The upcoming elections: 4 predictions


by FG

PREDICTION #1: No matter what Khamenei offers, reformers will skip this election in droves.

EXPLANATION: Reformers have learned that pre-election liberalization ALWAYS ends afterwards.   When it comes to any promises or offers of alliance, reformers know how Khamenei betrayed Moussavi, Rafsanjani, Ahmadinemad, etc..   Why would they trust such a man now?

PREDICTION #2: With reformers staying home, Ahmadinejad won't need to cheat. 

EXPLANATION: Whoever has the most loyal and ambitious followers whoever knows how to mobilize turnout has a big edge.  Ahmadinejad who can count on up to 6 million votes, including many  fanatics.   The clerics can count only on seminary students, security force generals, religious police and a minority of religious fanatics.  No wonder the hard line conservatives are trying, with little success, to form a coalition.  Fat lot of good it will do them anyway.

Who are the remaining voters?  People who would have stayed home if not forced to the vote by their employers or by commanding officers plus a minority of reformers who---aware that they'd never be allowed to win a free election--will take revenge by maximizing problems for the regime.  Confronted with a "lesser of two evils" choice, most of the above will also go for Ahmadinejad.  Mahmoud may be just as vicous, brutal, mendacious and untrustworthy as Khamenei BUTpeople know know who made him what he was and who encouraged his every crime.

Another reason the mullahs appear the worse of two evils is their Khamenei's Wahabbi-like position on social issues, women's rights and education are vastly unpopular compared to Ahmadinejad's.  I refer to issues such as Iran vs. Arab Islam, hajibs, islamized education, hair cuts, women's rights, forcing grade school kids to join the basilj and gender segregation in the schools.  

Ahmadinejad is seen as a puppet or tool gone astray while the mullahs are so deeply hated they have no idea.  Khamenei senses what's coming as is beginning to panic. 

PREDICTION #3: The very low turnout will demonstrate both the regime's extreme loss of legitimacy and the deep public mistrust of elections but that won't bother Khamenei nearly as much.

REASONING: Khamenei was deeply involved in rigging the election of 2009 once he sensed it wouldn't go the way he preferred.  Should he be surprised if voters consider his assurances that "the election will be fair this time?   Iranians now believe Khamenei's promises as much as Syrians believe Assad's promises.  

PREDICTION #4:  The upcoming Parliament will be a nightmare for Khamenei.   
It won't be like the reformer-led parliament under Mohammed Khatami that was so easy to overrule.  Ahmadinejad's followers resemble brown shirts rather than gentle reformers.  They won't take interference docilely.


OPTION A: Prevent an Ahmadinejad victory by excluding most of his slate via the puppet Guardian Council (stuffed with reactionaries)

TWO PROBLEMS: The immediate consequence will be to reduce an already small turnout to a trickle.    The more dangerous consequence will be to accelerate popular discontent and revolution as former regime allies join the opposition.

OPTION B: Repeat The Great Theft of 2009 if results aren't what Khamenei wanted.  

THE PROBLEM: The uprising will occur even faster--right after rigged results and will be continous and widespread, as in Syria.  This time the opposition will include three elements instead of one--the greens, Ahmadinejad supporters and working class folks crushed by economic issues (inflation, lack of jobs, obvious clerical corruption, etc.)    This time the regime will find fewer people on whom it can depend to crush protestors.  The Basilj with many Ahmadinejad supporters in its ranks while a majority of IRCG soldiers voted green in 2009. 

(Note: This post expands on some points made by Afshin in response to today's Iran News section at Enduring America). 


more from FG

Phony "facts" of hass-terical

by AMIR1973 on

HASS-TERICAL "FACT": Every official in Iran is either elected directly or appointed by elected bodies

LIE: The Leader-for-Life is picked by the 86-member Assembly of Experts, which only contains male Shia "experts" (thereby excluding the female half of the population from picking the Leader and allowing only religious experts to choose a Leader who can only be a "mojtahed", i.e. an akhoond). Now, that's some representative government, IRI style.

The Leader-for-Life picks half the Guardian Council (again, a body consisting of men of religion), which can then vet who can run for the sham "parliament" and can abrogate all laws passed by the sham "parliament".

O hass-terical, are you going to keep vomiting up your gibberish or will you quit while you're ahead? The choice is yours, O hass-terical.



by hass on

FACT: Every official in Iran is either elected directly or appointed by elected bodies. FACT: whatever the faults of Iran's system of government it is still far more representative, and Iranians still turn up for elections. THe numbers are not "Sham" just because you wish and hope and dream that they would not.


O Hass-terical

by AMIR1973 on

FACT: The Supreme Leader of the IRI, who has the final word on all crucial matters of state, can NOT under any circumstance be popularly elected and can ONLY be a cleric chosen by a group of other male Shia religious "experts" (in essence a Leader-for-Life). So much for the IRI's sham "elections". And let's not forget that Cuba, among other authoritarian regimes, claims 95% voter turnout in its own sham "elections". But, once again, nice try O Hass-terical. Now, go and crawl back under that rock of yours. Cheers  :-) 



by hass on

Fact: about 70% of Iranians regularly participate in their elections, and there is no evidence whatsoever that the last Presidential elections were "rigged" much to the chagrin of OGHDEI EXILES and their American/Israeli financiers.



by Cost-of-Progress on

In a "system" such as that of the islamist regime in Iran, elections are yet another smoke screen presented to the world to portray the theocracy as democratic. They are not and hopefully by now the people know it.

Elections, therefore, are irrelevant and merely a game when it comes to who does what politically in Iran.  






May I offer my own prediction?

by AMIR1973 on

Prediction #5: None of this IRI sham "election" business for a sham "parliament" will end up mattering much in a fundamental sense, just as the virtual house arrests of Mousavi and Karroubi have passed without too much fuss in real terms. As long as the Islamist regime has its oil lifeline (which it does for the time being), it has the money to buy the enforcers it needs to stay in power (e.g. IRGC, Basij, etc). Saudi Arabia and the other oil rich Gulf states have been able to weather the "Arab spring", and they haven't killed even a fraction of their own people that the IRI has to attain and maintain power. I also don't buy the notion of the IRI "elites" bringing the regime down through in-fighting any time soon (they're not dumb enough to do that; they see what is happening in Syria, Libya, etc). That might happen at some future date if, and only if, the regime begins to crumble -- and again, nothing short of comprehensive sanctions on oil, the Central Bank of Iran, etc will make that happen in the foreseeable future (i.e. the short- to medium-term).  


Agree with 1,2, and 4, but not 3.

by Mammad on