There is a secret war against Iran being fought by the U.S. and its allies, which has included the kidnapping of Iranians, assassinations of Iranian scientists and security officials, and terrorist attacks on Iranian border regions. The developing internal divisions in Tehran could be capitalized on by its enemies. Israel is already showing a deep interest in these new political tensions.
It should be noted that Tel Aviv and Washington had prepared to launch a campaign to de-legitimize the Iranian presidential elections in 2009 and to use it to exploit any internal political divisions in Iran. This is documented by the Israeli media. Additionally, this is the reason why the U.S. Congress gave millions of dollars, to establish a special interests office in the U.A.E. for dealing with regime change in Tehran.Here is one extract from a news article about Petraeus’s appointment:
“Today… the US is aware that a war would unleash at the very least a protracted, asymmetrical regional war. Iran’s retaliatory capabilities would span from Hezbollah’s firing of Scud missiles on Tel Aviv, the targeting of US interests in Iraq and Afghanistan and the destabilisation of Shia areas in US-allied Saudi Arabia and Bahrain … all these retaliatory measures are already factored into Washington’s military planning… the Persian Gulf Arab rulers would feel quite confident in containing any domestic turmoil. Also, in the wake of a vast bombing campaign against Iran, out of self-interest, neither Hezbollah nor Hamas would be willing to stand with an ‘imploded’ regional power, he claimed.”
The regime in Iran has already declared that it has developed an asymmetrical strategy to any potential future war. Under this circumstance, the U.S. clearly cannot aim to take on the regime with conventional direct military plans. If there is one lesson from the previous campaigns in both Afghanistan, and Iraq…and now Libya and Syria, is that campaigns are most effective and least expensive when they are conducted under the guise of a civil war. Note how quickly Afghanistan was conquered by Afghan “Northern Alliance” when they were finally properly armed in 2001. Or when the Kurds in Northern Iraq aligned with the West, and in effect made Northern Iraq an island of stability in an otherwise hostile state. Given budgetary constraints in the U.S. too, an asymmetric war now, plays more favorably into U.S. economic calculation. This is basically the right time to fight this type of war, no other option is viable!
Then there is the Israeli dimension to the war with Iran. Contrary to the rhetoric, Israeli military elite have not been fundamentally interested in fighting Iran, but do have a strategic interest in grabbing 50 to 100 kilometres of Lebanon. This “grab” would be marketed as a buffer for protection of Israel from Hezbollah missiles, but in fact has a far more fundamental use for Israel. It will in effect give it a license to exploit the Levanting Oil and Gas fields in the Sea on the border with Lebanon. A field that is said to be so large that it will not only provide for Israel energy needs for the next 100 years, but also make Israel a net energy exporter. The rise of Hezbollah in Lebanon plays beautifully into Israeli hands. A war with Iran would also by extension become a war with Hezbollah and Lebanon.
This is what Israel truly wants. Here’s part of another article: “Secret Israel Drills in Occupied Iraq: Iran in the Cross-Hairs Again?
Challenging Tehran, just like Russia, has always been a strategic objective of Washington and NATO. Tel Aviv has ended its period of brief silence about Tehran and has started to talk about attacking Iran again. What has added an extra dimension to this are the reports that the U.S. has allowed Israel to secretly use U.S. air bases in Al-Anbar, Iraq. Moqtada Al-Sadr has warned Tehran about the Israeli-U.S. operations in Iraq, which could amount to plans for some form of confrontation with Iran, Syria, and the entire Resistance Bloc from Gaza, Beirut, and Bint Jbeil to Damascus, Basra, Mosul, and Tehran.
A military structure, which is tied into NATO, has also been put into place to attack Iran, Syria, and their allies. Under various agreements NATO has established a foothold in the Persian Gulf and military links with the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). France also has a base in the United Arab Emirates. The GCC is also preparing to expand. Both the kingdoms of Morocco and Jordan have made requests to join. Along with GCC membership comes a joint defense structure.
