FG

You call THAT evidence!!! Here's evidence & research

MULLAHKOSH'S EVIDENCE:"every green, and reformer politicians has endorsed him."

In endorsing Khoumeini, the reformers are endorsing his well-known positions. 

Because no other prominent regime critic can openly say what Khoumeini has said, doesn't mean they don't agree with him.   They KNOW for certain they'd be arrested in no time and probably put on public trial and executed if they did.  That's what the regime can't do to Khoumeini but it can give him a needle full of curare to stop his heart if he becomes too great a threat.  Hence the need for the "If you read this" DVD.

MORE EVIDENCE AGAINST KHOMEINEI?: "Even Rafsanjani last year in April of 2010 supported, and endorsed him.
Do you think those people will endorse a man who is going to destroy the
system?"

R can take 4 possible positions:1) Support hard-line rule (not likely) 2) Advocate reform of the system 3) Support either Syria style revolution 4) ousting the system from the inside with minimum or no violence (which ONLY Khoumeini can do)

The first option is unsafe for R and--along with #3--includes the most disadvantages.   His choice would be #2 but he's foxy enough to know it's not in the cards by now. Neither the hard-line mullahs nor most of the populatin want's it. So it comes down to #3 or#4--a no brainer choice.  When the system goes down, Rafsanjani will lose some of his wealth but like Rafsanjani and Moussavi, the people will forgive past crimes and his son can come home.   Khamenei, Jafari, Mojtaba, etc. won't be forgiven.

EVIDENCE FOR GRANDSON KHOUMEINI IN HIS OWN WORDS

"My grandfather's revolution has devoured its children and strayed
from its course," he (Khoumeini) told Al Arabiya television. "I lived through the
revolution, and it called for freedom and democracy but it has
persecuted its leaders."

(Khoumeini refers to pre-coup revolution which is clear from statements he has made elesewhere that "my grandfather made mistakes").

 Mr. Khomeini is a Shi'ite cleric, but he believes that the clerics who
have run the country since 1979 -- whom he dismissively calls "wearers
of the turban" -- abused their power after the overthrow of the shah.

Said Al Arabiya: "As for his call to President Bush to come and
occupy Iran, Hossein Khomeini explained that 'freedom must come to Iran
in ANY POSSIBLE WAY, whether through internal or external developments.
If you were a prisoner, what would you do? I want someone to break the
prison [doors open].'?"

Mr. Khomeini also made clear his opposition to Iran's suspected
development of a nuclear-weapons program. "Iran will gain real power if
freedom and democracy develop there," he said. "Strength will not be
obtained through weapons and the bomb." ((See my recent post on how the Saudis ar now making moves to develop the bomb)...

Hossein Khomeini said that if he came to power in Iran, one of his
first acts would be to make wearing the hijab (veil) optional for women (a direct attack on Khamenei and the hard line mullahs  How will they react when Khoumenei has a strong power base obtained via popular legitimacy?)

Mr. Khomeini's mentor is believed to be the regime's best-known
religious critic, Grand Ayatollah Ali Montazeri, who was released in
2003 from six years of house arrest in Qom for criticizing the rule of
the Ayatollah Ali Khameini.(Mullahkosh praised Montazeri earlier.  As a mentor, he beats Mesbah Yadzi, who mentored Murderous Mojtaba (aka Little Caligula), son of Khamenei.

 By Philip Sherwell LONDON SUNDAY TELEGRAPH (excerpts) June 21, 2006

SO WHO IS MULLAHKOSH'S MAN?

I gather you are a monarchist which would mean Reza Pahlavi in which case Khomeini's popularity might be seen as a threat no matter how sincere K is and despite K's seeming preference for staying out of politics if only there were any other way to end the mullocracy without civil war. 

I have nothing against the guy (though some of his followers Khamenei-like xenophobia makes me wary).   However, Rez is not in a good position to rally the masses.  For one thing, he is relatively unknown to many Iranians under the age of forty. For another, I'm not sure Iranians see they need even a ceremonial style monararch as in England.

Fairly or not, many Iranians seem to say, "If the Shah had done better, we wouldn't have the mullocracy now."  If you are a monarchist, Mullahkosh, then consider how many Iraians are using the same kind of "hereditary blame argument against Reza that you use against Khoumeinis grandson.

