FG

The ex-CIA spy sounds he

The ex-CIA spy sounds he knows what he is talking about. Thank for the CSM link.

A state of war only serves as an excuse for domestic tyranny.--Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn.

More fascinating stuff from an ex-CIA spy in the IRCG

The two articles described here have appeared in the opinion section at Christian Science Monitor. The first one is from January 26th.  The second is from January 4th but could explain some recent reports of new death squads targeting the IRCG.

Here is the introductory summary from an ex-CIA agent in the IRCG:

 Leading Iranians are criticizing the regime,
including its war-like provocation and the foreign sanctions aimed at
its nuclear program. One Revolutionary Guard commander calls Iran's war
threats 'the same stupidity' and miscalculation that preceded the
Iran-Iraq war.

And here's a fascinating excerpt:

Most revealing, though, is the warning of one Revolutionary Guard commander, in an anonymous letter to the opposition group Green Experts of Iran.
The letter, posted on the group’s web site, says that the current
commanders of the various armed forces appointed by Khamenei are
delusional about their capabilities and have no clue as to the
consequences of a war with America.

The dissident commander cites a
disastrous miscalculation made by religious and military leaders
leading to the Iran-Iraq War. Revealing the cause of the war, the
commander says that Iraq’s Saddam Hussein repeatedly demanded of the Iranian ambassador to Baghdad that Iran recognize Iraq’s sovereignty and cease encouraging the Iraqi Army to revolt against Iraqi leadership.

Iranian leaders dismissed these warnings as mere psychological warfare
and continued to openly berate the Mr. Hussein despite reports from
Iranian intelligence and friendly countries that Iran was miscalculating
Hussein’s power. The denial of the possibility of a real war led the
leaders to mislead their own people.

At the time, I was serving in the Revolutionary Guard but as a CIA spy. I saw firsthand how the faithful were incited to believe that victory over Iraq was a given and that the destruction of Israel would be next. I saw up close how children as young as 10 to 12 years old were given machine guns and sent to the front

FG ASKS QUESTIONS

I hate to defend Saddam.  I personally never heard about Saddam's alleged demand previously.  If true, it is exactly the sort of poking one's nose in a hornet's nest that the regime can't resist elsewhere.  That's what makes it credible.

...How many Iranians knew about Saddam's alleged demand? How many believe it in light of the way the mullahs have always connived against neighbors? If it did happen, Saddam's subsequent military response is not surprising.

...Assuming covert action counts and if Khamenei could have easily stopped that covert action, who was the initial aggressor? 

...Do you think Saddam would have attacked Iran if Khamenei had changed that policy?

...If you think a change of policy would have deterred war, who is most to blame for all the deaths, crippling and deformity on both sides?

...Why did Khamenei and his advisors imagine think they could get away with persisting in such a policy since they had to now that, after the embassy seizure, hostage taking and taunting, the US would hardly intervene to protect Iran as it did later in Kuwait?

Saddam's attack on Iraq never made much sense to be except as an attempt to exploit Iran's breach with the US after the embassy seizure and hostage taking. 

ANOTHER EXCERPT:

“Now, as a full-fledged commander with several honors during the
[Iran-Iraq] war, which for security reasons I cannot divulge,” the
dissident commander tells Green Experts, “I perceive the comments made
by the high-ranking commanders of the Iranian military, especially
regarding the issues surrounding the threat of blocking the Hormuz
Strait and prohibiting American and NATO
fleets from entering, [as] exactly the same stupidity that lingers from
the period just before the beginning of the Iran-Iraq War. I envision
the US invasion of Iraq, and it makes me shudder.”

The commander
cites another appalling miscalculation of the Iran-Iraq War: the
decision to send two Iranian gunboats against US warships in the Persian Gulf that were there to keep oil flowing. The Iranian speedboats fired on a helicopter from the USS Vincennes, putting the ship’s captain on heightened alert. When an Iran Air civilian plane later took off for Dubai, the Vincennes mistook it for an Iranian warplane and shot it down, killing all 290 aboard.

The
commander warns the Iranian leadership that a war with the United
States is not like a war with an Arab nation – Iraq: “You will not
survive...”

//www.csmonitor.com/Commentary/Opinion/2012/0...

ALSO SEE:

From an ex-CIA spy: US must exploit new split in Iran's Revolutionary Guard

//www.csmonitor.com/Commentary/Opinion/2012/0...

OPENING SUMMARY

A serious split is developing within Iran’s powerful Revolutionary
Guard. The West must leverage that split in support of regime change
before the Islamic Republic successfully tests nuclear weapons.

FG: The first sentence offers one more probable motive for alleged attacks on IRCG generals by a new death squad:

"A serious split is developing within Iran’s powerful Revolutionary Guard, with one faction favoring the overthrow of the dictatorial regime."

