If this unusual proposal ends Syria's turmoil, how would Iran's regime be affected?


by FG

If the suggestion I offer in this post fails, little damage is done. If it succeeds...judge for yourself.

Many people and soldiers shift sides in Syria but how many defect TO the regime? None. Who chooses the opposition instead? Everyone. From that phenomenon alone top officials of the Assad regime can make private conclusions as to their long-run survival chances. So why aren't they heading for the exits? Perhaps because they need the right incentive and space to talk it over.

MOTIVATING DEPARTURE: One problem is that regime officials are so busy handling protests they have virtually no time to mull over the implications of Khaddafi's fall. Secondly, to express honestly one's private thoughts regarding the regimes chances (i.e., defeatism) is risky. Finally, to watch or read accounts of what happened to your political twins more than a thousand miles away simply isn't visceral enough.

Suppose Syria's leaders had an opportunity to hear what defeat is REALLY like for the men at the top when the ship goes down. You can't do better getting a dramatic, first hand and in person account from someone who has been through it. Provide a few days for discussion afterwards. Throw in a one-time only, limited offer of freedom of safe exit. Make clear that the exit offer expires permanently once the "yes" or "no" deadline passes.

LIBYA'S ROLE: Understandably many Libyans would like to see Saif dead, as is likely should he stand trial at home. In return for trial before the World Court, I think Saif would accept two conditions: First, provide access to billions of stolen Libyan dollars abroad in his head. and 2. Agree to go to Damascus (under guard) to meet with Syrian officials. Saif would be required to give them a vivid picture--based on this own experience--of what they can expect when such a collapse occurs and estimate their chance of avoiding it. His assignment would include urging regime officials to accept an exit pass now while it's still available. Meanwhile Libyans get their money back, save Syria from destruction and help their Arab Spring brothers remove another Bad Guy.

NECESSITIES: First, a temporary truce. Second, both sides would need to be strongly aware of how much each has to gain by honoring it. Thirdly, in order to reduce mutual fears about what about safety of persons and property after Assad's departure, both sides would have to guarantee certain minimal conditions that I look at in a later post.


more from FG

Strongly Disagree with Vildemose on causes

by FG on

RE: "Adopting a model that rationalizes foreign intervention...will bring
horrible consequences for the Syrian people and the whole region."

Of the three things are likely to cause civil war in Syria which involves foreigners: A) Assad's refusal to exit? B) his ferocious crackdown?  or C) the refusal of Syria's people to give up and hide under the covers?  

No one would disagree if you argued that AFTER civil war develops and considering Syria's geo-strategic location, too much is at stake.  Thus, if even one country intervenes, those who see that country as a threat will likely be forced to get involved. Those most likely to do so are not western nations but regional powers who have too much at stake.  


1. Name the one country that has unquestionably intervened in Syria.  (Hint: 4 letters, starts with "I," ends with "N"). 

2. On which side?  (Hint: Not the protestors). 

3. So who has done more to "rationalize" foreign intervention at this point: A. Assad B) his opposition?

4. Which country "lebanized" Lebanon by creating a large puppet militia to which it had close ties?

5.  If I--n weren't shipping weapons and other goodies to Assad, wouldn't that be remarkably out of character? (See also Lebanon, Iraq, Yemen, and Afganistan to understand Saudi/Arab perceptions of a threat)

6. Is that nation's intervention likely to increase  or decrease if the tide in Syria turns against Assad?

7. If Syria/Iran collaboration enables  mass slaughters of Syrian civilians, should outsiders confine themselves to bystander status and pleas to Assad and Khamenei?  ("Please Stop! Oh please!  Your bad!).

OBSERVATION: When humanitarian concerns and self-interest (especiallly national security concerns) coincide as in #7 then intervention is more probable.

PREDICTION: The first to counter any Assad/Iran ties will likely be Saudi Arabia and Turkey--not western nations.


I've already shown that the three main factors pushing Syria toward civil war are exclusively domestic.  Now I'll add a fourth: The pro-Assad positions (diplomatic, economic or military in one case) of  Iran, Russia and China.  If all three withdraw their support, Assad'd position would become totally untenable, forcing him to withdraw. Assad gone = no civil war.

When you complain about  "the opposition's growing dependency on outside forces" isn't it a case of putting the shoe on the wrong foot? 

SHAME!:  Your criticism of the Arab media for "provoking"  sectarian.  sorry but the Prime Mover here is Assad. He has used his militia (with some success) to provoke the rebels to form rivsal, revenge-seeking militias.  The strategy: He can thus scare certain groups into staying loyal.  Ruthless it may be, but effective. 

All the "Arab media" has done is to report, not distort, events in Syria.  I'll agrr with your point onlly if cooperating with regfime censors in hiding unsightly deeds is a crime. 

Didn't Khamenei and Ahmadinejad take the same position vis-a-vis, the responsibility of foreigners, especiallyl the media, for making Iranians discontented after the rigged elections?   By your logic, outside media should have shut up since their reporting was the "cause" of the regime's domestic troubles.


