Leaky Axis

Blow to U.S. and Israel's hopes for a new anti-Iranian alliance

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Leaky Axis
by Juan Cole
09-Dec-2010
 

Iran is winning and Israel is losing. That is the startling conclusion we reach if we consider how things have changed in the Middle East in the two years since most of the WikiLeaks State Department cables about Iran’s regional difficulties were written. Lebanon’s Sunni prime minister, once a virulent critic, quietly made his pilgrimage to the Iranian capital last week. Israeli hopes of separating Syria from Iran have been dashed. Turkey, once a strong ally of Israel, is now seeking better relations with Iran and with Lebanon’s Shiites.
 
Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri’s visit to Iran was in part an attempt to reach out to a major foreign patron of his country’s Shiite Hezbollah Party. Hariri’s father, Rafiq, was mysteriously blown to kingdom come in 2005, and a United Nations tribunal is now rumored to be leaning toward implicating Hezbollah. Many Lebanese are terrified that the tribunal’s findings might set Kalashnikovs clattering again in Beirut, given that the Hariris are Sunni Muslims linked to Saudi Arabia, and their followers could attack Lebanese Shiites in reprisal. Lebanon, a small country of 4 million, is more than a third Shiite, but Christians and Sunni Muslims have formed the political elite for two centuries.
 
Hariri’s consultations with the ayatollahs in Tehran were an attempt to seek Iranian help in keeping Hezbollah militiamen in check (many Lebanese Shiites look to Iran as their external patron, just as many Sunnis look to Saudi Arabia and Christians to France and the U.S.). The talks also aimed at reconfirming Iranian pledges of economic aid to Beirut. In return, according to one anonymous Iranian source who spoke to Agence France-Presse, Hariri would throw his support behind Iran’s “development of nuclear capabilities for civilian and peaceful purposes.”
 
If true, it is a 180 degree turn. According to The New York Times, an August 2006 cable reports that Saad Hariri had said that “Iraq was unnecessary” but “Iran is necessary,” and that the U.S. “must be willing to go all the way if need be” to halt Iran’s nuclear enrichment program, should negotiations prove fruitless. As late as March 2008, according to another leaked cable published on the Al-Akhbar newspaper website, Lebanon’s Minister of Defense Elias Murr, a Christian, passed along advice on how the Israelis could effectively fight Hezbollah without alienating the Christian Lebanese, as Tel Aviv had with its bombing of the Christian north in 2006. (Murr now disputes the account in the cable.)
 
Not only has Hariri radically altered his discourse about Iran, but he has made an even more incredible turnaround regarding Iran’s best friend, Syria. In the past two years, President Michel Sleiman and Hariri have energetically sought a rapprochement with Syria, one of Hezbollah’s patrons. They sought to repair ties with Damascus that had been badly damaged by Beirut’s accusations that Syria backed the assassination of Rafiq Hariri, which had led to massive anti-Syrian demonstrations and the withdrawal of Syrian troops from Lebanon. Hariri now says he was wrong to accuse Damascus. The growing influence in Lebanon of Syrian strongman Bashar al-Assad has alarmed the Obama administration.
 
Likewise, during the past two years, Turkey has increasingly offered Lebanon its coat strings as a rising Middle Eastern regional power. Ankara and Beirut have concluded a treaty creating a free trade zone between the two countries, which Turkey hopes to expand to Syria and Jordan. In sharp contrast to the ambivalence of Lebanon’s own Sunnis and Christians, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan came to Beirut on Nov. 23 and warned Israel, “If you invade Lebanon and Gaza using the most modern tanks and you destroy schools and hospitals, don’t expect us to be silent about it. We will not be silent, but will support what is right.” Erdogan also defended Hezbollah from rumors that it had itself been implicated in the elder Hariri’s assassination, saying that “no one could imagine” that the organization, which called itself Lebanon’s “spirit of resistance,” had been involved in the killing.

Turkey’s defense of Hezbollah tracked with Ankara’s improved relations with Iran itself. Turkey attempted to run interference at the United Nations Security Council for Iran’s nuclear enrichment program. When the council voted to ratchet up economic sanctions on Iran on June 9, Turkey and Brazil voted against the measure, while Lebanon abstained.
 
From 2005 through 2006, Iran appeared to be on the retreat in the eastern Mediterranean. Pro-Western Sunnis and Christians took over in Beirut. Syria was expelled from Lebanon and there was talk of detaching it from Iran. The powerful generals of Turkey, a NATO member and ally of Israel, were reliably anti-Iranian. Now, Hariri is a supplicant in Tehran, Syria is again influential in Beirut, and a Turkey newly comfortable with Islam has emerged as a regional power and a force for economic and diplomatic integration of Iran and Syria into the Middle East. Iran’s political breakthroughs in the region have dealt a perhaps irreparable blow to the hopes of the United States and Israel for a new anti-Iranian axis in the region that would align Iran’s Arab and other neighbors with Tel Aviv.

