FG

1. THE BANKNOTE WAR:  The regime has already conceded defeat  See my earlier post blog on that.

2. THE GRAFFITI WAR:  Opposition is well ahead.  Regime once again looks impotent.  New graffiti appears as fast as the regime can paint it over.  If the opposition really wants to cause some hovoc it should consider writing not just on walls but on pavements, rocks and streets.   The latter can be especially disruptive as painting crews attempt frantically to hide evidence of the regime’s popularity.

3.. THE CENSORSHIP & PROPAGANDA WAR: The opposition has a virtual monopoly on credibility while the regime has become a public laughingstock.

Consider the substantial blows Khamenei’s regime suffered in the last ten days alone in the form of crimes it was not able to cover up: three Neda fiascos (a dramatic PBS video, the descrecration of her grave, the interview with her fiance), an executed Kurd martyr and a doctor/witness to prison atrocities murdered in police custody.  Repercussions of the latter two have barely begun.  Stay tuned.   People are already predicting the regime will try to blame someone else as usual.   The sole effect is to provide more evidence of how low the Khamenei regime can go.

4. THE WAR OVER SOCCER AND OTHER SPORTING EVENTS: Stadiums are full of green and anti-regime chants.  When regime attempts to counter, fans stage an unpredicted boycott that leaves an empty stadium.
 
5. WAR OVER THE ARTS.  Who even reads or listens to the regime’s crap?   

6.  EFFORTS AT DECAPITATING THE OPPOSIITION.  Arresting perceived leading protestors or strategists fail endlessly because this is a popular movement driven from the bottom and motivated precisely by such outrages.   
 
7. THE UNIVERSITY WARS: Everything the regime does to control the universities has failed.  The student revolt continues to undermine the regime in three ways: A. It demoralizes pro-regime figures “invited” to speak at universities.  B. The anti-regime atmosphere inevitably “corrupts”  many of the Basilj sent to the university as a tool for controlling students. C. An entire future  leadership class is being raised in an anti-regime youth culture that is becoming all pervasive.

In the first video below imagine you were the pro-regime speaker or a Basilj onlooker, once so loyal, but exposed to this sort of culture.   In the other videos you can see how rhe regime’s boneheaded execution of a young Kurd poster has backfired.  As usual, the intent was to intimidate the effect was to enrage.

//enduringamerica.com/2009/11/17/latest-iran-...

8. THE STREET DEMONSTRATIONS: The regime entered this area of conflict with a stacked deck in its favor.  Superficially the regime appears to be winning here but only if you rely on comparing head counts of protestors.  Both sides know that June’s three million demonstrators would triple if Khamenei ordered its thugs to stay home next time.  

What amazes is that hundreds of thousands show up after all the regime‘s crimes and despite the danger.  While their courage wins over the public, the regime’s thuggery alienates everyone and provides fodder for You Tube videos with an endless shelf life and lots of visitors.   People watch, fascinated, as Khamenei’s thugs pound on women and old men.  I suspect repeated assignments of this sort demoralizes the Basilj on whom the regime can depend….for now.  Do they snap at wives, girl friends and family when they get home?   Surely they find themselves as social pariahs.   Among young folk, admitting you are a Basilj is like admitting your are a child molestor.

You can’t beat the blog belong from a pro-regime writer to understanding the alienating effect the regime’s brutality is having on such people:

//homylafayette.blogspot.com/2009/11/in-their...