The Real Situation in Iran

A general, nationwide strike is the most appropriate tactic now

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The Real Situation in Iran
by Reza Fiyouzat
25-Jun-2009
 

In the fog of the swift repression that followed the Iranian elections, and intensified in some American 'leftist' corners by commentaries about a CIA-led coup by the Mousavi camp (whereas the real coup, as described by Sahimi among others, was going the other way), a very elementary question has been completely lost sight of:

Since the Iranian authorities are so wonderfully efficient and super speedy at vote counting -- so much so, that they could announce the full results of tens of millions of votes in less than two hours after the closing of polling stations -- then, surely they could have just taken one, more, day, and counted all the votes one more time, just to make sure; with different campaigns' representatives present, etc., no?

Hell, if they really wanted to, they could hold a whole new election in just one more day, and be done with the results by the end of the day!

Yeah, I know. That's just an insane idea! Far better to just attack peaceful demonstrators in the streets, shoot and kill people and precipitate a huge and uncontrollable crisis of legitimacy.

Here's another good one. The Press TV's man was being grilled by the BBC's anchorman about the report of the irregularities (in more than 50 cities) that the Interior Ministry had just released, and the Press TV man was adamant that they were not 'irregularities', but rather, he reminded in the language of the ministry, 'statistical miscalculations'. Interesting choice of words. For, you see, vote counting falls within the realm of arithmetic, and mostly one function of it only; you know, adding up (the votes). Statistics, on the other hand, falls within the realm of predictions (of trends). So, they are actually saying that the announced results were basically predictions they made, and very optimistically wishful ones at that, of how the voters in different localities could have, would have, or might have voted!

* * *

The situation on the streets of Iran, to get back to reality, has moved far beyond bean counting, and increasingly more radical slogans are raised on the streets. This has got the system seriously worried; hence their extreme crackdown.

The larger political questions are enormous. Most essentially, how clear is the strategic vision here, and how foresightful can this spontaneously erupted movement be? Let us not lose sight of the fact that the people took to the streets as a result of an unexpected insult of an 'outcome' of a sham election they willingly participated in. That makes for a highly contradictory movement. These contradictions cannot last long without some serious consequences. The more radical and more clear-sighted of the Iranian working classes have harbored very few illusions regarding this system's capability for being reformed in any meaningful way.

So, the spark for the movement came from a politically ambiguous place; but the insult was great enough to spark a big reaction. And, when people who have been enduring a harsh dictatorship finally take to the streets, there are a whole lot of stored-up-in-pressure-cooker grievances that will come pouring out. Hence, the dynamic situation.

As I have said before, here were the people in their millions willing to play along with the fantasy that the system could be reformed, ever so slightly, all of it within the theocratic setup. All they were asking for was that the government take its own propaganda seriously, and respect the 'Republic' part of the Islamic Republic of Iran, and additionally give them some slack on the 'Islamic' part. They were even willing to use the system's own tools (the fraudulent voting procedures), with all their faults, in order to very politely request some minor changes. No radical demands at all. Quite conservative, in fact.

And when even that was not only withheld, but an actual electoral coup was organized and carried out in broad daylight, in order to forever block any idea of the possibility of ANY change, or any talk of change ... well, the people had to see things clearly, since there was no other way of seeing things.

And still, in case it was unclear, came the final nail in the head from Khamenei, in the now-infamous address in his first post-elections Friday prayer sermon, in which he defended the election results as absolutely fair, claiming that the 'nation' had a perfect electoral system, in which, he claimed in no uncertain terms, "it is absolutely impossible to cheat."

[As mentioned above, The Interior Ministry did later admit to 'some' 'irregularities', to the tune of three million votes.]

In that address, Khamenei did a lot; by putting a stamp of absolute approval on the electoral coup, he practically changed the ruling system. But also, he reminded the 'nation', in case they had forgotten, that he himself was in fact the absolute ruler, the final arbiter of all matters personal and political, and that was that. His speech and mannerism and general rhetorical posture were replete with indications that Ahmadinejad is actually nothing but his puppet. And, of course, Khamenei also cleared the way for the brutal crackdown by the shock-troopers and all the other 'legal' means at the disposal of the Iranian state's machinery of oppression.