First published in Informed Comment.

 
AUTHOR
Juan Cole, the Richard P. Mitchell Collegiate Professor of History at the University of Michigan, maintains the blog Informed Comment. His most recent book, just out in paperback, is “Engaging the Muslim World.” 

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norooz

Hear them from an Auschwitz survivor.

by norooz on


Sargord Pirouz

Bavafa, there are multiple writers at "Fred"

by Sargord Pirouz on

The one that makes regular comments here on the IC is particularly nasty. I've identified this writer as "Fred" writer type C. 


Sargord Pirouz

Simorgh

by Sargord Pirouz on

Simorgh, I pointed that out because the people at "Fred" are always depicting Iranians inside Iran as being against their government's support of the Lebanese and Palestinians. The poll shows otherwise.

As for Zionism, we very often do not see polling here in the US on the matter.

And as far as I'm concerned, I don't go around conflating the cause against Zionism with a cause against the government of the Unites States. That would be anti-America, which I in no way endorse. But the folks at "Fred" are perfectly willing to conflate their two endorsed causes, pro-Zionism and anti-Iran. So are you, Simorgh.


Bavafa

Frederik: "cite my exact words "

by Bavafa on

You wouldn't recognize your exact words if it hit you in the head?  One possible reason would be  that it may not have written by you and you are here only to spread the material.

Look at the few comments below and you will see words out of your own blog.

At least others such as mahmoodg have the backbone to own their own words.

Mehrdad


Sargord Pirouz

Fred: Haji, Islamist, lobbyist, rabid. etc.

by Sargord Pirouz on

Ever wonder why whenever the folks at "Fred" disagree with someone, they always resort to this kind of insipid name calling? Personally, I think it's because they're insecure about their abilities to debate and even discuss in a civil manner. Perhaps they even recognize the weakness of their cause. 

Or they're just plain childish... 


Fred

Haji sack of Islamist liar

by Fred on

Haji sack of Islamist liar has to cite my exact words and not his usual Islamist spin to my words.

 

After all being a NIOC nuke lobbyist for the Islamist Rapist does give him the facilities to lobby for his Islamist Rapist brethrens; however, it does not give him the right to put words in my mouth.

 

BTW, President of U.S. as well as many others accuse your Islamist Rapist buddies of going for weaponized nuke. Also your Islamist rapist buddies are in violation of international law over their nuke business, ergo the sanctions.

 Now go write another nonsensical write-up trying to absolve your Islamist Rapist brethren’s weaponized nuke.

Ps. did you get the message about appearing on the Great Satan’s propaganda outlet which you badmouth all the time and not wearing suits two size larger, tilting your head and speaking succinctly?


Mammad

Just about now

by Mammad on

Freddo Coreleon jumps to respond. Hay, do not blame him, that is his life: being on 24/7 alert to attack everyone in a life with zero achievement; that is, of course, if you do not count his advocacy of sanctions, war, destruction, misery, hatred, and prejudice as achievements.

 

Mammad


Mammad

Let's see what Freddo Coreleon says

by Mammad on

Wikileaks, Arabs, and Iran:

The same prophet of war, hatred, destruction, and prejudice, known as Freddo Coreleon, who attacks "Islamists" every day, now pretends that the corrupt Arab rulers are somehow enlightened, not "Islamist" anymore!

These rulers - all dictators and corrupt - by their very actions and rule and alliance with the U.S. - feed radicalism in their nations. These rulers have made Ahmadinejad very popular in their own lands. Look at Saudi Arabia: It is a dictatorship far far worse than IRI; its Wahhabis and Salafis the ideologues of terrorism, and its citizens and particularly women having no rights. Yet, Freddo Coreleon wants us to believe that, suddenly, these are the good guys, the good Muslims! And why? Because they agree with him that Iran must be attacked. Hay, end justifies the means. Use anyone to advocate war, destruction, sanction, hatred, misery and prejudice against Iran and Iranians, even if what you use are the same "Islamists" that you viciously attack everyday!

Giving source and links:

The same Freddo Coreleon who lies every single day about Iran's nuclear program:

lie 1: calling it illegal;

lie 2: calling it weaponized;

lie 3: saying that Iran has violated the NPT;

lie 4: always implying that there is actually evidence for a nuclear weapon program,

without EVER giving a SINGLE reference to a credible source, such as IAEA reports or UNSC Resolutions, demands sources from another commentator, and then attacks the "Islamists," not seeing the contradiction in his posts: Referring to Arab rulers as wanting attack on Iran, and then attacking "Islamists." So, the Arab rulers are not "Islamist" anymore? They are now enlightened?

