable..

A CULTURAL DILEMMA: Iranians continue to identify with peers in the West, especially the young. Iran’s ruling class would prefer they identify with Chinese counterparts. Iranians have too many friends amng expatriates in the West. As for a Chinese youth culture to emulate, where is it Like youth everywhere, Asians look to the West, especially America, for popular cultural icons. A free and wide open society, cultural diversity and tolerant society has made the the USA is the dynamic force in youth culture.

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FG

Amazing stats from Iran today: How long can this last?

by FG on

CHECK THESE PRICES!

An EA source reports that a relative in Tehran ordered a washing
machine for 400,000 Toman (about $240) this week. When he went to the
shop the next day, he was told that --- amidst the currency crisis and
rising import costs --- the price was now 800,000 Toman (about $480).

Another EA source says that the price of an item of software for a
laptop computer has tripled from 50,000 Toman to 150,000 Toman within
days.

Leading conservative MP Habiballah Asgaroladi has claimed that inflation in December was 40% because of the currency crisis. He said that President Ahmadinejad's subsidy cuts project has failed.

(FG's Calculation Exercise: At the rate quoted by Asgsaroladi, a car priced at $20,000 on December 1st would cost $28,000 by January Ist.  So how much would it cost in a year if the rises continued at the same rate?  The washing machine went up 100% in one day.  How much would it go up in a year if the pattern continued?

REDUCED OUTPUT & LOST JOBS

a deputy in the Ministry of Industry has said that 890 production units have reduced output, with 4108 people losing jobs because of subsidy cuts.

WILL YOU ACCEPT A CHECK ANYONE?

 Aftab reports that due bank payments, affecting 34 million people, rose by 17% from March to October 2011. The total of the payments is now 33 trillion Toman (about $20 billion).

The website adds that 1 out of 8 cheques are now "bad".

OIL STORAGE PROBLEMS

Broker ICAP Shipping says the volume of Iranian crude oil stored at sea has risen to as much as 8 million barrels.

Analysts believe this is likely to rise further. "A large part of its
exports will be dislocated from Europe, and they will have to find new
buyers or be replaced by other buyers," said Samuel Ciszuk, a consultant
at KBC Energy Economics. "In any of those cases, Iran in sales price
negotiations will have a very limited set of cards in its hands, and
it's a very plausible assumption that we will see an increase in
floating storage."

 

NON-ECONOMIC MATTERS OF INTEREST

 

FORMER IRCG GENERAL:  "KHAMENEI IS WORST THAN THE SHAH"

 Green Voice of Freedom offers an English summary of the article
by the former head of the Revolutionary Guards' Navy, Hossein Alaei,
which appears to offer a warning by comparing the Supreme Leader to the Shah, a piece so sensitive that mentions of it have been deleted by sites like Khabar Online

(FG asks: So how long will it take until he winds up under arrest?)

For the "Green" article see:

 //en.irangreenvoice.com/article/2012/jan/10/3451

SEATED PRINCIPALISTS BARRED FROM ELECTIONS

  Elections Watch. Radio Zamaneh offers an overview of the MPs who have been blocked from running
in Parliamentary elections in March. It notes that nine of them --- Ali
Motahari, Hamidreza Katouzian, Alireza Mahjoub, Ali Abbaspour Tehrani,
Fatemeh Ajorloo, Abbasali Noura, Peymon Forouzesh, Ghodratollah Alikhani
and Dariush Ghanbari --- "have all been involved in strong criticism of
the administration over the past year
".

The Deputy Speaker of Parliament, Mohammadreza Bahonar, said
disqualifying government critics among the Principlists from running for
office is “narrow-minded". However, Tehran Governor Morteza Tamaddon
insisted that the disqualifications were carried out according to the
law and in the “interests of the sacred Islamic Republic system".

(FG asks: Did they get the intended message?   Will the regime's base of support shrink futher as these guys are alienated.   Are only ultra-principalists acceptable now?)