If you aren't a monarchist, and if you are against all reformers and young Khoumeini too as potential choices for leading the overthrow of the Islamic Republic who is left?   Personally, if its anyone but a mullah, a totally secular figure will be severly handicapped from the start.  I believe the ideal leader would be a man with strong religious and credentials who is totally in favor of a secular democracy.  Who else fits better than Khoumeini?

FG, don't be ridiculuous

Of course there is no hard proof that he is a reformer like Khatami. And of course there is no hard proof that he will bring the system down like you suggest. But I tell you one thing, there is far more circumstantial evidence that he is part of the reform camp than what you suggest he will do. Are you telling me he is about to bring down the system his grandpa built? 

Just google him, and you will see every green, and reformer politicians has endorsed him. Even Rafsanjani last year in April of 2010 supported, and endorsed him. Do you think those people will endorse a man who is going to destroy the system? What we don't need is a reform of IR, we need its destruction..... 

Saudis: If Iran has nukes, we must have nukes

The ruling mullahs should have predicted this

//news.yahoo.com/saudi-may-join-nuclear-arms-...

Our key difference comes down to ONE sentence

The odd thing is that every argument you make would favor a Khoumeini candidacy as ideal...except for this key sentence:

"The fact of the matter is that Hassan will be another Khatami,
prolonging the life of this regime by restoring that "internal"
equilibrium."

And your proof for this is....Mindreading ability?  A cleric will always be a cleric?  Khamenei inherited his grandfather's views?   Every guy who wears a turban believes in Islamic rule, either reformed or hard line.  You confuse a statement of opinon--no more than a hunch really--as if it were certified fact.  It boils down to "This is a terrible idea BECAUSE I DON'T TRUST HIM.  HE LIES!"

Either you believe Khoumenei meant what he said or you don't.  Absent even one jot of evidence to support your belief, how can you make it THE CENTRAL PREMISE for your conclusion? In logic, a conclusion is only as strong as the supporting premise which is totally unproven in this case.

To the degree any evidence exists for either conclusion, it points to Khoumeini's "IRI must go" position as genuine.

First, he has never advocated reform since, not once.  Secondly, his failure to build a faction of hanger-ons around him.  A man with political ambitions would do that: Rafsanjani, the Larinjanis, the IRCG generals, Khoumeini, Ahmandinejad?  

Thirdly, there has always been a strong faction in the clergy that disliked the whole idea of the Islamic Republic and saw clerical involvement in powerful political positions as corrupting.  In fact, from all I've read a majority of top ayatollahs detest the central doctrine justifying Khamenei's power.  Just like so many secular factions they've been outmaneuvered by a fanatical, power hungry, well-organized, hard line clique within the clergy.

SOMETHING IS UNCLEAR 

You say this idea won't work--relying on a hunch-based premise--and imply there is a better scenario.  I'd like to hear that better alternative.

SEVEN AREAS OF WHICH WE AGREE ACTUALLY SUPPORT THE KHAMENEI IDEA RATHER THAN UNDERMINE IT

1.  "people have realized that the regime beyond repair." (TRUE for most Iranians who are supprressed by force)

Khomenei said so to western reporters when most Greens and their leaders were still talking up reform. Where do I suggest Iranians should encourage a Khoumeini candidacy in order to reform the IRI.  The heart of my thesis is that Khoumeini may be the ONLY person who can eliminate the IRI with no or little bloodshed.

2. "the opposition forces inside and outside completely lack a strategic understanding, and foresight".    (TRUE)

3. "IR's opposition = Fragmented, no consensus on goals and objectives, therefore no consenus on mechanism" (TRUE)

Yes they need a unifier so name someone who fits better than Khamenei (and who is harder for the regime to shut up).  If broad appeal is mandatory, consider:

A) Khoumeini's potential appeal extends to all classes, not just students and the middle class.

B) What can beat a Good Cleric to take down the Bad Clerics.  Did you not say the key to taking down this system is to take advantage of its disunity.

C) Islamist
parties in Iran and elsewhere feed on the misperception that 
secular democracies are anti-religious.  Khoumeini knows better.  Who is more qualified to convince the religiously fervent that the charge is mythical?  Who has the credibility and status to persuade the religion that is exactly clerical rule that threatens Islam by corrupting the clergy?

4. "As long as these variables are controlled by IR, the regime is not going any where, even with economic collapse."

