ANALYSIS: ISLAMIC REPUBLIC IS NOW A FAILURE IN EVERY WAY POSSIBLE

Share/Save/Bookmark

FG
by FG
12-Jan-2012
 

IRAN'S ISLAMIC REPUBLIC AS REGIONAL POWER--GRADE DROPS BELOW PASSING!!!

Not long ago things were looking up in the neighborhood looked. The Arab Spring, the rise of Turkey, the defection of Hamas and Assad's impending demise have changed everything. The only good news is a friendly regime in Iraq where neighbors will counter by arming and aiding minorities. Future regional prospects: Worse.

IRAN'S ISLAMIC REPUBLIC AS MODEL FOR ISLAMIST STATES ELSEWHERE--GRADE DROPS TO SUB ZERO!

In 1979 Iran gave hope to Islamists elsewhere, including Al Queda. Now Erdogan's model in Turkey is red hot and Iran's model cited as "what we want to avoid" by every Islamist political party. For those who love social police, the Saudis are still on step up on what Iran offers but the latter is playing catch up. Future prospects as an Islamist model: Not a chance.

IRAN'S ISLAMIC REPUBLIC AS EDUCATIONAL ROLE MODEL--GRADE DROPS TO F+

The regime was once well ahead of everyone in the region here. No longer. Success in this area requires openness and academic freedom. In Iran's best professors have been fired and replaced with political loyalists and Islamist clerics. The Basilj and security cameras rule university halls as well as the streets. Censorship of books, theater and the internet thwartss intellectual development further. Nowhere do college graduates have a tougher time finding a job. If they find one, they can wait months for a paycheck. When it comes it is in funny money. Future Prospects for education: Lousy.

IRAN'S ISLAMIC REPUBLIC AS A POPULAR REGIME AT HOME--GRADE DROPS FROM A- IN 1979 TO SUB-ZERO TODAY

Here is a fourth area in which the mullocracy once had an edge over neighboring rulers. In the beginning Iranians were naive. Iranians believed holy men could be trusted if anyone could. Iranians could not imagine holy men would never steal from them plunder the land or brutalize them far more rapaciously than the Shah.

So long as Iranians believed that, their elections could be relatively democratic compared to authoritian governments elsewhere in the region. The moment when Iranians came to realize how naive they had been, all traces of democracy had to go. Rigged elections are now standard and a police state essential. Future prospects: Not a Chance!

IRAN'S ISLAMIC REPUBLIC AS ECONOMIC ROLE MODEL--GRADE DR0PS FROM ZERO TO SUBZERO QUICKLY

In 1979 Iran had the fastest growing economy in the world in 1979 though, then as now, wealth as concentrated in a ruling faction. In 1979 per capita income was way ahead of China and India and about equal to that of Turkey and South Korea. Today Korea's per capita income is 20 times higher than Iran's. Turkey is attracting foreign investment in greater numbers at the same time Iran repels it. Turkey also has plans for world class universities--not even a remote possibility in Iran now.

From the begining, the mullocracy has graded "F' In economics, being incompetent and corrupt from the start. It's hard to imagine the economy could do any worse but that's the case as the ruling faction becomes smaller, wealthier and even more greedy. The security forces' power over the economy, a relatively new innovation and giant bribe of sorts by the mullahs was designed for self-protection as popular discontent spread. It has made the economy even worse and less efficient. Meanwhile sanctions are of the regime's own making and a consequence of its policies toward neighbors and the world. Hence the sub-zero grade.

Future prospects: Is sub-sub zero possible? Stay tuned As for the chances that anyone would want to emulate the IRI in this area, I see better odds that the Pope will turn cannibal and announce his move to New Guinea.

 

 

Share/Save/Bookmark

more from FG
 
masoudA

Dear FG 2

by masoudA on

I am assuming you are not Iranian and/or you have very littleknowledge about Irean during the Qajar era or about the anglo-russian entente.   In the last 300+ years Iran had only 32 years of relative freedom and sovereinghty between 1945-78 due to actual presence of American armed forces in Iran - and somewhat free of the social and economical stranggling of the anglo-russian treaty.