SO MUCH FOR THE REFORMISTS

 Khabar Online reports that the applications of most people claiming to be "reformists" have been vetted
for the Parliamentary elections in March, but it lists only a few ---
such as Mohammad Reza Tabesh and Mohammad Reza Khabbaz --- who have been
approved.


cvaughan59

Americans, consumers and otherwise

by cvaughan59 on

J. C. Vaughan

I can personally testify to what you are saying (BacheShirazi).  I began to seriously care about Iran after I stumbled upon websites detailing the cases of Ayaz Marhoni, Mahmoud Asgari and Makwan Moloudzadeh (after I had fasted for Ramazan).  I continued to check and the more I saw about brutal crimes against the Iranian people the more upset I became.  The hardest thing was to explain to Americans why I was so upset, almost insane from grief and rage.  Everyone seemed to think that the Iranian people all perfectly fine and were delighted with their government and had no problems at all.  People looked at me as if I were insane when I tried to explain what I had read, how innocent girls, in Evin prison and elsewhere, were raped so that they would go to hell (not go straight to paradise) and were then either murdered or turned loose to kill themselves in despair.  I only later learned about the thousands killed in 1988, and I would never try to explain to them the Mullahs persecution of the "hamjensgara-ha" for "lavaat", which from what I read all of them had done in their religious school, and which they authorized their prison guards to do against both boys and girls in their hateful prisons.


Veiled Prophet of Khorasan

People

by Veiled Prophet of Khorasan on

 

You got this person who refuses to say "Persian Gulf". You are surprised he is biased? Obviously the person is biased. I never read his blogs. Just responding to BacheShirazi.  My friend please don't waste your time here.


BacheShirazi

FG

by BacheShirazi on

 You don't even respond to the central thesis or any major points.  The
nature of your post suggests a regime supporter.  Like Reza/Manouchehr
at Enduring America you guys are trained to respond to any regime
criticism via the old "best defense is a good offense" diversion. 
Usually it relies on bad analogies and the fallacy of degree (black and
white fallacy).  

 

 

I don't support the regime, but your blogs are extremly one sided and anyone who doesn't see it is an idiot.I have posted this on your other blogs and have not recieved a response. Go check my comment on your "Is iran behind Iraq's crisis?" blog. I have stated this before. You act like Iran is the only bad guy in the situation. You act like all the other countries are innocent. You need to understand that almost everyone in this situation is a bad guy. The U.S, Iran and Saudi Arabia and others. If you are going to throw around labels of me being a regime supporter then I may as well say that you work for Fox news. Because it's very possible that you do by looking at some of the stuff you right. 

As for the points you do make, Americans are as lazy as anyone else (no
more, no less) when it comes to reading up on foreign affairs, ballet
and so on.  They don't even know about child labor.  Why are they always
expected to be less lazy? Countries where folks follow foreign affairs
intensely tend to be those where folks are directly impacted by events
and their interest focuses on events that most impact them.  How many
Iranians play Brad Pitt or Angelina Jolie?  How many Austrians or
Italians do so?

 

I don't expect anything of them. Let me remind you of what you wrote down. 

 

" COMPARISON BY FOREIGN INVESTMENT: China attracts investment in droves.
Sanctions and corruption have discouraged deter investment in Iran,
where the oil industry will the only area of interest at present.
Sanctions or no sanctions, people in the West will boycott any company
that invests in the thugs.
"

Why do you expect them to be less lazy, FG? Why do you hold Americans to such high standards? I was just correcting you. 

 

The rest of your post is just nonsense that I'm not sure why you even wrote.  You should really apply it to yourself if anything, seeing as you are the one who holds Americans to such a high standard. Afterall, you do think that sanctions or no sanctions they will boycott Iranian companies. 

 


FG

BacheShirazi: So what's your point?

by FG on

You don't even respond to the central thesis or any major points.  The nature of your post suggests a regime supporter.  Like Reza/Manouchehr at Enduring America you guys are trained to respond to any regime criticism via the old "best defense is a good offense" diversion.  Usually it relies on bad analogies and the fallacy of degree (black and white fallacy).  