Khoumeini's candidacy would upset the IR's control over variables.

5. "IR hold most of the media within the country" (TRUE)

Which no longer equates to total control over information inside the country, as dicators can't seem to grasp.  The problem of information control will be greater during an election campaign.  Any blatant interference will translate into evidence for Khoumeini's charges. 

6. the IR "can ALWAYS conjure up imaginery threats from Israel, and U.S."  (TRUE IN THE PAST.  I DISAGREE THAT "ALWAYS"  APPLIES HERE).

Senator Joe McCarthy suckered Americans for several years until he went too far and accused the army of being pro-communist.  Same problem here in trying to sell Iranians on the idea that Khoumeini is a foreign stooge.

7.  "The The time for talking and smiling is over."  (TRUE)

Where did I suggest "talking and smiliing?"

This is a terrible idea all around...

This may not be a terrible idea for the Green leaders (Mousavi, and Karoubi, and Seyed Khandan) as it provides an escape from the current pressure on them. But this idea is terrible for Iran, Iranians, and the future of the country. I have to strongly disagree with our good friend FG here, and I strongly resent the fact that those who oppose the Islamist Rapist at this juncture of IR's history would even propose or support something like this, although it does not surprise me.

It does not surprise me because the opposition forces inside and outside completely lack a strategic understanding, and foresight. This is also because there is fragmentation or lack of consensus as far as the mission we are trying to accomplish. I will use a strategic model based on Michael Porter's model which is used extensively in business.

IR's opposition = Fragmented, no consensus on goals and objectives, therefore no consenus on mechanism

IR's strategy= Internal equilibrium amongst the oligarchy; Externally= a created, designed, or default common enemy.

As long as these variables are controlled by IR, the regime is not going any where, even with economic collapse. The external enemy variable will always remain in the hands of IR, since they hold most of the media within the country, and can always conjure up imaginery threats from Israel, and U.S. Even their bozo supporters here frequently talk about an Israeli attack to scare people off.

Let's talk about the other two variables. Since 2005 election of Antari, there is been a shift in other two variables, only accelerated after teh 2009 events. More and more the opposition is unifying around the goal of regime change, although the mechanism of how to achieve this is still a touchy subject with lots of disagreements. Gone are days when even part of the JM residing in U.S would praise Khatami, gone are the days of hope for reform. Finally, people have realized that the regime beyond repair.

IR's stability more than any other factor resides in maintaining an internal equilibrium amongst the oligarchy. This equilibrium is currently disarrayed to say the least.

The time for talking and smiling is over. We need as Iranians to look and judge people based on their actions. Just because Hassan is saying some nice stuff is not enough any more. The fact of the matter is that Hassan will be another Khatami, prolonging the life of this regime by restoring that "internal" equilibrium. A big portion of the pie is being taken by certain forces in Iran that include the IRGC. Equal sharing of the pie amongst the oligarchy will not help average Iranians. Furthermore, the segment of the opposition who is always willing to contemplate the notion of "reform" will have another excuse to turn a blind eye to the regime's actions in the hope of long term reform, thus recracking whatever unity is been built against Antari and the hardliners.

We must have competent leadership for the opposition, and as part of the leadership, there needs to be a decision of whether we want a regime change to restore Iran, and its future, or we want a milder version of criminals running the country. A milder version that hangs people inside evin rather than putting people on cranes in public squares. Fundamentally, a Hassan's presidency will not change Iran for better, the changes will be cosmetic at best. This is a fascist regime, and all historical trends have shown such regimes to be incapable of reforming, they must collapse i.e. soviet union. Our job should not be to assist a milder versio of rapists to come to power, but to assist the forces to accelerate the collapse. In that respect, helping to radicalize the internal forces would be much more benefitial to Iran.

Correction: Khomenei NOR Khamenei

Khamenei/Khomenei--all those dark K's and similar endings!   I always have trouble with this and usually catch it.  Not this time.

re: "I suspect Khamenei's first demand will be a new constitution under which he may refuse to run for office."

It refers to hone of his demands after being sworn in as Iran's president--demands that--coming from anyone else--the regime would simply deplore and harass the source.  

Coming from the grandson of the regime's founder, especially after a landslide election vitory and a new power base, it's a powerful endorsement.

