The Futility of the “Grand Bargain” and Friday the 13th Meeting


The Futility of the “Grand Bargain” and Friday the 13th Meeting
by Faramarz

It appears that the IR Regime’s representatives and the P5+1 are going to meet on April 13th, 2012 to try to negotiate their way out of the current impasse. While the negotiations are centered on Iran’s nuclear file, the idea of a “Grand Bargain” has been out there and been aggressively promoted by some Iranian-Americans.

Prime Minister Erdogan of Turkey met with President Obama in Seoul this week and has taken Obama’s message to Iran. The Turkish/Brazilian framework for enriched nuclear material swap that was developed last year seems to be the game plan to resolve some of the issues.

But in order to better appreciate how far apart the parties are in reaching an agreement let’s take a look at what each side wants.

The Supreme Leader wants the following out of the negotiations with the US.

1. US to recognize the Regime as the legitimate representative of the Iranian people and not to undermine it in any shape or form.

2. End all the economic sanctions and return billions of dollars in frozen assets.

3. US not to interfere in Iran’s internal affairs including the human rights, the political prisoners and the women’s rights.

4. US to end its military presence in the Persian Gulf Region.

Now, let’s take a look at what the US and the West want out of the negotiations with the Regime.

1. Resolve the nuclear enrichment issue by limiting the amount and the scope of the program and put in place a comprehensive inspection of suspected weapon sites, documents and questioning of individuals by IAEA.

2. The IR Regime to end hostilities towards Israel including the military and financial support of Hezbollah and Hamas.

3. The IR Regime to improve human rights conditions in Iran including the political prisoners and the women’s rights.

4. The IR Regime to stop interfering in the affairs of its neighbor and support the efforts by the international community to stabilize Iraq and Afghanistan.

Well, as we can see there are plenty of redlines and not much overlap in the demands of either side.

However, one could argue that if we could narrowly define a limited enrichment activity and swap, there could be some progress. But the inspection of weapon sites will remain a sticky point. Also, one wonders what can be offered to the Regime if it agrees to the limited enrichment plan. The sanctions will remain in place for the time-being so will the other demands from the Regime.

At this point it appears that the Friday the 13th negotiations are unlucky from the get-go!

Above is the picture of Erdogan and family arriving in Tehran and being greeted by the rain-drenched IR Foreign Minister Salehi. The Erdogans are planning to visit Mashad as a part of the trip.  


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Who Loves ya Bibi!

by Faramarz on

Thanks for reading and commenting dear friends.

The Regime has dug such a deep hole for itself by its actions, rhetoric and by removing all its pressure valves that at this point any compromise will be seen as a sign of weakness and will be totally unacceptable to its leadership.

While the Regime could have easily gotten away with a “pause” in its enrichment activities a few years ago, today it has to surrender to intrusive inspection of its military sites like Parchin and even that will not guarantee the removal of sanctions.

Meanwhile, the Israelis have escalated this situation to the point that only an “I Love Israel” message from Rahbar to Bibi will be accepted by the West!

Or as Kojak used to say, "Who loves ya baby?"

G. Rahmanian

An intelligent analysis!

by G. Rahmanian on

The regime in Tehran will never bow to such demands. Acceptance of the above demands is tantamount to regime's signing its own death sentence.

Oon Yaroo

Faramarz, is anybody from NIAC going to be at the negotiation ta

by Oon Yaroo on

negotiation table or maybe under the table?

I think the meeting will be another waste of time from the West's perspectives.

When it comes to negotiating with the IRR regime, "you have to put the gun right at its head and tell it either sign on the dotted line or your brains are going to splash all over the place!" 



Thanks Faramarz

by divaneh on

Another contest between the West and Russia/China.

Anonymous Observer

All an effort to buy time

by Anonymous Observer on

that's all.  The IR is always up to no good.


Dear Faramarz: In hayoola

by vildemose on

Dear Faramarz: In hayoola raftani ist, whether they are  propped up by the US, Russia, and China.

A state of war only serves as n excuse for domestic tyranny.--Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn.


Faramarz jaan

by Mehrban on

Interesting blog, thanks.



by Mehrban on