FG

dear FG,,, speaking of Lebanon

Your LeastInformedAboutIranVisitor invites you to note the growing schism between Hizbollah, and the righteous Shiites that oppose the Assad dictatorship. Your  vision of an essentially secular  (?)opposition could benefit by dividing your adversaries ,and providing a spirtual home for Shiites that reject VF,and the IRI's dictatorship.

Only the clerics have the arrows sharp enough to Kill the Beast.

No matter the motives behind, it's still good news

While amnesty may not calm Iran as a whole, it will sure bring happiness to the families of the 90 lucky.

"Beggars can't be choosy", ironic but true.

Term used for women in Tunisia draft constitution ignites debate

If Iranians are ever inclined to trust Islamists or clerics again once the current regime is history reports like this and some from Egypt will reinforce doubts. 

CAIRO — A row over a proposed constitutional description of women as complementary to men in family life has sharpened divisions in Tunisia between Islamists and a secular opposition that fought for years to make the North African nation a relative bastion of gender equality.

//www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/term-used-for-women-in-tunisias-draft-constitution-ignites-debate-protests/2012/08/16/c6045e24-e7bf-11e1-a3d2-2a05679928ef_story.html

Maher Assad: Portrait of a genuine psychopath

From a biography at The Telegraph (UK)

 He has, they say, the classic psychopath's appetite for inflicting suffering and a total inability to empathise with the plight of his victims.

 Stories abound of his fondness not just for ordering retribution but actively taking part in it.

Last month, a video emerged purporting to show Mr Assad, dressed in a leather jacket, firing a pistol at unarmed protesters in a district of Damascus.

The authenticity of the footage has not been verified, but the man bears a resemblance to the president's brother and the manner in which officers protect him as he shoots points to the culprit being a figure of some note.

It is the second time Mr Assad has allegedly been caught on film revelling in violence.

In March, disturbing footage emerged on the internet showing a man with Maher al-Assad's appearance photographing the dismembered bodies of regime opponents at a prison near Damascus with his mobile phone....

 Seen as the leader of a hardline camp in the regime, Maher was blamed by some observers for preventing the president from steering a more moderate course.

But that view is increasingly challenged, with some saying that the regime has deliberately fostered the impression that Bashar al-Assad was a reformer hindered from making concessions by his blood-crazed younger brother in order to protect the president's image.

Under this analysis, it is Maher who gets the blood on his hands, and publicly revels in it, while Bashar keeps a respectable distance from the violence.

COMMENT: 

Sounds like a man after Khamenei's own heart, playing the role of Ahmadinejad while the Supreme Leader plays the innocent.

 //www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/syria/8565025/Maher-Assad-profile-of-the-Syrian-presidents-feared-brother.html

ALSO IN THE TELEGRAPH

 British convert to Islam vows to fight to the death on Syrian rebel front line

 //www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/syria/9481246/British-convert-to-Islam-vows-to-fight-to-the-death-on-Syrian-rebel-front-line.html

I am a peaceful person

But I tell you where there are Salafists that's where I reach my limit of peacefulness. Whoever slaughters Salafist-Wahhabis en masse like the dogs that they are (no offense to dogs!) has done humanity and the universe a great service. These so-and-sos are not even human in my book.

NY Times: Rebels said to be holding elite fighters from IRAN

EXCERPT

 At the Zeinab shrine in Syria, which the Iranians had said they were visiting, regular visitors and merchants cast doubt on Iran’s assertion that the captives were religious pilgrims.

On a recent visit, most sellers at the shrine’s market had fled or closed their shops. The large garages where buses and cars from Iran once parked were quiet, the hotels empty. Abu Hiadar, 50, a Shiite originally from Iraq, said he lived near the shrine and visited every day. “I haven’t seen any Iranian visitors in the past few months,” he said. Several merchants said the decline started a few months after the rebel uprising began last year.

OBSERVATION: If the pilgrims never visited the shrine they were supposed to be visiting, what where they doing instead?

 //www.iranfocus.com/en/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=25786:syrian-rebels-said-to-be-holding-elite-fighters-from-iran&catid=4:iran-general&Itemid=26

Tunisia Salafists halt Iranian concert at Sufi festival

Hardline Islamists have prevented an Iranian group from performing at a Sufi festival in Kairouan, south of Tunis, deeming their Shiite chanting violated sacred values, Tunisian media reported on Thursday.

It was the second time in two days that radical Muslims have disrupted cultural performances in Tunisia.

 //news.yahoo.com/tunisia-salafists-halt-iranian-concert-sufi-festival-183714475.html?_esi=1

Reuthers: Multiple sources now say Maher lost a leg

Two things are different about this one.   First, it mentions only one leg.  Second, it refers to multiple sources.   

 //news.yahoo.com/lebanon-kidnap-sparks-fears-syria-spillover-110920351.html

A Saudi audiotape of an alleged TELEPHONE conversation between the Russian deputy foreign minister and a reporter is no doubt being tested for authenticity.  A voice on a telephone is not like a live voice or one on television or a good video.  People rarely sound like themselves in the former case.

