Scenarios For Dummies!

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Scenarios For Dummies!
by Esfand Aashena
08-Mar-2012
 

I was reading this article by Frida Ghitis on CNN entitled Four scenarios on Iran nuclear program which are actually 6 scenarios and Ms. Ghitis is trying to hide the most likely scenario as a sub-scenario!  Sort of like our own Bahmani who can't stand it that Farhadi has won an Oscar and is aimlessly trying to dismiss it!

Anyway, here are her 4 scenarios:

1. Ayatollahs give in to diplomacy and a compromise is reached.

2. Israel or Obama get tired of diplomacy and attack Iran.  Iran loses and a pro western Government is sworn in and everyone lives happily ever after.

  2.1.  Iran retaliates and Israel and Obama realize that they have taken on more than they can chew.

3. Iran reaches the ability to make the nuclear bomb and the neighboring Arab countries and Turkey say they want one too.

4. Iran actually makes a nuclear bomb and tells the world they have a nuclear bomb.  Then Iran threatens to wipe Israel off the map so much that war breaks out.

  4.1 Since Iran has a nuclear bomb it is not clear how or who will use the nuclear bomb first.

In the end she concludes "The only way war may be avoided is if Iran believes an attack from the West is a real possibility."  As if! 

Well I don't know about ya'll but based on previous and most recent experiences in Iraq and Afghanistnan I'd say scenario 2.1 is the most likely scenario, IF Iran is attacked.  If Iran is not attacked then everything else is just lip service which will lose its value with each passing year.  Sort of like the Israeli officials these days who are losing their credibility when their 1 year window of immunities has come and gone so many times that more and more analysts are pointing to the bygone deadlines!

How can attacking Iran with a population of more than 70 million and 4 times as big as and populated than Iraq be a breeze and talked about so non-chalantly when after not only 8 years of war with Iraq but after 13 years of round the clock air sorties above the skies of Iraq over the no-fly zone (1990 - 2003) and mapping and photographing every square inch of the its territory failed to produce any tangible results for US and its allies?

The most likely scenario is that Iran will retaliate.  I hope more analysts would consider and analyze Iran's retaliation both short term and long term.  I hope our Iranians living abroad who openly advocate or secretly waiting for the war to happen can imagine the repercussions of an Iranian retaliation would have on their daily lives and the reactions of countries they're living in and people they're living with.

Yesterday the US Defense Minister Paneta and the Joints Chief were briefing the Congress on Syria.  They said Syria is much more complicated than Libya because of its Military capability so they won't attack it.  WTF??  I remember some i.com bloggers were saying there may come a time when Ayatollahs' atrocities would become so much that outside help would be needed.  Well look no further than Syria for that scenario!

As we say in Farsi, politics has neither a mother nor a father and if it does they're abusive parents! 

Photo caption: the old kandovan tunnel on the way to the Caspian region.

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more from Esfand Aashena
 
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Dear Esfand

by darius on

 I feel so bad for you, you have been  playing smart and the dummy role since you started this blog. Look at the positive side of the issue, at least you know , I am here for you  to read your story for "The Dummies". 

 


Bavafa

Those who may downplay the option 2.1…

by Bavafa on

Either have not study IRI or sticking their head in the sand and pretending no one can see them.

  

IRI has proven over and over that is willing and follow up with retaliatory actions.  Each retaliatory action might not have take place immediately or day after, but it has not been a matter of if but when.

  To expect that Iran to come under Israeli bombardment and they would just sit around like ducks , it is of grand hallucination or knowingly making a fool out of  people similar to what we saw per 2003 invasion of Iraq.

 

'Hambastegi' is the main key to victory 

Mehrdad


Esfand Aashena

Finally they're starting 2 take Iranian retaliation into account

by Esfand Aashena on

From another article on CNN:

But Iran has pledged a swift and powerful response to any attack, most likely through missile attacks on Israel.

"This may come in the shape of a large number of rockets and missiles fired from Iran itself, possibly also by Hezbollah and Hamas," Kam said.

According to Israeli military estimates, there are tens of thousands of short-range rockets that could be fired from Hezbollah-controlled southern Lebanon and the Hamas-ruled Gaza Strip, while a much smaller number of long-range missiles could be launched from Iran.