That made things boldly and doubly-lucidly unambiguous. Which helped people to see the ball, not just in their court, but coming fast at them, only a few feet away now, and it was a canon ball or a bomb, not a ball. As a result, the more radical voices are coming out and raising sharper slogans.

Most significantly, the Iranian people have not been shaken or intimidated too much by the vicious and cowardly attacks by the state's machinery of oppression: a methodical intimidation machine with knife wielding thugs to disrupt peaceful mass demonstrations and create chaos and mayhem (the first round of deaths were mostly by knife wounds), with snipers shooting at people in the streets below, with black uniformed, stick wielding motorcycle gangs running at people, with government goons ransacking university student dorms, killing scores and taking countless students to secret prisons, with government-provided ambulances delivering the dead and the injured to unknown locations.

Most of the 'reformist' 'leaders' are absent, silenced, cowed, or else cutting deals behind the scenes, yet people are moving on their own. Which is a good development. People, en masse, have to come to see that the 'reformists' are actually a part of their problems, if we are to have some fundamental changes in the long term.

More increasingly, there are people raising the slogan of 'Death to Khamenei', indicating the emergence of more radical segments of the population -- as opposed to 'Death to the dictator', which Mousavi supporters voice, maintaining their ambiguity toward the 'Dear Leader', Khamenei, at least for now. And, as a result, we have seen reports -- from the streets of Iran, as well as from demonstrations abroad in London and Paris, for example -- of Mousavi's people trying to put a leash (preferably a heavy lid) on any alternative, more radical opposition voices.

Meanwhile, more militant labor unions, having struggled for their most basic rights for the entirety of the life of the Islamic 'Republic', were quick to come out in support of the people's movement and in defense of people's rights; even though most of them had boycotted the elections. These unionists, throughout the years, have consistently and correctly characterized any participation in sham elections as legitimating the system. But, as true radicals throughout history have done, they understand deeply the necessity of solidarity and they are standing with the people, supporting their demands for fairness, and in absolute and unambiguous opposition to the criminal state violence.

Iranian people's movement is also creating its own publications in abundance. We have already seen how an entire generation has turned into street journalists using the electronic means at their disposal. But, traditional platforms for political news and analysis, such as newspapers (in hard copy and cyber forms), are also spreading fast. One of the more inspiring ones is Khiaban (The Street), which has already had (I think) five issues published and distributed, both online and hard copies on the streets. It has a definite left wing approach, with connections to the labor, the students and the women's movements.

Another innovative publication is dedicated to identifying (and spreading news of the identities of) the plainclothes undercover thugs who have been attacking the people. These thugs have been knifing people, using chains and brass knuckles, separating individuals from the demonstrations, taking them to back alleys and doing their business, in the most cowardly fashion. And now people are coming up with their own defense.

But, if this is to remain a mass movement, the immediate task is to respond to the state oppressive crackdown in creative ways that further the political struggle by changing the dynamic of the unfolding events. I think a general, nationwide strike is the most appropriate tactic now. Since the security forces are occupying the streets in huge numbers, by simply refusing to come out at all, by staying home, by not going to work, to classes, by making the streets look ghost-like, by bringing the country to a virtual halt and preventing the business-as-usual to get back on track, such a move can be a most effective psychological, as well as a political, tactical victory.

But, of course, going by the increasing number of lines of demarcation emerging, on the one hand between the secularists and the system's supporters, and on the other between the two factions of the ruling elite and their respective followers among the people, it will be anybody's guess what the next move will be.

But, one thing is for sure. The Islamic Republic of Iran, in its current militaristic-repressive formation and at this historical moment, has very little if any legitimacy for an absolute majority of the Iranian people. That is a fact now, and will not change. And that is thanks to the daring move made by a people who took to the streets, even though they were misled and delusional about the possibilities for real change within the existing system. Just goes to show how quickly the political dynamics can change, as soon as the people rise up and enter the arena. They had had it up to their ears with oppression, with arbitrary intrusions of the state and their murderous ways, and they decided to pave their own way out of that hell.

