A majority of the Iranian people finally grasps that so long the Islamic Republic exists, the only prospect for most living Iranians are bleak poverty, backwardness, misery, isolation and brutality until they die. The same goes for their children and children's children. The only logical conclusion is this: The Islamic Republic must go. The alternative is unthinkable.
WILL THERE BE BLOOD?
The bad news is that freedom won't come cheap. Many unarmed Iranians will have to die first. The "Dude In A Superturban" would kill a million Iranians to hold on to power and stolen wealth (over $27 billion). The good news is that his troops will sicken of such things after killing a few hundred or a few thousand ([probably under 10,000). Then they will shoot any officer who gives such orders and any plainclothesman caught in similar thuggery.
Khamenei's Islamic "Republic" borrowed its police state and disinformation tactics from Hitler and Stalin. The regime's misfortune is that crimes similar to Hitler's and Stalin's cannot be so easily concealed nowadays. You would have to ban computers, the internet, cell phones, TVs, DVDs, satellites, foreign travel and foreign visitors. You can't do that and run a modern economy which is essential to a modern military.
A willingness to commit awful crimes rests on the mistaken assumption that such crimes can be concealed. For authoritarian regimes old-style censorship is as effective as the legendary Dutch boy who tried to prevent a dam from bursting by putting his fingerts in spreading cracks. These petty dictators never learn from the mistakers of others which explains why Khamenei's reputation has plummed so deeply since he rigged the election. The man has exposed himself for all to see. He never expected that.
PERMANENTLY DISCREDITED: WHERE KHAMENEI'S REPUTATION IS PLUMMETING FASTER THAN ANYWHERE
Previously Khamenei had cut Iran off from much of the modern world, costing his people greatly but still had a substantial number of admirers in the Middle East. Now his reputation is plummeting faster there than anywhere. In spite of his delusions to the contrary, the oppressed of Egypt, Tunisia and other nearby lands can hardly idenfity with the wielders of clubs, tear gas, rifles, rigged courts and torture chamber prisons. Naturally they identify with the brutalized in Iran, not their tormentors. Even Islamist factions in Tunisia and Egypt have denounced the Islamic Republic as a role model. They much prefer Erdogan's example in Turkey (civil liberties, real elections and courts, economic progress despite having no oil)? Would you pick that over what Khanmenei offers--rigged elections, rigged justice, rigged economies and "a boot in your face forever" to borrow George Orwell's definition of totalitarianism?
When the regime falls and Khamenei seeks refuge who will take him in. Only Lebanon among muslim countries. Elsewhere the only "possibles" are Venezuela, Zimbabwe and Venezuela. I wonder why?
MOUSAVI, KAROUBBI AND AN ONLINE ANALYSIS"
"Faced with the heavy-handed response by the authorities, the question that lies ahead for the both Mousavi and Karroubi is pressing: Should they finally give up all pretence of compromise and resolution of conflict within the boundaries of the Islamic Republic and their reluctance to engage in a full-frontal confrontation with all elements of the regime, Khamenei included? Should they start to question the authority and wisdom of the Supreme Leader directly, as strongly requested by the protestors in the streets, or should they keep pressing with strategies which have been unsuccessful so far?" (Quoted from Scott Lucas' Enduring America on Feb. 17, 2011).
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