Even if tests fail to confirm or rebut the tape's authenticity, note that apparently there are other sources.  It is hard to conceal something like this.  Equally puzzling is Maher's failure to appear in public, which has the same effect as Romney's concealed tax returns.

To Esfand

Huffy, aren't we? Maybe you got out of the wrong side of bed this morning to be so cranky....and bossy.     

As to numbers, I've seen 80 and 90 previously--not 160.  Figures DO change, as the day moves as you must know just like numbers of earthquake dead. Either way, it doesn't matter for reasons I argued.  How could you miss the whole point?  Learn to read.

Who made you boss here anyway?  I notice you include your own sacrosanct analysis.  Why not apply your advice to yourself when it comes to analysis?

Like it or not, there are slews of folks here who would not agree with your shrew-like grouching. They might not agree wirh every analysis I post but few would be  so arrogant to dispute my right to do so while claiming the opposite for themselves.

IRONIC BOOMERANG: Iran's IEDs help bring down Assad

Much of the Iraqis' IED expertise was originally provided by Iran. Now it is seeping into Syria and helping to bring down Khamenei's ally with further potential consequences down thre line. 

I'd look for those IED's to move on to Lebanonalong with jihadists Iran once supported. That should bring happiness to Hezbollah after Assad goes bye-bye.  

Eventually they may return to the regime where they originated.  Nice, eh?

And there is this: 

You are clueless! There are 160 prisoners who received amnesty.

 Why does this amnesty come so late and only when Khamenei faces his greatest domestic crisis ever?

You are clueless!  EVERY year (not "so late") at the end of the month of Ramadan (Qods day) some prisoners are pardoned.  This year 160 prisoners were pardoned, 90 of which were already serving sentences.  The remaining 60 had their sentences commuted or pardoned altogether.

Of course this in no way washes Islamic Republic's bloody hands in imprisoning these people to begin with, it's just that you are reading some garbage in "Enduring America" and think that you are drinking from the fountain of youth and want to share (read poison ;-) it with it as well!  Enduring America is sucks!

ALL Iranians have PhDs in Political Science and don't need an intern to bother them with their nonsense!  Just read and share stuff you read here on Enduring America, not the other way around!

Everything is sacred

EA's James Miller summarizes military developments nationwide

His aim is to concentrate on what other media missed when they focused only on the latest Damascus bombing.  This passage comes in the middle of today's Syria roundup at Enduring America:

Summary - The regime has been on the move in Idlib province, but has not been winning battles. Evidence from the FSA brigades in these areas suggest that from Bab al Hawa to Ma'arrat al Nouman, the regime has lost several fairly decisive battles on the main roads. Following the regime's defeat last week in Kafranbel, this is significant.

Daraa is a place we didn't talk too much about yesterday, but FSA appears to be trying to organize, and the regime appears to be doing everything it can to halt that organization. Organized insurgency, like we see in Homs or Aleppo, is far off there - but it may be getting closer.

Deir Ez Zor is largely a stalemate. FSA has made some successful attacks, especially a few days ago.

We talked a lot about Damascus yesterday - still getting a feel for what's going to happen there today.

Aleppo city is quieter for the last two days, with the regime unable to advance and the FSA picking at its seams. Both sides appear to be looking elsewhere for military progress.

Homs - keep reading, I think the situation there is about to explode.

My point in that post is that the media has been mute for days on most of that news, only paying attention to the news immediately surrounding yesterday's bombing in Damascus. With all the news that broke yesterday, it has all fallen completely flat on large parts of the media.

Interesting report on air base attack, Maher's death (?)

WARNING: How reliable this is remains to be seen.  The report of Maher's death is the first I've seen anywhere but it is not incompatible with having two legs blown off, as the Russian deputy foreign minister allegedly claimed in an interview with a Saudi journalist and friend.

BLOG:   Did lots of Backtracking on the so called 4th division Attack on Ariha

1.The 4th division has no 70 Tanks anymore

2.Maher is dead

3.4th division was and is never stationed in Latakia

4.Damascus is there Turf and now a a little bit near Aleppo by the Highway

5.Sat pictures show No Tanks what so ever in Ariha

6.No 2000 men

7.There was an attack by Shabiah with cars and trucks with about 500 thugs

8.They where beaten Back

9.They killed about 40 Civilians

10 Losses on shabiah side about 50 dead

Conclusion can be a SS ad spreads rumors of big NON existing Divisions over the INTERNET and other media to save Face and to keep moral High,This is a copy of the Nazi regime in its last Days

BLOG: THE AIR BASE ATTACK 

FSA troops At the Soutern Barracks today stared to bombard Mezeh Air base with CAptured 122MM guns and 120 mm Mortars and with 125MM tank Guns to Prevent the choppers there from flying the Base has been attacked before from the air and from land but still a SS aad troops and foremost Iranian specialist keep the chopper part running

