Faramarz

Cousin Farmarz,

Just like you, I hope and wish for Iran to become a respectful part of the international community something IRI has failed miserably at.  However, I am well aware and of belief that respectful part of the international community is not achieved by absolute submissiveness or one sided deal but by doing the hard work and dealing with others with respect while expecting to be dealt with respect.  We both agree that IRI is not "IT", where we might be in disagreement is that an American backed regime change NOT necessarily will be IT either.

We need to invest in our own people and believe in our own capabilities.

'Hambastegi' is the main key to victory 

Mehrdad

Bahram G.

مهدی فراری دنبال مرد یکدست میگرده ولی ستوان جرارد در تعقیبشه!

//www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ho_vJ2LHYQw&feature...

Mammad, Simply Put

Once Iran becomes a respectable member of the world community again, it should be able to trade with any country without the fear of being cheated. The bread and butter reference is in response to those who are afraid of Iran doing business with the US or the west.

As for as the fear of a military invasion, killing and looting, Obama has said it repeatedly that it is not in the cards. But in the past 33 years, there has been major killing and looting in every corner of Iran by the Regime, simply put.

Oon Yaroo

You are absolutely bang on! The people who believe that the savage oppressors in Iran without outside intervention - not necessarily through military action, are just fantasists.
They much rather Iranians go down the path of martyrdom and men and women dying heroic deaths.
Gaddafi's opponents were well organised mercenaries armed with assault weapons and sub-machine guns but even they could not topple Gaddafi without NATO and US help. And Gaddafi could not even come close to the Islamic Republic in the barbaric savagery league table. The IR with its 500 'official' executions tops all tyrannies by a country mile.
To call for humanitarian support you would be deemed a 'traitor' but standing idly by why your country is laying to waste is 'heroic'.
Furthermore, American hegemony fortunately or unfortunately had already taken place. Go to Europe and you will see scores of McDonalds and KFC restaurants and Starbucks. It is already dominating the world through its multinational companies and subsidiaries.
On the one hand you say no to American intervention because it would come at a heavy economic price but on the other hand you want American spare parts for planes. You are opposed to sanctions. You want American technology and know-how in industrial, agricultural and commercial in the sector. This makes no sense! Sorry to say this but Uncle Sam already owns you! Absolutely delusional way of thinking with no concept of reality.

Glad to see you Oon Yaroo jaan

I have asked you in another post if Mehdi Farrari aka as Mehdi CHaahi. Somehow I did not receive a reply . I hope, in your usual graciousness to me, you would answer my question. Wishing you an early happy and most blissful new year.

It is simply probability, stupid!

The probability of Iranians getting themselves rid of IRR, Mullahs, Islam, Ali, Hossien, Hassan, ..., Mehdi Farrari, ect. through evolution and social movements, etc. = 0.000001.

The probability of Iranians getting themselves rid of IRR through US military strikes is = 0.999999!

If you are curious, I can show you how you can arrive at these two probabilities!

It's simple probability, stupid!

Bahram and Mammad

Bahram: you asked "who the hell are the millions who pour in the streets and chant the praises of the living imam," Iran has a population of ~65 million. Assuming 10-15 % support for IRI that is about 9 million. Those are the people you see in the street. Now throw in a box of Sandis and some free buses and no problem. You got the "millions" you are talking about. 

Honestly if IRI was so popular why does it have to be so violent. Why all the rough measures on any dissent or gathering. They are obviously afraid of people; if they were not they would let people express themselves.

Mammad: the issue is not us asking for military intervention. USA is not in the business of taking orders from IC posters. The point for me is how do Iranians handle an intervention. We have a choice of being prepared to work for a free; intact and democratic Iran. Or stomp our feet saying "illegal". I suggest being a realist and prepared. The bit about "making our own bread and service our car ..." is about independence. There is a misconception that "independence" means isolation. That is simplistic. No nation including USA makes all its own things. Iran should be integrated into the world just like other nations. That is all.