  Syria Uprising Falls

by vildemose on


Syria Uprising Falls Victim to Power Plays
by Ramzy Baroud, Palestine Chronicle

“…Adopting a model that rationalizes foreign intervention – which is incapable of exacting change without extreme violence – will bring horrible consequences for the Syrian people and the whole region. With the Syrian government failing to win the trust of large segments of the Syrian population, the opposition’s growing dependency on outside forces, and some Arab media networks fanning the flames of sectarianism and civil war, the Syrian deadlock is morphing into something even more dangerous: a Lebanon-style civil war or a Libyan-style foreign military intervention.”


"It is the chain of communicat­ion, not the means of production­, that determines a social process."

-- Robert Anton Wilson


Turkey draws up plans for military intervention IF...

by FG on


How do these terms and conditions sound?

by FG on

Here are things I'd include.  Folks here may think of others.  I know the first one below may be hard to swallow.  However sometimes you have to give something to get something.  So consider the alternatives for all Syrians and their economy without peace now.

Assad, family and regime officials

1. In return for the agreement, the Assad family and a limited number of high officials (not including militia officers) will be allowed to leave Syria with their lives, freedom and a limited amount of cash or property.  (By walking away from it all, those who accept this offer also get a psychological bonus--instant peace of mind which they surely wouldn't enjoy otherwise in the foreseeable future).

2. Failure to adhere to all conditions below constitutes breach of agreement and cancels all privileges cited above..

3. Those accepting exiles must disclose all financial assets,  hidden or not, both inside and outside Syria.

4. Exiles must refrain from any future involvement in Syrian politics.

5. Exiles must hand over all files or provide any information on regime crimes, including their own.  In return for conditional immunity, they must agree to testify--without perjury--against anyone excluded from immunity if asked to do so.

6. Regime officials ineligible for this offer may or may not be granted similar immunity depending on the findings of investigators and the recommendations of any reconciliation council.  High officers in the regular armed forces who participated in any such crimes can be excluded from further service.  This is essential to preclude a coup.

7. To allow militia's encourages civil conflict.  The regime's militia must be dissolved and disarmed.  Members who committed serious crimes against civilians may be subject to trial and punishment.   All other members would be subject to up to six months of rehabilitation with an emphasis on promoting sectarian tolerance. 


1. Guarantee of a democratic constituion with a bill of rights and separaton of powers and full equality for minorities.  The new constitution would also ban all private militias whether linked to parties or political sects.

2. The opposition must dissolve any private militias.  FSA menbers would be integrated back into the regular army.

3. Any opposition members who committed crimes against civilians--other than known informers would be subject to trial.


BOTH SIDES must agree to a reconciliation commission.




by vildemose on


 . In Syria, two rockets slammed into Baath Party buildings in Damascus on Sunday, the first time the embryonic guerrilla resistance has hit inside the capital. . Security forces killed at least 9 protesters on Sunday, in Homs and points north. Meanwhile, the Arab League stuck to its guns with regard to its plan to send 500 observers to Syria. The Baath government complained that the plan as it stood would infringe against Syrian sovereignty. The Arab League deadline has passed for the Syrian government to cease shooting down its people, and some AL states have threatened economic sanctions. Syria has been suspended as a voting member of the Arab League.

"It is the chain of communicat­ion, not the means of production­, that determines a social process."

-- Robert Anton Wilson

Veiled Prophet of Khorasan

Re: Syrian soldiers attack Turkish citizens on 2 buses

by Veiled Prophet of Khorasan on


Great way to make friends with Turks what an idea! I am sure Turks will just love it. 

Really appeals to their better side!


Oops! Syrian soldiers attack Turkish citizens on 2 buses

by FG on

BAD TIMING: The attack happened just as Erdogan was warning Assad that his days are numbered.   This ought to make for nice fat headlines in Turkey's newspapers and whip up widespread hostility to Assad there.  

Combined with  a truce and a chance to hear Saif this incident adds one more reason for considering an exit now.   If Assad doesn't, he needs to remind himself that the odds are substantial that he and some of those around him won't be alive in next that five years.   Can you imagine a better reason to go...NOW?



One of the bus drivers, Erhan Surmeli, said he was taking 25 butchers
back to Turkey from Saudi Arabia following the Muslim festival of Eid
Al-Adha, or the feast of sacrifice.

"We had stopped at a
checkpoint," Surmeli told The Associated Press by telephone from a
Turkish hospital near the Syrian border. "Syrian soldiers emerged from
behind sandbags and cursed Erdogan when we told them we were Turks. Then
they suddenly opened fire at the bus."....

"We came face to face with death," Ahmet Okkas, a passenger, said by
telephone. "They shouted obscenities at us and opened fire."

Turkish citizen, Cemil Karli, was wounded in a separate attack on a
second bus, the state-run Anadolu Agency said. That vehicle also crossed
into Turkey and Karli was taken to a local hospital, it said.