At the same time, the members of the GCC are blaming Iran for their domestic problems.
The strategic alliance between Israel and the Al-Sauds, originally formed to combat Gamal Abdel Nasser, has also positioned itself for the implementation of a broader conflict directed against Iran and its allies.
Missile shields are now in place in Israel and the Arab sheikhdoms. Massive shipments of heavy weaponry have also been sent to Israel, Saudi Arabia, and the GCC by Washington and the major E.U. powers over the last few years.Ankara: The Inside Man?
Ankara, however, has been playing an ominous role. Turkey is a partner in the NATO war on Libya. The position of the Turkish government has become clear with its betrayal of Tripoli. Ankara has also been working with Qatar to corner the Syrian regime. The Turkish government has been pressuring Damascus to change its policies to please Washington and appears to possibly even have a role in the protests inside Syria with the Al-Sauds, the Hariri minority camp in Lebanon, and Qatar. Turkey is even hosting opposition meetings and providing them support.
Turkey is viewed in Washington and Brussels as the key to bringing the Iranians and the Arabs into line. The Turkish government has been parading itself as a member of the Resistance Bloc with the endorsement of Iran and Syria. U.S strategists project that it will be Turkey which domesticates Iran and Syria for Washington. Turkey also serves as a means of integrating the Arab and Iranian economies with the economy of the European Union. In this regard Ankara has been pushing for a free-trade zone in Southwest Asia and getting the Iranians and Syrians to open up their economies to it.
In reality, the Turkish government has not only been deepening its economic ties with Tehran and Damascus, but has also been working to eclipse Iranian influence. Ankara has tried to wedge itself between Iran and Syria and to challenge Iranian influence in Iraq, Lebanon, Palestine, the Caucasus, and Central Asia. Turkey also tried to establish a triple entente between itself, Syria, and Qatar to push Syria away from Tehran. This is why Turkey has been very active vocally against Israel, but in reality has maintained its alliance and military deals with Tel Aviv. Inside Turkey itself, however, there is also an internal struggle for power that could one day ignite into a civil war with multiple players.The petro-sheikhdoms of the Persian Gulf are now systematically preventing Lebanese, Syrian, Iraqi, Iranian, and Pakistani citizens from entering their borders. Kuwait has justified this by saying that there could be trouble within Kuwait due to political instability in these countries.
Damascus has been under pressure to capitulate to the edicts of Washington and the European Union. This has been part of a longstanding project. Regime change or voluntary subordination by the Syrian regime are the goals. This includes subordinating Syrian foreign policy and de-linking Syrian from its strategic alliance with Iran and its membership within the Resistance Bloc.
Syria is run by an authoritarian oligarchy which has used brute force in dealing with its citizens. The riots in Syria, however, are complex. They cannot be viewed as a straight forward quest for liberty and democracy. There has been an attempt by the U.S. and the E.U. to use the riots in Syria to pressure and intimidate the Syrian leadership. Saudi Arabia, Israel, Jordan, and the March 14 Alliance have all played a role in supporting an armed insurrection.
The Al-Sauds have also helped drown out any authentic calls for democratic reform and marginalized the democratic elements in the Syrian opposition during the protests and riots. In this regard the Al-Sauds have supported both sectarian factions as well as terrorist elements, which question the foundations of religious tolerance in Syria. These elements are mostly Salafist extremists, like Fatah Al-Islam and the new extremist political movements being organized in Egypt. They have also been rallying against the Alawites, the Druze, and Syrian Christians.
The violence in Syria has been supported from the outside with a view of taking advantage of the internal tensions and the anger in Syria. Aside from the violent reaction of the Syrian Army, media lies have been used and bogus footage has been aired. Money and weapons have also been funnelled to elements of the Syrian opposition by the U.S., the E.U., the March 14 Alliance, Jordan, and the Khalijis. Funding has also been provided to ominous and unpopular foreign-based Syrian opposition figures, while weapons caches were smuggled from Jordan and Lebanon into Syria.
