The regime may be planning Karoubbi's assassination


by FG

(Whether or not anyone there reads this, I sent a copy of the following in the "letters" section at the Supreme Leader's website--not the first time I've done so with analysis or news items.   I point this out so you'll understand why my post begins as it does).

Updates for the Supreme Leader: You may hate the opposition how your own actions assure its continued growth. 


According to the rumor, other top leaders may be targeted as well.  The opposition would be blamed even if that makes no sense.   People find such a rumor believable for five reasons:

1. Known regime tactic: Regime death squads have assassinated reformers in the past.
2. Another familiar tactic: The regime tried to blame Neda's death on the opposition and declare her a "regime martyr."
3. On November 4th Karoubbi was publicly assaulted for the third time--a clear pattern.  This time he was actually shot at and knocked to the ground.  Two bodyguards were wounded. 
4. The regime spread an advance cover story claiming that its "intelligence service" discovered an opposition plot to kill an opposition leader and "frame" the regime.

5. Having seen so much crimes (need I elaborate?) people believe it will commit any crime at this point to hold onto power.

As observers have noted, what makes the opposition so hard to repress is that it is a grass roots movement in which Karroubi and Moussawi especially have become followers rather than leaders.   In the first week after the rigged election, most of the opposition might have been satisfied with new elections provided bullet proof safeguards against frauds were included.  A public radicalized by the regime's actions since will no longer settle for that.    



Both come sources inside Iran.  The first is from "Mr. Smith" a regular source for Scott Lucas at Enduring America.  The second appears in the "Comments" section afterward from "whereismyvote." 

If the regime should find and arrest either source, it will accomplish nothing.  Dozens of others will replace them.
Since independent professional journalists and newspapers were shut down, the people by the hundreds have developed journalist skills.  Once learned, those skills will remain to expose the regime's moral bankrupcy.

--NEDA: Childhood photos now online for Iran's public to see.


Already Neda's photo and her mother's story have spread widely in Iran.  Their impact will increase with an upcoming one-hour documentary on PBS Frontline on November 17th.  Everyone wants to see it--not just the opposition. Anyone who can't watch it directly will have access by one means or another shortly thereafter. 

People thirst for all details  about Neda.  Why? Because Neda now emboies so many things--other victims, the opposition and the entire Iranian people.   As hero's to emulate, how can men like Khamenei, Ahmadinejad, Mpjtaba. Janatti, Taeb, Mesbah Yadzi and Ahmad Khatemi compete with people  like Neda and Karoubbi?   It's hopeless.  

As if the regime didn't look bad enough already, it gave Basilj thugs the freeest hand ever on Nov. 4th.  Now the Iranian people get to enjoy photos of beaten demonstrators, including women getting clubbed as they rushed to interpose their own bodies between those of beaten demonstrators laying on the ground.   The bravery of such people is amazing.  



re: those arrests

Such arrests are as futile as censorship and beatings.   The regime is so lacking in legitimacy it simply repeats the same old strategies that got it in this hole.

--Hardline websites hacked

The best and the brightest--along with their technological skills--are imcreasingly on the side of the opposition.  The greater the repression, the more people are forced to learn such skills.  Meanwhile there are so-many low tech ways of doing the same--graffiti, rooftop chants, circulating DVDs--all impossible to stop.


The hole continues to get bigger despite all censorship, intimidation and violence.  Such things just undermine Khamenei further because people use their common sense to reach a logical conclusion--a genuinely popular, respected and legitimate government would have no need to engage in such measures.   Doing so amounts to a public confession of wrongdoing something to hide.  Anyone can see that this is a regime that fears its own people and knows it has good reasons for such fears.  Meanwhile consider how much Khamenei's smaller crimes--seizing peoples cell phones, computers and satellite--increase popular resentment as much as the big ones.   None of these crimes--big or small--could happen without his endorsement and advance approval.


more from FG


by Shepesh on


Ali Akbar

FG you're on target

by Ali Akbar on

Keep up the good work...


NASSER SHIRAKBARI   I agree and also might add that more sanctions will force the international community to make a stand that any further support for the IRI will only be ENABLING the Corrupt IRI....  




Majority of Iranians are Anit-Sanctions because they do not want further harship on the people at large.  On the other hand, with great pain, I have always thought sanctions is the price to pay for quicker regime change.  More will come to this conclusion in time as the knife penetrates deepr and deeper.


