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Game over
06-Dec-2007
The 2007 U.S. National Intelligence Estimate on Iran’s nuclear capability states that Iran stopped its quest of nuclear weapons in 2003. This revelation was in direct contradiction with the NIE from 2005 that had profiled Iran as country hellbent on acquiring nuclear weapons. If the earlier estimate was true, then what changed Iran’s mind to mothball the decision to seek nuclear weapons?
The genesis of the Iranian desire to seek atomic weaponry dates to the Iran-Iraq War, during which a weapon of mass destruction could have tilted the results of that conflict. That conflict also highlighted the strategic necessity for Iran to have a deterrence capability that can forestall yet another invasion from Iraq or any other quarter.
Interestingly, Saddam Hussein’s own bravado and ambiguous allusions to possessing an atomic capability in the years preceding the 2003 U.S. invasion, too, was based in part to get the Iranians to think that Iraq has nuclear weapons, thereby deterring Iran from a revenge-attack for the earlier war between the two countries. This paradigm of mutually-assured-destruction (or mistrust) continued until March 2003.
The U.S. invasion of Iraq in March 2003 and demise of the Saddam regime – coupled with finding no Iraqi atomic weapons – removed the very raison d’etre for the Iranian plans to seek nuclear weapons. But the disappearance of Saddam regime as Iran’s primary adversary was replaced conveniently with Israel as the source of existential anxiety for the Iranian regime. Even if Iran wanted to disband the development of nuclear weapons in Spring 2003 it was not quite ready as yet to do so.
In August 2003 came news and pictures of Iranian nuclear facilities that bore the hallmarks of an extensive enrichment activities. In October 2003, the IAEA’s inspection of Iran’s facilities produced evidence of highly enriched weapon grade uranium in one or two of its centrifuges. Iran explained the presence of that high grade material as something that was probably in the equipment that Iran had purchased from the nuclear merchants. The finger pointed to A.Q. Khan, the father of Pakistan’s atomic bomb, who and transacted nuclear technology with Iran, Libya and North Korea. In December 2003 Libya came clean about its clandestine nuclear program.
Iran, however, could not come clean like Libya, because it was heavily invested in the development of nuclear energy for power generation purposes. The obsolete behemoth nuclear power plant at Bushehr was a matter of prestige, as was the development of a fuel cycle for it and other future plants. This topped the list of urgent technological pursuits for the Iranian government and scientific community.
The problem with the pursuit of nuclear technology for peace and war is akin to the pursuit of pharmacology for medicine or chemical warfare. Once the knowledge is acquired, weaponization can follow. The trick is to eliminate the need for the use of nuclear weapons, not the knowledge-base. The first one is easy, the second one impossible.
Nothing in the U.S. approach to Iran or U.S. and U.N. sanctions changed Iran’s mind to mothball the nuclear weapons program. The fear that a Russian embargo on its nuclear cooperation with Iran would choke and even stop the very rudimentary Iranian efforts at understanding and mastering the atom for peaceful purposes. The calculation to stop the weapons program was a correct one – as it would permit Iran to gain access to some enrichment capability under the IAEA regime, to which it had every right.
This is the age of spin, if it is not the spinning of a centrifuge then the spinning of news. In the name of decency, however, President Bush ought to stop taking credit for Iran’s suspension of its nuclear weapons program. Given the bankrupt state of Bush Administration’s foreign policy, it is understandable that “Mighty Mouse” would want to take credit where it is not due: just like in Iraq – it is not the surge that is working, it is Iranian cooperation with the Iraqi government. If Iranians mothballed the nuke program, it was because they could not risk losing access to rest of the technology from Russia.
I suppose the Bush Administration should also take credit for the Doha Summit of the Gulf Cooperation Council, as a way for isolating Iran or curbing its ambitions in the Persian Gulf! It was not long ago when the Bush Administration was warning the Arab governments to beware of a nuclear Iran and its hegemonic tendency in the Persian Gulf. Translation: Buy more arms from the United States. Well, I guess, in light of the NIE 2007 that “scare” tactic has to be re-spun.
And while the Administration is at it, perhaps, it should explain how is Iran’s tendency in the Persian Gulf today and different that it was during the Shah: if that did not come to much in the long run, why should this one achieve anything? In my assessment, in the battle for the hearts and minds of the streets of the Middle East, a cooperating Iran is far greater danger to the U.S. interest than a non-cooperating Iran.