//en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Morgan_Shuster

You are looking at Iran from a western prespective - think again.   US Iranians have little organizational skills when it comes to politics.    Historically (still true today) our left was organized by the Russians (Toodeh Party) and our right by the British (Shiite Clergy). 

   


FG

Demand for the dollar is spilling over into Iraq

by FG on

Demand for the dollar is spilling over into Iraq from both Syria and Iran.

//news.yahoo.com/iraq-demand-dollars-spikes-a...

Unlike Iran's mullahs, Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood hails ties with US


Iran's leaders NEED hostility to the West,
having exploited it to seize control of the revolution in 1979.  

Also,
the presence of oil allows them to be more insular despite the consequent damage its isolation inflicts on Iranians.  If the mullahs could turn Iran into North Korea they'd do it in a heartbeat.

//news.yahoo.com/us-diplomat-meet-egypt-musli...


FG

Demand for the dollar is spilling over into Iraq

by FG on

Demand for the dollar is spilling over into Iraq from both Syria and Iran.

//news.yahoo.com/iraq-demand-dollars-spikes-a...

 

So Unlike Iran's mullahs, Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood hails ties with US


Iran's leaders NEED hostility to the West,
having exploiting it to seize control of the revolution in 1979.  

Also,
the presence of oil allows them to be more insular despite the consequent damage its isolation inflicts on Iranians.  If the mullahs could turn Iran into North Korea they'd do it in a heartbeat.

//news.yahoo.com/us-diplomat-meet-egypt-musli...


FG

The regime's 6th failure: RELIGION

by FG on

A regime that was supposed to promote religion, Islam and respect for the clergy seems to have done just the opposite--another area it has floundered completely after a hot start.  In no Middle Eastern country are clerics less respected and flights from Islam so pronounced.  Often mosques are relatively empty.   Religion is equated with repression.


Maryam Hojjat

FG, thanks for posting this blog

by Maryam Hojjat on

Thanks for writing with clarity all the events and analyzing them. 


FG

Turks seize 4 Iranian trucks loaded with weapons for Assad

by FG on

You can get this news will spread fast among ticked-off Syrians.  The Islamic Republic can expect consequences when Assad goes down, which is a virtual certainty.

As you'd expect Tehran is denying the whole thing as it has denied previous covert schemes both in the neighborhood (Yemen, Iraq) and elsewhere (the Washington plot).  Also, as you'd expect, no body believes Tehran.

What's especially embarassing is that the trucks were intercepted at the same time Larinjani was on a trip to Turkey to promote better relations and discourage action toward Assad

 

//www.reuters.com/article/2012/01/12/us-turke...

A RUSSIAN SHIP STOPPED IN CYPRUS WAS LOADED WITH ARMS FOR ASSAD

 //news.yahoo.com/russian-ship-stopped-carrying-arms-bound-syria-130539857.html

The Syrian people won't forget that.  When Assad goes, Russia will certainly lose its sole Mediterranean naval base as a direct consequences of all the assistance rendered to Assad for use against his people.

 //news.yahoo.com/russian-ship-stopped-carrying-arms-bound-syria-130539857.html

 

LARGE DEFECTION IN SYRIA TODAY

Homs
Wadi Al-Sayeh
All the officers and soldiers in Wadi Al-Sayeh neighborhood defected and joined the Free Army in Khaldieh neighborhood, the sitters are celebrating there.

 //www.lccsyria.org/5120

GROWING EVIDENCE SUGGESTS ASSAD REGIME PLANNED KILLING OF FRENCH TV JOURNALIST

It now appears the killing of a French televison journalist was manipulated and pre-planned.

 The Guardian carries a report from a French journalist who was nearby:

Speaking to Europe 1 radio, Jacques Duplessy said he wondered if the entire incident had been a "trap".

"I think we were royally manipulated.

"It wasn't a freak incident at all because after those four shells, there was nothing more. It was over: no attack, no shooting."

Duplessy said he was suspicious of the Syrian state media's rapid response.

"Syrian television was everywhere- three cameras. They filmed everything...One wonders if it was actually a trap, if it wasn't a deliberate attack on journalists."

He added: "Of course, we know nothing. We have no proof."

Thierry Thuillier, head of news at France Télévisions, ruled out such ideas. "It seems to me to be really premature to be talking of manipulation," he said.