When one is willing to carry water for AIPAC, and advocate their lines on Iran word by word, line by line, and is willing to take side with anyone and any group to advocate sanctions, war, destruction, misery, hatred, and prejudice, the result is one Freddo Coreleon. The imbecile thinks that just because he does not use the words "war" and "military attacks," people are fooled. The imbecile uses "material support for the people of Iran" everyday, yet he pretend that people do not understand what he says, or that he really does not mean war, because he has never defined what he means by "material support" - read bombs and missiles rained on Iran and Iranians. 

Mammad


Demo

Lost in Translation "Abarmard"

by Demo on

The arbitrary English translation of "Abarmard" which actually mean "The Greatest Man of All" is "The Most Opportunistic of All" by its abuser!!


Demo

Lost in Translation "Abarmard"

by Demo on

The arbitrary English translation of "Abarmard" which actually mean "The Greatest Man of All" is "The Most Opportunistic of All" by its abuser!!


Abarmard

Survivor

by Abarmard on

Have you watched the show "survivor"?

Politics is no different. You must play your game well and align with right people to vote out those who are the threat. In this game past history of who was doing what when the scenario and landscape was different goes under the dust. 

Don't be surprised to see US on Iranian side or Russia changing sides depending of how some policies turn out. Smart ones are living in "now" while planning for future. Iran is doing well in that regard.

Survivor is a great show!


Veiled Prophet of Khorasan

Supporting Palestinians

by Veiled Prophet of Khorasan on

 

Does not mean wanting to send your money to them. Nor risking our security. What is means is that they feel for them. So what? I used to feel for them too. Of course that will change as IRI uses Hizbolah to murder demonstrators.

Both Lebanese Hizoblah and Palestinians are stupid. They bite the hand of Iranians. They side with Saddam. They murder innocent Iranians. Therefore this support will not remain. Just as my support vanished. They are their own greatest enemy.


masoudA

Wikileaks

by masoudA on

is a mis-info campaign by .......????   I am surprised nobody here doubt the legitimacy of all this........Older Iranians remember vey well how these Zed-Ettellat campaign work - they feed you 80% irrelevant but True material mixed in with 20% lies that are very significant.   Common folks - learn about the famous "Seddan Documents" fiasco in Iran - during the mossadegh era - some claimed to have found several bags of evidence from the celler of a house belonging to an aleged foreign spy named Seddan - and they released some interesting but irrelevant facts......then they started to devastate some great nationalist Iranians - based on documents which had alegedly been found amongst Seddan documents. 

So far the biggest lie/mis-info coming out of wikileaks regarding Iran has been the lie about Arabs wanting IR bombed.   Arabs love the Islamic Republic - because they hate Iran and Iranians.   Assange will go away but wikileaks will hang arpound for ever - Be on the lookout for more BS.   Also look out for those who promote and disseminate wikileaks.


Simorgh5555

Sargord

by Simorgh5555 on

Well, "Fred", a solid majority of Iranians
inside Iran support their government's support of the Palestinians and
Lebanese, about 70% to 30%. 

Your opinion is very much in the minority in Iran. That makes your view contrary to the will of a solid majority of Iranians.

But that's no surprise. You're anti-Iran.

You self-contradicting hypocrite. By your rationale the overwhelming majority of Americans support Israel including many of their military campaigns  and therefore your failure to suppor the policies of your country makes you anti-American


Bavafa

Are you talking about Avigdor Lieberman

by Bavafa on

بله ایشون هر صحبتی‌ که میکنن از پاین در میاد، شما درست میفرمایید

much like his followers on IC. 

Mehrdad


default

shame Shame

by Doctor mohandes on

Vaghean ke Khejalat dare...

 


Fred

با شیر اندرون شد و با جان بدر شود

Fred


عینهو رهبرانشان، همه کون و مکان برای حضرات هار به پایین تنه ختم میشود. حق هم دارند، برای آنان این طرز دیدن مسائل با شیر اندرون شد و با جان بدر شود.


Bavafa

"Rabid Islamist Palestinian" & "loutish language" reminds me of

by Bavafa on

آخوند منو پند میداد، خودش میرفت کون میداد

این آقا فرد، مثل خری که تو گّل گیر کرده باشه، هرچی‌ تقلا می‌زنه بیشتر فرو میره

 

 

Mehrdad


Q

FredCo: Juan Cole is paid lobbyist for IR

by Q on

That is the only message that comes through, if anyone is willing to put themselves through the torture of parsing FredCo's increasingly incoherent gibbrish.

What's the definition of "rabid" ? Just read 3 paragraphs of FredCo, you'll understand!


