Khatemi will admit rigged election at press conference & install Mousavi as president


by FG

At an upcoming press conference Khamenei will admit the election was rigged, declare Mousavi the legitimate winner and personally apologize for encouaging so much brutality over two decades. He will also vow not to sabotage the reforms this time. After the initial euphoria, how long would a Mousavi honeymoon last?

If Khamenei were a bit less dense, he might grasp now what he refused to see on June 12th: Not only was Mousavi not a threat to the regime but he also represented its best hope for its survival. Amazingly, Mousavi still believes the Islamic Republic can be salvaged even as the bulk of Iranians now believe the opposite.


Gorbachev couldn't save the Soviet Union than while Mousavi cannot save the Islamic Republic now. The public mood has changed too much over the last five months. "Save the Islamic Republic" schemes recall short-lived "unity" governments set up by reformers to save communism in in East Germany, Czechoslavakia and the Soviet Union in the late 80's. Any ideological system that delays substantial reform for too long, relies on brute force and repeatedly demonstrates economic favoritism and incompetence reaches a point of no return. Like Humpty-Dumpty, the cracked egg of a fairy tale rhyme, can such systems be restored to stability past a certain point.


A husband or wife gets caught in one affair and apologizes. It happens again a few years later. The injured spouse threatens divorce and gets this instead: "Honey, I won't do it again. This time I really promise." Except for the apologies that's classic Khamenei behavior. When Khatami's reforms gave brief hope of better, El Supremo simply eviscerated them. When the disillusioned once allowed themselves to hope for change, they got pie in the face on June 12th. People learned an indelible lesson from all this--that the Islamic Republic will never be more than a puppet show in which real power is held by a small clique of hardliners hiding behind the curtains and immune to popular veto.


For the average Iranian there is no prospect whatsoever that life can get anything but worse until it is gone. As more people grasp that, desperation increases. Unlike the average slob Khamenei's party elite should be immune to suffering of that sort until the regime's terminal stages.

Regimes like this, whether communist, fascist or Islamist, rely on two groups to function--a small core of hard-core believers can be relied on to stick things out until the end and a larger group of opportunists). The latter consists of ideological non-believers who mouth the right words but can switch ideologies at the drop of a hat if they can profit from doing so. Opportunists like this are essential to a regime since they can be depended on to wield club, gun. pen or blowtorch--at least so long as regime prospects are sunny.

Iran has not yet reached the dire straits Germany faced in the spring of 1945 but it's on the way a la Nazi Germany after Stalingrad. You;ll know the end is near when you see rat tracks in the dust. Realists know a sinking ship when they see one. They stock up on false
identify cards. They exchange the local currency for gold, diamonds and foreign currency while there is still time. As a regime's prospects grow bleaker, export of wealth abroad increases. Meanwhile they draw up escape routes for any contingency.

When you see the rial heading toward total collapse, you'll know the regime's end is near. It's another sign of panic. The wealthiest and most informed are dumping their rials for any alternative. The more rials they dump, the faster rials become worthless. Once again, it's the average person who is likely to be caught short with worthless money.

I wrote elsewhere that sanctions might well accelerate this collapse. I reasoned that though sanctions would indeed hurt the average Iranian in the short run, they'd likely wind up just as bad off economically over a longer period otherwise. In the meanwhile some accumulate plenty of bumps, bruises, broken bones, solitary confinement and torn genitalia. Iranians have to decide what is worse--taking painful medicine now (sanctions) and getting things over with or prolonging their agony for perhaps a few years yet.


more from FG

Above scenario was hypothetical. 2 key words got deleted

by FG on

Khamenei's press conference in the first paragraph was NOT intended as fact.  Please don't start celebrating yet.

The heading is exactly as I intended.  However, for some reason the first two words in the text, "Imagine this," got deleted.  You can see the difference that makes. 

Using my back arrow just now I notice those two words appear at the beginning of the text on the preview page, both on top and on bottom. How could that happen?