I'm not so sure it's scientific thinking

re:  You have a scientific approach

It's more like "grand strategy" based on looking at trying to see the whole picture, alternate scenarios, how the pieces fit together, and where the regime is most vulnerable with the least damage.

re: in time the rest will eventually fall
into place which is a secular Iran. 

That's the long-run idea.  I suspect Khamenei's first demand will be a new constitution under which he may refuse to run for office.   Such a convention is where Khoumeini, respected by most Iranians, could play the stateman-like role George Washingion, did at the American constitutional convention. 

Without GW, to resolve differences among so many parties with competing views would have been far more difficult.  The constitution also benefitted from the absence of more radical thinkers (Paine and Jefferson)--types who excel at making revolutions but fail at setting up effective and durable governments afterwards. 

Compare Rafsanjani, Ahmadinejad, the Larinjanis and Khamenenei  (all tainted), and notice another unique thing about Khoumeini: he has no faction of his own and never seems to have cultivated one. That suggests an obvious lack of political ambition in a regime where such links are de riguer. 

If Khoumeini allies with supporters of drastic change, such allies come from the one group that lacks a mafia-style capo or lieutenants.  The man obvious disdains clerical involvement in politics and would serve only from duress and lack of an viable substitute. 

re: The 007 nature of the DVD

Without such a DVD, I'd say the chances that hard line clerics will take the risks of assassinating Khoumeini or banning him from running for president may be as better than 50-50. The DVD does more than prevent those two threats.  It also maximizes Khoumeini's freedom to being up sensitive issues.

FG

You have a scientific approach, one that desperately wants to find a quick and effective way to toppling IRI, at least in its current form.  

It won’t kill it but change its behaviour towards a more humanitarian entity, no bloodshed, no foreign invasion.   I see your approach as fighting fire with fire, but from deep within its very source. Even in oil well fires they sometimes put the fire out by exploding it from deep within the well. 

You hope that Khomeini’s grandson could literally act like an internal virus that will attack and weaken IRI to the extent that it mutates into something we can all stomach (not sure about Velayateh Fagih though!!!). People will throw a lot of  ifs  and  buts at this but as far as I am concerned the idea is actually sound.

I have always believed that this regime must tear itself apart from within because its pretending to be conveying god’s message. We still have very many millions in Iran who sincerely believe in Shia Islam’s Hocus Pocus, the “Sineh Zan”  masses need to see IRI for what it really is and decide its time to send Akhoonds back to the mosques as it were.

Someone like this grandson you have highlighted could actually pull this off. I guess if the rule of humane law, moderation and sanity takes over, in time the rest will eventually fall into place which is a secular Iran.  

Your DVD proposals are a bit 007 but frankly that too makes sense and why I called your approach  scientific.

10 unrelated but interesting developments

I've recommended the Khoumeini analysis here to readers at Enduring America where Catmari first brought up the issue.   I'd also like to recommend the following EA  items to readers at this site in return.   EA does a goo job of covering Iran and other Mid-East developments, includes analysis and cautions where it feels caution is due about reports.

1. The captured drone--Iranian regime claims may be bogus. (In Iran roundup.  And don't miss the subpost by analyist James Miller) 

2.  Special detailed piece:

3.  Iranian currency takes another dive (Iran roundup)

4. Iran threatens if Hamas allies over Syria.

5.  Ayatollah Reza Ostadi, a prominent cleric in the religious centre of Qom, has warned that failure to participate in elections --- for example, March's Parliamentary vote --- weakens the nezam (system). (Complete item

Comment: Of course it does.   And with the reformers boycotting and the clerics deeply unpopular, which faction seems to enjoy an election edge?

6. Two Basij militia, linked to the Revolutionary Guards, have been killed near Iranshahr in southeast Iran, an area of Baluch insurgency. (complete item)

7. Basilj organization threatens regime authorities over possible prosecution of 12 arrested in embassy breakins and an interest description of expensive vandalized portraits (in Iran roundup) 

8.In the Syrian section there is more on the Iran/Hamas differences.   _An important-if-true claim, that Iran is trying to convince Hamas to continue its support of Damascus, a clear sign that Iran is threatened by events in Syria, and Hamas has its loyalties increasingly torn..."

9. The Syrian opposition has warned Russia, China and Iran against supporting Assad and future consequences.  Russia and China are supposedly re-assessing their positions (see Syria section).