As for the points you do make, Americans are as lazy as anyone else (no more, no less) when it comes to reading up on foreign affairs, ballet and so on.  They don't even know about child labor.  Why are they always expected to be less lazy? Countries where folks follow foreign affairs intensely tend to be those where folks are directly impacted by events and their interest focuses on events that most impact them.  How many Iranians play Brad Pitt or Angelina Jolie?  How many Austrians or Italians do so?

Like most people elsewhere Americans just want to be entertained, raise their families, pay their bills, get on with their lives, etc.   For example, who watches informative documentaries?  I've always thought many Tea Party types who barely have a pot to piss in might change their views if they saw a few.  

You remind me of Europeans who complain that Americans are weak on foreign languages which is indisputable.  However, lacking access to most tongues (except Spanish in the southwest) makes it harder to learn. 

What shocked me when I travelled in Europe is how few people bother to learn any language other than their own.  What excuse do they have given their far greater opportunitiers for total immersion.  They can practive more than a dozen different languages with just a weekend train trip.  If I were in their shoes, I'd learn a slew of languages.

Residents of small countries are often fluent in English.  I once asked why that is and got an honest reply: "So whose going to learn Swedish?

In Italy I once asked an Italian waiter if he had a menu in English.  Four young Germans seated nearby, living up to stereotypes, said, "These Americans expect everyone to speak English."  Turning the tables, I responded loudly: "Et pourquoit les Allemands veut que tout le monde parle Nazi."


Roozbeh_Gilani

A subtle difference between Tianeman and Tehran

by Roozbeh_Gilani on

What happened in Tianeman square was followed by a period of steady "economic growth" in China. What happened in tehran in the summer of 2009 was followed by the sustained and steady collapse of economy, increase in joblessness, and poverty. the situation in iran today is very different from 2009. People instead of asking "where is my vote", are asking where is my job and bread? Regime will be facing very different kind of crowds in the streets of Tehran during the next uprising, not so peaceful kind of crowd. All that is needed now is a spark, a tiny, little spark......

"Personal business must yield to collective interest."


BacheShirazi

Americans consumers

by BacheShirazi on

Western consumers wouldn't buy normal goods from Iran so long as this
regime remains in power. The idea of indirectly financing clubs for the
Basij is just too unpalatable..

 

So they are perfectly fine with buying clothes made by some poor kid
working in a sweat shop for barely enough to live off of. They are perfectly fine with buying oil from companies that are destroying their environments. But for some reason they
wouldn't buy stuff that originates from Iran because it finances Basij?
Give me a break, the vast majority of Americans don't care about Iran anymore than they care about the chinese kid working for practicly nothing.
And I'm not saying they should care about Iran, just pointing it out. 


FG

A Second Look at a Bad Assumption

by FG on

Historically, there is such a thing as an idea whose time has come.  China itself may soon face its own Arab Spring as a middle class develops, education expands and the internet spreads. 

In a nutshell, the Islamic Republic is worse off in every single catergory I listed
originally. Unforeseeable foreign developments have further compounded every difficulty.  I see no way out of a trap the regime designed for itself.

How many nightmarishish problems would Khamenei eliminate if he could turn back to clock to the 2009 Election and throw full support major democratic reforms?  Does he have any prospect of seducing back those whose allegiance it
has forfeited?  Can he befriend neighbors and sooth the West in light of all that has happened?  Lacking a time machine, Khamenei persists in mindlessly alienating everyone further, especially his own people. And if he owned one, would he have the foresight to reverse course?

Once the crackdown began, everyone except the mullahs predicted one consequence--an embarassingly low turnout in the Majis election of 2012.  What no one foresaw is the split between Ahmadinejad's faction and the mullah-security force alliance and how it would multiply the electoral consequences stemming from 2009.

Foreign affairs was beyond the scope of my original post but I need to point out that unfavorable economic and political developments externally greatly reduce the regime's ability to withstand internal dissent.  Most unfavorable  developments abroad occurred only after Khamenei deliberately chose to
alienate Iranians rather than allow badly needed reforms.  No one is in the mood to rally around this regime. They might have otherwise.