From the moment that the FSA started to shell to now no choppers has landed or started from there

The Palace tunnel system is cleared for 25% and an other 110 prisoners are freed The FSA captured 40 prison guards and killed about 60 off them among the dead where North Korean maintenance soldiers who keep the tunnel system running one was captured he worked there as a translator 

The map they found earlyer on is correct

So the mood among the FSA is very high and the loses are 2 good FSA soldiers until now

This will be a time consuming operation

Because more prisoners are down there

And the FSA will do everything to keep them Alive

SOURCE: GO FREE SYRIA

//gofreesyria.blogspot.de/2012/03/tired-of-western-influenced-media-tired.html

When guys like this defect, you KNOW Assad is in trouble

Another Syrian general has defected but this one is the Vice President's brother. What is significant here is that the motive for defection may be different and that's why this one is a psychological blow to the regime, as Enduring America points out in its roundup:

 But this episode says something deeper. There are two major reasons for most defections. The first, a sense that the policies of the regime are objectionable. The second reason, however, is the fear that the regime will collapse and those responsible for those policies may be held accountable.

General Shara's defection likely puts his cousin n a precarious spot, so one has to wonder whether the General would put his cousin in jeopardy, this late in the game, for ideological reasons. Surely, the regime is not doing anything today that it did not do months ago. This raises the possibility that General Shara is fleeing the regime because his life, and his cousin the Vice President's, are already at risk. But that risk is not from a possible regime reaction. That risk is the possible fall of the regime. If a high-ranking General like Shara believes that the regime is so weak that he needs to flee it, that is a significant development in and of itself.

One also has to wonder if yesterday's bombing in Damascus is related to Shara's defection. There's no evidence that General Shara was responsible, but this is the second blow to the heart of the regime's security leadership in the capital. One has to seriously question the loyalty of many members of the regime, as attacks persist that look like inside jobs, and defections persist at even the highest levels.

An activist is maintaining a list (with Youtube videos) of all the Generals who have defected from the military. So far, more than 50 have fled the regime. Perhaps General Shara's defection is not a military blow to the regime, but a high-profile defection of this kind is another psychological blow, to say nothing of the information that Shara likely has that will help the Free Syrian Army in their continued fight to topple Assad.

Asked to spy on rebels, Syrian soldier becomes one

His comments on the role of conscripts in Syria's Republican Guard suggests why defections are so high:

As for Republican Guard conscripts, they are the best paid in the Syrian army. Ra'ed says he was paid about $10 a month. His chief duty was to chauffeur his commanding officer around Damascus, the Syrian capital.

Kahwaji says this kind of pay is not enough to operate a professional military.

"The conscripts are cheap labor," Kahwaji says. "These guys are paid peanuts, if anything, for their military service. So they are dying for nothing."

Often, the conscripts merely serve as a "front line, just to act as sandbags for the shabiha [the pro-regime militia] and the Alawite troops."

The prospect of being used as cannon fodder in a war on one's own people is enough to make many conscripts defect, Kahwaji says.

HOW HELPFUL WAS HE TO THE SYRIAN REGIME?

Here's an example:

"I would give them outdated information, or just tell them obvious things," Ra'ed says. "Or, I gave them information that would help the rebels. For example, if the rebels planned to liberate a certain checkpoint, I would tell my handlers that the rebels would hit a different checkpoint."

You can read the story or listen to an audio report here:

//www.npr.org/2012/08/16/158891571/asked-to-spy-on-rebels-syrian-soldier-becomes-one

Along those lines....

Muhammed Sahimi at Tehran Bureau has offered more details on the released political prisoners who the regime prefers to call "security prisoners" as if that fools anyone.

//www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/tehranbureau/2012/08/news-90-political-prisoners-to-be-freed-ex-ministers-dump-ahmadinejad.html

Speaking of a regime in deep trouble, there is this from National Public Radio (NPR):

From All Sides, Iran Under Siege

Iran appears to be facing a crisis more serious than anything it has experienced since its war with Iraq in the 1980s.

//www.npr.org/2012/08/15/158831342/from-all-sides-iran-under-siege

Yesterday I provided several reports on current developments in Lebanon and my own analysis in which I forecast that after Assad's fall the new Syrian govenment will retaliate against Lebanese kidnappers of FSA forces and Hezbollah for its support to Assad by solving the problem of what to do with well armed and disciplined Islamic jihadis afterwards.  I noted that they will be shipped south to Lebanon where they will find a solid base of support.

So where is that potential base of support?  Here you go, ready and waiting:

//www.npr.org/2012/08/10/158525814/sunni-cleric-rises-to-challenge-hezbollah-in-lebanon?ps=rs

NOTE: I think it's important to Iranians that Lebanon's Hezbollah be tied up in troubles of its own afterward, lest they be sent to assist Khamenei in dealing with his own likely uprising when it begins.