COMMENT: I wonder if the bad showing by Putin's party (less that 50 percent) in the recent election will affect policy toward Iran and Syria.

10.  ctivists claim that at least a dozen Syrian secret police have defected from an Air Force intelligence complex in Idlib in the northwest. (Syrian section).

Comment: Assad's downfall would hurt Iran's ruling mullahs. Secret police defections are unprecedented.  Throw in the Iranian dispute with Hamas over Syria and reports Russia and China may be wavering and its good news. 

The defectors should good insight into regime's strategy.   Can we expect the same in Iran if trouble breaks out again?

You may be right

The green movement essentially lost all of its momentum on the day when
Mousavi and Karoubi told people to stay inside because protesting was
too dangerous. It went from daily or weekly protests to one protest
every 4 or 5 months, which is essentially useless.You wont overthrow
this regime by protesting for one day every 6 months then going back
home. The movement is basically dead at this point.  The best bet for
some change may be what you have talked about in your article.

If anyone knows a better alternative, I'm listening.

I've offered all the counterarguments I can think of for those who feel a Khoumeini candidacy wouldn't work.  I'd like to ask two questions:

First, what's to lose?  Either way, it hard line clerics between two undesirable choices: Let Khoumeini run, win and speak freely afterwards or...?

Secondly, assuming the mullahs still hold power as presidential elections approach, can you think of any alternative scenario or strategy that isn't worse--including waiting longer for events to ripen?   Let's give the boulder a push.

I believe this scenario potentiall could prevent outright civil wa--unlike all other plausible scenario. 

And if it doesn't (thugs can be stubborn), it could minimize the scale and length by drawing off social elements and forces that would otherwise be available to the mullahs--especially among the pious or anyone still under the illusion they are defending Allah's chosen representative on earth.

With slight revisions and an explanatory call to journalists by a still free and alive Khoumeini, the "insurance DVD I just suggested can also be used to forestall any Guardian Coucil vetting, or mass scale vote rigging, or (should the latter occur) any crackdown on protestors afterward. 

Khoumeini's "If you read this letter, I am a dead man" DVD

To suggest such a DVD  sounds melodramatic, but it is essential given known patterns of regime behavior.  The sooner the better, before its too late.

Ahmadinejad claims to have provided such "insurance" seems to have inhibited the regime's behavior.  Khoumeni and his family needs similar protection.  All the regime needs to know is that such insurance exists but it should not have access to specific content.

REVISING THE OPENER: "If you are watching this I am probably dead or I or members of my family have come under arrest or assault from the Supreme Leader." 

An unspecified number of "Just in case" DVDS be delivered to friends and
family with instructions for immediate distribution to You Tube at the
first sign of an asssault on Khoumeini or family members. Some holders should be outside Iran, including possibly a journalist the family can trust.

YOU TUBE--THE WAY TO GO!: It gets the box out of the cat beyond recall.  The video would likely reach every Iranian household in Iran, Arab Spring viewers everywhere and foreign media.

DVD SHOULD DRAW ATTENTION TO THREE KINDS OF THINGS

1. Crimes on Election Day and Since: the regiime's totalitarian tactics, its treatment of minorities, its central doctrine, Khamenei's fitness as a moral role model for Iranians, the "unislamic nature" of the hard liner's behavior and the degree to which political power has corrupted the clergy.

2. Any personal attacks or threats made against the Khoumeinis by the regime and its thugs and on other clerics or their mosques.

3. Pre-2009 crimes: A generation of Iranians angered by present regime crimes needs to be reminded of immense crimes committed by these same hard liners before many current protestors were born or while they were too young to notice. Some of the folowing seem to be forgotten

PRE-2009 INCIDENTS WORTHY OF RENEWED PUBLIC SCRUTINY

--The family's suspicions about the death of Khoumeini's son which make the DVD necessary.  This should draw attention to a pattern of convenient, improbably by timely "heart attacks" by regime critics (the prison doctor) and how they are possible.

--The death squads and Khamenei's highly incriminating behavior when they were exposed.

--The fate of thousands murdered without trial in the late eighties, including the alleged deflouroing of young girls on the night before their execution.

