FG

  مشاور

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One of Chief advisor to Khamenei: We should start a war

khodnevis

26-Nov-2011 (5 comments)

Haiyee Rahim Safavi, senior military assistant and advisor to Ali

Khamenei said that "Iran's enemies are like rabid dogs that need to be

beaten with wooden stick, "said the Islamic republic to stop threats by

Slogan and a threat to take feasiable actions and a "offensive strategy ". A few days after Amir Ali Hajizadeh, commander of the IRGC's aerospace force

That "our desire is for Iran to be attacked Iran" a great adviser to Khamenei on the

Was endorsed and urged the Islamic Republic "actual threats and Aggression" and

No more  "slogans and cheap talks.



Go fight the enemy

"It is the chain of communicat­ion, not the means of production­, that determines a social process."

-- Robert Anton Wilson

Interesting article

The article about Khamenei's strategy is an interesting one, but Mr. Khorrami is missing an important variable that must be considered in any strategic forecasting of Iran's future. I believe more important than Supreme leader and the president is the leadership of IRGC, and how they would react to the events on the ground. Any sound analysis of Iran must include their role. 

Re: Khamenei

Vilermose is right  history is against him. The IRI was built on the persona of one man: Khomeini. Now it holds power by force meaning lots of power to the Sepah. There are two paths: regime goes before Khamenei or not.

The first path means Khamenei is lucky to get out alive. Therefore I will focus on the second. Assuming Khamenei dies with regime in power there will be yet another power grab. The regime may change right there and be replaced with a something very different. It may be the Sepah decide to take over completely and oust the Mollahs. AN may pull something. Or there may be a total regime change with unpredictable results. Possibly with not too subtle a push from the Americans.

But say the regime does not change: are the Mollahs going to pick another dictator. Or will they go for a different system. I bet it is the latter. Because they don't want to give all their power up to one man. All the top brass are going to want their own share. Mollahs; AN and the rest. That implies no VF or one with much reduced power. Maybe the assembly of experts will choose to replace the VF as a group. The Majlis will want to re-assert itself. My bet is whatever happens days of VF will end with  Khamenei.

3 critical ingredients could bring Iran to the boiling point

Sanctions and growing diplomatic isolation take time for their effects to maximize and can't bring down the regime without additional ingredients.

Three impending developments show promise: 1.  Assad's fall  2. possible hyperinflation
3. the upcoming elections. It is inconceivable that the reactionary and deeply hated mullahs can win any free, open and fair election so that isn't even an option. 

I see three possible election outcomes, one of which will make Khamenei happy:

OUTCOME A: Ahmadinejad's faction wins and takes office.

OUTCOME B: Ahmadinejad's faction wins and is cheated.

OUTCOME C: The Guardian Council eliminates Ahmadinjad's faction in advance, assuring a meaningless election in which few Iranians bother to vote. 

Outcome A creates a running sore.  Outcome C does the same or sets off post-election protests. 

Outcome B almost surely will set off an explosion initiated by infuriated Ahmadinejad supporters.  Whether or not the mullahs survive will then depend on whether Greens and the working class join in and whether protestors follow an effective strategy (spontaneous, widespread and never ending protests.  Security forces must be kept off balanced, worn down and with too many areas to cover.

Khameni's plan for Iran

 FG: very interesting articles, indeed.

"No doubt aware of this, Khamenei is likely to be paving the way for his successor by proposing a constitutional change that will ultimately eliminate the presidency by putting in place a parliamentary system in which the Majlis will be at the forefront. By abolishing the presidency, Khamenei would be trying to ensure that his departure from the scene will coincide with the emergence of a weak Supreme Leader and a weak executive branch. In this way, the centers of power will arrive at some kind of equilibrium, which would help ensure the regime’s survival. The clergy class would also be able to preserve its political power by having a representative in the office of the Supreme Leader who exercises more or less equal authority compared with that of the prime minister.  

All this said, there are many obstacles to be overcome if this idea is to become a reality. Khamenei needs to ensure that his allies win most of the seats in the upcoming parliamentary election so his proposal will receive enough votes to become a law. More importantly, he needs to ensure that the next president will be an individual willing to take an initiative to the Majlis that will ultimately cost him his job. Who that individual may be is difficult to see, but unconfirmed reports point to Saeed Jalili, Iran's chief nuclear negotiator, as Khamenei’s favorite.

And, even if all goes according to plan and the regime maintains its hold on power while Khamenei is alive, history shows that Khamenei's new strategy for securing the regime’s survival may still face some problems. In the 1940s, the combination of a weak Shah, a strong Majlis, and international pressure on Iran led to the eventual election of an anti-status quo prime minster – Mohammad Mossadegh – whose threat to the political establishment was only eliminated through covert means orchestrated by foreign powers.  

Nima Khorrami Assl is a security analyst at Transnational Crisis Project, London. His work has appeared in The Guardian and Foreign Policy Journal, among other publications.

"It is the chain of communicat­ion, not the means of production­, that determines a social process."

-- Robert Anton Wilson