See also: The Crisis in Syria: No Immunity for Bystanders

//news.yahoo.com/crisis-syria-no-immunity-bys...


FG

Hello, Masoud

by FG on

re: If you are assuming from Day 1, IR came to power for any reason other
than full distruction and demise of Iran, and Iranians - you are
mistaking.

I disagree in two respects:

1. I'd say in Iran in 1979, like Russia in 1917, there were two revolutions in the same year.  The first was a broad revolution with many factions involved, some of whom were anything but clerical. 

The second revolution in both cases was basically a coup in which a small more discliplned group stole the revolution and edged out former allies who it executed, jailed or exiled.  The clerical faction did not launch an attack on the Embassy but saw how they could take advantage of a "gift horse" to seize control.  

2. You say the clerics seized control for the purpose of "bringing about the demise of Iran and Iranians."   I doubt that was their primary purpose though it has been the result

They seized control because they wanted to rule Iran and expose an experiment upon it.  They supported a religion based ideology antithetical to western cultural influences and political liberties whose roots go back to the Enlightenment.  They won't admit that outright but it's what they really celebrate each year on the anniversary of the revolution.  The USA was never a threat to the revolution (especially under Jimmy Carter of all people!) and the clerics knew it if the students who seized the embassy did not.   They just played up a non-existent threat idea the students had been primed to believe in, especially by leftists and nationalists..

These "coup clerics" dreamed of something like a slightly less harsh version of Saudi rule but run by clerics instead of a king.  Like all such revolutions, true believers in using an Islam-based system to produce a better life would be pushed aside and replaced by opportunists.  The latter group is interested in nothing but using the original ideology as a vehicle to personally rise in power and wealth.  Thus, like Soviet leaders in Breshnev's time, these types  mouth the right words and use the ideology as a club.  

In the second or clerical revolution, there was a inner hardline group who would over a period of many years oust all the original idealists with 2009 completing that process.  The ousted idealists consisted of people who at least though (mistakenly) that the clerics and Islam, applied to government, could produce a better life.  Its survivors now see the 1979 revolution as having been perverted in the same way Stalin was seen to have perverted what Lenin actually intended in Russia.  These types are akin to those who complain today that "communism didn't fail because 'true" communism was never tried.   Of course, we all know "true communism," whatever that is, would never have worked in real life, nor could the Islamist theories on which the second Iranian revolution (the coup) of 1979 rested.

Nevertheless the clerics on 1979 were willing to use force to compel everyone to participate in a social experiment "for their own good."  Today Irand ruling clerics consist of total opportunists without an ounce of idealism or morality.  At the top is Khamenei, the Iranian Stalin, who would kill his own mother to keep his power and perks.  Anyone with a trace of idealism is long gone and the Iranian people know it.  In other respects Iran resembles the Soviet government in its ossified final years.

 


masoudA

Dear FG

by masoudA on

There is a problem with the basic premises of your argument.   If you are assuming from Day 1, IR came to power for any reason other than full distruction and demise of Iran, and Iranians - you are mistaking.   And unfortunately - they have been quiet successful in many ways...especially in reducing our GDP and helping England, Norway, Holland, Sweden,....and Russia to bebuild theirs.

Other than that - thanks for a great article


FG

Adversaries of Iran Said to Be Stepping Up Covert Actions

by FG on

Excerpt from NY Times article:

 As arguments flare in Israel and the United States about a possible military strike to set back Iran’s nuclear program,
an accelerating covert campaign of assassinations, bombings,
cyberattacks and defections appears intended to make that debate
irrelevant, according to current and former American officials and
specialists on Iran.

... The assassination drew an unusually strong condemnation from the White
House and the State Department, which disavowed any American complicity

... The Israeli military spokesman, Brig. Gen. Yoav Mordechai, writing on
Facebook about the attack, said, “I don’t know who took revenge on the
Iranian scientist, but I am definitely not shedding a tear,” Israeli
news media reported.

//www.nytimes.com/2012/01/12/world/middleeast...

FG: Though the regime blames the USA.  It will probably blame the Greens too. The Israelis are vastly better positioned for such attacks than the CIA.  Mossad has more people who can pass in Iran without easy notice.   