On June 26, people around the world will be standing in solidarity with the Iranian people's movement for justice. Please join them and show your brotherly and sisterly love.

Reza Fiyouzat can be reached at: rfiyouzat@yahoo.com. He keeps a blog at: //revolutionaryflowerpot.blogspot.com/

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Jaleho

Roshanbeen, you asked

by Jaleho on Sat Jun 27, 2009 09:35 AM PDT

"1) Why election results was announced in such rush? How could they hand count 45,000,000 vote in less than 12 hours?"

Mousavi announced himself the winner, 4 hours before Ahmadinejad did so, that is, RIGHT AFTER the closed they stations, you don't seem to have a preoblem with that, do you?! Concerning the election process, the statistics of votes, the possibility of counts, realistic estimates of time from the morning when they started on different polling stations, and many many other questions and false and hasty accusations, I have already answered in my blog, with over 250 back and forth argumets, you can refere to that:

//iranian.com/main/blog/jaleho/iranians-won-big

 On why Khamenei did not announce an annulment, I will also save my breath and copy my answer to Mr. Yassari's similar question:

"There has been an election, a winner has won with a 2:1 margin in a monumental healthy turnout of 40 million people where for the first time a 13 million youth, a large number of them from the important city of Tehran have overwhelmingly voted for the candidate which CLEARLY LOST THE COUNTRY, but WON THE CITY OF TEHRAN and Northern Tehran,  Shemiranat. 

The sore loser, Mousavi, instead of representing his vast following of 13 million and their legitimate rights (for example women who massively followed him), abuses the youth for his and his wife's personal injured ago, and the dirty fights of one religious faction with another.

The westerm powers who have been working hard to defeat Iranian regime and aspirations for thirty years, in particular the present president whom they find hard to bribe for four years, and try to abuse the healthy oppoistion of youth to one of their typical "color revolution," which BTW faded even in the first two that they were successful. Mousavi, hoping that he can pull out a Victor Yushchenko for himself, is too stupid to realize that he can't even hope for a general strike for the obvious reason: all the workers who run the economy of the country, VOTED FOR AHMADINEJAD, and they wouldn't heed to any Mousavi call for a strike!

Now, just because frustrated youth who pour out, thinking that they won (because everyone they know in Tehran voted just like them), and just because some powerful clerics see their faction is being in danger, and because the west is hoping to change a "twitter and CNN revolution" to an outright 1953 coup, you think the vote of 40 million Iranians should be cancelled??!!

Why? Because Wolf Ze'ev Blitzer, Abass Milani, Rudi Bakhtiya and Sadjadpour and facebook friends organize thousands of Iranian expats  in western countries against the will of 40 million Iranian?! Many of Iranians in the west are Shais who don't even believe in elections in Iran. 

If the election were nulled, then you would have seen million of workers having a strike and asking for their votes! The same way that two days after the original riots in Tehran, you saw massive number of Ahmadinejad supporters poured in the streets in a counter demonstration. CNN did not show that one 1/100 as much as the orginal demonstartion which were shown ad nauseam, but YOU SAW IT FOR SURE, as much as you want to forget that you saw it, didn't you?

Had poor Michael Jackson died three weeks ago instead of now, Mr. "Sadjadpoors" would not have been able to wear their green ties in CNN, and lead a "twitter and CNN revolution" among the Iranian expats who really dislike Ahmadinejad's hairdo, and with a passion I might add!! "


 


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Ostaad

Jaleho, the magic words are...

by Ostaad on Fri Jun 26, 2009 11:50 PM PDT

"Bazaris, and the factory workers", and I'd like to add the oil industry workers to the list of essential ingredients to change the current regime in Iran. Throughout the current events, I have been watching for any sign of work stoppage or total strikes among those groups. I strongly believe until those events happen, the present system will continue. I do believe Mousavi has no capability to "lead" the change movement that has started to take shape in Iran, and the only reason Mousavi's name is even mentioned by the demonstrators is they are searching for a unifying factor and Mousavi is a convenient tool to give the movement some semblance of having a rallying point, nothing more.

