Khameini's minor "concessions" won't save the regime


by FG

When you see Iran's conservatives criticize Khamenei, it is not because they've developed a concern for the people's welfare.  Their sole interest lies in personal consequences if this ship sinks.   Unlike Khamenei, they grasp that this regime is doomed if it alienates the Iranian people any further.  However, the same conservatives underestimate obstacles when they imagine that a few trivial "concessions" can satisfy Iran's people.

This regime has gone way too far, way too often, way too recently. Public cynicism runs deep.  Only massive reforms can save the Islamic Repubic.  starting with Khamenei's departure.  That man is no more capable of substantial refom than Nicholas II of Russia.   Only a Supreme Leader like Montazeri, Karroubi or Mohammed Khatami might restore public faith at this point but it will never happen because conservatives lack the guts.   In the meantime, Khamenei bombards the populace with more facistic excesses.


A PROMISED "INVESTIGATION:" If Khamenei rigged one investigation (see the rigged elections) he will do the same again. Everrything that happes in Iran requires Khamenei's approval.  We wouldn't even see this "investigation" if the regime's thugs, granted the usual free hand, hadn't screwed up by stomping to death a young man whose dad had close ties to a former presidential candiate and head
of the Republic Guard.  His immediate killers and no one higher than warden will be tried and executed.   Higher-ups who sanctioned such crimes--starting with Khamenei himself--will go unpublished.

KHAMENEI CONCEDES "OPPOSITION LEADERS WERE NOT UNDER FOREIGN INFLUENCE": Khamenei has nothing to lose?  He couldn't risk arresting Moussavi and ohers for now with eveyone defecting.  Inn the small print note how he continues to blame foreigners for "making the people unhappy."  Obviously he can hardly accept the only alternate explanation.  Blaming foreigners also has a practical use.   How else could the regime justify censorship and crackdowns?

KHAMENEI "OUSTS" A HATED PROSECUTOR: Years ago--long before anyone could blame Ahmadinejad--Mortazawi beat a female Canadian journalist to death with his shoe.  Without Khamenei's continuing support, he would be a dead man today.  In the years since Mortazawi supervised the crackdown on a free press during the Khamenei presidency.  He issued vir tually all warrants allowing the detention of political prisoners in prisons controlled by the Basilj and Revolutionary Guards.  He personally ran show trials based on tortureinduced confessions and, according to some sources, he and Mullah Taeb, commander of the Basilj, allegedly raped and personally tortured some recent politival prisoners.  The public was elated when he got fired recently.




--.See Khamenei's proposed crackdown on Academic freedom 

--See Khamenei's promotion of Mortazawi

--See the firing of 40 diplomoats who dared criticise the regime's brutality toward the Iranian people.

--See Khamenei's recent intervention to save Ahmadinejad's new Republican Guard & Basilj cabinet.


more from FG

Add in 2 new outrages to "reformed:" Khamenei's total

by FG on

CASE OF THE DISAPPEARING RAPE VICTIM: One rape victims whose testimony Karroubi was counting on has mysteriously disappeared after a rough session with Khamenei's investiators.   The latter were led by Iran's most notorious prosecutor. At minimum, this appears a case of witness intimidation.  At worst...(the Iranian public can fill in the sentence for itself).

WITNESS TO MASS GRAVE INCIDENT LOSES HIS MEMORY:  A medical examiner has changed his testimony regarding the number of permits issued for burial in one grave.   Didn't we all expect that sort of thing?

See the news summary at Tehran Bureau for details.





Some fired diplomats refused to take photos of demonstrators

by FG on

The secret police demanded it.  They refused.

Apparently the foreign ministry is in chaos because of the purges.  
Ahmadinejad is doing to the foreign ministry what he did to the
intelligence service.  Any appointees who aren't Basilj or Republican
Guard are family or close friends. 

Many victims are
conservatives.   Some were reportedly ousted because they refused to
take pictures of demonstrators who could then be targeted by the Basilj
and Republican Guard should they ever visit Iran.   For a much more
thorough report, go to:




What may lead conservatives to defect a second time?

by FG on

Maybe Khamenei never intended to win over Iran's public.  With his base of support shrinking by the day,Khamenei needed to win back some conservatives and he has succeeded but only temporarily I think.  If rhose conservatives regard winning back public support as critical, will their attitudes toward Khenenei change again when it does not happen?

How will the public react to another coverup in which higher ups go unpunished and the extent of crimes is minimized?  We are already being told that foreigners must have committed the rapes, torture and murder because the Baslj and Republican Guard who ran the prisons would never do such a thing?  

What will be the effect of any academic crackdown, news of additional rapes and murders or opening of mass graves?   If the regime fails to release and account for ALL political prisoners, alienation will increase.  If such prisoners are released, they will cetainly get together to describe their ordeals.  Any such account would be a mass seller if it could be put into one book (as is likely). I read today that one administration apologist claimed that SHOW TRIAL DEFENDENTS CONFESSED BECAUSE THEY WERE "IMPRESSED BY THE KINDNESS OF THE REVOLUTIONARY GUARD."

Conservatives need to recognize that nothing short of Khamenei's ouster and his replacement by someone like Montezeri, Kourrabi or Mohammed Khatami can save this regime--along with massive reforms and open investigations into all crimes of the Khamenei Era.  Never again!