by FG
About an hour ago I wrote here that it's likely a substantial number of regime figures were seriously wounded, some critically.  Now Reuthers has posted this. 


No sign of Assad after bomb kills kin, battles rage


Under my "Joy, Oh Joy! I argued that the bomb had to injure far more people than it killed or it would be really unusual.  Some victims had to be in critical condition and others unable to function within the near future against insurgents.    Bashir himself would have to be there (a 99% probability) though I didn't mention him.  Unless he is dead or seriously wounded, wouldn't he have addressed the nation on TV or radio.  With lighter wounds but if heavily bandaged he might be reluctant to appear because his appearance would have negative consequences.

Maybe I'm just hoping and Bashir will show up.  I hadn't thought about his failure to speak publiclly when I wrote that but I should have.  His brother, who I mentioned as a possible victim could be in the field though I doubt he'd miss such a meeting or leave without a scratch.  From all I've read, including accounts from two major defectors, Bashir is a micromanager and micromanagers don't miss such meetings.

I suggested that the lack of any figures for wounded suggests something big is being covered up.  Since virtually all insiders responsible for big decisions regarding the crackdown (and few lesser figures to prevent incrimination news leaking out)any wouded personnel would be important.   F I pointed out why the other serious losses can't remain secret for long, especially among insiders.  Maybe that's what we are seeing now as the press begins to ask questions. If Bashir doesn't speak in the next 48 hours lots of Syrians, Iranians and foreign reporters will be doing serious speculating.


more from FG


by Truthseeker9 on

Thank goodness we have the likes of you to tell us what the meaning of propoganda is! 



by Shemirani on

Bashar is as crazy as his dad was ! i hope civilians in Syria will get rid of all of them ! and also hope lebanon get his true independance (they are annexed for too long)

But Iranians should focus much more on their own future,

I'm not sure the Syrian fighters are very laic (secular) people because we can hear lots of allahakbar  !!!! i just hope they say it to gave themselves the strengh to fight otherwise vaveyla !!

 when Al-Assad's regime falls down, don't you think all his killers will run away in Iran and get iranian passports like many palestinans or south lebaneses have it already !!! it's scary

in a very close future we should reject them all  to enter Iran and cut their hands on our oil for good !!!


The relevant Details on Syria, beyond Propaganda on all sides

by amirparvizforsecularmonarchy on


I would only disagree with the conclusion of it where he says, failed in Iraq, failed in libya, and now going for a 3rd try at the humanitarian approach therefore failed in Syria.  The Truth is Succeeded in Iraq, Succeded in Libya and now likely Succeeded in Syria.  Because the true agenda was never humanitarin or to promote democracy, but to help extremists and create regression exactly like the west did in Iran by supporting Khomeini and covertly wishing to keep noxious participants like the MeK for iran.



US says al-Assad's days are numbered‎

by Truthseeker9 on

Surviving members of Syria inner circle


Syrian President Bashar al-Assad is in the coastal city of Latakia, directing a response to the assassination of three of his top lieutenants, opposition sources and a Western diplomat said on Thursday Today`s Zaman reproted. 

"President Assad's days are numbered," US Ambassador to the United Nations, Susan Rice, said.

"We will strengthen and intensify our work with countries outside the Security Council, particularly the Friends of the Syrian People," Rice said, adding that the group had been asking for strong UN measures against Damascus. But she said it was not possible to meet the demand because of vetoes from Russia and China. 

She also said the US will increase its amount of humanitarian aid.



Reap what you sow

by asadabad on

assad the murderer and the terrorists in hezbollah murdered rafik hariri and many other Lebanese.  It would be a gift from above if assad and nasrallah were both liquidated the same way.


To anonymous

by FG on

The missing person mentioned in my recent post was NOT Assad.  

I originally wrote that Assad "may" be injured or dead. His absence was suspicious.  It's still possible the video shown today shows an earlier meeting.

I also discussed another key figure who hasn't been seen since the bombing. That MAY be significant (and maybe not) but surely it is worth looking in to.

I stand by thes following observations:

--It is certain that other MANY major figures essential to the crackdown were present.

-- It's also IMPOSSIBLE that no one else would be injured--some seriously. Any bomb powerful enough to kill four people would SURELY impact others in the room.  

Why isn't the media making the same observation and probing for details?


Anonymous Observer

Here he is

by Anonymous Observer on


A very big insider still hasn't been seen since the bombing

by FG on

Who is it?   That's as of four hours ago.

Meanwhile many Syriana remain skeptical about the photo of Assad and the new defense chief.  They not it is odd that Bashir hasn't addressed them publicly on TV where his status could be confirmed.

Anahid Hojjati

Did you hear what happened to Khamenei?

by Anahid Hojjati on

I have a blog ready about it but I am not posting it because it may not get featured.



by FG on

An online site has what we know now.   However, knowing the editors seem to regard such developments as unimportant, I won't bother posting a link here.

All I can say is he in not in Lattakia, where opposition members and a diplomat claimed earlier.  A photo showing him "today" is suspected of being outdated.   If so, why would they do that? 



by Truthseeker9 on

I can see you in Enduring America


BTW, I was joking. I think EA and Huffington Post are great, used to follow them for their live blogs and up to date posts during the Election. 


To truthseeker & some hints on HUGE developments

by FG on

I have no interest in "top billing" but to have a post like the above not even mentioned on the top page really discourages posting.

1. political security building falls in Damascus

2.  Major artillery base falls and video proves it.

3. FSA claims to have seized all border posts with Iraq.

4. Victories elsewhere have opened two major roads to Aleppo.

5. Regime defenders were massacred at a border post and a lieutenant had his arms and legs amputated.

6. Many FSA attacks on coordinated with insiders suggestion defections are organized ahead of time.

I'm not including details or analysis as usual since it takes time which would only be wasted jusging by what happened to the above post. 