The events in Syria are also tied to Iran, the longstanding strategic ally of Damascus. It is not by chance that Senator Lieberman was demanding publicly that the Obama Administration and NATO attack Syria and Iran like Libya. It is also not coincidental that Iran was included in the sanctions against Syria. The hands of the Syrian military and government have now been tied internally as a new and broader offensive is being prepared that will target both Syria and Iran.
Syria and the Levantine Gas Fields in the Eastern Mediterranean
Syria is the central piece of two important energy corridors. The first links Turkey and the Caspian to Israel and the Red Sea and the second links Iraq to the Mediterranean. The surrender of Syria would mean that Washington and its allies would control these energy routes. It would also mean that the large natural gas fields off the Lebanese and Syrian coastline in the Eastern Mediterranean would be out of reach for China and would instead go to the Israel, with assistance of the the E.U. and U.S.
The Eastern Mediterranean gas fields have been the subject of negotiations between the E.U., Turkey, Iran, Syria, and Lebanon. Aside from the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) Pipeline, the existence of the Levantine natural gas fields is also the reason why the Kremlin has created a military foothold in Syria for the Russian Federation. This has been done by upgrading Soviet-era naval facilities in Syria. Moreover, it has been Iran that has agreed to explore and help develop these natural gas fields off the Levantine coast for Beirut and Damascus.”If all this seems farfetched, consider news this week from Israel that four top military and intelligence commanders have been relieved of their roles in favor of new leadership that will support a confrontation with Iran. The doves, are being replaced by hawks. In essence, in the U.S. and in Israel, key command positions are being doled out to those that can most capably undertake a clandestine war with Iran (and Lebanon…and perhaps even Syria). Maybe Syria will be spared if regime change there is successful. Will Assad be undermined? Maybe. Iran for sure, knows the dynamic, and has sent reinforcements to Syria to help Assad brutally suppress opposition. And in response to much of this, Iran this week showed off new long range missile capability; and this was quickly followed up with a launch of an Iranian Space rocket. All this leads us to a simple conclusion. Iran is now the next war.
It might for now be a cold war – but it could very well escalate into much more. You have to wonder, exactly how the U.S. and Israel plan to finally topple the regime in Iran.My own analysis is that they will be engaging a multi-dimensional front against Iran utilizing proxy separatist movements in 5 corners of Iran (the Kurds, the Azeris, the Baluchis, the Ahwazi Arabs, and the Turkmens). In every case, the U.S. has been clandestinely expanding training and armaments to Iranian separatist groups, and is also planning on deploying MKO/MEK/PMOI factions on the direct front with Iran. They (the MKO/MEK/PMOI) will be used as sacrificial lambs spearheading the multi-front war with Iran. The West has no real love for the MKO/MEK/PMOI – but they will serve a very useful role in the war with Iran. That is why idiots in the U.S. administration are flirting with them. The analysis, quite simply is, that the IRI cannot undertake a multi-front war with all these armed groups (with supporting air cover from U.S., Israel, and NATO allies). And in the process the IRI regime will fall, but Iran will then be splintered and cut up into multiple independent states. Iran will be no more. The legacy of the IRI will be a completely new map for Iran. Now that we all understand the plan, let me throw my two cents into whether or not this plan can succeed (if anyone from the CIA, DIA, NSA etc. is reading).
1) Iranians (regardless of whether or not they support this regime) are quite nationalistic and will rally with the regime in Iran if they see that Iran’s territorial integrity is at risk. Please look back to see what actually happened when Saddam Hussein invaded Iran. A plan to use separatist movements should be done under the guise of tribes wanting freedom, dignity and protection of their sub-cultures. BUT, and very importantly BUT, make sure nothing is said or done that implies that these groups are fighting to establish new independent states. As I said, anything that compromises Iranian territorial lines will rally Iran’s public. Iranians after all believe that Iran should be a larger Nation – not a smaller one. Iranians have deep cultural and historic roots with all the ‘stans’.