Simplistic view

Do you make your own bread, grow your own vegetables, service your own car and, cut your own hair?

What is the relation between such simple matters and military intervention in Iran that will not only destroy the country, but also will lead to its disintegration, and set the region on fire for years to come? And given that these consequences will come at a heavy price, not only for the nation, but also for the invaders, why will the latter settle down for anything but the loot of everything?

We need to be a deeper thinker than that.

Mammad

Question

I keep reading all about how the mullahs are on their last leg and how everyone hates them in Iran. So who the hell are the millions who pour in the streets and chant the praises of the living imam, aka as Ali geda, at a nod from him? Am I wrong? All the clips I see are photoshop things from the past and doctored propaganda? Even here, at IRDC, some bloggers continue supporting the mullahs.

To all those AZ MAA BEHTARAAN residents of this virtual community who profess a great deal of knowledge and wisdom, I say: please relieve me of my bewilderment. I will be much obliged.

Mehrdad Jaan

Happy holidays to you and your family and your new dog!

I am not at all suspicious of the US and the west. They will eat your lunch if you let them.

The ones that I am suspicious of are the Russians and the Chinese. Bushehr and Tupolev are the prime examples of people eating your lunch and not delivering.

Also, in this day and age when a man cannot get a “free” kiss from his woman, what do you expect the free enterprise system do?

Cousin Faramarz: I guess you won’t be surprised…

If I say I am with Divaneh aziz regarding this issue, completely.

The problem as I see it with the American and the West in general, their help is conditional and attached with the very high price tag.  A price tag that Iranians, if aware or asked, may not want to pay.

Lastly, few realistic/pragmatic Iranians are against any business dealing and cooperation with the American companies, if they are based on mutual benefit and respect of both sides.

Thanks for the blog and Merry Christmas and happy holidays to you and your family.

'Hambastegi' is the main key to victory 

Mehrdad

Happy Boxing Day!

What is clear to me is that the Iranian protest movement after getting detained, tortured and killed has gone from streets to shouting Allah Akbar from the rooftops and now is in front of their computers in the basement. What is also clear is that the Regime is in a state of fear and the sanctions are having a serious impact and sooner or later it will end up like N. Korea, a poor and paranoid military state. And like all Communist states, they will be good in distributing poverty and misery.

Now the question remains what should the Iranians ask for the next time that they are back on the streets. Back in 2009, Obama came under heavy criticism for not condemning the violence immediately. But to be fair to him, he wasn’t sure who was out on the streets of Iran and he was pursuing his campaign promise of “giving diplomacy a chance. The quote of the day was, “is this the Iran that we want to embrace or bomb?”

Next time around, the regime having learned a lesson or two from Libya and Syria will be more brutal and I believe that the Iranian protestors will not act as “human waves” during Iran-Iraq war walking on mine fields with plastic keys to heaven around their necks. They will ask for help. And at that point, asking Facebook and Twitter to change their maintenance hours so that Iranians can communicate to the world will not be sufficient.

There is a wildcard here as well. The Regime like a chess player that is in a tough position may miscalculate and sacrifice a Bishop or a few pawns to get some breathing room. In that situation, the west will come in with a heavy hand and unfortunately the Iranians will not have much to say about the scope of the actions.

In a Revolutionary climate No option should be off the table...

 So long as the Iranian people are in charge of the situation and the end game of replacing the Fascist islamist regime with a secular democratic republic is guaranteed and not compromised in any way...

Unity of opposition under key democratic principals is  the key to success of any such strategy. The pathetic fragmentation and in fighting we see on internet sites is by no means a representation of a very dynamic fast growing opposition movement in Iran, which is being increasingly led by independent,militant actions of working classes, and not a bunch of had been regime insiders who dream of "reforming" this fascistic islamist dictatorship by taking it back to a "golden age" when political prisoners were executed by thousands per week, when punishment for distributing a political leafelet was execution on the spot, on the street corner..