Meanwhile, someone has to develop an NIQ – national intelligence quotient – for people aspiring to be president of the United States. This is far too dangerous of a world to be entrusted to a bush-league president, served by a clown for a vice president and an efriteh for foreign policy tsarina, and jackal-like new-found allies like the sarkozy.
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over 50% of Gulf nations are Iranian EXPATS
by 20/20 (not verified) on Mon Dec 10, 2007 06:06 AM PSTQatar,UAE,Bahrain and Kwait...
Only real Arabs are the one who come from Yamen ... and they love Iran .. So Gate can kiss my ass
AMERICA AL QUM AL-JOHALA !
"PULP-FICTION Rings a bill"
Gates: Gulf nations must
by ½1111 (not verified) on Mon Dec 10, 2007 01:09 AM PSTGates: Gulf nations must confront Iran
//seattlepi.nwsource.com/national/1107ap_gate...
REPLY : IRI_NUCS, NIE-REPORT & WHAT WAS AT THE BEGINNING ?
by Faribors Maleknasri M.D. (not verified) on Sun Dec 09, 2007 09:54 AM PSTI think those who try the espionage, well these people i can not trust. For example how can i expect them to say the truth about IRI-Nucs? The truth is: IRI has never seeked atomic bombs, has never worked on them. Now can CIA or any other devilish Institution come over and say that? They willnever do it and nobody who thinks a bit logically can not expect them to do this. Otherwise they have missed thier job. They say now halve of the truth and every body thinks: Aha it was so IRI wanted first bombs but then........well then came the bushy bushy and brought the condolence arround and IRI stopped the NUC-Ambitions. But if it was so: Why bushy bushy and co did not know a word about it and continued barking and grunting bomb bomb Iran? Now please acknowledge the following: CIA engineers brain drain in Iran
CIA officials say they have launched a covert program to degrade Iran's nuclear roster by plucking key scientists and military officers.
Although the CIA partly aimed to gain information about Tehran's nuclear capabilities, its real goal was to undermine Iran's emerging abilities, both current and former US intelligence officials say.
The White House claims it was not a campaign for undermining Iran's nuclear program, but to gather 'better information' on it.
The previously undisclosed scheme, which CIA officials dubbed 'the brain drain', was initiated two years ago.
It was part of a major intelligence program launched against Iran and authorized by the White House, which resulted in the confirmation of Iran's peaceful nuclear intentions.
The end result of the intelligence community's assessment came as a heavy blow to Bush administration's credibility, over its allegations against the Islamic Republic's nuclear plans.
so these "honorable individualls" will say: if IRI has achieved any thing it is because WE wanted it so. It is allways the same tactic. =n January 15th 1979 the media of "FREE WORLD" broadcasted: the pienut merchant carter - they called it preseident of the united states - has said it is better when shah goes. He went on January 16th and it was the Effect of the islamic revolution! You see the barkers and grunters want to gather success. GreetingP8 we
MD/AA/MG
Guive. THANKS.
by 20/20 (not verified) on Sun Dec 09, 2007 04:19 AM PSTDedicated to you ! Happy new year...
//www.youtube.com/watch?v=jaCwwt03pmg&feature...
Enjoy
All the best.
To: KDD -very good comment
by Arezu (not verified) on Sat Dec 08, 2007 04:58 AM PSTThe NIE report brought up a significant point that has never been declared by anyone including the IAEA or the western powers, and that is Iran actually had a nuclear weapons program in 2003 and then of course because of American pressure it stopped the program.
So while Bush is being humiliated at home and abroad for lying to the American public and creating fear of WWW III, they are now raising the issue for face saving purposes that Iran in deed had a nuclear program, and as such can re-start it again. While the IAEA through its extensive inspections has not found any shred of evidence of diversion of material for developing a nuclear weapons program. Furthermore, the Russian President Putin has said a while ago that we know the Iranians better and we know they never had a nuclear weapons program, and as recently as two days ago the Russian FM, repeated the same.
So what are the implications of this report?
1. Iran had a nuclear weapons program - as such it is even a bigger threat than we believed they were.
2. They have the knowledge, something that Pres.Bush is stating that Iran does not even have the right to have!!! Amazing that countries are told that knowledge is a threat and must be stopped! This is the country which preaches "democracy", "freedom", and equal justice for all. Let's throw this out of the door, as the U.S. policy does totally the opposite of what the U.S. Constitution and its Bill of Right state. Another American hypocrisy.
3. Sanctions are a must - but we should not forget sanctions are themselves a form of "warfare" and are illegal, and are a prelude to war. No wonder both Condi Rice and Robert Gates are on a road show in Europe, Asia and the Persian Gulf States attempting to raise fear that increased pressure and sanctions are a must against Iran. And of course the Persian Gulf States and other Arab countries must all protect themselves against the "evil" Iran by purchasing more weapons from the U.S.
