If Rafsanjani, Khamenei, Moussavi and Karroubi are arrested


by FG

What is needed are tactics that don't play into the hands of Khamenei's security thugs--tactics dramatic enough to swing many members of the military and security forces to the public's side when ordered to engage in unpalatable dirty work. Two likely public responses would probably fail miserably because the regime will be prepared to counter them.

1. Any attempt at immediate and violent revolution. (People can save that for later if nothing else works),

2. Any attempt at a mass march or taking control over the streets.  The intimidated probably won't show up and the regime will pick off the best and the bravest who will be needed later. Khamenei won't hesitate to beat and kill 10,000 or more--whatever it takes to break resistance. I'm not opposed to violent revolution or large demonstration except when premature, unplanned and easily crushed.

The following tactics can constantly reinforce each other and build public morale if done simultaneously.

oo irTACTIC #!: A GENERAL STRIKE TO HIT THE ECONOMY HARD: Where a desperate populace has been pushed its limits, a general strike becomes feasible. Such a move is dramatic and gradually wreaks damage that undermines the regime if people hold out.  It involves minimal physical risk to participants. The best the regime can do to counter it is tho threaten to fire everyone. That's hardly practical. The catch is by itself a general strike is too gradual and not visible enough to sustain the sense of mass comaraderie, embarass the regime or push it into tacticss likely to demoralize its security forces.

TACTIC #2: A MASS PUBLIC DEMONSTRATION DESIGNED TO PARALYZE AND DEMORALIZE SECURITY FORCES SECURITY FORCES: This sort of demonstration is something I suggested earlier assuming the regime dares attempt future

Suppose tens of millions--not a mere three million--stand silently outside their houses all day long in every city, town and even the smallest villages The people get to "speak out" publicly without high physical risk  Neither words, signs nor colors are essenstial.

The regime loses whether it sends security forces or not. If not, the number of demonstrations is likely to swell each passing day. Otherwise the timid can always duck inside homes or office and return to stand outside after security forces pass. If the latter are ordered to crush so many people for Khamenei there aren't enough basilj or security forces available to do the job anyway. How many members of the regular army, the Guard and the basilj will have family members--even their own children and brothers--standing outside their doors in protests? How will they react if ordered to crack heads under such circumstances? Past historical instances suggest that mass defections occur when the circumstances are right.  At that point the regime had lost.  So create the cirumstances.

The nice thing about the Internet is that Khamenei's thugs can arrest every leader yet people can organize on their own. Wearing masks, they can copy Khoumeini 's 1979 tactic of prducing and circulating VHS to motivate the populace.   DVD's are easier to create and circulate in large numbers.  Such videos can expose the
regime's outrages in every corner of the land.  They can expose Khamenei's own crimes going back well before Khatami's presidency.   They can whip up mass participation in both the general strike and the stand-in-front of your homes demonstration. 

In the meantime I think it's essential that all the top targets and anyone else likely to be arrested follow the figures publicly declare that in event of their arrests, no subsequent confession should be believed because only torture will have produced it.


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Anahid Hojjati

vildemose is correct

by Anahid Hojjati on

I agree with vildemose's comment. 


Iran is like Humpty Dumpty:

by vildemose on

Iran is like Humpty Dumpty: All Khameini's horses and all Ahmadinejad's men cannot put Iran together again..

Darius Kadivar

They won't need to go that far ( Just Remember Bazargan)

by Darius Kadivar on

They just want to intimidate Khatami and Moussavi knowing that these fellows will never go as far as denouncing the regime's legitimacy no more than Bazargan did ...

Intimidation has ALWAYS worked in the Islamic Republic.  


I wish

by MRX1 on

Nothing is better than seeing these low life's at each other's throat....


Arrest of karroubi, khatami, etc. unlikely

by liberation08 on

i have heard from sources in iran that the natl security council refused to approve the arrests of khatami, mousavi, and karroubi

such arrests would be too incendiary