--The Abadan fire because it presents a case study in microcosm of how the thuggish mullahs who control Iran today have always worked.  How many were killed?  Exactly how (the circumstances are gruesome)?  Why Abadan and not elsewhere? (targeting a minority).  What was the context (extreme Islamist clerics forced the closure of over 100 theaters).  Why commit such a horrible crime( motive +intimidation.  Who did the extremists blame for the fire? Haven't we seen that pattern elsewhere?

--The acid attacks, disfigurement and blinding directed randomly at Iranian women who wore makeup and jeans in public.  Who had motive?  Why werre anonymous, Basilj-like individuals involved?  Why were the attackers not arrested or other women protected?

OPTION: In the last week of any campaign, Khoumeini may want to draw attention to one or two of the pre-2009 issues people seem to have forgotten.

Responding to Hamsade

RE: "the article's underlying premise is that there are actual legitimate elections held in iri." 

My post said elections have been rigged but if Khoumeini run, the regime might not be able to do it successfully for once.

RE: "there's no chance that someone can
enter the election who can challenge the status quo."

You keep comparing Khoumeini to normal candidates. He'd be far harder to ban.  What proves that is the harsh criticisms he's got away with, even when made to western reporters.   Could anyone else do that?

RE:"any candidate who is selected by the guardian council has to vow his allegiance to vf and iri's consititution."

In this case the Guardian Council would face a lose-lose position.  Khomenei can take the oacth and renounce it as "an illegal requirement taken under duress" once in office.  The ruling clerics hesitate to oust or arrest Ahmadinejad.  Doing so to Khoumeini would be orders of magnitude riskier.

RE: "as soon as a candidate veers off from point #2, he'll be kaput ...refer to shariatmadari, montazeri, bani sadr,
mousavi, karoubi,"

Aleady answered above.

RE: "no one in the right mind will put their life on the line for someone named khomeini."

Iranians want the mullahs out and most aren't going to throw away perhaps the best powerful weapon in their arsenal for such silly reasons. What rational Iranian would blame Khoumeini's grandson for events in 1979 or argue that political views are hereditary?

Khoumeini's name, democratic political views and reputation for decency, make him a powerhouse candidate against any opponent who lacks all three.   It works FOR the opposition. Khomeini can even draw away even some of Khamenei's fervent religious supporters because of superior credentials and his self-evident moral contrast to Khamenei.  He'd likely be running against enemies who were allied in 2009 but not this time.

RE: "there never was or never will be a hero for iranian people with a
turban on his head." 

Toppling a regime like this requires all the allies you can get at home and broad and depriving enemies of he same. Do you prefer to venting your emotions or getting rid of the ruling mullahs?.    You can't have both.

You'd reject potential allies based solely on what clothes they wear, their past family history, or views some have long since rejected.  You'd exclude clerics who always scorned clerical rule and those who once did and have become disillusioned.  Why not also reject ordinary Iranians who became disillusioned? Clerics too can change their minds based on sad experience. 

STUDY YOUR HISTORY: Avoid attacking Islam and all clerics as a group unless you want to create a counterrevolutionary force like the Vende in France after 1789.  Revolutions that go to extremes almost alway fail and end up going full circle. Iranians don't need a Robespierre.

  i agree with kazem's

  i agree with kazem's observations and few other points:

1. the article's underlying premise is that there are actual legitimate elections held in iri. meaning that there's a chance that someone can enter the election who can challenge the status quo.

2. any candidate who is selected by the guardian council has to vow his allegiance to vf and iri's consititution.

3. as soon as a candidate veers off from point #2, he'll be kaput (as kazem pointed out).  refer to shariatmadari, montazeri, bani sadr, mousavi, karoubi, ....

4. after 32+ years of hell, no one in the right mind will put their life on the line for someone named khomeini.

5. there never was or never will be a hero for iranian people with a turban on his head.  in fact, the whole hero business is overrated.

Discouraging Khoumeini's assassination

I doubt the mullahs can make Khoumeini an offer he can't refuse.   Nor do I think for a moment that he's the "friendly face of the Islamic Republic" a la Mohammed Khatami.

The young Khoumeini has criticized the IR and its central doctrine in a way that would have gotten ANYONE ELSE executed, beaten to a pulp or jailed for years.  As for a deal, what could they offer him? His scorn for the Islamic Republic, Khamenei's totalitarian behavior and the central IR doctrine will match any reader on this site.