Israel as usual is also saber-rattling that if the U.S. doesn't stop Iran it will take control into its own hands and attack.
So while an imminent attack has been delayed I don't believe Iran is out of hot waters.
However, one thing for sure the President and VP of this country should be impeached for lying to this country over and over again.
Psychological Warfare
by Raha (not verified) on Sat Dec 08, 2007 03:36 AM PSTa bald-faced liar
Keith Olbermann
//www.informationclearinghouse.info/article18...
,
Iran Intelligence Report:
More Psychological Warfare?
By Soraya Sepahpour-Ulrich
//www.informationclearinghouse.info/article18...
Anything from AIPAC and neocon shysters?
by IranIrooni (not verified) on Fri Dec 07, 2007 11:22 PM PSTHello, you fucks. Where are you? What happened? Probably working on changing 'intelligence' reports again. You shysters have ruined the US and are trying to do the same to iran. Insecurity (as that's what all of you are known for), hypocrisy and selfishness will all bite you in the ass. If not now, but certainly later.
Iran ranks higher in both Math and phyics than Israel!
by ranks (not verified) on Fri Dec 07, 2007 08:57 PM PSTHottie lazy ass is mine to ride!
Ride the white pony.
Ride the white pony.
//www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1192380...
The only way
by Hottie (not verified) on Fri Dec 07, 2007 08:40 PM PSTThe only way to stop iran from such activities is to stop her from gaining knowledge to gain knowledge that would lead to such illegal activities. The best way is to pass a binding chapter 7 UNSC resolution that would demand iran to eliminate physics from the curriculum across iran. If that does not work, a second ultra binding chapter 11 UNSC resolution should be passed asking iran to eliminate any discussion or teaching of science in any school across iran. Russia must agree to set up a science center outside iran to help out with any science issues, and obviously with all that oil, iran has no need whatsoever for studying science at all. They can just sell oil and buy any science-based product that they want from russians. Foreign minister of arabia, sheikh al-donkey Ibn al-monkey, has already suggested to form a consortium outside iran to fulfill the needs of iran. iran should then unconditionally accept the ban on science and import their scientific needs from either the russian or arbain consortium.
really enjoy reading your articles
by Javana ZAL (not verified) on Fri Dec 07, 2007 08:21 PM PSTGuive Jan,
Glad to see back!
I really enjoy reading your articles. I especially
enjoy your playful take on etymology of some of the Persian words. I hope you find the time to write ore alog those lines; PLEASE do write ...
All the Best
last paragragh uncalled for
by Andy from Beaverton (not verified) on Fri Dec 07, 2007 09:07 AM PSTWithout this "bush-league president, served by a clown for a vice president", where would Iran be right now in regards to its nuclear program?
Dear Guive
by FH (not verified) on Fri Dec 07, 2007 03:47 AM PSTDid you have to include that last paragraph in this otherwise informative article? you know how to ruin your credibility. Since when the facial features of Dr. Rice ("efriteh") has anything to do with any of this?
The NIE can change headlines
by Anonymous999 (not verified) on Fri Dec 07, 2007 03:06 AM PSTThe NIE can change headlines in the NYT for a few days but it can't change geopolitics. An Iranian bomb would be still be an existential threat to Israel. And they still believe the Iranians are building a bomb. It would still be a threat to Saudi Arabia and Egypt; they have said they would go nuclear if Iran did. An Iranian nuke would be very disquieting to Russia and China. And lastly, it would pose grave difficulties for the US in the region.
For those long-term, almost unchangeable reasons, a large community in the US government has actively sought to keep Iran from acquiring nukes. Thus the idea that the administration is "giving Iran the green light to build nukes" will certainly be met with resistance by a broad community, who will not be easily convinced.
But it's nevertheless true that another community has long plumped for letting Iran get the bomb and dealing with the consequences on "the day after".
Has the administration now taken the "day after" approach in exchange for Iranian guarantees on Iraq? If so, why now when events on the ground are running the American way? Why will should they quit when they're on a roll? Why wasn't this flip-flop done at around the time of the Baker Commission Report, when it was pushing for a deal? Yet, with the Baker Report practically forgetten history why should it mysteriously rise from the dead reanimated by the NIE?
These are the difficulties in thinking that the NIE is part of package to give Iran a de facto deal. It's in someone's interest, but not obviously in the Bush administration's interest. Which was why the conclusions received a lively response from Dick Cheney et al, apparently.