This fascist regime must and will go. Every single  leader and supporter of this fascist dictatorship must and will be brought to justice for their crimes against Humanity and their treason to Iran, no matter where and how hard they try to  hide on this planet.

Houshang

I know we have ideological differences concerning the Shah and the Iranian Left so I do not want to re-open old wounds. Whether the Shah was a cowards- as you best like to remember him, or a King who refused to engage in further  bloodshed-decided to remain and use the full might of his military capability to quieten the unrest then the demonstratiions in 1979 would have been put down in the same brutal manner as it did in the summer and winter of 2009. The Shah was armed to the hilt but for whatever reason he did not use them. 

More people joined in the demonstations of 2009 than they did in 1979- and there was certainly no lack of solidarity. All Iranians rallied around Mousavi as a platform to vent their anger against the regime in the same way people rallied behind Khomeinei. It wasn't solidarity alone which destroyed the Shah's monarchy but his decision to go into exile for whatever reason. The IR Terrorist thugs learned this lesson very well and if they had granted the tiniest concession to the protesters in 2009 as they did with the Shah then Seyed Ali Khamenei would be in Syria. 

IR will be overthrown by Iranian social movements, just as shah

was overthrown by them.

The slow-motion economical collapse, increased international isolation, intensification of struggle amongst the IR leadership, the existence of a vast internal social opposition still not subdued after all these years of repression...all point out to IR inability to cope with any of these crisis.

The only instrument they have had so far in response has been violence, but even violence has it limits, and it looks as if they've exhausted that option as well.

P.S. Solidarity movement in Poland was successful in removing USSR, but an abysmal failure as far as improving workers' livelihood.

PS.S. Foreign intervention is condemned under any disguise and slogan; be it socialist, humanitarian,...

Hooshang

What you say (your content) is very important as part of the solution, but in your approach, unfortunately, you remain part of the problem.

Houshang

I am aware of Iranian trade union activities and how its taking on the IR in its own way. I am also aware of the Iranian trade union leaders such as Shahabi and Mansour Ossalnlou who were sent to jail for their activities. You have also kindly posted news articles in this regard.

However, solidarity itself is not going to set the regime right. In 2009 there was a moment where we were all instilled with hope that an un-breakable Iranian mass movement had started where every one rich and poor; religious and secularists; monarchists to republicans all demonstrating side by side against this regime. It was destroyed. You can have all the solidarity you want but when it is matchd with bullets from a machine gun your opposition will fail.

The slow agonising so-called democratic movement will produce more poster boys like Mr Rakhshan and Neda Agha Soltanis but it won't change a thing. It will create more martyrs and heroes and heroines but the status quo will remain.

Now a Solidariy movement in the Soviet Union was a different kettle of fish. The solidarity movement in Poland and Czechoslovakia were successul because it had outside support especially from Thatcher and Reagan who wanted to see the end of Commmunism. Also the leaders of those countries were not as insane as Seyed Ali Khameni and Ahmadinejad who actually believe that bloodshed and turnoil will pave the way for the coming of Imame Zaman. The petty beaurocrats and oppressors in Poland and Czechoslovakia did not belong to a lunatic messianic cult- they had family themselves and stood to gain nothing from perpetuating the corrupt Totalitarian (State Capitalist - as you call it) system. Even Pope John Paul did his effort to try and support the resitance in those countries so this go-it alone attitude is not realistic. Also, why do you as a genuine communist have anything against outside help? Don't you believe in the internationale or a united global workers struggle? I may be misrepresenting your views so forgive me.

I think with the exception of Lale Urumiyeh, the internal struggle through dissipated organisations and unions are not going to yield results- just more imprisonment and attention to themselves. But nothing will change! 

If this website is any indication of "diaspora" then we're in

real deep do-do.

Just a few days ago, we had a video of a political prisoner Mr. Rakhshan, a blogger that's been sentenced to 15 years or so, and on the same day almost right next to it there was also a video of an old commercial of Azmayesh TV in Iran from the 70s.

