The Islamic Republic--Damaged Beyond Repair

Balatarin
Share/Save/Bookmark

FG
by FG
29-Jun-2012
 

The Islamic Republic's eroding base of support now comes exclusively from four elements: 1. religious reactionaries who can hardly claim to reflect the popular will, 2. high security officers who can't trust their rank and file, 3. "anything for a buck" opportunists and 4. yahoo elements (the poorest and least literate elements of Iran's population whose blind faith in the system could ordinarily be taken for granted).

prior to 2009, the latter segment had dwindled in size as mass literacy spread. However, .an even more serious problem is that while the "yahoo element" may not give a fig about civil liberties or (except among its younger elements) may despise seductive cultural freedoms it does value economic survival. Now this element increasingly shares a widespread perception that, sanctions or no, Iran can never become prosperous so long as this regime stays in power. Everyone can see how it survives by relying exclusively on bribery, force, intimidation and propaganda/ censorship (the latter so ineffective that it adds to popular contempt instead of winning over Iranians).

Even the most persistent regime propagandist is surely aware that if Iranians were given a free choice right now--that is if Khamenei suddenly allowed free, open and unvetted, elections, free speech a free media and internet--the regime would be voted out by an overwheming margin.

In just three years the system's economic and moral worthlessness has become so incredibly visible. In this climate to repeat utter nonsense such as "We are a democracy," "Our elections are fair and unrigged," "We didn't murder N," "Foreigners are responsible for all your discontents" and "The people still love the regime" is to whistle past a graveyard. It works on cynical Iranians of all classes as well as similar slogans won over cynical Russians in the late Breshnev era. Instead of winning people over the main effect is to deepen the contempt for an aging clerical Politboro. Popularr legitimacy has gone bye-bye for good. As in Assad's Syria, it is too late to reform. Too much time has passed and the crimes are too deep to forgive or forget.

Balatarin
Share/Save/Bookmark

Recently by FGCommentsDate
MORSI’S “KHOUMEINI ACT” MAY SAVE SYRIANS FROM AN IRAN-STYLE FATE
1
Dec 02, 2012
Dec. 1st roundup: Turkey-IRI tensions grow/ Assad's troubles mount
4
Dec 01, 2012
EA analyst: REGIME'S FALL COULD BE IMMINENT!"
5
Nov 29, 2012
more from FG
 
JustAnIranian

Counting every minute

by JustAnIranian on Fri Jun 29, 2012 03:39 PM PDT

Counting every minute till this regime is finally gone.  


  •  
FG

Bad news for Khamenei from Syria

by FG on Fri Jun 29, 2012 12:00 PM PDT

Experts say Assad can hang on for some time in Syria but I'm starting to wonder.  Things are getting bad fast for Assad.  Even the Russians seem to have noticed and they sound worried.

As I wrote in a recent post here two weeks ago, IF Assad should fall at the same time sanctions are hitting the IRI hard, I'm not sure Khamenei's regime can survive such a double whammy.  

The key is Assad's fall must happen simultaneously with sanctions to have the necessary overpowering psychological effect .  On one hand, Syrians' success could inspire Iranians who would surely be aware of the demoralizing effect on regime insiders faced at the same time with sanctions and virtual economic collapse.  Many insiders in Iran might be more prone to jump ship than risk their lives in a losing cause, especially if stubborn Assad and his top officials share the fate of Khaddafi and Saddam.  That would highlight the risks in using the same stubborn tactics as Khaddagi and Saddam.  

Either way, when change occurs, whether in Iran or Syria, momentum can be everything and it can shift fast.    

In Syria the damage the FSA has been inflicting on Assad's tanks, helicopters and troops seems to be accelerating rapidly these days.   Remember that if things get out of hand, defections may accelerate incredibly.   Apparently many troops have signaled a willingness to shift sides when the time seems right.  If Syria continues to lose helicopters and planes, defectors may bring armor with them.

To see how quickly the military situation is getting for Assad, read the following report in FULL.

//www.enduringamerica.com/home/2012/6/29/syria-and-beyond-live-coverage-139-die-as-assad-talks-of-eli.html

Making things worse is the fallout from recent downing of a Turkish plane (a nationalism arouser for Turks).  

In the last 48 hours the Turks have been shifting troops and heavy equipmnt to the Syrian border.   I doubt they intend to attack BUT the important thing is the Syrian regime can't afford to ignore the possibility.  How can Syria assign troops to that area when so strapped elsewhere.   Aside from stubborn battles with the FSA, it loses control of many areas as soon as its forces move elsewhere.  This opens up possibilities for cutting supply lines.  Meanwhile, men with no rest are worn down fighting for a regime and officers that most troops despise.   

 


  •  
FG

Cleric jokes at Friday Tehran sermon

by FG on Fri Jun 29, 2012 11:13 AM PDT

From Friday Prayers in Iran

 

 Hojetoleslam Kazem Siddiqi's declared that US-led sanctions will not disrupt the unity, cohesion, and prosperity of the Islamic Republic.

(What unity?  What cohesion?  What prosperity?    The latter claim is tantamount to mockery, as in Marie Antoinette's "Let them eat cake" response to the mob's demand for bread).

Siddiqi also said, “Iran has flourished [despite] sanctions."

(Is that so?)

Saddiqi claimed that Western countries must know that their sanctions have backfired and put more pressure on their own people than on Iranians.

(Fact: In the West gas prices are far lower than pre-sanctions and continue to drop).   


  •