Regarding your opinion that the current movement consists of "some" frustrated university kids, and this is a "twitter revolt", I don't agree with you assessment at all. There are many more layers of discontent about this movement which cuts across educational level and social/economic class. I have seen no evidence, and I doubt you can provide any either, that the workers and the bazaris as a whole voted for Ahamdinejad.

I'd be happy to read your data that support that claim.

BTW, your gibe at the university students quitting their "jobs" did not escape me.  One thing the university students don't have are jobs, and that has not changed since the Shah's times.


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Jaleho

by Roshanbeen (not verified) on Fri Jun 26, 2009 09:43 PM PDT

I hope you are right and Mr.Ahmadinejad uses his second term to improve Iran both internally and internationally.

Since, you are the only one I know who is celeberating Mr.A-N's triumph. Allow me to ask you few questions that have been puzzling me since june/12
1) Why election results was announced in such rush? How could they hand count 45,000,000 vote in less than 12 hours?
2)Why didn't they follow the protocols of election which calls for 3 day waiting period before announcing the final winner?
3)Why did Mr.Khamanie declared AN winner, declared no fraud in election process, no recount , no annulment even before Guardian council had a chance to even look at the issues.

All the above smells like a rotten fish to me and I am sure to too many Iranians as well. They have every right to be upset and protest the results.

I think Republic is fading in Islamic Republic of Iran and that in turn will harm Islam.

peace


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default

Jaleho You are in Denial

by Mobarez (not verified) on Fri Jun 26, 2009 11:45 AM PDT

The overwhelming majority of reputable analysts are of the view that this election was a fraud and that this was a coup detat. Stop ignoring this fact and please kindly stop your imaginary view of Iran and Iranians. You make these radical leaps, ignore facts and make outright false accusations to come to your inhuman support of IRI and Ahmadinejad.

Do you have family members in the Sepah? Maybe this could explain your outrageous statements.


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default

Most accurate read of the

by k09 (not verified) on Fri Jun 26, 2009 02:17 AM PDT

Most accurate read of the situation.

Here is Ahamdinejad with Mesbah talking about their goals not only for Iran but for the world.

//www.ireport.com/docs/DOC-279948

thank you. Keep up the good work.

How do we organize a general strike from abroad?


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default

Wishful thinking

by Mash Rajab (not verified) on Thu Jun 25, 2009 11:31 PM PDT

Lets consider the reality. The problem is that the vast majority of people favor IRI, believe it or not.That majority happens to be loyal mostly low class people. There is a big minority (maybe 20-30%)likes to make some major improvements to the system. There is also some 10% who oppose the whole system.
Remember how the populous Hamas government was thrown out? Well, that is not possible in Iran.
This is the flaw with democracy in middle east. Democracy has different metrics and principles in there.

I agree with the method Obama has chosen to deal with Iran.


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Jaleho

Dear Roshanbeen,

by Jaleho on Thu Jun 25, 2009 08:31 PM PDT

I agree that Ahmadinejad during the debates was too callous in ruffling the powerful factions within the establishment. He should have known that stinging Rafsanjani, or injuring Mousavi's ego or his wife's too violently, is going to have a huge backlash. There he went too far, too crude, and at times too unfair. He should have been more careful not to incite or help a civil strife.

However, the huge turnout following the debates, the openness of debates itself which ushered a new phase in Iran's maturation of democracy, thae crack it cause among factions, the fantastic show of frustrated youth who have clear personal demands yet gathered behind two candidates both of whom had similar strong foreign policy agenda re. nuclear rights and rapproachment to the US.....all of it opened the stage for fantastic gains internationally and internally.