(I have to wonder if intelligence sources close to Khamenei read this article, which was followed by the open criticism of four IRCG generals.--FG)

FG: Great round up. I

FG: Great round up. I always look forward to your analysis.

A state of war only serves as an excuse for domestic tyranny.--Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn.

If four IRCG commanders died, death squads are likely answer

DISINFORMATION: YES OR NO?

Sometimes folks post stories like this for fun or to annoy the regime, in which case they'll be debunked shortly.  Even if the dead generals turn out to be myth,  that hardly rules out death squads later.  One likely target down the road would be Khoumeini's highly inconvenient grandson.   

IF DEATHS ARE CONFIRMED, IT'S WAY TOO MANY COINCIDENCES

You would have three coincidences in one, each improbable.   Four serving IRCG commanders dying in four days would be highly unusual.  That all would be in an unlikely age bracket (five years apart) is striking.  To occur just after four retired ex-IRCG commanders spoke out against Khamenei's totalitarian tendencies is implausible timing.

No name is provided for the executed officer--not surprising in a regime with a past history of show trials for generals and secret executions en masse.  Notice that we are given two details which someone can check.  Is an Air Force officer missing?  Have his buddies noticed?

For IRCG officers: You need not conspire against a regime to fall victim in a purge.  To be suspect--even via anonymous sources-- can suffice.  Do you have a family or friend who makes trouble?  Did you know of disloyalty in the rank and fail to report it.  If so, see: 

//www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/GERkludge.htm

THE PRIME SUSPECT HAS A KNOWN CRIMINAL RECORD

In fair trials, a prosecutor cannot bring up a defendant's previous criminal record unless the defendant's lawyer "opens the door" by making a mistake.  However the can take one's record into account when rendering sentence after a guilty verdict.

Having so many illegal privileges as a defendant, does Khamenei deserve the same right to exclude past crimes in the evidence against him? Unlike juries, the public at large may be well acquainted with a defendant's criminal history.  Iran's public does not enjoy as much freedom of information as westerners but it has enough, some of it first hand.  Those who didn't acquired plenty of motive to look it up since 2009.   

1. Moral scruples have never restrained Khamenei.

2. Khamenei has "a record" (i.e., he has used death squads in the past).

3. Khamenei confirmed that involvement by his subsequent cover-up (Who did he target when those death squads were exposed?)

4. Khamenei has a history of relying on tactics that worked in the past and always seems to shrug off any potential downsides as unlikely. 

5. Khamenei's regime has knowledge and access to poisons that mimic a heart attack and leave no physical traces (See item #1 again).

Alleged past victims included Khoumeini's own son, an inconvenient critic of totalitarian proclivities, the death squad member believed to have carried ot that assignment, and an outspoken doctor who served in Khamenei's most notorious post-election prison and refused to keep his mouth shut.

6. Khamenei has sufficient motive.  He is well aware of defections in event of Syrian and his regime's widespread unpopularity.

7. Khamenei has engaged in political and military purges previously.

8. Khamenei has history of imitating Nazi and especially Soviet tactics of control previously (See: Goebbels, show trials, public confessions, etc.)

The IRCG prototype would be Stalin's 1937 purge in which over 300,000 officers above the rank of captain were murdered, modified to fit widespread discontent, economic failures, the loss of public trust since 2009 and the inability to monopolize propaganda. Death squads working covertly and relying on surprise heart attacks and convenient accidents are preferable to mass arrests and show trials given current circumstances.

Khamenei has also relied on another Stalin tool, salami tactics.  You pick off one enemy at a time and most dangerous first (IRCG unreliables), then you dispose of worrisome ex-allies.   

TIME FOR THE VERDICT

Do I believe death squads have been revived? 

If the deaths of those four officers, their ages and the timing can all be confirmed, I'd say the conclusion that Khamenei is guilty is surely reasonable.   Certainly it would be sufficient to justify an investigation by impartial outsiders with full access to all potential witnesses and sources without interference, intimidation or "bugging."

An innocent regime would welcome such an investigation.  Refusal to allow it ("obstruction of justice") is plausible evidence of guilt.  Let's not muddy the water by drawing comparison to a defendant's right against self-incrimination ("taking the fifth" in the USA). Khamenei and other suspects would not have to testify against themselves but merely to provide totally unfettered access to any other evidence or witnesses.

The Iranian public, like the public elsewhere, is subject to a jury's limitations when it comes to reaching conclusions. Has Khamenei revived his death squads? Are the probable targets as reported?   If I were an IRCG officer or a member of Ahmadinejad's faction, I would immediately try to confirm or disprove the deaths of four generals and related details.  If they turn out to be accurate, I'd act logically rather than hope my name doesn't appear on someone's list.  When confronted with one's executioners, denials are worthless.