As tough as the sanctions are on Iran, it’s very clear that the regime has a complete stranglehold on Iran. Nothing, it seems, will dislodge the regime’s ambitions. Israel sounds like a paper tiger – and the sheer complexity of an attack, plus the serious threat of retaliation makes a unilateral move by Israel against Iran very unlikely.
The United States, is also impotent right now. First of all, there is the subtle fact that the U.S. signed a treaty with the Mullahs in Iran in 1981 – promising NOT to interfere with Iran’s internal affairs. The treaty (called the Algiers Treaty) was ratified by congress during a secret vote (yes, they do have them), and signed by Ronald Reagan no less (all on the back of the U.S. Embassy Hostage release). This quite simply means the U.S. cannot attack Iran - without provocation. And then there is the financial reality of a near bankrupt U.S. treasury, and a simple estimation that a war with Iran surely will cost more than the war in Iraq. This means it could cost more than 1 Trillion dollars – and for what return?? Iraq at least had the world’s second largest UNTAPPED oil reserves. Iran has plenty of Gas – and its oil fields are tapped. Would you spend 2 trillion dollars and bankrupt the U.S. to fight Iran? Is the U.S. electorate ready for that now?
No, the time to invade Iran was 10 years ago, not NOW. Israel will not go it alone, and the U.S. will not play. It’s very clear Iran’s nuclear progress will go unimpeded. And anyway, these Iranian Mullahs are shrewd enough to assemble every piece of the bomb – but not build it. And as everyone in the know (but will NOT publicly admit), Iran has had black-market Nuclear Warheads from former Soviet Republics for over 10 years now and even tested one in 2003.
So, it’s safe to assume – Iran is or will be fully nuclear capable. To quote Netenyahu: “Iran will be fully capable in about 6 or 7 months”!
To put it simply, Israel will not attack Iran. So the question is what is Israel’s plan B, now?
My own view, is that Israel, has always had a plan B. They will use the excuse of an Iranian Bomb, to invade Iranian allies in the region. The plan is to invade Lebanon, and take on Hezbollah. And from there march forward into Syria and carve out land all the way to Turkey’s border. They might even march south from there and carve out a Kurdish state. The Kurds, after all, have been long-time Israeli allies.
The price paid for a bomb by Iran, will be the annihilation of ALL its regional allies. And it’s very clear that Iran will sit impotent while Israel marches on. Iran, surely, will NOT and can NOT use the bomb to protect Hezbollah or Alawite Shiites. After all, Iran’s territorial integrity will not be compromised – so how can Iran justify using the bomb.
Bottom line, while Iran having a bomb will change the strategic calculus in the Middle East; in reality Iran’s strategic position will actually be weakened because of the elimination of all its regional allies. Iran will have invested in a ‘tool’ it simply won’t be able to justify using. And in the process, Iran will have been distracted from investing in other more critical tools that really would have made a difference. One such tool would have been to reinforce Hezbollah, yet their funding in Lebanon has actually gone down.
Let’s not forget that Israel was defeated twice by Hezbollah in Lebanon – and this time, the third time it will be fighting to win.
Israel does have a plan B. All this other talk is just nonsense … And by the way, Europe has a plan B too. The Europeans cannot wait to buy natural gas from another source or two from anywhere except Russia. It won’t be long before Israel’s natural gas get pumped into Turkey’s Nabucco gas pipeline – and it is very possible that Gas from Northern Iraq (Kurdistan) too get pumped into Turkey. And quite likely, gas from Qatar too gets pumped all the way to Turkey. And all that gas will find its way to every one of Russia’s current natural gas clients – Germany, Austria, Ukraine… you name it. Oh, and by the way, Iran too will be cut out of the European market. Not just Russia, but Iran and Iranians will be fucked too.
The great irony of an Iranian bomb is that while the Mullahs will be feeling emboldened and their allies will feel warm and fuzzy being associated with Iran’s Mullahs – in reality it will translate into a huge loss and a distraction for all.
If Plan A is invading Iran, Plan B doesn’t look so bad for Israel and the West. Instead of calling this Plan B, let’s call this Plan G!!
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