If Khoumeini's grandson has suspended harsh criticism for now, it's almost certainly a tactical move.  Nothing this regime has done in the interim would have led him to change his mind about the value of this regime.  The opposite is the case.

To speak out now, especially before he announces a candidacy and while things are low key, could lead to a Moussavi/Karoubbi-style house arrest. The regime needs and excuse to move and can't do so without one.  Khoumeini must not supply it.

That's one of three reasons he should announce NOW.  Doing so would also make any attempt to abolish presidential elections or to assassinate Khoumeini far more difficult.   At the time of the announcement, if I were Khoumeini, I'd include one more item in my speech and videotape and distribute multiple copies in advance since the regime's media will avoid the speech or at least this segment.  Here it is:

"As I make this announcement, I wish to remind the Iranian people of the untimely and suspicious death of another member of my family some years ago.  His views on human rights resembled my own and I believe they led to his death. If something similar should happen to me during this campaign, I ask you to use common sense in deciding who had by far the best motives.  Do not accept any theory that blames foreign nations or agents or Iranians whose views resemble my own.  Ask yourself who has reason to fear reeform and a record of thwarting it."

I'd also have a second, "If you are watching this video, I'm dead" video distributed secretly to a number of people in case of need. Suggesting moves like this would sound ridiculous in any ordinary context but we all know its essential insurance in this case.

Finally, if Khoumeini announced now, I'd  keep campaigning low key temporarily, doing so just enough to keep in the public eye and stressing only general  issues like pleas for free speech and press and the release of political prisoners,  Save the touchier stuff for later.  I refer to issues such as who is responsible for regime crimes, whether a new constitution is essential that gives more power to the people, and whether political power corrupts Islam and its clergy.

As elections heat up and Khoumeini acquires overwhelming public momentum and widespread attention at home and abroad, it will be far easier to say things that would have gotten Moussavi and Karoubbi jailed in the middle of their campaigns.  In Khoumeini's case the red line goes further because the regime is in a natural political bind.

Your Least Informed About Iran Visitor thinks Hassan's the Man

dear FG..., my view again :: Only the CLERICS have the arrows sharp enough to Kill the Beast.

MY question to you : is there any indication that Hassan will challenge the IRI ? Who are his allies ?

Possible Scenarios

1)    Is the  grandson genuine as described by FG? 

IF HE IS NOT another Khatami (good cop) in waiting to ease the pressure on IRI and  make friends with the West  and keep the Akhoondism  going  then:

·        Khamenei will speed up the no presidency campaign and there won’t be any  presidential elections and danger neutralised.        

OR

·        Khomaini will be given an offered he can not refuse (Horses head) and will keep away from taking part.       

OR

·        Between now and then he meets his sudden unexplained death.         

OR

·        The elections will be so well rigged this time around that Khomaini will lose (however the greens or should I say people may not let it go that easily this time, so very risky for IRI).

2)     If he is IRI’s secret weapon ie the friendly face of Islamic Republic then potentially it could take a good few years before people realise they have been had again.  Then he "may" turn out to be the worst thing that can happen to Iran. 

What does it say about Islamist "Greens"....

That having Emam's grandson run for the IRI's so-called "presidency" is their great hope and grand strategy??? Does this mean that "Doraan-e Talaee-yeh Emam" will be implemented by Emam's own flesh and blood rather than by his mere faithful servant (to this very day) Mousavi? What a sick joke, indeed.

Don't hold your breath!

       One could have thought similarly about candidacy of Mosavi, "the prime minister of Imam"! ...and where is he now?!

you have a point, FG

I also agree w/ BacheShirazi that Hussain Khomeini is even a stronger opponent of this tyrannical regime, but HUssain will not see the light of the day if he returns.  I also think that Hassan Khomeini, or his close associates, may get tied to a "scandal" to prevent him from running for office, without offending the Khomeini clan and his supporters.  Needless to say, this is all a selection process, not a true election, and none of these religious figures should be running to begin with. 

Good one.

No to Shah or Shiekh

ایران برای همه ایرانیان
رای ایرانیان - دولت ایرانیان
نه ولایت وقیح نه پادشاه سفیه

It's strange

All of Khomeini's grand children turned out to be decent people. Husain Khomeini even calls for the entire overthrow of the Islamic republic, he even met with Reza Pahlavi!