"The whole of Israel is vulnerable," Israeli Deputy Prime Minister Dan Meridor warned recently. "They are not just going to hit Israeli soldiers. The main aim is at civilian populations."

And an unsuccessful attack could further tarnish the reputation of an Israeli military that came under severe criticism at home following its 2006 war with Hezbollah. Hezbollah claimed victory after that conflict and enjoyed a surge in regional popularity, while Israeli commanders came under fire for being inadequately prepared for the fight.

"During the operation, one needs to take into account that it may fail, that targets will not be destroyed and that a large number of Israeli planes would be taken down," Kam said.

http://www.cnn.com/2012/03/09/world/meast/israel-attack-risk-benefits/index.html?hpt=hp_t3 

Everything is sacred


Esfand Aashena

Dummies for Dummies!

by Esfand Aashena on

Perhaps others didn't show up because they thought this blog is about dummies and if show up it'll be an admission!  That's ok, there will be never any shortage of scenarios or analyses on Iran! 

As for the iPad it takes a little while getting used to it and I can tell because you're comment is full of extra spaces that you don't feel like correcting because it can be a pain.  Once you get used to it, it'll be like a PC and easier to type. 

Everything is sacred


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dear esfand Ashna

by darius on

 I am sorry to disappoint you and being the only dummy to write some 

K......se sher about Iran and Iran politics.

I am sure the people you are expecting comment from busy analysing the situation and soon will join you.

 

P.S. How di dyou know , I have a nwe IPAD, wow, you are scary


Esfand Aashena

Books for dummies series!

by Esfand Aashena on

Perhaps I should've mentioned that the title is based on the books for dummies series where you can buy, read and learn about all kinds of stuff from a book by dummy series, in this case Scenarios for Dummies! 

Anyway darius seems like you're using an iPad for the first time or so and are having a hard time typing or using its keyboard!  And also you're throwing in whatever you've learned about politics and Iranian politics randomly and using words like Russia, China, veto, IRI, Arabs, etc.!

That's ok, thanks for reading and commenting.  Tonight I heard from the previous Mosad Chief on CBS news.  This Sunday there will be a full report and a good chance to see another view. 

Ex-Mossad chief: Iran rational; don't attack now

He talks about Iranian retaliations as well.  Bottom line attacking Iran is not like eating pashmak! 

Everything is sacred


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response from another dummy

by darius on

For Israel or America to attack Iran with less headache, Syria, Hezboalah and Hamas  must be neutralized.

Israelis an dAmerrican for the last decade have been using Iran neighbouring countries such as Azarbaijan, Caspian sea and Persian Gulf countries to build a strong intellignece hub and they are doing as much as they can and spending  lots of bribes to local to facilitate any attack by using their airfields and or use their ethnic relationship with Iranian to facilitate the breaking down of Iran.

Israelis are  directly involved in helping any and recruiting any one that give a bit of help.

Making a bomb is not as easy as is said, the bomb has to be  tested

and having one or two bombs is not sufficient while you receive 200 in return.  Such a test will be detected immediately .Would IRI do such a stupid thing for  emame zaman yha hossein shaheed ya khomeini?

They are brutal (learned their lesson from Shah who acted weakly and  their partner in  crimes JM ,MKO ) but they know where they are standing militarily .

Israel has declared war on Iran and IRI is on notice, would there be

any retaliation? I think, they will because  as soon as the first bombs is dropped the  regime is facing  death if does not respond.

Does Russia and China will come to Iran help? I think not, but they

have realised America long term plan to box both country and use

India as a partner for any future  confrontation.They are showin gtheir first reaction by takin g a side on Syria but they can feel the noose getting  tighter and tighter.Too late buddies .

Does United Nation means anything is all these conflict? Not really, they have become a facilitators for those who can veto , when you hear the world world against IRI or similar is usually means those with veto power.( Imean com eon Bahrain, Saudia Arabia, JOrdan, Morroco, China ,Russia and Israel are not better than IRI)

All we think and we say is to comfort our own axiety and sense of curosity,any attack on Iran will be televised after the firs few hundred targets are hit and responses are gauged.We are just  giving ourselves headache .

in any case IRI  will be guilty and will be declared the culprit with bombs or no bombs.

 

Listen to tiger Lilies( late tiger lilies)