2) Iranians hate the MKO/MEK/PMOI – if they are allied with the U.S.; it will undermine U.S. intentions. If there is a plan to utilize them, do it clandestinely. Put different uniforms on them, close down their base in Iraq, and don’t be so overt with supporting them publicly (tell Bolton etc. to shut up).
3) Avoid, putting the Brits in the midst of all this. Iranians also hate the Brits. It’s not only that they engineered two coups in Iran these past 100 years, but they also engineered the rise of the Mullahs (BBC propaganda was instrumental in toppling the Shah and the rise of Khomeini). The Brits (and BP) also have undermined Iranian sovereignty in the Caspian Sea, and put up a dictatorship in Azerbaijan, and not so long ago engineered the splintering of Afghanistan from Iran. Iranians simply do not accept or believe the Brits have any positive intentions. Again, if the Brits are visibly part of this alliance in the war against the IRI, it will unite Iranians – not splinter them.
4) I think it would be useful to also detail Iran’s involvement in providing arms and explosives to militants in Iraq and Afghanistan. That the IRI increased the cost of those campaigns by almost a trillion dollars. That the IRI also destabilized these nations and extended the campaigns by years. That the U.S. has legitimate reasons to be angry at the IRI. That U.S. soldiers lost limbs and died through direct actions by the IRI. These grievances need to be made very publicly and there should be broad national consensus on this clandestine war. The reason, I am saying this, is that it is likely that the IRI will put up a good fight. They are all seasoned warriors with the Iran-Iraq war; and this clandestine war may turn into a more conventional broad based war. What if the Chinese or Russians step in to protect the IRI? Iran, would be a grand prize for Russia and China too.
5) Take time to reassure Iranians (everywhere) that the U.S. stands steadfast with the People of Iran and will guarantee two things: Iranian territorial integrity and freedom with democracy for Iranians. Do this publicly. Do this loudly. Do this continuously. And by doing this, procure your greatest ally in defeating the IRI – the Iranian people. For they hate the regime and at times have doubted Western sincerity in supporting the justified claims of the Iranian public. Iranians after all have been fighting for their freedom for over 100 years.
Let me finish by just repeating what Secretary of Defense Robert Gates advised incoming Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta in his speech yesterday: “You may be Secretary for a lot longer than you think?” Now, tell me, who would change Defense Secretaries in the middle of a military campaign.
In case you had any doubt that this war is taking hold, let me wrap up with inclusion of part of a very detailed article by James Bramford on how and why the next step for U.S. is a war with Iran:
“War with Iran has been in the works for the past decade or so. Even before the bombs fell on Baghdad, a group of senior Pentagon officials were plotting to invade another country. Their covert campaign once again relied on false intelligence and shady allies. But this time, the target is Iran.“We may face no greater challenge from a single country than from Iran,” Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice declared.In addition, the State Department recently beefed up its Iran Desk from two people to ten, hired more Farsi speakers and set up eight intelligence units in foreign countries to focus on Iran. The administration’s National Security Strategy – the official policy document that sets out U.S. strategic priorities – now calls Iran the “single country” that most threatens U.S. interests.The shift in official policy has thrilled former members of the cabal. To them, the war in Lebanon represents the final step in their plan to turn Iran into the next Iraq. Ledeen, writing in the National Review on July 13th, could hardly restrain himself. “Faster, please,” he urged the White House, arguing that the war should now be taken over by the U.S. military and expanded across the entire region. “The only way we are going to win this war is to bring down those regimes in Tehran and Damascus, and they are not going to fall as a result of fighting between their terrorist proxies in Gaza and Lebanon on the one hand, and Israel on the other. Only the United States can accomplish it,” he concluded. “There is no other way.””
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