Khamenei's impending death will put the regime on the spot


by FG

The tiny, ultraconservative clique that rules Iran today insists that--despite endless crimes--the Islamic Republic remains popular and its dying Supreme Leader beloved.  Consider the bizarre headline on the Supreme Leader‘s homepage: “The Elections Prove How Robust the Islamic Republic is in Attracting Trust.”  That mythology will get a tough test right after Khamenei’s death when funeral decisions can't be avoided.

In theory, ruling hardliners could simply dump Khamenei’s body down a hole in a quck, secrert service limited to immediate family and surrounded by police and Basilj.  The regime has had lots of practice.  However to do that would be to openly repudiate everything the Islamic Republic has done over Khamenei‘s two decades. Thus, the Big Show must go on even if a fiasco is certain.  If several Grand Ayatollahs boycott the ceremony, as is likely, I’d expect some top politicians to do likewise. Don't expect the Khoumeini family to attend.  The public is so alienated, who will give Khamenei a happy sendoff? If anything, tens of millions will celebrate his death openly.  Afterwards, the Supreme Despot‘s tomb will need heavy security or thousands of people will likely relieve themselves on his hated grave.

In hindsight, the greatest tragedy in modern Iranian history occurred after Khamenei’s death when Grand Ayatollah Montazeri, a humane and passionate man, was shunted aside and placed under house arrest.  He was replaced by a ruthless, immoral ultraconservative.

Khamenei’s legacy is monstrous.  If people have no personal , political or judicial rights, that is exactly how the Supreme Despot wanted it.  If torturers and murderers walk free and still enjoy great power, they can thank Khamenei.  If elections are rigged, if anyone who complains is brutally silenced, if coverups abound, if only the small fish are punished, if the economy is a wreck and if wealth is monopolized by a  few, we all know who gave the green light. 

Khamenei should be remembered by the company he preferred--Ahmad Khatami, Yazdi, Jafari, Fadayi, Taeb, Janati, Mortazawi and his Caligula-like son, Mojtaba.  There is no question but that some of the above personally beat, tortured, murdered and raped political prisoners regardless of gender or age.  At least three identified torturers serve in the majlis today thanks to the Guardian Council.  Who appointed its extremist members?   

Finally let us all give credit to Khamenei and his reactionary pals if Iran’s young see no hope of a happy future under this regime.  Those who can will continue to emigrate.  Those who cannot will find their own escapes via drugs and parties, snickering at any passerby in a turban.  Surely the most ironic “accomplishment” of the Iranian Republic is that less than five percent of Iran’s young go to mosques these days.  Whatever sincere clerics might think, the ultraconservatives could care less.  They are too busy enjoying their money and power.



more from FG

Who will succeed Khamenei?

by FG on

Everyone imagines it would take a bloody revolution to get Iranians out from under an increasingly hated system.  What might have greater impact would be Khamenei's death and any dramatic p;ublic display afterward. 

It might be best if Khamenei lives a month or two at least.  More horrific regime crimes need to be exposed.  Maybe the regime will enbarass itself with futher arrests, show trials and easily exposed coverups. This will onlyl increase the number of disenchanted who conclude the regime is tainted, incorribible and unsalvagable.  

Meanwhile resssure from all sides had begun to force Khamenei to curb the security forces.  Otherwise they mightcbe strong enough to impose a Mojtaba or Yazdi after his death.   It's far harder for security service thugs to remove Kjamenei. If they have been sufficiently curbed prior to his death, subsequent events could swing the balace toward reformers.

When Khamenei dies, the traditionalists, the reformers and even some principalists will not want his like again.  The present chaos has caused enough damage. Since the Assembly of Leaders is unlikely to meet until after Khamenei's funeral at which debate may be prolonged.  Never will there be a better time for mass demonstrations far bigger than those right after the rigged election.

A mass public demonstration at the time of the funeral could do in the Islamic Regime by taking away any hope that it can regain popular support. If a few torturers have been tried, convicted and especially executed by that time, it may inhibit any crackdown.

Such a demonstration could take two viable forms.  Millions could join the funeral parade and begin chantings such as: "End the crimes.  We want democracy.  The Murderer Has Died. Good riddance, etc."

Or an entire people can refuse to join the funeral parade and simply stand in front of their homes or workplaces by the millions smiling and dressed for celebration.  Some may chant.  Some may bear photos of dead victims or pictures of Khamenei with an X drawn through over his face. 

The important thing is that the public make it clearly how widely the Islamic Republic is disdained in ways that can't be misinterpreted as a show of support.



Lung cancer....

by yolanda on

Lung cancer is usually a fast killer. I can't wait! Yeah!!!!

Thanks for the great article!


Mojtaba to succeed?

by Shepesh on

Some people say this alleged "coup" for Ahmadijenad to win was supported by Khamenei because of succession issues for Supreme Leader to get his son to folow him. Do you know who next Supreme Leader would be, or do you think rafsanjani is playing a waiting game supported by other senior clerics because he knows his death is imminent, so that he can put a Group as Supreme instead of one Supreme Leader? Like a structural change. It was rumour that he was going around Qom to get support for this change but as Khamenei is still alive he did not get the go ahead.