The commercial had 1500 viewers, while our political prisoner had less than 400.

The last thing the social movements in Iran need, is some 'leadership' position from us outside the country. What they need is our principled solidarity and unconditional support.

HTG

You are very aware of my positions and know I do not want an Islamic regime. I want a secular "free" government. I wrote about it in detail in other blogs. I don't want to repeat myself too much but I want freedom.

I don't care if Neo Conservatives coined regime change: a broken clock still gets it right twice a day. I want "rights" more than democracy meaning I want to be free of tyranny of majority. Just as much as I want to be free of the tyranny of a king. The reason those nations are Islamic is because they do not reserve rights. Therefore I oppose those governmental models. Well nobody has asked me to write the constitution for Iran. So I am only able to voice my opinion in a very limited way. And that is how it should be! One person: one vote but with the ability to make my case and persuade others.

I am not asking for intervention: that's a given. I have never asked for intervention and nobody would care if I did. I am not that important. However I recognize it is happening and want to at least get us to influence its direction. Do you see the difference? You guys are idealists and that is great. I share many of your ideals. But I am a realist. Intervention is going on right now no matter what. We might as well try to make it be the best possible. If you just sit back and hope "people" will do the right thing you going to get exactly the same results as in Iraq and Afghanistan. Why: because IRI has crushed or exiled any sane opposition. In its absence only the insane remain. 

.

.

We have some of the most advanced social movements in Iran

From women, students, workers, national minorities, religious minorities,...

Some in here are totally ignorant of such movements, or have had zero connections or contributions with them.

Keep in mind that IR despite all its repressive measures, and utilizing ALL ITS SECURITY FORCES (all toghether more than 16 different agencies in Iran) it has not yet been able to push them back, and has only made them more proactive and popular.

All those who dismiss the civil society and its activists in Iran are just demonstrating their ignorance of Iranian society. 

.

Delete please

Simorgh

I said what I had to say. If you don't see what is happening under the skin of the society and to the ruling power in Iran, then we have completely different perspectives. When it comes to the West, it is unfortunate that internal policies of US, UK and France has nothing to do with their foreign policies.

I am in total agreement with VPK that comments posted here or any other opinion will not affect the US decision. That decision is formed by consideration of US interests. So, lets not spend too much time on this.

VPK, what's needed in Iran is a lot more than a mere " regime

change."

This is a corrupt terminology invented by neo-cons,
and some of us Iranians have been so influenced and brainwashed by it
that we forget what happened as a direct result of such glorious "regime
change" in Iraq and Afghanistan.

The result of "regime change" by US and its allies :

TWO ISLAMIC REPUBLICS on both sides of Iran;

Islamic Republic of Iraq

Islamic Republic of Afghanistan.

Is that what you want to achieve by your  glorious "regime change" through foreign assistance?!

What we need, and hopefully will soon see in Iran is; a people's revolution of Iranians, by Iranians for Iranians.

When
Divaneh (the only sane one in this discussion so far) sites the
distinction between Tunisia and Libya, we ought to be very careful of
our choices.

If you thought moving from shah to khomeini took took
us back for decades,keep in mind that any foreign intervention and the
consequent hell created by it will make IR look like paradise.

Divaneh

You didn't asner my question.

Where is your dmocracy movement in Iran?

1. Whose the leader?
2. Where are its leaders?
3. What is the name of the political party(ies) 
4. Where is the Head Quarters? Does it have official status?
5. Is there a hierarchical structure with organised divisions of units?
6. Are there any opposition newspapers, publications or internet sites legally operating in Iran? 
7. What significant successes have they had in the judicial system? Any court precedent protecting or giving recognition to their political objectives?
8. How many supporters are there? I want figures please
9. What political or social change have they brought in the law in the last thirty-three years?
10. How have they been able to change the conditions for women, religious and ethnic minorities? 
11. How has the democracy movement changed the human rights condition in Iran?
12. How have they been able to change the working condition of journalists, bloggers and freedom of expression?
13. What happened to the supporters of the 2009 demonstrations?