Unfortunately, Mousavi instead of using the 13 million strong backing behind him to advance their demands via a coalition which could force the government to give some extensive rights for women for example (who were heavily supporting him)and put it into law, made it his personal case!!  He could have used this outpouring of people who don't like velayat faghih for example to demand limitation on the power of that institution....but Mousavi concentrated on himself and the injured ego of himself!

Although I believe that in the long run this revolt which delineates the demand of people for certain freedom is going to be very positive, and the opening of factional fights will bring out very positive changes, but unfortunately Mousavi's lack of plan in the short term is hurting Iran both internationally, and internally.

Already Iran's presence at G8 in Italy is cancelled, the students will see at least a temporary reversal in their rights, privacy and freedom, the women who fought so bravely will not get big immediate results. But, these events will make the achievements of these result in near future much more certain and more pronounced. In that, I agree that this is not the end, and it is a great thing that it is not the end, just the beginning. Where I disagree with you is that this beginning is not  the end of Ahmadinejad, quite the contrary! He will speed up his  proven great foreign policy, and these events will force him to improve the internal policies as well!!

Meanwhile, I will mark your words as you wanted me to, the revolt itself will continue to fade away. NO WORKER will heed to any of Mousavi's call, he will become a less and less important figure just as he deserves, and the tired youth will engage the more important things that is ahead of them: concours!!

 


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Jaleho

by Roshanbeen (not verified) on Thu Jun 25, 2009 06:11 PM PDT

You are MisCalculating, mark my word. This is not the end yet. Ahmadinejad and his crcle went toofar and they too miscalculated.


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default

jaleho....

by babakkhoramdin (not verified) on Thu Jun 25, 2009 06:08 PM PDT

you're pathetic.... people are dying and putting their lives on the line....and you're sitting behind you computer typing this crap that they "are rich kids who want to hold their girlfriends' hands!>>>>>"

Just accept the fact that your garbage of a regime is dying and will soon be kicked to hell


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Jaleho

David and Bijan called for a strike too!

by Jaleho on Thu Jun 25, 2009 05:07 PM PDT

So, I just repeat:

 David said:"Mr. Mousavi must either immediately and actively lead the movement to a general strike and a true non-violent civil disobedience with the goal of stopping the economic machine of the Islamic Republic..."

And Bijan agreed: "Your points well taken and I am whole heartedly in support of your call for General strike, or whatever it takes to bring the wheel of this criminal government to a screaching halt. "

-------------------------------- 

This is what happens when people think their personal feelings and the garbage that CNN and FOX feed them has a real base, and become totally delusional by fixating on Karim Sadjadpour and Abas Milan's green ties on American TV!!

Call for strike among who??!! There are some frustrated university kids and norther Tehran rich who legitimately are tired of not being able to hold their girlfriend's hands in public, going to parties in a normal fashion, or wearing a hot garbage in summer. Every election they get a chance to pour out their frustration, and this time a megalomaniac ass in the form of Mousavi and the injured ego of his wife with the help of foreign media are making a twitter revolt! And some rioters who are dime a dozen everywhere in the world are burning people's shop too. Yet, with ALL of the media hysteria to pull a Victor Yushchenko out of Mousavi and his hurt ego, they were not even able to create a 1/3 of a Rodney King RIOT!!

Mousavi has been dreaming of strike all along, but he knows well that those who actually run the economy of the country, the city workers, Bazaris, and the factory workers will never heed to his call for strike for a good reason: THOSE PEOPLE VOTED FOR Ahmadinejad!!

The university students can quit their "jobs" and shout for a while and CNN can blow it out of proportion, but even the students will get tired afetr a while and they ask their mommas for a hot chocolate and more sleep after few days!


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Humility

Dear Reza

by Humility on Thu Jun 25, 2009 02:38 PM PDT

I completely and wholeheartedly agree with you .. Please read this blog: A 'GENERAL' Strike - To Bring The Regime Down

There is no other way to bring down this regime - Let's hope it happens!

 

 


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David ET

concern:

by David ET on Thu Jun 25, 2009 02:37 PM PDT


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