FG

SHOULD EMIGRES VISIT IRAN, INVEST OR SEND CASH?

by FG on

(This section is a revision of an earlier post I made elsewhere here)

RE: “He (Mirzaei Hezmati) may have been this innocent naïve guy who wanted to visit Iran and
got assurances that he would be fine"

RE: it is highly unlikely
that the (CIA) would have engaged someone with such a visible military résumé. (NY Times)

THE REGIME NEEDS HOSTAGES.  WILL YOU HELP?

In the Islamic Republic, as in Somalia, hostage taking is a well -established tradition going back to the American
embassy siege in 1979 when it allowed the mullahs to seize control of the
revolution, oust and executing revolutionary chums and introduce
Iran's people gradually to hell on earth. It's no wonder that event
is celebrated every year.  It has nothing to do with "Death to America"
or to foreign conspiracies.

Visiting Iranian emigres make nifty hostages.  Their innocence doesn't
matter and you don't need evidence.  Many have families and friends can
be "shaken down" after a year or two of jail and beatings.  Can they
afford it? Should hostages feel guilty afterwards for having stupidly
tempted fate in put others in such a position?

Also ideal as hostages are western tourists whose connections back home
can be tapped.  Recall the three hikers.  For propanda purposes the
retired FBI tourist was ideal.  His credentials were lousy ones for a
real spy, but very useful otherwise

HOW THE BRAIN DRAIN COSTS IRAN

For years now, Iran has been #1 in the world in brain drain.   Millions
more wish they could leave.  Who would consider returning and staying in this gloomy tyranny? 

By contrast, returning emigres and emigree investment have contributed
substantially to the rise of Asian giants.   Returning to these
countries, even
communist China, is no where near as dangerous or depressing as
returning to Iran's mullah-ruled thugocracy.

Suggestion: If you've got to visit relatives and they can't come here, is it possible to meet in a neighboring country?

HOW MISSED TOURISM COSTS IRAN

Tourist spending can do a lot for an economy, as it did for relatively
oilless Egypt, Tunisia and Syria.  Ruling mullahs have concluded that
any economic benefits are easily offset by the political downside. 
Tourists and visitiing emigres above all might describe from first-hand
experience how much better life
is in the west--all the economic and social freedoms they enjoy, their
better living standards (even in a recession), paydays on which people
actually get paid, etc.  It is obvious why the mullahs can't have that. 

Even if they aren't taken hostage, imprisoned for months or years and
then ripped off, why would any tourist looking for places to go select
the fun-hostile Islamic Republic?    Visiting females are compelled to
wear habib...unlike elsewhere.  You can't even enjoy a glass of wine or a
cocktail in a hotel dinner..unlike elsewhere, including much of the
Middle East.

SEND MONEY BACK TO KIN OR INVEST IN THE IRI: YES OR NO!

On the one hand, emigres want to help their kin in what should NOT be a
poor country if run with half a brain or a modicum of honesty.   When
there is no transparency and when a government is not fully open to
public veto in free and fair elections, that kind of situation is
commonplace.

On the other hand, most emigres despise the regime and want it gone. 
They know growing economic problems can help bring it about.   Any hard
currency sent to Iran helps keep the regime in power.  In essence, your
relatives in Iran are hostages too.  What a shameless, incompetent and
brutal "role model" the Islamic Republic offers!

I don't envy emigres this decision.

WHEN THE IRI DISAPPEARS...

Few will mourn this Dark Age.  Certainly the economy will be better off
and not just from lessened corruption & economic incompetence and an
end to sanctions.  Iranians will enjoy many new sources of wealth
including emigre investment and skilled human resources, a revival of
tourism and a more diverse economy.

Buit first, like Egypt, Iran will have to do something about another
Mullah Legacy--the leftover coterie off fattened-up  security force
generals and their monopolies.  These guys won't go easily.  Khamenei's
crimes included creating such a threat, not to defend Iran and its
people from foreign invaders--but almost exclusively to assure that the
perks and privileges of newly enriched mullahs would be retained as long
as possible.

If Khamenei a good, decent man, or if he really gave a damn about the
average Iranian, he would never have haded over so much political and
economic clout to his security force generals.  When this regime goes, I
suspect many Iranians won't miss the chance to "take a dump" on
Sayyid's grave.