Almost every external development--except possibly Iraq today--has worked against the regime:

--The regime's isolation from neighbors as a result of its own imperial ambitions and covert schemes.

--The unforeseen level of sanctions aggravates domestic economic problems especially the currency crisis whose original lies in internal corruption.

--The rise of democratic Islamist parties and the admiration for Erdogan's accomplishments in Turkey in stark contrast to the IRI.

--The Arab Spring and its repercussions.  It's real inspiration was Iran's 2009 protests and Erdogan's model.  Neither the victories by Erdogan-influenced Islamists or by Salafists is good news for Iran's mullahs, contrary to regime propaganda.

--Assad's downfall, now inevitable, will be a devastating blow to the regime's external schemes. 

--The defection of Hamas in Gaza adds further humiliation.

--Prior to 2009, the mullahs actually seem to have actually believed their own rhetoric model about how the muslim world wanted to emulate the Islamic Republic.  I doubt they believe it now.  What's to emulate in a total failure?


FG

Far more people despise the regime now than in 2009

by FG on

(Note: Bear in mind that some of these groups overlap where a person has more than one grievance.  In a one-way process, the thing to keep your eyes on are new recruits.  It's almost impossible to imagine anyone who was critical of the regime in 2009 having become fond of it subsequently)

1. START YOUR COUNT WITH THE ORIGINAL GREENS--Well over 20 million voted for the Greens.  All events since merely reinforce their perceptions that the election was rigged.  Why would even one vote now?  I'd estimate that 90% of those who voted "green" in 2009 now totally reject the idea of democratic reform as an impossibility.  Their revised outlook is, "A totally dis discredit
regime must go."

2. ADD MILLIONS OF "NEW RECRUITS" REPELLED BY THE SUBSEQUENT CRACKDOWN.  Intimidation
requires ghastly, visible crimes in substantial numbers to make its
point: "This is what I will do to you, your wife and your children if you criticize my rule!"  
Unless that "message" reaches the whole population, can intimidation
occur?  Even so, the regime denies its crimes even as it continues to
commits them openly.   Some blame schizophrenia for this.  I would argue
that such contradictory policies stem from the two-sided nature of
intimidation when used as a tool to "control" popular opinion.  

Intimidation is a "buy now, pay later" propositon.  It can succeed in
temporarily quelling a crisis by relying on indiscriminate
fist-in-the-mouth treatments.  The downside is not only that it
radicalize all the previously alienated instead of winning them over
while adding millions to their ranks from sheer revulsion. These
"recruits" always include kin, neighbors and acquaintances of anyone
clubbed, tortured, jailed or shot, and members of security forces
unhappy at being ordered to commit such crimes.  Also include
non-political or pro-regime
bystanders caught in the wrong place who tasted or watched the regime's
scandalous behavior first hand. 

"Social Recruits."  Millions resent social police harassment which
has increased since 2009 along with all totalitarian trends.  Iranians
will not tolerate being forced to live like Salafists.   Even people who
could care
less about democracy so long as they can have their fun must come to
despise any
system that steals everyone's satellite dishes and cell phones
(cynically selling new replacements afterwards) and that "cracks down"
on actors, writers, movies, music, books, newspapers, television, social
networks and the internet to deprive Iranians of "western" cultural
influences people have come to enjoy.  

3. FINALLY INCLUDE OTHER MILLIONS WHOSE ALIENATION IS PRIMARILY
ECONOMIC
: In both numbers and velocity this is the fastest growing
element in the opposition and potentially the most explosive.  The
swindled finally see that the regime's economy is just as rigged and
corrupt as its elections and
their company unions.  They watch as Khamenei sells them out.  Instead
of fixing what stinks,he hands over most of the economy to the men with
the guns and clubs.  It is a "superbribe." In exchang the hated mullahs
get protection from an enraged populace  These clerics will not stop at
any crime to preserve ill-gained and undeserved privileges, perks and
powers. 

CONCLUSION: Every repressive step the regime takes adds to its enemies while "confessing" that it has lost the allegiance of most Iranians beyond recall.  Meanwhile, the present situation is increasingly unsustainable.