Islamic Republic and Ahmadi in particular think they can model their foreign policy based on their domestic policies.
A little while ago I wrote a blog about Islamic Republic’s Highly Advanced Negotiation Techniques during the Iraq-Iran war where in 1988 they signed the same UN resolution that was available to them in 1986 and then later in 1987. In between they lost the Fao and Majnoon Islands and Saddam fired his infamous missile attacks on Iranian cities which wreaked havoc throughout Iran.
Now this week in 2010 Iran and North Korea are singled out as two countries where US is taking exceptions in their new nuclear treaty with Russia. Keep in mind that in 2009 US for the first time joined 5 + 1 group in direct negotiations with Iran.
The common Islamic Republic’s wisdom is to talk tough and act like a school yard bully showing off their home made sticks and sling shots! Why? Because they claim if they play “soft” and give US an inch they’ll take a mile! How logical. How has that worked out so far? Any progress in better international relations?
In the past 2 weeks, Japan, South Korea and China the 3 largest Iranian oil importers have either drastically reduced or abandoned their purchases all together. Japan seems to no longer buying oil from Iran and they used to have 30% of Iran’s oil market. One by one they are losing what is left of the big countries they can deal with.
Every now and then they talk of “good news” in the nuclear area. Good news! People of the world, listen! Yes listen! Good news! No make it goodest news!
In the international arena no one chops onion leaves for Iran! No one cares how tough Iran talks. It comes across as just being annoying dictators wanting to treat the world like they treat their own citizens, brutal crackdown with impunity. Unlike Iran where they can silence people with brutal force, they can’t do squat with the world.
The way I read the new nuclear treaty’s exception on Iran is that if there is a nuclear attack somewhere in America, they’ll try to link it to Iran and manufacture evidence if need be and blame Iran and launch nuclear attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities and more if it gets escalated. Just like they did with Iraq and 9/11.
While Iran is thinking asymmetric warfare (read asinine :-) and trying to draw US into a war where they can plant their IEDs and have a long dragged on war, Obama has already told them he has no intention of going to war with them when he has two other wars that he is trying to wind down. Iran prides in having a "cold war with US" where in reality they are like that old Iranian story where this dude wanted to marry the most beautiful girl in town by claiming he loves and wants her so 50% of the problem is solved!
So in essence Obama is telling the Islamic Republic that keep talking crap. Keep it up! Consider Ahmadi’s biggest foreign policy achievement the Iran exception in the new treaty.
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