FG

FG, you don't have an option for victory of people

Dear FG, it looks like people of Iran are not in your equation.  All your options talk about what regime will do.  There are 70 million Iranians and they can do wonders.  Maybe I am misreading your blog but I just don't see a scenario that people's movement actually defeats IRI.  Why haven't you covered that?

For years the Islamic

For years the Islamic establishment has raised the hopes of people for change and then shatters them to reinforce apathy, fear, and ultimately utter hopelessness.Einstein defined insanity as doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results. Why do Iranians insist on believing that salvation can only come through this regime?

I disagree

i dont see how such a protest would hurt the regime. the regime would try to stop any organized boycott of the vote

circumstances can change drastically between now and 2013. the election code could be reformed, and elections might be more fair four years from now

if there is high voter turnout in the next election, and massive fraud is suspected, the hardliners will be weakened even more

but, as you mentioned, the hardliners might do away with elections before then or the council might not allow reformist candidates, like when it disqualified many reformists in '04

Hi, Maziar. An important point I missed

Doesn't it make sense to start contingency planning now just in case?  Besides I believe there are separate parliamentary elections much sooner.   As usual the Guardian Council will ban most reformers and qualify only ultraconservatives as usual.  Why not use the election tactic then

In a state of panic, Khamenei and his fellw extremists aren't thinking  past a week or so.  Assuming the regime lasts another four years, the ruling tyrant (Mojtaba perhaps by then) assumes the regime can offer a few last-minute reforms as "voter bait" then snatch them away after elections.

The time it won't work.  The mass of people have come to know only too well how the Supreme Thug operates. 

Four-year scenario in answer to your question

Given the monopoly of weapons the regime enjoys, I see several possible scenarios

1. The tug of war goes on four years with more and more people becoming alienated.

2. The hard liners drop the whole idea of elections andstop pretending a republic exists anymore.

3. The regime manages to co-opt some--but not all opponents in a compromise with miniscule reforms and punishment of minor thugs.

In the first scenario, a large majority won't votre.  In scenario #3, the situation will be only slightly "better" for the regime. Co-opted reformers will urge people to vote but with limited effect.   This regime has lost too much trust.

I see one other option, though highly improbable.   The regime could do now what would have worked on election day.  That is, hold new or runoff elections, vastly restricting the powers of the Guardian Council and totally eliminating any role by the Ministry of the Interio, the Basilj or the Guard in such elections.  It would require safeguards, an immediate count at local poll sites and secure transport of ballots afterwards.

To convince people to vote NOW would require far more--an end of censorship (electronic and otherwise), the release of political prisoners who must be allowed to testify openly and on TV regarding their treatment, massive judicial reform, real investigations by trustable parties into mass graves and rapes, punishment of those responsible and a requirement that no interrogators can wear masks or disguises and lawyers must be present during questioning.  Wardens would be held accountable for enforcement. 

Without these reforms, the regime will continue the same abuses and no one is safe.

FG

Just curious ; Are you promotting the existence of IR for another  4years ?

Maziar

بنظر شما

بنظر شما کدامیک از جنایاتی که در این دو سه ماهه اخیر رخ داده هولناکتر و تاسف‌بارتر بود؟
مرگ ندا و آن آخرین نگاهش؟
به خون غلتیدن جوانان بی گناه بر روی آسفالت گرم خیابان؟
ضرب و شتم زنان باردار و مردان سالخورده با باتون و زنجیر و میلگرد؟
ریختن مغول‌وار به منازل مردم و تخریب اموال آنها؟
بازداشتهای فله‌ای افراد و بی‌خبر گذاشتن خانواده‌های آنان از وضعیت عزیزانشان؟
بدرفتاری با زندانیان و شکنجه و حبس انفرادی آنان؟
تجاوز وحشیانه به دختران و پسران؟ و سوزاندن جسد آنان؟
برپایی بی‌دادگاههای مضحک و اعترافات ساختگی زندانیان؟
دروغگویی و شانتاژ تبلیغاتی در صدا و سیما و کیهان و حق را باطل جلوه دادن و سرپوش نهادن بر واقعیت‌ها؟

نه! بنظر من همه اینها «جنایت» بود ولی اتفاق تازه‌ای نبود. سی سال است که در این نظام اینگونه جرم و جنایات به کرات اتفاق افتاده و شاید بدتر از اینها هم بوده که شما گاه و بیگاه چیزهایی خوانده و یا شنیده‌اید.
اما هیچکدام از این جنایات به اندازه خود عمل تقلب در انتخابات دردناکتر و تاسف بارتر نبود. شما عمق فاجعه را در انتخاب شدن یا نشدن موسوی و کروبی و یا احمدی‌نژاد نبینید. مهم این بود که این بی‌پدرها یک ملت بزرگ را تحقیر کردند

.
مردم با ذوق و شوق فراوان به پای صندوقها رفتند و این ناجوانمردها در روز روشن به ریش مردم خندیدند و به کاندیداها بصورت سهمیه‌ای رای‌ها را اختصاص دادند. سهمیه آقای کروبی در کل کشور فقط سیصدهزار تا! آنوقت رهبر احمق و بی‌شعورشان آمد و در نماز جمعه با کمال وقاحت گفت چون اختلاف آرا زیاد است پس احتمال تقلب نیست!
خب! مردک! این اختلاف ساختگی آرا کار خودت و اون باند تبهکارت بوده و نه کار مردم.

این معنی‌اش فقط یک تقلب معمولی نبود. تمسخر مردم بود. تمسخر انتخابات و رای مردم. تمسخر دمکراسی و تحقیر جمهوریت.//mollah.blogspot.com/