This week, we will have the great honor of listening to sabre ratling at the U.N. Bibi Netenyahu, Mr. Romney's buddy will be threatening Iran; and his Excellency, Professor, Dr. Meymoon Ahmadinejad (PhD Political Science, B.S. Civil Engineering), will be responding. And Barack Obama is carefully sidestepping both - having refused a face-to-face meeting with Bibi!
What Americans should realize when they vote this November is that Romney's blindly supporting Netenyahu, Yet, Netenyahu is in fact promoting real negative costs to the U.S. and the world economy. All this war talk from Israel and the threat of an attack on Iran has resulted in a significant premium on Oil Prices. According to the folks at Capital Economics, there is too much "Iran premium" built into crude oil prices already. They argue that the oil markets have gotten ahead of global growth. And with global growth expectations overdone, the premium is now mostly due to the Iran disruption risk. So the question becomes what is the Iran premium?A comparison of trends in equity prices vs. Brent crude indicates Brent should be some $5 -$10 cheaper. That would represent a slight Iran premium.
A second comparison of the global manufacturing PMI index with percent changes in oil price seems to that the premium in crude prices is even higher. Capital Economics actually argues that the Iran premium is therefore between $5 and $25 (not a very helpful range – but that’s the best analysis out there). So simply taking what we have and even assuming a ‘low end premium’ i.e. $5 (no matter how you cut it), what does this mean for the U.S. economy? Or the global economy, for that matter? And yes, it could be 5x this figure, no? What is the price of Netenyahu’s mouth (being shut)?
At the peak of the driving season this past summer, U.S. oil consumption averages about 20 Million barrels a day (yes, I know its dropped a little these past few years) but that is a good rule of thumb number. So a 5 dollar premium is about $100 million dollars a day for the U.S. economy; and an annual expense of about $36.5 Bn. And if you believe the analysts, the cost could be as much as 5 times these figures i.e. half a billion dollars a day or about $160 Billion a year.
If an attack never materializes, then Netenyahu will have both benefited the Iranian economy because higher oil prices in the end helps the IRI; and at the same time cost the U.S. economy billions of unnecessary dollars. This my friends is part of the “real” cost of having Israel as an ally!! All Israeli leaders have to do is open their mouths and you’re f**ked.So next time you go to the gas station – thank Netenyahu for the 10 cents or more you are paying for gas now; and then thank Netenyahu for assisting the IRI!
Netenyahu- patently – is an idiot. Hurting his friends (the U.S.), and helping his enemies (the IRI)! Oh and by the way, he’s f**king all those poor African countries too – that can barely pay for their oil imports….creating more poverty in the world, so he can retain his fragile coalition government in power in Israel. Because, we all know this is a stupid internal game he is playing – Israel has no real intentions of doing anything. It was always an absurd proposition. If you're going to do it (attack that is), the last thing you want to do is announce it years in advance. Surprise is a precious commodity in war.
Add to all this absurdity, Mr. Romney's plan to bring U.S. defense spending up to $2 trillion dollars. This is double what Bush spent at the height of the Iraq war! Obama, has slowly but surely brought it down from $900 Billion to $600 Billion over 4 years (and by the way, its still more money being spent on defense than the whole rest of the world put together). Clearly, Mr. Romney has bought into Mr. Netenyahu's vision of today and the future. As smart as Mr. Romney seems to be, he blindly folowing an idiot. Does Mr. Romney really think a $10 premium on oil, will push Obama out of office? Is that the game him and Bibi are playing?
Yes, Bibi is a selfish, careless, irresponsible idiot. That of course is no consolation to the family of the U.S. ambassador in Libya - killed by Israeli inspired riots and killers. That too, did not change the poll results in the U.S. - Misters Romney and Netenyahu.
So what is your next play? Everyone with any common sense knows who is behind it all.
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