If we are looking to explain actions based on motive the usual suspects should be those who have always wanted to ease back on Iran; always wanted to make deals with the Ayatollahs.
It might be true that we are watching the administration offer a secret olive branch to Iran, but we are just as likely to be witnessing yet another round in the endless political war in Washington.
//fallbackbelmont.blogspot.com/2007/12/source...
US and Iran are allies in
by Anonymous1 (not verified) on Fri Dec 07, 2007 02:27 AM PSTUS and Iran are allies in Iraq and Afghnistan. It's clear that a back door deal has been struck with the mullahs in sharing the loot in iraq and Afghanistan. what a shame...
//iranvajahan.net/cgi-bin/news.pl?l=en&y=2007...
PISSED AIPAC & ISRAEL LOST CONTROL FOR A CHANGE
by Goldust (not verified) on Thu Dec 06, 2007 09:27 PM PSTMammad, according to russia, iran never did have the nuke program to begin with, and has issue with CIA report. we cannot totally trust the report either. Israel and AIPAC want the world to believe iran is pusuing nuke, and want the US to use that as an alibi to attack iran! Now for the first time they couldn't control this news!
They can go to hell! they are the real enemy of iran. now they are going to look for another excuse. wait and see!
i hope we can soon start getting rid the corrupt iranian government!
Dear Guive M. Please Respond
by Tehranian (not verified) on Thu Dec 06, 2007 08:55 PM PSTI am not a lawyer, so excuse my naive question if you find it so. Is there any international forum or court, like ICJ, that can rule on legality of actions within NPT and legal obligations of iran within NPT? (similar to the what iran used in case of nationalization of oil industry in 50s) If so, would you suggest that, and if so, would it be binding in any shape or form. Thank you.
I have great respect for Dr.
by Mammad (not verified) on Thu Dec 06, 2007 07:24 PM PSTI have great respect for Dr. Mifendereski,
but there are factual errors in the article, as well as him falling for what the US is saying.
First, facts: Aside from the treason that the terrorist Mojahedin committed, it was in February 2003 that Mohammad Khatami formally announced the existence of the Natanz facility.
In the same month, Mohamed ElBaredei visted Iran, as did the inspectors of the IAEA. In June 2003, ElBaradei issued its first report. So, the Natanz facility was not "discoverd" by sattelite images in August 2003, as the article states.
Second, Guive accepts the premise that Iran did have a nuclear weapon program before 2003. But,where is the evidence for that? The NIE did not present a shred of evidence.
Here are the fsacts as certified by the IAEA, the only objective source of information: Before 2003 the Natanz facility was built, secretly but legally. Then, Khatami annouced its existence, and so it came under the safeguards of the IAEA. So, because the CIA did not know about this before 2003, it can claim that, because it was secret, it must have been a weapon program. Come on! Where is the evidence?
I am not saying that Iran did not have such a program. It might or it might not have. But, in absence of any credible evidence, there is no way of telling whether this assertion is true or not.
Spin Game
by farokh2000 on Thu Dec 06, 2007 01:56 PM PSTI totally agree with you Mr. Mirfendriski. The morons in this country have no clue and are cutting thier nose inspite of their face. They are now the laughing stock of the whole World andthere is no respect for them anywhere, including here in this country.
There is no question that the biggest "terrorists" are sitting now in the WH in D.C.. The Mullahs are part of their own game and not much better, however.
They must go but from within the country and not by outsiders murdering innocent people to get rid of the Mullah, whom THEY brought to power to begin with.
Dont believe the NIE spin
by KDD (not verified) on Thu Dec 06, 2007 01:53 PM PSTNever trust the US in any capacity ever.
This is just a way to get the World's media to spread ad nauseam the fallacy that Iran once had a nuclear weapons program.
Why let evidence and truth get in the way of spin and lies?
This was released by accident?
I dont think so...its just another move in the deadly game of Chess
What will be the next revelation, now that the US suddenly has a modicum of intelligence again?
It might not be one you want to hear
Bear in mind if the monsterous Bush regime knew that Iran had never had a weapons program as they sat on the report for 1 year and threatened Iran with a preemptive nuclear strike is they didnt do as they were told.
Do not do the work of these filth by spreading their evil lies further
Graet Article Guive.
by masoudA on Thu Dec 06, 2007 12:57 PM PSTand let's not forget - The whole Nuclear issue is an excuse. With or without a nuclear program - the mullahs must go. The war is against terror and terrorists - and as we know the mullahs live and strive by terror.