Sargord Pirouz

Well, "Fred", a solid

by Sargord Pirouz on

Well, "Fred", a solid majority of Iranians inside Iran support their government's support of the Palestinians and Lebanese, about 70% to 30%. 

Your opinion is very much in the minority in Iran. That makes your view contrary to the will of a solid majority of Iranians.

But that's no surprise. You're anti-Iran. 


MOOSIRvaPIAZ

rabid neocon war advocate Fred

by MOOSIRvaPIAZ on

What more proof do you need than your daily blog calling for airtight sanctions? Airtight sanctions is an act of war.

 

 

khodeti...


Fred

Rabid Islamists, use it at home only

by Fred on

Given the rabid Islamist Palestinian crop dusters prefer to speak in the loutish language they have been taught at home, it would be better for them to forego using it publicly and use it at home only.

Again, the freeloading rabid Islamist Palestinian crop dusters need to take a reading comprehension class. And of course, start earning a living, mooching off Iranians is enough.


Roozbeh_Gilani

Dave Cole jan, I want some of the stuff you've been smoking...

by Roozbeh_Gilani on

before writing this article.

I want a complete escape from this nasty real world. I want to live in this world of fantacy you are residing at, where the value of my house in southern california has gone up by 200% since 2008! 

"Personal business must yield to collective interest."


Veiled Prophet of Khorasan

Shushtari Jan

by Veiled Prophet of Khorasan on

 

The Lebanese are a diverse culture. The ones who kiss Akhoond butt are Bizbollahi. They get billions of dollars to do it. Not that surprising if you asked me! There are plenty of prostitutes who kiss more than that for less money :-)

My worry is the use of Lebanese goons in murdering Iranian proterstors. Now that is far worse than Hariri or any other internal Lebanese matter. The Hizbollahi in Iran are going to in time be lyunched by mobs of angry Iranians.


Fred

Rabid Islamist crop dusters

by Fred on

When the sacks of Islamist Palestinian crop duster liars accuse someone of anything, they better back it up with citing the exact words of the person they accuse.

 

Given Persian and English are not their mother tongue, the sack of Islamist Palestinian crop duster liars need to take reading comprehension classes.

 BTW, they need to get a job and stop mooching off Iranian people.


Bavafa

Ahhh, speaking of motives

by Bavafa on

One wonders what is the motive behind calling for war on your own home land (assuming Fred is Iranian of course) in a two-blog-a-day propaganda by our Fred?

Of course he has claimed that he has never done so, but as they say in Farsi

آدم دروغگو فراموش کارهام میشه

//iranian.com/main/blog/fred/no-sanctions-2010

"If the answer is anything short of war and to avoid it, regime change, then not only such sanctions would be frivolous, they would be criminal. "

Mehrdad


shushtari

one other thing....

by shushtari on

it's pretty pathetic that the lebanese are willing to kiss the butt of the mullahs, despite the fact that the syrians and the mullahs were likely behind hariri's murder 


choghok

The author forgot the following

by choghok on

1. According to Wikileaks almost all of the arab countries in the middle east wants US to attack Iran.

2. The same Hariri did not meet Ahmaghinejad when he was in Lebanon to see his stooges.

3. Lebanon did not oppose further sanctions on Iran in UN.

4. Turkey and arab states follow UN sanctions on Iran.

5. Iran and India have lost good relations since long time a go and India did not vote against further sanctions either, Khamenei answered by comparing Kashmir people with Palestinians.

6. Iran lost a seat in womens rights delegation of UN to "east timor" since other asian countries voted for east timor. 

So the author does not want to see the whole picture but just look at the facts that prove his point.


Fred

The required tilt

by Fred on

The fact that the author has chosen to regard the-paid for with hard cash-winnings of IRR, the Islamist Rapist Republic, as “blows” to the sane world says more about the motives of the author than the reality on the ground.

Had he bothered to mention IRR’s setbacks, among many others, with Russia and China,

Had he bothered to mention the eighteen and half billion, with the B, in dollars and gold bullion handed over by IRR to the fellow ruling Islamists in Turkey,

Had he bothered to mention the Wikileaks info in regards to Turkey’s Islamist PM, Agha Rajab’s secret personal bank accounts,

 

Had he bothered to mention the incredible bluntness of Arabs against IRR,And many other likewise available data, he could have been counted as an impartial analyst.

 

However, being a board member of the NIAC lobby does require certain tilt, which he seems to fully comply with.


Escape

Actually Juan Cole is a disinformed blabbermouth

by Escape on

 But then again disinformed blabbermouths have been busy at work when it comes to Iraq

 

 //iraqthemodel.blogspot.com/2004/12/answers-and-clarifications.html