Great analogy: July 4th in USA and November 4th in Iran

by FG on

Another analysis at Enduring America looks at Khamenei's additional loss of status after November 4th:

The undoubted achievement of the Green Movement is now the denial of the regime’s mobilisation of pro-regime collective memory. Imagine if the American authorities overnight had to view the 4th of July with a sense of dread. As such, Khamenei’s position as custodian of the revolution is now ridiculous.

For me, the next critical date is Ashua (about 28 December). If the opposition is able to mobilise Shia collective identity, as Imam Khomeini did, then the regime’s problems are huge. This is also where the senior clerics can really play a part — perhaps Rafsanjani’s behind-the-scenes moves are anticipating this?

Mr Smith replies (after an analysis of his own):

You are absolutely right...Yesterday’s events were really the end of the Supreme Leader’s prestige, if he had any left.

Source: Enduring America


Sanctions and a declining economy: Yes or No?

by FG on

As the analyses I cited above notes, a declining economy is likely to vastly increase the opposition's numbers sometime in the future.   When that happens, many people who are tacitly anti-regime or are mildly pro-regime at present will wind up joining the opposition.   In such circumstances, erosion of public support can deepen rapidly, a la the USA in Iraq or in Vietnam after the Tet Offensive of 1968.   

That brings up the controversy over sanctions: Yes or No?  Is it time to reconsider our positions?  

From what I've read here and on other sites, it appears Iranians who who opposed sanctions are in the majority.  Based on such arguments, I've leaned against anti-sanctions.  Yet after reading those analyses I'm wondering whether--even while some of the arguments against it prove correct, are sanctions worthwhile IF they bring about the downfall of this intolerable regime much faster.

Let's consider the main arguments against sanctions in light of the analysis:

ARGUMENT #1: It would enrich the Revolutionary Guards further.

True but.. won't the IRCG enrich itself ANYWAY so long as this regime exists.  Consider that it's hardly the same thing as arguing the regime itself is strengthened by sanctions.  I suspect that new levels of self-enrichment by the regime's incrowd precisely when the economy is self-destructing, would increase resentment drastically on top of anger over the economy.    

The real questions I must ask are: First, how much time the Guard will have to enrich itself?  Secondly, if sanctions substantially reduce the regime's life expectancy, won't many IRCG types ship billions in currency out of the country fearing all will be lost otherwise? If so the currency is likely to collapse.  How can a country function without a viable currency  

ARGUMENT#2: Sanctions will add to the economic hardships of people already close to the edge. 

TRUE BUT: That will happen anyway so long as this regime continues.  The main difference is that widespread suffering, bad enough already, will increase gradually, prolonging the agony. One way or the other, the Iranian economy seems headed for collapse, especially since the regime created irreparable chaos with its rigged election and subsequent brutality.   Things will never be the same.

So the choice may come down to A) reach the same level of suffering but only over a longer period of time or B) Get it over with.  Who can disagree that people can't begin to have hope again until this regime is gone and a new government can take practical steps toward a rational economy, integration with the world economy and and a total end to sanctions?   For those affected by regime crimes as well as the regime's economic incompetence and thievery, the price of delay is much greater.   How long especially will Iran's young people have to wait to have any prospects in life?  Months?  Years?

ARGUMENT #3:  The regime would find a way around it be smuggling and by developing refining capacity.

Won't the smuggling increase resentment against the regime by all classes?   As for increased refining capacity it takes time the regime might not have if conditions get bad rapidlly enough.   Sanctions will deter the necessary investment required by an already strapped regime.   Sanctions or no sanctions the regime is trying to do improve refining capacity anyway.   So why not act while it is still vulnerable and a Tet-like blow can bring the house of cards down?

ARGUMENT #4: The regime will be strenghthen because it will be able to blame foreigners for the mass suffering.

The regime may try but will it work, especially with the in-crowd fattening itself up at the same time.  That's like blaming foreigners or the Iranian people for the regime's current chaos.  The opposition can counter by noting the obvious: "Whose behavior led to the sanctions?"


Even without additional sanctions the entire population except for the regime's elite must continue to suffer from this regime's economic incompetence. Those actively involved in opposition at present will continue to suffer additional physical, social and intellectual hardships until the day this regime falls.  How many more will be beaten, raped, tortured or murdered in the meantime. 

When the day comes that economic pressures drive others into the street out of desperation, everyone outside the in-crowd too will experience what the opposition has experienced at the regime's hands.   That includes many parents who encouraged their children to join the Basilj.

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