Dear BacheShirazi

Please let me clarify my positions:

I do not in any way propose Iran invade any nation. I said on Ayatoilet's blog it is insanity to do so. All I said is to have USA "recognize" Iranian rights to those regions. No action needs to be taken. It will simply give Iran the leverage to get its 50% of Caspian Sea resources. Of course there will not be any annexation. If it ever happens it must be with an overwhelming majority votes of those nations. However it will put a damper on separatism. 

Regarding guarantees of the region it will be like it was prior to 1979. A powerful Iran kept the other nations in line. Nothing more or less than that. Iran is very much able to stop pouring fuel on the mess in both Iraq and Afghanistan. It is also able to send peacekeeping forces to Afghanistan. We speak their language and know their customs. An Iranian soldier will be far better suited to work with Afghans than an American. Same goes for Iraq and in fact I was reading "you get respected in southern Iraq if you speak Farsi". Iranians are just better able to deal with those nations than Americans. No Iran will not be able to "guarantee" safety. But it will be a heck of a lot simpler for Iran. 

VPK

Exactly, an invasion of Iran is just not going to happen. That's why these discussions of begging the U.S to come free us are pointless. And I don't think some of your proposed negotiations with the U.S are realistic. Iran is able to deter others from invading its own territory. But guaranteeing the security of both Iraq and Afghanistan are in my opinion beyond Iranian capability. If the U.S and its western allies, with their top militaries are failing, then I don't see how Iran, with its inferior military could persuade the U.S that it is up to the job. Iran would lose tons of troops and would probably withdraw in the end.

Iran getting Azerbaijan is also unlikely. Would Iran invade and try and annex them? Even if Iran was able to annex Azerbaijan forcefully how would Iran govern a country of 9 million people that don't want to be part of Iran? 

Divaneh Jan

We don't have a choice because America will act no matter what. The single option we have is to influence its path. America and Israel are not going to let IRI remain. It will either be by breaking it up or regime change.

I rather see the latter and with a heavy does of our input: wouldn't you? If I was given a choice I would pick a democratic secular Iran with 100% control of all our resources. But we are not going to get it. Nor will our posts here make a difference. 

The realistic chance we got is to support the best which to me is RP. He is the one person to keep Iran intact and bring about a regime change. I know some hate him but I don't care. We got to use what we got. I wish he would get moving.

Simorgh

I know your position and it has never changed, so please spare me of this nonsense. The number of Iranian who can be killed in a likely war with Iran will be by far greater than those who have been killed by the regime or who can be killed in any liberation movement. If foreigners get to rule Iran, then you may as well kiss Iran goodbye.

This regime is criminal but it is Iranian. It has to go or get changed, and that is an Iranian issue. We had our experience of bloodshed and jerk movements and now it is time for a proper solution. Democracy in Western countries has hundreds of years of history. We don't want to wait that long but must understand that it takes time for democracy to born out of internal struggles between people and government and the fall out between different factions in power.

Unlike you, I do not see an opposition force such as the Syria liberation army of any use in a dictatorial society. In such cases a lot of people get killed for one thief to replace another.

Tunisians can look to a better future but Iraqis and Libyan will not because their change was forced from outside.

I ignored your comment about California and sun. Try not to drag the debate to such low.

BacheShirazi

I realize that USA is not in a position to invade Iran. That is why the sanctions are put. It is a much more doable act. It will take America at least another 2-3 years before it could even contemplate action against IRI.

When it does it will be in form of stirring up revolts. That is good reason to worry because it may be in form of separatism. It is much easier to let Kurds and Balouchis do the fighting. 

That is why Iranian Americans need to be active. Not as NIAC does by propping up a hopeless regimes. But by convincing American government that a strong intact Iran is to their benefit. I would give away all the oil for that if it came to it.