STUNNING developments in Syria just now

by FG on

But it would be a waste of time to update you here.  I'd suggest you check out the latest at the Syria section of



by Truthseeker9 on

I always read your posts, whether they are featured or not. If you really want top billing, perhaps take pictures of yourself with some gargoyles. Usually does the job.   :)

(only joking JJJ...) 


FG, Great work of

by Azarbanoo on

Updating us about current situation in Syria.  Thanks for working hard.

Anahid Hojjati

FG, your blogs on Syria are appreciated

by Anahid Hojjati on

I appreciate you and other bloggers including Mr. Kadivar who post news about Syria, so please continue with your posts. It is a very critical time for Syria and Syria's relationship with IRI makes news about Syria so important for this site.


Wow! I really wasted time writing this post

by FG on

More than eight hours has passed since I wrote it about 1:30 AM in Arizona. It still is nowhere to be seen on the home page.  Nice burial job.  I can't think of a better way of turning fresh news and analysis into stale.

Forget today's roundup, updating and analysis which was supposed to appear under this post.   In fact, if I can't count on material appearing after spending a great deal of time writing it, why bother in the future.

I've been away from for weeks.  Sorry I came back. I can find better ways to waste time.  For keeping up with developments in Iran, Syria and elsewhere, I'll just go elsewhere. 


Al Arabiya claims Assad in in Latakia on the coast HOWEVER...

by FG on

and that he's directing operations from there.


1. I'd wait for confirmation from other sources.  Al Arabiya has shown a past tendency to treat rumors as fact.

2. If the story is true, Syrians will ask a good question, "Has he abandoned Damascus as unsafe?"  (A week ago it was unconceivable)

3. In any case, where is Bashir's brother? 

4. Is Bashir wounded? If so, why has he not been on TV? 


Other rumors

by FG on

Mass defections of soldiers and a rampage by pro-regime militiamen were reported in the capital amid a swirl of rumours, including one that Assad's wife, Asma, had fled to Russia and another that troops were being issued with gas masks, raising fears of the use of chemical weapons.

The president's whereabouts was also unclear, with one unconfirmed report that he had been wounded and left Damascus for Latakia on the coast.

(I'd regard the first as especially probable.  If the claim about rampages by militiamen is true, I suspect the latter will suffer high casualties soon).

... Syrian state television, which was uncharacteristically quick to report the news, also said the military would call up its reserve forces on Thursday morning. Replacements for the three dead men were quickly announced.

General Fahd Jassem al-Freij, Rajha's replacement, denied reports on Arab satellite television channels about military defections in Idlib and Damascus and explosions at 4th Division HQ.

Rumours spread wildly in the hours after the incident, though much information was impossible to verify. According to one pro-government source, FSA rebels began moving around in pick-up trucks to demonstrate that they controlled parts of the city. Ba'ath party members had been executed by FSA men, the source said.;;;

There were also widespread reports of defections in central Damascus as well as in the cities of Homs and Hama. Activists reported that several tanks had been abandoned near the centre of the capital and that several combat units had defected en masse. These reports could not be confirmed.

The Guardian, in which the above rumors appeared, concludes that " Prospects for any kind of negotiations between the government and rebels, always slim, have now all but disappeared."  I agree.

Also from the Guardian:

Assad supporters admitted the attack was a serious blow. "This will not be the end of the regime in any way," said a member of Assad's Alawite community. "But it is serious and people are traumatised at the fact that the opposition managed to assassinate these people. But government supporters want the government to be firm and show it is still in control. The Syrian government is not usually impulsive."

You may also find the following Guardian analysis of interest:

Is the murder of the Syrian strongmen the beginning of the end?





1. Some of the units regarded as "diehards" immediately swapped sides, according to activists and residents in Damascus. Others are reported to have abandoned their tanks and fled. 

(Observation: Hard-liners have rarely defected before.  Now if Bashir's brother failed to show up for work today that could explain it.   You bet rumors would fly


2. A video posted on the internet showed hundreds of men defecting in Homs. Another appeared to show cars streaming out of Aleppo to reinforce the rebels.

3.  In Idlib province, envoys from opposition villages travelled to pro-regime enclaves imploring them to join the revolution. The mood, bleak and full of foreboding only last week as shortages and siege began to take hold, was reported to be euphoric. Shawkat's death in particular seemed to strike a chord among loyalists and rebels alike. "Stability with Assad," was what we were supposed to get, said Thaer Nakhli, speaking by telephone from the Damascus suburb of Down. "He says stick with me – and he can't protect the capital."

4.  Mohammed Nazhar, a lieutenant in the Free Syrian Army, said a rebel intelligence unit had been working to co-opt key aides from within the regime to use as assassins. The message it wanted to convey was clear: who in the regime was safe if the most feared of them all could be reached so easily?  

OBSERVATION: The resistance in Syria seems to be highly imaginative.  Here's another idea Iranians may want to borrow when the time is ripe, an uprising has momentum and insiders are looking for an out).

5. (Good questions):  Whether the fear factor has been broken will be decisive. Have the opposition's gains galvanised waverers in the regime to join them? Does the regime still have the capacity to shut down violence with overwhelming force? Does it have a new crew of leaders who can command the same loyalty and instil the same fear?



EA is asking the same question now

by FG on

Unconfirmed rumours swirled about President Assad and his brother Maher, a key military commander; the bottom line was that neither were seen as their leadership was shaken violently.

NOTE: Lacking access to rumors, I'm stuck with analysis alone.  Neverthess EA's report raises this issue: Is word leaking out?  Or are the rumors just rumors? Or are Syrians reasoning along the same lines?  If Bashir or his brother are seriously injured, how long can the regime survive that on top of so much other bad news.